Could Max Kepler Receive a Qualifying Offer?

[Greggory Masterson]

At this time last year, it would be unthinkable. You’d be laughed out of the room for even suggesting such an idea. But Max Kepler is making a case for a qualifying offer from the Twins this offseason.

Image courtesy of © Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

Max Kepler's OPS is 100 points above the anemic league average, and he’s playing his standard plus defense in right field. Kepler has continued the hot stretch that started in the second half of 2023, and there’s an argument that he should receive an offer from the Twins of over $20 million to play right field next year. Let’s break down that argument, in four parts.

What is a Qualifying Offer?
Let’s start with the technical mumbo-jumbo. A qualifying offer (QO) is a measure put in place to give teams a bit of a cushion when a top player is hitting free agency. Any team about to lose a player who has been on the team for a full year can extend a QO to the player on the way out, as long as he has not previously received one.

The amount of that offer is set each year as the average of the top 125 salaries the previous year. It’d be safe to assume that this fall's number would be around $21 million. 

If an impending free agent is offered a QO, they have a decision: accept it—and return to the team for one year—or decline it and hit free agency. However, there’s a catch. If they do hit free agency, there will be compensation attached to them. The signing team will lose a draft pick, at minimum. The former team receives a compensatory draft pick after the first, second, or fourth rounds. Sonny Gray rejected the QO this offseason, and the Twins have the 33rd pick in the draft to show for it.

How Well Does Kepler Need to Play to Earn a Qualifying Offer?
That’s the (20-)million-dollar question.

Kepler is playing at an All-Star level—and has been since July of last year. However, he’s been a slightly above-average bat at an offense-heavy position, with borderline Gold Glove defense for his career. That doesn’t scream star—more of a solid regular. He’s had two very good seasons—2019 and 2023—and he’s off to a promising start in 2024.

It's hard to justify $21 million to a player for that. On the other hand, though, he’s playing the best baseball of his 10-year career right now, and that should be considered, given that it’s not a long-term deal; it’d just be for 2025.

So, let’s consider some comparable recent cases. Cody Bellinger, coming off two miserable seasons, rebounded with the Cubs in 2023 and earned himself a QO. He has hit about 15% worse than Kepler has, but he plays a good center field. Bellinger also has a better pedigree (as a former MVP), and he’s 28—three years younger than Kepler.

Bellinger is the kind of player you’d expect to earn a QO. However, Joc Pederson (2023), Brandon Nimmo (2022), and Michael Conforto (2021), each non-elite outfielders, received QOs. None had an OPS+ as high as Kepler’s has been over his last 100 games, though Nimmo (.800 OPS, 130 OPS+ in 2022) was a center fielder at that time.

The best match is probably Pederson—a largely platooned lefty corner outfielder with an .874 OPS (146 OPS+) in 2022 for the Giants. Kepler has an .834 OPS (130 OPS+) over the past two seasons combined, but that includes his awful start to the 2023 season (a .688 OPS in the first half). If Kepler continues to hit like he has this season (.912 OPS, 158 OPS+), he would outpace Pederson considerably—but he could always regress, as well.

There’s also the matter of team need. It’s why the Twins extended Jake Odorizzi the QO in 2019—they needed to solidify the rotation and were willing to overpay for a one-year deal.

The Twins certainly have possible in-house Kepler replacements, like Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff, and Emmanuel Rodríguez. However, the first three have yet to prove themselves over the past several years, and Rodriguez is still in Double-A. The Twins may need one more year of Kepler.

Would Kepler Accept the Qualifying Offer?
Here’s the second step. There are a few things at work with this one. Kepler is heading into his age-32 season next year. Because he signed an ownership-friendly deal in 2019, he’s played for the Twins for 10 seasons. He might be focused on maximizing his own dollars this time around. A QO stands in the way of that. There’s a lot of time between accepting the QO and hitting free agency unfettered--an entire year of knowing you have to stay healthy and that each slump could be a $10-million problem.

He is around the point that he could be looking for his last contract. A 33-year-old commands less money; his best years are already behind him. It might not seem like a lot, but the difference between hitting the market at 32 and 33 is significant. A player in Kepler’s shoes may prefer even Andrew Benintendi’s five-year, $75 million ($15 million per year) deal over the richer 2025 and the subsequent stress of finding the long-term deal next year.

However, he may also value that money now. He might be confident that he can command more money next year without the attached draft pick compensation. He might like Minnesota. Who knows? The truth is, though, few players ever accept the QO. Only 13 of the 131 players who received the QO since 2012 have accepted it.

Notably, Kepler’s best recent comp—Joc Pederson—did accept his.

Can the Twins Afford It?
Yeah, okay, here’s the elephant in the room. Maybe “Can they?” isn’t the right question—it’s more like “Will they?”

Heading into 2024, the Twins cut $30 million in payroll. Given comments from ownership (and using the term “rightsizing”), fans probably shouldn’t expect a significant increase going into next season. I didn’t say that’s a good thing—it’s the reality.

Payroll is already poised to be a problem, even without a $20-million right fielder. Check out Peter Labuza’s discussion of next year’s payroll. The short version is that players like Carlos Correa and Pablo López are hitting the high points of their contracts, while prominent players like Royce Lewis, Joe Ryan, and Ryan Jeffers will see raises in arbitration. Payroll may be higher next season than this season, before the first addition is even made. That doesn’t include Kepler’s return, at $21 million.

A Kepler-accepted QO may make a considerable dent in the Twin's plans. Teams never (at least on record) offer the QO in the hopes that the player declines. And Kepler isn’t a no-doubt decline candidate, unlike Shohei Ohtani (2023) or Aaron Judge (2022). If they offer it, they accept the possibility that he’s back, and for the big bucks.

You may be thinking to yourself that Kepler could then become trade bait. However, that’s not an option, either (I think). Under the 2012-2016 collective bargaining agreement, players who accepted the QO could not be traded until after June 15, and there were limits on the amount of cash that could go back to the team—essentially preventing a team from trading a player they did not anticipate accepting the offer.

In updates to the system under the 2017 collective bargaining agreement, alterations to that trade timeframe are not mentioned. In line with this, only two players who accepted the QO were ever traded. Jeremy Hellickson (July 28, 2017) and Neil Walker (August 12, 2017) were both traded after June 15 in the year they accepted the offer.

Trading Kepler after the fact, then, is really not an option. Kepler can only get the QO if the team is actually ready to spend the money it represents.

So, will the Twins be allowed to spend the money associated with Kepler returning? Well…

View full article

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Interesting question. However even though Max has been with the Twins a loooong time, it is too early in this relationship for the Twins to "pop the question" to Max.  Let's re-visit this question after the 2024 World Series ends. 

[tony&rodney]

I don't believe the Twins will put the QO on Max and we should expect Kepler to sign with a team on the West Coast. Enjoy Max this year because he is in his final year playing for the Twins.

[weneedneshek]

If he keeps up this stellar start he will be signing for more dollars elsewhere. This past offseason makes that crystal clear. We likely will extend the QO though and get a draft pick for our troubles

[Road trip]

Should they?  Yes, assuming Kepler finishes a solid year.  Sometimes you have to be willing to "spend money to make money".  Possible outcomes/options:

A. Losing Kepler as a FA without the qualifying offer is just that, a net loss in team assets.

B. Losing Kepler as a FA after making a qualifying offer is basically neutral, and clearly positive to option A, as the draft pick has a value that *might* eventually offset the loss of Kepler.  

C. If the offer is accepted, keeping Kepler for 20ish million may seem like a bit of an overpay, but is still likely preferable to option A.  The Twins have frequently paid players in the 5-10mil range that frankly were just not good or were injury prone.  Might as well double the amount and get a reasonably sure thing.

D. Not discussed (and extremely unlikely) would be signing Kepler to a longer deal.  He's likely too old and expensive, with the next generation of outfielders likely ready by 2026.

Will they make the qualifying offer?  Hard to say at this time.  I think its a little unlikely given their sudden reluctance to spend.  Kepler seems well-liked by the fan base, but I don't perceive that he is loved like a Hrbek or Kirby.  If he leaves he would be mourned a little by fans but they would move on to cheering for the next right fielder.

[bean5302]

I don't see Kepler getting a QO because he'd almost certainly take it. He's going to be operating on 1-2 year contracts going forward due to his oft injured nature, and declining speed and defense and age.

Kepler's xwOBA this year is similar to 2022's campaign, but his actual production is on par with last year's so there's reason to expect some regression, but let's assume he keeps up production close to his current level and ends the season at 3.5 WAR. What kind of contract do people think a 32 year old, 3ish WAR caliber right fielder will get? 2-3yrs for $32-40MM is I'd say his limit. $21MM for a single year is almost a no brainer for Max to accept, IMHO. It's also a price the Twins cannot come close to affording.

[NotAboutWinning]

Ownership and the FO seem to love Max. Will love or money win out? Stay tuned!

[Dman]

I've been thinking about this as well. As pointed out in the article there are two things that make the QO a very tough decision.  First Max's offensive numbers need to remain in the top 20 to 30 players and second can the Twins afford to keep him if he decides to accept the QO?  

Even if Max has a career year this year he only has a little over one years evidence that his bat is elite.  He also is an above average defender but his age is not ideal for anything beyond a three year deal.  Still I think if the numbers stay elite offensively he can find a good deal for himself if he rejects the QO.

If he falls off to just above average offensively I don't see them taking the risk.  A lot has to go right the rest of the season for Max to get a qualifying offer.  I think in the end the Twins won't take the risk, but we'll have to see how his season shakes out first.

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

I don't believe the Twins will put the QO on Max and we should expect Kepler to sign with a team on the West Coast. Enjoy Max this year because he is in his final year playing for the Twins.

Right up the smart sneaky Giants alley. 😳

[Doctor Gast]

13 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I don't see Kepler getting a QO because he'd almost certainly take it. He's going to be operating on 1-2 year contracts going forward due to his oft injured nature, and declining speed and defense and age.

Kepler's xwOBA this year is similar to 2022's campaign, but his actual production is on par with last year's so there's reason to expect some regression, but let's assume he keeps up production close to his current level and ends the season at 3.5 WAR. What kind of contract do people think a 32 year old, 3ish WAR caliber right fielder will get? 2-3yrs for $32-40MM is I'd say his limit. $21MM for a single year is almost a no brainer for Max to accept, IMHO. It's also a price the Twins cannot come close to affording.

#1 Twins can't afford it. #2 He's not worth it, sorry #3 if Twins offer it, he'll accept (he'd be crazy not to) because he likes the Twins & it's more than what gets on FA- So that blows the compensation draft pick.

Not going to happen.

[Vanimal46]

If he keeps this up, he might have more value as a trade deadline rental vs. the compensation he’ll receive from the qualifying offer. 

[bean5302]

3 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

If he keeps this up, he might have more value as a trade deadline rental vs. the compensation he’ll receive from the qualifying offer. 

I agree. The Twins' situation on trading Kepler could be tenuous and depend on Matt Wallner getting out of his head and relaxing a little, and Trevor Larnach continuing to prove the production this year isn't a fluke. 

[DJL44]

I think the recent offseason with the Ohtani deal pushed the QO up above $22M. That's a lot for one year of Max Kepler. The Twins are going into another offseason of "uncertainty" with their television contract which leads me to conclude that we will have another offseason where they cry poor in November and spend a windfall on whatever leftovers they can find in February.

[DJL44]

10 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

If he keeps this up, he might have more value as a trade deadline rental vs. the compensation he’ll receive from the qualifying offer. 

If the Twins are still in 3rd place at the trade deadline it would be smart of them to move Kepler.

[Vanimal46]

3 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I agree. The Twins' situation on trading Kepler could be tenuous and depend on Matt Wallner getting out of his head and relaxing a little, and Trevor Larnach continuing to prove the production this year isn't a fluke. 

Yep. And if the Twins really believe they are contenders then I can see them riding it out with Kepler. 

In full disclosure I’m just scanning his b-ref page but I see a BAbip at a much higher rate (.319) vs anytime in his career (.255 career, previous high is last year at .288) and a lower hard hit % compared to last year. This might be the time to sell high. 

[Major League Ready]

34 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I don't see Kepler getting a QO because he'd almost certainly take it. He's going to be operating on 1-2 year contracts going forward due to his oft injured nature, and declining speed and defense and age.

Kepler's xwOBA this year is similar to 2022's campaign, but his actual production is on par with last year's so there's reason to expect some regression, but let's assume he keeps up production close to his current level and ends the season at 3.5 WAR. What kind of contract do people think a 32 year old, 3ish WAR caliber right fielder will get? 2-3yrs for $32-40MM is I'd say his limit. $21MM for a single year is almost a no brainer for Max to accept, IMHO. It's also a price the Twins cannot come close to affording.

Hernandez got $23.5 from the Dodgers after producing 1.8 WAR in 2023 and 2,.9 in 2022.  Max produced 2.9 WAR last year.  He is on pace for 4 WAR this season.   Let's say he produces 3.4 WAR.  His previous 2 years is higher and he is trending up where Hernandez was coming off a bad year which is probably why he only got 1 year.  If max produces 3+ WAR, there will be better offers than 1 year / $20M.   Obviously, that's just my opinion but I believe someone is going to offer at least 2/35M and the qualifying offer will be rejected.

[farmerguychris]

The F.O. has always had a higher opinion of Kepler than most fans have and for much of the past year, they've been right.  However... even with him doing well  and possibly earning this amount of money - I would expect the owner's will force him to play elsewhere because of the price tag.

[Linus]

The Twins are stuck. They don’t have anyone you can count on to take his place next year barring some Wallner and Larnach miracle but they apparently don’t have the money to issue the QO. They don’t have a left fielder either so that makes this really interesting.  I would do it but I have no idea what ownership plans to do with payroll. 

[bean5302]

Just now, Major League Ready said:

Hernandez got $23.5 from the Dodgers after producing 1.8 WAR in 2023 and 2,.9 in 2022.  Max produced 2.9 WAR last year.  He is on pace for 4 WAR this season.   Let's say he produces 3.4 WAR.  His previous 2 years is higher and he is trending up where Hernandez was coming off a bad year which is probably why he only got 1 year.  If max produces 3+ WAR, there will be better offers than 1 year / $20M.   Obviously, that's just my opinion but I believe someone is going to offer at least 2/35M and the qualifying offer will be rejected.

So Teoscar Hernandez's bat is dramatically superior to Kepler's, and so is his durability. Beyond that, Hernandez is a lot more reliable production-wise, but his down year obviously scared some suitors off.
Hernandez vs. Kepler average of WAR, wRC+, plate appearances
2021 = 3.9 vs. 2.2, 132 vs. 97, 595 vs. 490
2022 = 2.9 vs. 1.9, 130 vs. 95, 535 vs. 446
2023 = 2.0 vs. 2.9, 105 vs. 124, 678 vs. 493
2024 =  1.6 vs.  1.4, 137 vs. 144, 228 vs. 131

Now, there were predictions Hernandez was going to get as high as 4yrs $80MM because he was better than Kepler by a mile in almost every way, but he ultimately settled for $23.5MM with $8.5MM deferred over 10 years so Hernandez only makes $15.5MM this year. Hernandez was not extended a QO, and that probably would have have reduced his value considerably. Kepler will have to compete directly with Hernandez this year, and a much more robust free agent market for position players this season.

[Mike Sixel]

35 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

If he keeps this up, he might have more value as a trade deadline rental vs. the compensation he’ll receive from the qualifying offer. 

This would take serious cohones to do, but I'd consider it. Promote Rodriguez, and hope Wallner returns to last year, or larnach is decent to good....

Otoh, if Lopez remembers who he is, this is a contender with a healthy Lewis......

In any event, given their budget constraints, I doubt they offer a QO. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

And the Kepler hate continues...

1) We have nothing ready to go to replace him.  Wallner and Martin are obviously not ready to provide his level of output.
2) While he has been inconsistent, he is an average to above average offensive OF, an above average to elite defensive OF that the clubhouse and fans both love.

Besides the fact that ownership won't spend money, the only real negative about resigning him would be his 10/5 rights making a potential trade more difficult.

Offer him 2/$30 with attainable bench marks that could push it to $35.  Put a 3rd year vesting option also with attainable benchmarks.

The hate really needs to stop.  These are the types of players you want in your organization.

[Schmoeman5]

Just now, Fire Dan Gladden said:

And the Kepler hate continues...

1) We have nothing ready to go to replace him.  Wallner and Martin are obviously not ready to provide his level of output.
2) While he has been inconsistent, he is an average to above average offensive OF, an above average to elite defensive OF that the clubhouse and fans both love.

Besides the fact that ownership won't spend money, the only real negative about resigning him would be his 10/5 rights making a potential trade more difficult.

Offer him 2/$30 with attainable bench marks that could push it to $35.  Put a 3rd year vesting option also with attainable benchmarks.

The hate really needs to stop.  These are the types of players you want in your organization.

Tell that to the FO. I'm pretty sure the haters really don't have much say on this. Nor do the fan boys.

[DJL44]

17 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

And the Kepler hate continues...

1) We have nothing ready to go to replace him.  Wallner and Martin are obviously not ready to provide his level of output.
2) While he has been inconsistent, he is an average to above average offensive OF, an above average to elite defensive OF that the clubhouse and fans both love.

Besides the fact that ownership won't spend money, the only real negative about resigning him would be his 10/5 rights making a potential trade more difficult.

Offer him 2/$30 with attainable bench marks that could push it to $35.  Put a 3rd year vesting option also with attainable benchmarks.

The hate really needs to stop.  These are the types of players you want in your organization.

If they're willing to spend $22M on Max Kepler they can also afford to replace him in free agency. Kepler has no reason at all to accept a 2/$30 extension from the Twins when free agency is this close.

I don't think this has anything to do with whether or not people like Max Kepler. It's predicting what this front office will do.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

7 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

If they're willing to spend $22M on Max Kepler they can also afford to replace him in free agency. Kepler has no reason at all to accept a 2/$30 extension from the Twins when free agency is this close.

I don't think this has anything to do with whether or not people like Max Kepler. It's predicting what this front office will do.

I think if the Twins offer a market level offer, Kepler would listen.  That really depends on what Kepler's wants/needs are (of which I have heard nothing).

I do agree with you that this about what the FO will do.  However, I continue to be amazed at the amount of "trade him or let him go" comments...  The grass is not always greener, especially when you have a quality player.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

14 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

The Twins won't offer the QO not because Kep is not worth it, but because they won't want to invest that much money in him when they have cheaper options.

Rather than lose him for nothing, I suspect that they will trade him at the deadline or offer him an incentive-laden 2 year deal with a team option.  If they go this route, it MUST be a lower base salary with incentives to protect the team should he regress back down to previous 2023 (2nd half) and 2024 to-date levels.

What cheaper options are you referring to?  Wallner? Martin?  They do not provide anything close to the value Kepler brings...
 

[Whitey333]

I just don't see the keeping Kepler.  I wish they could.  I read someplace, I wish I remember where, that the Twins are considering cutting payroll again next year.  They already have about 35 million tied up in Correa, 17 million in Buxton, about 18 mill in Lopez, and 10 million in Vasquez. That's already around 80 million of a 125 million payroll.  Not much left over for any additions.  

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

#1 Twins can't afford it. #2 He's not worth it, sorry #3 if Twins offer it, he'll accept (he'd be crazy not to) because he likes the Twins & it's more than what gets on FA- So that blows the compensation draft pick.

Not going to happen.

Twins can afford it.  They won't have to because he won't take it, because last time to cash in, and someone will pay him more than $50 million.  He has been very good for almost a full year now, and a damn fine player since he came up with the Twins.  If he remains healthy he is a lock.  As is, he is a top 30 positional player.  (slightly below currently due to time off for injury)

 

[FlyingFinn]

22 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

What cheaper options are you referring to?  Wallner? Martin?

Emmanuel Rodriguez. It's a real gamble that he will succeed right away but he is cheaper.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

11 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

They may not provide value now but by next season they will.  The Twins will NOT pay Kepler north of 20mm regardless of how good he is the remainder of this year.  It's just not their MO.

I think that was the argument last year regarding those two as well...

Just like signing Correa was not their MO either...

I agree that the FO will not be re-signing Kepler.  Not because they have faith in their prospects, not because Kepler isn't worth the salary, but because the FO will be hamstrung on how much they can spend.  That being said, they SHOULD sign him to a market-level contract because he provides enough value.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

And the Kepler hate continues...

1) We have nothing ready to go to replace him.  Wallner and Martin are obviously not ready to provide his level of output.
2) While he has been inconsistent, he is an average to above average offensive OF, an above average to elite defensive OF that the clubhouse and fans both love.

Besides the fact that ownership won't spend money, the only real negative about resigning him would be his 10/5 rights making a potential trade more difficult.

Offer him 2/$30 with attainable bench marks that could push it to $35.  Put a 3rd year vesting option also with attainable benchmarks.

The hate really needs to stop.  These are the types of players you want in your organization.

 

39 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

What cheaper options are you referring to?  Wallner? Martin?  They do not provide anything close to the value Kepler brings...
 

The Wallner hate really needs to stop! lol. Seriously, though. In his short 2023, Wallner was as good as Kepler has ever been in his entire career, but Wallner's struggling at the plate right now (like Kepler has done much of his career). Emmanuel Rodriguez, Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner or a different cheap player will need to fill Kepler's shoes next year. Austin Martin is a 4th outfielder like I suspect Keirsey is.

Seriously, though. Saying the Twins shouldn't extend a qualifying offer to Kepler is just good sense, and I don't think anybody "hates" Kepler, just that Kepler is an expensive 2-3 WAR luxury for the Twins, and there are better options given the Twins' payroll limitations.

Correa $37MM, Lopez $22MM, Buxton $15MM, Vazquez $10MM, Paddack $7.5MM, Dobnak $3MM. That's $90MM which is guaranteed to be tied up.

2025 status: Ryan Jeffers Arb2 $6MM, Willi Castro Arb 3 $8MM, Bailey Ober Arb 1 $3MM, Joe Ryan Arb 1 $4MM, Griffen Jax Arb 1 $3MM, Jhoan Duran Arb 1 $4MM, Trevor Larnach Arb 1 $3MM that's $31MM more.

Plus 15 other players at or close to their salary this year probably another $15MM or so.

That's $136MM assuming the Twins cut ties with Thielbar, Farmer, and Kepler. That's the situation the Twins are in right now.