Why We Shouldn't Be Too Concerned About Pablo Lopez's 5.45 ERA

Pablo López is coming off his best season to date--a season in which he finished in the top 10 in Cy Young Award voting and threw one of the most dazzling playoff starts in Minnesota Twins history, solidifying his status as one of the league’s elite pitchers. Over the past four seasons, López has consistently posted an ERA in the 3s, which has caused such an outlier season for him to raise so many eyebrows.

There is, however, substantial reason for optimism.

Last season, López experienced a similar pattern. Through his first 15 starts, he had an ERA of 4.40, yet his FIP was a much lower 3.47. This discrepancy indicated that López was pitching better than his ERA suggested, and indeed, the underlying metrics proved to be a better predictor of his performance. Over his final 17 starts, López posted a stellar 3.03 ERA, including a 2.00 ERA in August. 

This season, López's ERA of 5.45 is undoubtedly higher than we'd like to see, but once again, the underlying metrics tell a more encouraging story. His FIP is 1.30 points lower than his ERA, and as we look even further under the hood, there are even more promising figures. López currently boasts an xERA (Expected ERA) of 3.19, an xFIP (Expected FIP) of 3.43, and a SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA) of 3.31. These advanced metrics, which incorporate strikeouts and walks in addition to batted-ball data like exit velocity, suggest that López’s true performance level is much closer to what we’ve seen in previous seasons.

History has shown that pitchers with López's advanced metric profile tend to see their actual ERA regress toward their expected metrics, rather than having the opposite happen. As the season progresses, we should expect López’s ERA to align more closely with his xERA, xFIP, and SIERA. This regression toward a truer talent level is a common phenomenon in baseball, where luck eventually evens out.

And true talent is definitely something that Pablo López still possesses. López is still striking out batters at a 10+ K/9 clip; still throwing his fastball in the mid-90s; and still limiting hard contact, like he usually does. Just take a look at his Baseball Savant profile and you won’t see a pitcher whose ERA belongs in the 5s.

For Twins fans, now is the time to buy López stock. His track record, combined with his underlying metrics, strongly indicates that his current ERA is a blip on the radar, rather than a trend. López has the tools and talent to be a cornerstone of the Twins’ rotation, and as the season continues, we can expect to see his performance stabilize and improve.

Though it’s easy to get caught up in the worry of a high ERA, a deeper dive into López's statistics shows that there is reason for optimism. His advanced metrics paint the picture of a pitcher who is still performing at a high level, just waiting for the results to catch up. Obviously, the runs he's given up already are real, but we should expect him to surrender fewer going forward.

Do you still believe in Pablo López? Leave a comment below and start the conversation!