Minnesota Twins Prospect Tiers for the 2024 Trade Deadline

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I think they will/should be open to adding a right handed hitter who can be 1b/corner outfield with some pop. I like Miranda's season so far, but they need one more option that can fill in somewhere.

I think they need a LH bat who can be 1B/corner OF with some pop. Santana and Miranda should be enough from the RH side and Margot has been doing the job lately as well.

[Cory Engelhardt]

9 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Keaschall is no doubt a good hitter but there's a glut at 2B with pseudo-SSs, and INFers that don't have a great glove, but a good bat. Any with a good glove along with a good bat will have preference. Like Spencer he's expendable. Priority should be Gonzales, who is still ranked high but will drop hard & fast.

With the addition of Santana & Margot, it's really difficult to evaluate what we have in the superior in-house players. With inconsistency in the BP, rotation & lineup, it's too early to see if all 3 areas will gel or not, to find out whether we need a top-end SP or stand pat.

Keaschall to me is absolutely in number of players who could be an outfield option too, in my opinion

[Guest]

I'm tired of trading prospects for suspects.  First, our track records speaks for itself.  Second, the team's biggest problem is coaching up the top prospects in MLB/AAA.  The second issue won't be solved by trading top prospects, and the fact we might trade top prospects suggests we need to replace our coaches first.

[LA Vikes Fan]

2 hours ago, Jeff K said:

I fully agree with you.  I think the Twins can make the playoffs, but they have too many holes to go deep.  Don't trade any future major leaguer(s) to make a push when it's most unlikely that they can get past the Yankees, Guardians, or Orioles.

Agreed. Whatever we do, don't trade for a two month rental player. That player isn't going to make us a WS contender this year unless Aaron Judge is available. We should only consider trading for guys with control or a reasonable contract through at least 2025.

That makes the choices actually fairly simple. We need another starter and a middle of the order bat. The available starters that are any good (at least this year) and fit this criteria are Jesus Luzardo (2.5 years of control), Tyler Anderson  ($13m for 2024 and 2025, prorated for rest of 2024), Garrett Crochet (800K in 2024, arb eligible 2025 and 2026), Zach Littell (1.85M 2024, arb eligible 2025), and Erick Fedde ($7.5m/year 2024 and 2025, prorated for rest of 2024). I think we can assume the White Sox either won't trade with us or will ask for the moon, and Littell is just back of the rotation filler, so really the options are Luzardo and Anderson.  

On the bat side, the pickings are even slimmer for controllable players. It really boils down to Taylor Ward (.247/.324/.431(.753), 11 HRs, arb through 2026), Luis Rengifo (.316/.367/.448(.815), arb thru 2025), Jazz Chisholm (.249/.316/.429(.745), can play CF, arb through 2026), and Lane Thomas (.218/.285/.338(.623), arb through 2025).   There is one rental bat that might be available and not cost too much - Jesse WInker. He's slashing .261/.375/.396 (.771). He's on a one year $2m contract. I would trade a non-pitcher Tier 4 or 5 guy for him. Pete Alonso sounds good until you realize that his contract is $20.5m AND he intends to return to the NY Mets after the season if they trade him. He will also cost a lot in prospects since the teams that think they are really close to WS contention will come after him. Not worth it.   

I would love to see us go to Miami for Luzardo or to the Angels for Anderson and Rengifo, would take Ward instead of Rengifo if necessary since he can play LF. Getting Rengifo really helps at 2B but then we have the issue of what we do we do with Julien and Lee. 

I would be willing to trade a Tier 2 and Tier 4 player for Luzardo - maybe Festa and Gonzalez plus an A ball guy not Soto.  As for Anderson PLUS either Rengifo or Ward, a 3 and a 4 or two 3s depending on which one you get - Something like Keschall, Raya, and filler or Raya, Gonzalez, and Schobel. Have to assume that at least one of the traded players will be a pitcher. You almost always have to trade pitching to get pitching.  

[Fatbat]

31 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Keaschall is no doubt a good hitter but there's a glut at 2B with pseudo-SSs, and INFers that don't have a great glove, but a good bat. Any with a good glove along with a good bat will have preference. Like Spencer he's expendable. Priority should be Gonzales, who is still ranked high but will drop hard & fast.

With the addition of Santana & Margot, it's really difficult to evaluate what we have in the superior in-house players. With inconsistency in the BP, rotation & lineup, it's too early to see if all 3 areas will gel or not, to find out whether we need a top-end SP or stand pat.

I would dump farmer, Santana, Margo after this season and go young with all 3 of those positions in 2025 unless the FO gets the green light on signing a $24+M perennial allstar to cover one of them.  Id rather see Emma, Lee and some other young guy get his shot at MLB!

[Doctor Gast]

2 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

I would dump farmer, Santana, Margo after this season and go young with all 3 of those positions in 2025 unless the FO gets the green light on signing a $24+M perennial allstar to cover one of them.  Id rather see Emma, Lee and some other young guy get his shot at MLB!

I wouldn't wait for next year

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, dogsday said:

...It's probably just time to be patient and try to coach up and see if we have a pitching pipeline in Ryan, Ober, Festa, Matthews, Lewis et al, or just a pitching pipe dream...

I don't see how pipelines would include veteran players. Ryan and Ober are both arb eligible next year so their team control is already starting to tick down.

Festa's scuffling in AAA again this year with a 4.45 ERA over his past 7 starts with 3 of those not even getting through 5 frames. That doesn't project well. Zebby Matthews could be something with Andrew Morris climbing the ladder into a mid ranged prospect.

It's been 7.5 years for Falvey to show his MiLB development team can produce starters, and Ober is the sole success story with SWR potentially paying off now, too. Falvey's on a very hot seat this year. He'll either see the Twins push into the playoffs or he'll be finding a new job.
 

[bean5302]

The "untouchables" is an interesting concept. It means the team is so dependent on those players, they cannot be traded to improve the current team.

To me, Jenkins is untouchable because his value has utterly tanked due to injury and performance in Single A ball this year. His ETA is 2026 at the earliest, but probably no significant play time until 2027.

Brooks Lee, I'd be happy to trade if another team believed in him to the point he brought back part of a blockbuster deal, but people around here dramatically overvalue him. SSSS, but he certainly hasn't started hot in AAA, which is a level he couldn't hold his own at last year, either. He's a fringy shortstop with limited athleticism, without a ton of game power, who's proven so far to be weak as a RHB. Teams aren't falling over themselves to get a player like that in general. His draft position, and quick rise in the minors facilitated his spike in value... the same way Austin Martin rose up ranks right away.

I'd really hate for the Twins to deal Rodriguez because there's a screaming loud, long term need for an outfielder who projects as a starter who can cover CF.

Further down the list, there aren't any guys who could front line a truly high value acquisition.

[MABB1959]

2 hours ago, arby58 said:

This year SWR is having a big impact, and Martin has had some moments

I keep thinking of them as trades.  SWR is getting exciting.  Austin Martin ho-hum so far but still excited.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, bean5302 said:

The "untouchables" is an interesting concept. It means the team is so dependent on those players, they cannot be traded to improve the current team.

To me, Jenkins is untouchable because his value has utterly tanked due to injury and performance in Single A ball this year. His ETA is 2026 at the earliest, but probably no significant play time until 2027.

Brooks Lee, I'd be happy to trade if another team believed in him to the point he brought back part of a blockbuster deal, but people around here dramatically overvalue him. SSSS, but he certainly hasn't started hot in AAA, which is a level he couldn't hold his own at last year, either. He's a fringy shortstop with limited athleticism, without a ton of game power, who's proven so far to be weak as a RHB. Teams aren't falling over themselves to get a player like that in general. His draft position, and quick rise in the minors facilitated his spike in value... the same way Austin Martin rose up ranks right away.

I'd really hate for the Twins to deal Rodriguez because there's a screaming loud, long term need for an outfielder who projects as a starter who can cover CF.

Further down the list, there aren't any guys who could front line a truly high value acquisition.

Jenkins is a consensus top 10 prospect, I don't think his value has tanked at all.....not even a little. 

An aggressive team would move him to AA in July of this year, and to MN in 2025....if he's successful in AA this year. Your timelines are very conservative for a guy ranked this highly. 

I can't see any way they deal Emma at this point. I think he'd be in MN if he could stop getting hurt. 

[4twinsJA]

You have to trade something of value to get something of value. I would be in favor of a Gray like trade. Going to have to part with a potential good MLB player to get a top to mid rotation type pitcher.

[Seth Stohs]

My thoughts: 

1.) Jenkins is the only truly untouchable (unless you get the Yankees to send Judge and Cole while eating the remainders of their contracts). 
2.) Lee could be a part of getting you an ace-like pitcher. I think he's expendable, but I think Lee, E-Rod, Festa, Soto, Morris and Zebby all fit into that category at this point. Unless you get a controllable Ace, I'm not dealing any of them. 
3.) Raya is pretty close to that same level. 
4.) I'm not dealing Winokur at this point either. Or Keaschall. Again, unless overwhelmed. 
5.) DeAndrade is a legit shortstop prospect. Olivar is a very legit catching prospect. Those two could get a very nice return, but from the Twins perspective, they should feel a clear winner in any trade involving these two. 
6.) Nature of pitching, but I wouldn't deal Lewis, Prielipp or Culpepper (or Kyle Jones) when they're hurt or returning from being hurt. You won't get anything for four guys who do have big-league potential. I'd much rather get them healthy and see what you can get from them

[Fatbat]

Jenkins has lost zero trade value because of a miner injury. He hasn’t even lost much development time because he is still 19 yo.  He will be in the show as a twin in 2026. 21 yo ROY.

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, Seth Stohs said:

My thoughts: 

1.) Jenkins is the only truly untouchable (unless you get the Yankees to send Judge and Cole while eating the remainders of their contracts). 
2.) Lee could be a part of getting you an ace-like pitcher. I think he's expendable, but I think Lee, E-Rod, Festa, Soto, Morris and Zebby all fit into that category at this point. Unless you get a controllable Ace, I'm not dealing any of them. 
3.) Raya is pretty close to that same level. 
4.) I'm not dealing Winokur at this point either. Or Keaschall. Again, unless overwhelmed. 
5.) DeAndrade is a legit shortstop prospect. Olivar is a very legit catching prospect. Those two could get a very nice return, but from the Twins perspective, they should feel a clear winner in any trade involving these two. 
6.) Nature of pitching, but I wouldn't deal Lewis, Prielipp or Culpepper (or Kyle Jones) when they're hurt or returning from being hurt. You won't get anything for four guys who do have big-league potential. I'd much rather get them healthy and see what you can get from them

4. I have no idea why Winokur is on this list at all. 

5. DeAndrade is on my no trade list, unless the return is great. He's a legit SS prospect.

6. Ya, if they could get a doughnut for Prielipp at this point, I'd take it. 

[DJL44]

52 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Agreed. Whatever we do, don't trade for a two month rental player. That player isn't going to make us a WS contender this year unless Aaron Judge is available. We should only consider trading for guys with control or a reasonable contract through at least 2025.

That makes the choices actually fairly simple. We need another starter and a middle of the order bat. 

I think they need to get the bat more than the starting pitcher. Bats are cheaper as rentals than starting pitchers which means I'd be happy to obtain a rental bat. JD Martinez is just a DH at this point in his career but he's a lot better than what the Twins have been using at DH.

Brandon Belt is still waiting for a contract after absolutely destroying RHP last season.

[twinstalker]

3 hours ago, Brandon27 said:

E-ROD should be on the list untouchable 

Not.

Zebby should, though.  Seriously, we think the Twins would trade Zebby before Festa or Soto?  That's ridiculous.  Not that we're going to trade Festa...it's an absolute need to have someone who can start a game right now, and he's one of two.

But Zebby is crushing like few we've seen in all of baseball, much less the Twins.  He's older, but it's not that important for pitchers, plus I have very little doubt he'd be crushing AAA right now.

Soto is nothing but a lottery ticket and is potential trade bait, though hopefully the FO is tired of getting completely destroyed on trades and will stop trading with smart teams.

[Fatbat]

8 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

4. I have no idea why Winokur is on this list at all. 

5. DeAndrade is on my no trade list, unless the return is great. He's a legit SS prospect.

6. Ya, if they could get a doughnut for Prielipp at this point, I'd take it. 

The biggest negative to Winokers game is his K rate.  When he fixes that, he will be a top 100 MLB prospect. 

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Fatbat said:

The biggest negative to Winokers game is his K rate.  When he fixes that, he will be a top 100 MLB prospect. 

sure, but that hardly makes him untouchable....as Seth implied. It's not like he's ahead of a bunch of guys either....

[Fatbat]

3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

sure, but that hardly makes him untouchable....as Seth implied. It's not like he's ahead of a bunch of guys either....

True. He is only untouchable to the degree that he has massive upside and is raw.  There is definitely a price for him but I doubt anyone would be willing to pay it this year.  He has as much flame out possibility as perennial allstar. 

[LonelyseatinMOA]

5 hours ago, dogsday said:

Why? Unless something changes dramatically, the Twins are as likely to be sellers as buyers, hoping some team sees marginal value in Farmer or Santana, or sees valuable unlocked potential in a Kirilloff, Larnach, Julien, etc.

It's probably just time to be patient and try to coach up and see if we have a pitching pipeline in Ryan, Ober, Festa, Matthews, Lewis et al, or just a pitching pipe dream. And ditto with the position players. Right now, the Twins are in an awkward, hard to watch middle ground.    

The Twins are one of 11 teams this year with a winning record. I know they look like a middling team but the offensive environment is down this year, they are not as bad as they look and are currently a wild card team with a relatively easy schedule in front of them. So respectfully I disagree, I don't think they are just as likely to be sellers as buyers. 

A few key injuries and some continued underperformance in this next stretch of series then yes I'd agree but not at this moment 

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Jenkins is a consensus top 10 prospect, I don't think his value has tanked at all.....not even a little. 

An aggressive team would move him to AA in July of this year, and to MN in 2025....if he's successful in AA this year. Your timelines are very conservative for a guy ranked this highly. 

I can't see any way they deal Emma at this point. I think he'd be in MN if he could stop getting hurt. 

Jenkins isn't hitting particularly well in Single A this year, though the sample size is small. Might want to see him play well for 100+ plate appearances before thinking about High A, let alone AA...

[bigdave]

6 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I have a really hard time, at the moment, keeping Festa over Zebby. Yes Festa has good stuff, but Zebby has the look more of a starter than Festa does. Unless Festa's command takes a huge spike up at some point, I still see a very good reliever when I see him. I'd love to be wrong. Zebby looks more like a starter, so I'd move him up a tier.

I also wouldn't be itching to trade Keaschall either. That contact rate is really hard to ignore.

My top tier would be close to the same, but I'd listen on Lee depending on the move.

I agree on Zebby over Festa. Watched one of Festa's starts in St. Paul. He wasn't blazing anything past the opposing hitters and his other pitches weren't wowing anybody either.

[DJL44]

I think the Twins are still hoping that Matt Wallner is their big bat and Pablo Lopez is their ace pitcher.

[GNess]

Is it possible that Lee is. more than a high floor prospect? The dude can hit.

[dogsday]

4 hours ago, LonelyseatinMOA said:

The Twins are one of 11 teams this year with a winning record. I know they look like a middling team but the offensive environment is down this year, they are not as bad as they look and are currently a wild card team with a relatively easy schedule in front of them. So respectfully I disagree, I don't think they are just as likely to be sellers as buyers. 

A few key injuries and some continued underperformance in this next stretch of series then yes I'd agree but not at this moment 

I assumed the OP was about trading prospects to get to the playoffs (which may not be true) and I was reacting to that. If there is a trade that will improve the team, sure make it. But trades are as much a crap shoot as prospects (especially if you don;'t have the payroll to buy again if you miss). The Twins currently rank 9th (out of 30) in OPS and 14th in WHIP. If they make the playoffs, the simple odds they get to the WS are 16% and change. But the real odds? Again, if you can improve the team (not just for this season) by making a trade, that's a good thing. But if you are weakening the team long term to get to the playoffs this year? Given the team we are seeing, I was saying I would stick with the prospects for this year and work on the improving the development system.

[chpettit19]

9 hours ago, bean5302 said:

To me, Jenkins is untouchable because his value has utterly tanked due to injury and performance in Single A ball this year. His ETA is 2026 at the earliest, but probably no significant play time until 2027.
 

23 PAs "utterly tanked" his value? Come on. He has a 110 wRC+. Not the best ever, but even in a completely useless sample size he's doing just fine. Suggesting the #5 pick from last year who's widely considered an elite prospect has "utterly tanked" his value after 6 A ball games feels awfully aggressive.

[DocBauer]

I'd have Matthews on the no trade list for sure. 

I think the Twins biggest downfall this season has been the offense. It's just been too inconsistent, like it was this time last year. The biggest holes are, currently, LF, 2B, and DH. And there are some issues with CF and RH at the moment.

Lee gets going, and/or Julien gets his act together, suddenly 2B is taken care of. And BOTH might be part of a 2nd half offensive surge.

Larnach has been pretty good and might have finally figured things out. Castro is also solid for LF. If Wallner is ready soon to be the Wallner we've seen, or close to it, LF looks pretty good.

DH can be Miranda, Larnach, and almost anyone taking a half day off. LF getting better helps the DH spot.

Kepler getting hot again...which I suspect will happen...and Buxton showing SOMETHING really gets the lineup going.

I just don't know who's out there for an inexpensive rental that's better than what's on hand IF even a couple of the younger bats on hand just get going, along with Kepler and Buck. I'm not really interested in paying much for a rental bat. Maybe a couple lower prospects to a rebuilding team? 

I agree with the sentiment you make the playoffs and see what happens! You try to augment your needs to give you the best chance to compete. IMO, I'd be interested in a LH arm unless Thielbar suddenly gets right, and/or a RH arm if Stewart won't be fully available. I know Varland is an enticing option to end the season in the pen, but I'd feel more comfortable with a RH arm just in case Stewart has continued issues.

Unfortunately, mid season trades haven't been very good for this FO. Offseason trades have been much, much better. I'm just not interested in moving ANY top prospects at the deadline unless there's just a great opportunity for someone young and controllable. 

I'm looking at a pen arm, maybe two, and I'd only consider a rental bat if it comes cheap. This team is good, but not playing/performing up to expectation. But I also see too many solid options available that could "click" over the next month or so to jump start the offense that might be as good as most any rental they might pick up. I'm just saying, do I trade prospects to get a "7" player when I've got guys on hand that might be a "6" or even "7" if they just get their game together?

Maybe I'm too conservative when I look at the current team and the talent on hand. But that's where I'm sitting right now.

[jorgenswest]

In striving to “touch em all” again, they might need to go into the deadline letting other teams know that they can “touch em all” for the right price.

[bean5302]

12 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

23 PAs "utterly tanked" his value? Come on. He has a 110 wRC+. Not the best ever, but even in a completely useless sample size he's doing just fine. Suggesting the #5 pick from last year who's widely considered an elite prospect has "utterly tanked" his value after 6 A ball games feels awfully aggressive.

Fair enough. Re-reading that seemed awfully harsh on my part. It's definitely reduced his value already, though. If Jenkins doesn't return to form before the All Star break, it will have a very measurable impact. Probably 30-40% of his trade value.

[Rigby]

On 6/11/2024 at 1:12 PM, Fatbat said:

Jenkins has lost zero trade value because of a miner injury. 

Yeah, I believe it was the canary that was terminal...