Minnesota Twins Prospect Tiers for the 2024 Trade Deadline

[Cody Christie]

In recent years, the Twins’ front office has used prospect depth to make multiple trades. Here’s a look at the team’s top 20 prospects and the different tiers into which each of them fit before the 2024 trade deadline.

Image courtesy of William Parmeter (Fort Myers photos), Ed Bailey (Wichita photos)

Many organizations value prospect depth to supplement a big-league roster and extend a team’s winning window. In recent years, the Twins front office has used some of the organization’s top prospects to trade for players like Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, and Jorge López. Obviously, some of those trades worked out well for the Twins, while others will live in infamy. Below is a tiered ranking of Twins Daily’s top 20 Twins prospects--with two players (Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson) being removed because they will shortly graduate from prospect lists. The team’s top prospects are divided into five tiers.

Tier 1: The Untouchables 
Walker Jenkins, Brooks Lee
The Twins probably aren’t trading either of these players. Both are among the game’s best prospects. Jenkins has a chance to be a superstar who will be the face of the Minnesota Twins for a decade or more. Lee doesn’t have as high of a ceiling, but he is close to impacting the big-league level. The Twins will probably need Lee in the second half, and may have already called him up if he weren’t injured to start the year. 

Tier 2: Only Available in Blockbusters 
Emmanuel Rodríguez, David Festa, Charlee Soto
The Twins will only include these prospects in a deal if they acquire a big name with multiple years of team control, or who can at least make a significant impact on their chances in a playoff series this fall. Rodríguez has missed time this year at Double-A, but remains a five-tool talent. Festa, like Lee, is already at Triple-A and looks big-league-ready. He will start games for the Twins in the second half, and is part of the team’s long-term starting rotation. Soto is far from the big leagues, but is an anomaly for this front office. They have rarely targeted high-school pitchers high in the draft, because of the volatility associated with this player type. Soto would only be included in a trade for controllable starting pitching, as the Twins did in the Chase Petty-for-Gray swap.

Tier 3: Rising Stock and Trade Bait 
Luke Keaschall, Brandon Winokur, Zebby Matthews
The Tier 3 players are the most likely to be traded out of the five tiers. Each of these prospects has seen their stock rise this season, which is something other organizations will prize. The Twins have tended to trade from this prospect type in the past, including Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and Cade Povich in the Mahle and López deals. Neither of those trades worked out in favor of the Twins, so maybe the front office should reconsider dealing out of this group. 

Tier 4: Dropping Stock 
Gabriel González, Marco Raya, Tanner Schobel, Cory Lewis, Connor Prielipp
For various reasons, these players have seen their stock drop slightly in 2024, which likely means the Twins will value them more than other teams will. González was acquired as the main trade piece in the Jorge Polanco deal. He’s missed time this season with a back strain, and has been limited to a .771 OPS when on the field. The Twins continue to be extremely careful with Raya, as he hasn’t thrown more than 60 pitches in an outing. He has a high ceiling, but it’s hard to envision him as a starter at the big-league level without being stretched out. 

Schobel destroyed High-A last season with a .859 OPS, but has seen a 225-point OPS drop after being promoted to Double-A. He must prove he can hit for consistent power against upper-minors pitching in order to restore his prospect status. Lewis spent the beginning of the year on the IL with a right shoulder impingement. It seems likely that other teams will be interested in him once he proves he is healthy. Prielipp has dealt with injuries for nearly his entire professional career, so it seems highly unlikely for him to be included in a trade of any consequence.

Tier 5: Supplemental Players to Sweeten a Deal 
Danny De Andrade, Yunior Severino, C.J. Culpepper, Ricardo Olivar
These four players are near the back end of Twins Daily’s Top 20 list, and can be added to a deal to increase the overall value. De Andrade missed time this season with an ankle injury, so he must show he is healthy. Severino was added to the team’s 40-man roster this winter, after leading the minor leagues in home runs last season. He has struggled this year with an OPS under .675, and his player type might not fit with the Twins' big-league roster.

Culpepper was a breakout prospect for the Twins last season, with a 3.56 ERA and 1.20 WHIP across 86 innings. He is also on the injured list with a right forearm strain, but he’s seen a slight uptick in his strikeout rate. Olivar posted a .855 OPS with Fort Myers last season and is hitting even better with Cedar Rapids in 2024. His ability to play catcher while posting power numbers makes him an intriguing trade target.

The Twins have a roughly average farm system, with a bit less in the way of high-quality depth than some organizations. Still, if they position themselves as buyers this summer, they have enough prospect capital to acquire some helpful players for a pennant race.

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Which players would you deem untouchable? Would you add any other tiers? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[MABB1959]

I want the Twins to keep top prospects but they seem to have a harder time getting them ready for the MLB.

[Patzky]

Something about Keaschall screams "keep me."

[Doctor Wu]

Don't be trading any pitching prospects. Period. 

[dogsday]

Why? Unless something changes dramatically, the Twins are as likely to be sellers as buyers, hoping some team sees marginal value in Farmer or Santana, or sees valuable unlocked potential in a Kirilloff, Larnach, Julien, etc.

It's probably just time to be patient and try to coach up and see if we have a pitching pipeline in Ryan, Ober, Festa, Matthews, Lewis et al, or just a pitching pipe dream. And ditto with the position players. Right now, the Twins are in an awkward, hard to watch middle ground.    

[Cory Engelhardt]

I have a really hard time, at the moment, keeping Festa over Zebby. Yes Festa has good stuff, but Zebby has the look more of a starter than Festa does. Unless Festa's command takes a huge spike up at some point, I still see a very good reliever when I see him. I'd love to be wrong. Zebby looks more like a starter, so I'd move him up a tier.

I also wouldn't be itching to trade Keaschall either. That contact rate is really hard to ignore.

My top tier would be close to the same, but I'd listen on Lee depending on the move.

[Fatbat]

This summers draft could be lights out with the balanced pick position and comp picks. A deep successful draft will likely add to 3-4 of these tiers. 
Being buyers in august is definitely possible because 7 teams are chasing us to get into the October show.  Getting a controllable MLB pitcher that is lights out should be goal #1.  
Selling underperforming vet(s) should also be considered! We need to bring up or in someone that will kickstart the offense. 
With one or two call ups or trades, this season could take an immediate turn towards a deep playoff run!

[Brandon27]

E-ROD should be on the list untouchable 

[Jeff K]

42 minutes ago, dogsday said:

Why? Unless something changes dramatically, the Twins are as likely to be sellers as buyers, hoping some team sees marginal value in Farmer or Santana, or sees valuable unlocked potential in a Kirilloff, Larnach, Julien, etc.

It's probably just time to be patient and try to coach up and see if we have a pitching pipeline in Ryan, Ober, Festa, Matthews, Lewis et al, or just a pitching pipe dream. And ditto with the position players. Right now, the Twins are in an awkward, hard to watch middle ground.    

I fully agree with you.  I think the Twins can make the playoffs, but they have too many holes to go deep.  Don't trade any future major leaguer(s) to make a push when it's most unlikely that they can get past the Yankees, Guardians, or Orioles.

[twinfan]

It's difficult to determine just how good these prospects/suspects are since so many are injured. I'd hate to give up someone who could be helpful later on for a rental to chase a pipe dream. Are we gonna be better than the O's or Yanks this year? If we get hot and get to the WS, can we compete with the Dodgers, Braves or even Padres? It would be nice to see but it's not likely to happen.

[Cory Engelhardt]

5 minutes ago, twinfan said:

It's difficult to determine just how good these prospects/suspects are since so many are injured. I'd hate to give up someone who could be helpful later on for a rental to chase a pipe dream. Are we gonna be better than the O's or Yanks this year? If we get hot and get to the WS, can we compete with the Dodgers, Braves or even Padres? It would be nice to see but it's not likely to happen.

Just saying, I don't subscribe to this defeatist mentality. If we have the chance to be in the playoffs, anything can happen.

I certainly hope they attempt to add before the deadline, and the goal every year SHOULD be to be playing your best come September/October.

[saviking]

You might want to double-check. I'm pretty sure Connor Prielipp's right arm has completely fallen off.

[DaveW44]

I wouldn’t trade anyone in tier 1 or 2 (or maybe even 3) this year.  We have way too many holes to make a run. Anyone we bring in would just more us from average to pretty good. I’d rather sell (Santana, Margot, etc) and bring up some kids to see what they do. 

[DaveW44]

4 minutes ago, saviking said:

You might want to double-check. I'm pretty sure Connor Prielipp's right arm has completely fallen off.

Centerino as well. Been in the system like 5 years now- does he have 100 innings pitched yet? 
 

[Cory Engelhardt]

5 minutes ago, saviking said:

You might want to double-check. I'm pretty sure Connor Prielipp's right arm has completely fallen off.

Good thing it's not his left arm :)

[strumdatjag]

The Twins at this time need to protect Jair Cammargo and any other catcher with a pulse.   There is a lack of available depth at this position. Christian Vasquez is not producing and an injury to Ryan Jeffers would put the team in a bad position.  

[DJL44]

41 minutes ago, Brandon27 said:

E-ROD should be on the list untouchable 

I would swap him with Lee. With Kepler leaving the Twins need Emmanuel Rodriguez more than they need SS/3B Lee who is blocked by Correa and Lewis. That said, there are no untouchables, just different levels of unlikely. This team shouldn't be buying much at the deadline which means the top 3 tiers are all unlikely to be traded.

[arby58]

2 hours ago, MABB1959 said:

I want the Twins to keep top prospects but they seem to have a harder time getting them ready for the MLB.

Last year they had three rookies play major roles and a couple others were supporting cast. This year SWR is having a big impact, and Martin has had some moments. My guess is Lee and Festa will play a role in the second half. That doesn’t sound too bad in terms of MLB readiness.

[LambchoP]

I don't think they'll go all in as buyers or sellers. Probably try to dump some expiring contracts while picking up a bullpen arm or two. Although I'd like to see a solid starter with control added like Luzardo or Crochet.

[saviking]

2 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Good thing it's not his left arm :)

Got me on that one. lol

[tony&rodney]

10 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Just saying, I don't subscribe to this defeatist mentality. If we have the chance to be in the playoffs, anything can happen.

I certainly hope they attempt to add before the deadline, and the goal every year SHOULD be to be playing your best come September/October.

Agree completely with this sentiment. MLB is a super competitive and balanced league for the most part. The best teams (Yankees, Phillies, Dodgers, Braves, Orioles) will win the most games during the long season but the nature of the playoffs make it possible to have a Rangers versus Diamondbacks World Series.

Opinions vary on this sight about the ability or willingness for the Twins to add salary. There are always opportunities to make trades though. It will be interesting to see how many games the team can gain in their schedule up to the All Star Game and then how the Twins play in their first five games versus the Brewers and Phillies immediately after the break. These may be the indicators of whether the team makes some trades.

The Twins have likely determined that Walker Jenkins is untouchable, similar to their past views on Buxton and Lewis. I would not be surprised at all by a trade that included either Lee or Soto. Emmanuel Rodriguez probably causes the most disagreement among discussions within the organization because he seemingly gets better and more dominant as he moves up each level but also still has warts in his game. It has been odd how AA pitchers basically refuse to pitch to him.

I vote to keep David Festa and Zeb Matthews at this time. as well as Luke Keaschall. It isn't totally clear where these three are headed but they all look pretty good.

[nicksaviking]

57 minutes ago, Brandon27 said:

E-ROD should be on the list untouchable 

I wouldn't have an 'untouchable' tier, but he'd be ahead of Lee for me. Possibly by quite a bit. His offensive ceiling is just so much higher from the looks of it. I'm also excited for Jenkins, but Rodriguez is doing exactly what we can only hope Jenkins will be doing.

I know people give Lee extra points for playing SS, but barring injury, he won't be playing there at the majors. Meanwhile Rodriguez has a clear path to CF. And again, that offense. His production trajectory through the age 21 season, including the improving strikeout and batted ball numbers looks like Gunnar Henderson's. Except for Rodriguez's vastly superior on base skills.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I think they will/should be open to adding a right handed hitter who can be 1b/corner outfield with some pop. I like Miranda's season so far, but they need one more option that can fill in somewhere.

I also think they should be open to a starting pitcher. I don't know if that means Luzardo, but he would be awesome here.

After that, I could also see moving off some veterans. It wouldn't be "selling" per se, but that makes sense to me too.

 

 

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, dogsday said:

It's probably just time to be patient and try to coach up and see if we have a pitching pipeline in Ryan, Ober, Festa, Matthews, Lewis et al, or just a pitching pipe dream. And ditto with the position players. Right now, the Twins are in an awkward, hard to watch middle ground.    

Patient? How long has this front office been here? I get not trading just to trade or giving up top tier assets for rentals. but most of the best players the Twins have, have been acquired though trades, they haven't been great at developing players. (don't get me wrong their have been a few)

[tony&rodney]

2 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I think they will/should be open to adding a right handed hitter who can be 1b/corner outfield with some pop. I like Miranda's season so far, but they need one more option that can fill in somewhere.

I also think they should be open to a starting pitcher. I don't know if that means Luzardo, but he would be awesome here.

After that, I could also see moving off some veterans. It wouldn't be "selling" per se, but that makes sense to me too.

 

 

The team sure could use a reliable performer in LF/1B/DH but other than a breakout from someone already in the organization I cannot think of who is available at a salary and prospect cost the Twins would see as amenable.

Luzardo would be a nice addition. His salary may be doable now but can the team absorb his rising costs? Lee and Soto should be enough to haul in Luzardo.

Are there any teams who are willing to take on a veteran from the current roster or do the Twins just swallow those contracts? Gallo was held until the end (never was released during the season).

[Cory Engelhardt]

24 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The team sure could use a reliable performer in LF/1B/DH but other than a breakout from someone already in the organization I cannot think of who is available at a salary and prospect cost the Twins would see as amenable.

Luzardo would be a nice addition. His salary may be doable now but can the team absorb his rising costs? Lee and Soto should be enough to haul in Luzardo.

Are there any teams who are willing to take on a veteran from the current roster or do the Twins just swallow those contracts? Gallo was held until the end (never was released during the season).

Their salary overall isn't that bad. Plus with (probably) Kepler and Farmer and Margot and Vazquez and Santana (among others) all leaving after the year, some of this can be looked at to add salary too. 

Especially if they add a hitter who is signed through only this year, that's not hard to add.

I'm NOT saying they will add Pete Alonso, but he is a free agent after the year, and his remaining salary for 2024 would be under 5 or 6 million by the deadline. That's not a huge dollar amount.

We'll see.

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, Brandon27 said:

E-ROD should be on the list untouchable 

When you look at what they accomplished/ upside depending how much you favor one over the other is very close. IMO Emma, Lee & Jenkins are untouchable. 

[Doctor Gast]

Keaschall is no doubt a good hitter but there's a glut at 2B with pseudo-SSs, and INFers that don't have a great glove, but a good bat. Any with a good glove along with a good bat will have preference. Like Spencer he's expendable. Priority should be Gonzales, who is still ranked high but will drop hard & fast.

With the addition of Santana & Margot, it's really difficult to evaluate what we have in the superior in-house players. With inconsistency in the BP, rotation & lineup, it's too early to see if all 3 areas will gel or not, to find out whether we need a top-end SP or stand pat.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

I would swap him with Lee. With Kepler leaving the Twins need Emmanuel Rodriguez more than they need SS/3B Lee who is blocked by Correa and Lewis. That said, there are no untouchables, just different levels of unlikely. This team shouldn't be buying much at the deadline which means the top 3 tiers are all unlikely to be traded.

Agreed.

[Mike Sixel]

No way I deal either OF this year. Lee? He's basically CC and Lewis insurance. What is that worth? Is that worth a controllable pitcher (would cost more than him)? I think it is. 

I'm happy to give up pitching prospects if I get more than two years of control of a very good SP....