Could Max Kepler Receive a Qualifying Offer?

[bean5302]

15 minutes ago, RpR said:

It does not work your way.

How is the strikeout rate calculated for hitters?

 

https://calculator.academy/strikeout-percentage-calculator/

 

 

First, determine the total number of strikeouts. Next, determine the total number of at-bats. Next, gather the formula from above = STRP = SO / AB * 100. Finally, calculate the Strikeout Percentage.

 

Strike out percentage comes from at bats, not plate appearences as much as you wish it did.

Please stop searching the internet to find some random generic calculator website for your baseball calculations, and then referencing that website to spread blatant misinformation. 

Per an actual baseball site (fangraphs.com), developer and host of the fWAR stat MLB owners actually wanted to use as a basis for arbitration value in negotiation with the MLBPA.

Quote

Strikeout rate (K%) and walk rate (BB%) measure how often a hitter walks or strikes out on a per plate appearance basis.

https://library.fangraphs.com/offense/rate-stats/

As you can see per an actual baseball website, Matt Wallner's K rate is 31.5% last year.
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/matt-wallner/26466/stats?position=OF

[Dman]

1 hour ago, RpR said:

Strike out rate is determined by at bats, not plate appearences, just like batting average.

Hey like I said I calculated that way and everywhere else I looked it was plate attempts.  Both Fangraphs and B-Ref do it that way.  When cited by announcers it seems to be the same as the other online sites.  Interestingly MLB.com doesn't calculate it for you.  

When you think about it though plate attempts makes more sense as they walked in that at bat they didn't make an out or strike out it was a positive result. A walk can't count as a hit for batting average, but we sure keep track of OBP which includes the walk stat. Walks are important and they should count as a positive outcome they aren't nothing in the context of strikeouts.  So i think PA makes sense as it includes all outcomes not just hits and outs like BA.

[RpR]

24 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Please stop searching the internet to find some random generic calculator website for your baseball calculations, and then referencing that website to spread blatant misinformation. 

Per an actual baseball site (fangraphs.com), developer and host of the fWAR stat MLB owners actually wanted to use as a basis for arbitration value in negotiation with the MLBPA.

LOL- you try so hard.

David Appleman

Age: 35

Lives In: Clarendon, with his wife of five years, Shoa

Current Job: Chief executive of FanGraphs, a baseball analytics website for fans and insiders that publishes more than 400 articles a month on topics such as fantasy baseball advice, statistical trends and top baseball prospects. The site averages about 1.2 million unique visitors per month and has a content agreement with ESPN Insider.

First Love: I lived in New York until I was 13, but grew up a Red Sox fan. My mom’s family is from Boston and they took me to Fenway.

Passion Project: As a kid, I was a huge baseball fan. I was really into collecting baseball cards. Like, really into collecting baseball cards. I started FanGraphs in 2005 because I wanted to win at fantasy baseball.

[RpR]

12 minutes ago, Dman said:

Hey like I said I calculated that way and everywhere else I looked it was plate attempts.  Both Fangraphs and B-Ref do it that way.  When cited by announcers it seems to be the same as the other online sites.  Interestingly MLB.com doesn't calculate it for you.  

When you think about it though plate attempts makes more sense as they walked in that at bat they didn't make an out or strike out it was a positive result. A walk can't count as a hit for betting average, but we sure keep track of OBP which includes the walk stat. Walks are important and they should count as a positive outcome they aren't nothing in the context of strikeouts.  So i think PA makes sense as it includes all outcomes not just hits and outs like BA.

If that works for you then use it.

Walk rate is just as much determined by pitcher's ability as batters ability to decide if it is a strike or not a strike, especially as intentional walks are the same as 4 bad pitches, so they really have zero to do with a batters ability.

 

[USAFChief]

6 minutes ago, RpR said:

If that works for you then use it.

 

First rule of holes: When you find yourself in one, stop digging.

[twinstalker]

Nope.  He won't hit well enough to get a big contract, so it would be dumb to reject it.  The Twins only really want the draft pick here.

If he does have a really big year and is willing to play CF, then he would reject it because that's worthy of a big contract.  I find the probability of that low.

[Dman]

14 hours ago, RpR said:

If that works for you then use it.

Walk rate is just as much determined by pitcher's ability as batters ability to decide if it is a strike or not a strike, especially as intentional walks are the same as 4 bad pitches, so they really have zero to do with a batters ability.

 

I do and will since it seems to be the measure used.

Just like intentional walks one could say the same thing about a batter who checks his swing and gets a hit or a full swinging bunt that finds a dead zone and counts as a hit.  Not really skill, but a lucky outcome.  Or how about when a position player pitches and guys hit HR's. Those things skew stats too. Most walks are earned by knowing the zone and making the pitcher work.  Plate discipline is considered a skill one that is generally necessary to be successful at the MLB level.

To me the reason BA can't include walks is because if they counted then since they don't count as a hit they would actually lower a players batting average and if you counted them as a hit, as you mentioned above it doesn't tell a true story of the players ability to hit the ball.  It would only tell us about OBP with no context about the ability to hit.  They need to be kept separate to give us a better idea of how well a player can hit versus get on base.

But to say walks don't count at all is disingenuous because a player that walks still counts as a run when they cross home plate. It is still a plate attempt with a positive outcome (i.e. not an out) and it should be included in K% because while a walk might not be a hit it is also not an out.

[RpR]

16 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

First rule of holes: When you find yourself in one, stop digging.

He did not dig a hole.

[RpR]

1 minute ago, Dman said:

To me the reason BA can't include walks is because if they counted then since they don't count as a hit they would actually lower a players batting average and if you counted them as a hit, as you mentioned above it doesn't tell a true story of the players ability to hit the ball.  It would only tell us about OBP with no context about the ability to hit.  They need to be kept separate to give us a better idea of how well a player can hit versus get on base.

But to say walks don't count at all is disingenuous because a player that walks still counts as a run when they cross home plate. It is still a plate attempt with a positive outcome (i.e. not and out) and it should be included in K% because while a walk might not be a hit it is also not an out.

 Catch 22

 

[IndianaTwin]

8 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

And the Kepler hate continues...

1) We have nothing ready to go to replace him.  Wallner and Martin are obviously not ready to provide his level of output.
2) While he has been inconsistent, he is an average to above average offensive OF, an above average to elite defensive OF that the clubhouse and fans both love.

Besides the fact that ownership won't spend money, the only real negative about resigning him would be his 10/5 rights making a potential trade more difficult.

Offer him 2/$30 with attainable bench marks that could push it to $35.  Put a 3rd year vesting option also with attainable benchmarks.

The hate really needs to stop.  These are the types of players you want in your organization.

Kepler doesn’t have 10-and-5 status. His service time was 7.152 heading into the season, so he won’t hit 10 until early 2026. 

[DJL44]

3 hours ago, USAFChief said:

I'd be pretty surprised if the Twins dealt Kepler this summer. They'd have to fall far, far out of the last WC spot for that to happen.

I agree. They will want the windfall from the one wild card playoff game sellout.

[nova_twins]

Holy moly the bad takes. If Kepler keeps hitting, he gets the QO and declines it, no question. He would be such a bargain that even if he took the QO, he'd be easy to trade. Can't lose situation for the twins. If he keeps hitting. 

[Riverbrian]

How much money do you want to spend on a platoon player? How much should you spend on a platoon player?

For 21 million... couldn't we get a player that plays every day? 

Max Kepler is not facing left handers.

Like the article states. Joc Pederson is your current comp. 

Joc got a QO with the Giants. Many were shocked he received a QO. No surprise that he took the QO. 

After the QO. Joc signed a two year deal with the D-backs. Actually a 1 year deal at 9.5M because there is a mutual option at 14 million and mutual options are typically not exercised, 

A QO at 21 million? With our budget constraints? What are we talking about? 

 

 

[TopGunn#22]

I don't think it's "hate" when people point out reasons why Max Kepler may not be a Twin next year, or even past this year's trade deadline, it's LOGIC.  Look, Max is one of my favorite Twins but the ECONOMICS of this make it pretty obvious that his days are numbered.  That's how the Pohlad's run this franchise.

Larnach, Kirilloff, Wallner and E-Rod.  Those are all the reasons why Max will probably be replacing Jason Heyward in RF for the Dodgers at some point this year or next.  It doesn't matter that Max is a better player than any of those guys listed.  It's that Max will price himself out of the Pohlad's acceptable cost parameters and each of those other guys will fall within their expected cost parameters.  Ownership and the FO is expecting one of those listed guys to "pay off."  "It is the Twins way..."  

[USAFChief]

10 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I agree. They will want the windfall from the one wild card playoff game sellout.

There wouldn't be a "one wildcard game" sellout.

They'd either host a best of 3 game series as the top WC (#4 seed), or go on the road as WC 2 or 3 (#5 or #6 seed.)

And that's not the reason they won't trade Kepler anyway.

At least not the primary one.

 

[DJL44]

30 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

There wouldn't be a "one wildcard game" sellout.

They'd either host a best of 3 game series as the top WC (#4 seed), or go on the road as WC 2 or 3 (#5 or #6 seed.)

And that's not the reason they won't trade Kepler anyway.

At least not the primary one.

Didn't have the details handy on how MLB decided to run the playoffs this season but the Twins absolutely want the playoff windfall. That's the whole strategy - make the playoffs and profit, preferably spending as little as possible to make the playoffs.

[USAFChief]

40 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Didn't have the details handy on how MLB decided to run the playoffs this season but the Twins absolutely want the playoff windfall. That's the whole strategy - make the playoffs and profit, preferably spending as little as possible to make the playoffs.

That's been the playoff format since 2022.

In any case, Falvine don't trade away assets, even on expiring contracts, when in contention. 

And thank goodness they don't. 

[Riverbrian]

With the way the Twins platoon.

At Minimum the Twins need 4 players who will play every day and that is if the Twins continue to use Jeffers as the DH against left handers. If they don't... the Twins will need 5 players who play every day against both left handers and right handers. 

We can safely say that Lewis, Correa and Buxton are 3 of those spots next year. Who gets the 4th spot or the 5th spot. Will it be Kepler? If it's Kepler does it requires another Santana type signing because I'm pretty sure that the Twins are not going to offer a 21 million dollar QO plus another player to play every day unless it's a Santana type signing and most of us don't want that again. 

With Jeffers handling DH Duties against Left Handers. That adds up to 4 left handers to platoon and 3 right handers to platoon plus two catchers for a total of 9 roster spots. That leaves 4 roster spots for everyday players against both hands. 

If Jeffers doesn't DH against left handers... that adds up to 3 left handers to platoon and 3 right handers to handcuff to them for a total of 8 roster spots and that leaves 5 every day players for a total of 13 roster spots. 

Right now... as of May 29th 2024... Kepler doesn't have an every day spot. Kepler is being platooned. 

This discussion requires attention to how Kepler is currently being utilized. 

  

[Fire Dan Gladden]

15 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

Kepler doesn’t have 10-and-5 status. His service time was 7.152 heading into the season, so he won’t hit 10 until early 2026. 

I stand corrected.  Thanks for clarifying.

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, USAFChief said:

There wouldn't be a "one wildcard game" sellout.

They'd either host a best of 3 game series as the top WC (#4 seed), or go on the road as WC 2 or 3 (#5 or #6 seed.)

And that's not the reason they won't trade Kepler anyway.

At least not the primary one.

 

Nm

[DocBauer]

This all comes together in the end:

1} I don't know how good Wallner might become. I suspect the player he might become, but I really have no idea. But I do know based on everything we've seen the past 3 years in milb and what he's done at the ML level, he's NOT the player we've seen so far this season. I remain confident he's going to eventually get out of his own head, stop pressing, figure things out, and get right again. But just how good he might, again, I don't know. But he's likely part of 2025 and beyond, plus likely part of the equation the second half of this year.

2} Both Larnach and Kirilloff seem to have been around forever, but mostly due to injuries, they have both been and down in performance. Even this current season, Kirilloff started off great, went in to a massive slump, but has been doing well again the last 10 days or so. Is he ready to roll now? Larnach had a good spring, and is putting up good numbers this season so far. His turf toe has hindered his ability to play much OF...hopefully that changes in the near future...but he's changed his approach/stance and has been pretty consistent up until the past couple of weeks. But even then, he's been hitting the ball hard, just with no results. Both are healthy. Both STILL have less than 800 ML AB so far, and less than 9000 ML PA. They are important for the remainder of this year, and beyond.

3} I don't know how good Emanual Rodriguez is going to be, but I suspect he's going to be really good. But being 21yo and raking at AA doesn't mean he's ready to come up tomorrow. I do think he'll be in St Paul relatively soon and hopefully he will continue on his great course. He might even do better as he might have to be more aggressive in his swings, which might lead to even more overall production, even if it means a drop from an insane OB% to only a crazy one. I think he's part of 2025 and beyond, but probably not 2024. Still, he's part of the equation in the OP.

4} Martin, Keirsey, and Helman all offer up some form of depth for Buxton and all those listed above. Martin looks like he's going to make it as a ML player, we just don't know how good of one yet. Utility? Full time starter and table setter? Nice to see him go back to St Paul and crank things up another notch instead of lamenting not being with the Twins. And while we have ZERO clue as to whether or not Keirsey or Helman can actually hit at the ML level, they have nothing to prove at the AAA level any longer. Both offer defense, speed, and some power. But we're talking 4th OF types, and possible platoon options, and not full time starters. But that depth, those quality and versatile 4th OF types are valuable/important as well. And they all are also part of this discussion.

Nobody could be happier than me since mid season last year when Kepler finally seemed to take off and become the player I had always hoped he might be. Could be/should be? And it looks sustainable for this season, and perhaps a couple more seasons beyond. QUANTITY over QUALITY is never a good thing, or at least, generally not a winning formula. And no doubt Kepler would be missed if he's gone. But there are an awful lot of options available for the Twins OF next season, with Buxton and Castro obviously still part of the plan as well. The Twins don't need ALL of them to becomes the best versions of themselves, though that would be incredible. But they do need a couple of these guys to reach their potential, with another one or two to just be solid role players. That's not a tremendous ask.

I believe the FA market is going to be deflated even more than it was this past offseason due to the crazy flux and uncertainty of TV deals across MLB. Would Kepler love being a Twin enough to sign a 2 year $30M ish deal and stick around? Mmmm....maybe. But if he continues to do what he's doing now, I'm pretty sure he'd get a larger deal than that. But perhaps the Twins should at least ask him?

I don't think Max would accept the QO. So it would make some sense for the Twins to go ahead and offer it to him and hope to get the bonus pick. But if the FA market is depressed, and/or deeper than last season, he might not get the offer he wants and might be tempted to accept. Adding $5M to Kepler's current salary is one thing, taking it up another $10M plus is entirely different. Also, I don't believe the Twins get compensation...at least not high compensation...if he doesn't sign for something like $50M plus. Right?

So, IMO, the risk/reward scenario probably eliminates the QO from being made to Kepler. And as much as I've been a fan, and really enjoyed 2019 and the past 14 months going back to mid summer 2023, I think it's time to just accept he's gone after this season, without any recompense, and it's time to focus on all the players listed above. They're all part of this season, next, and potentially beyond. 

No QO will be made. I doubt an extension happens. And unless the Twins just fall out of the race, Kepler will be part of a playoff contending team all season.

[Mike Sixel]

I think he 100% accepts a one year deal for just over 20 million dollars. He can always be a FA after that year.....

[RpR]

1 hour ago, DocBauer said:

This all comes together in the end:

1} I don't know how good Wallner might become. I suspect the player he might become, but I really have no idea. But I do know based on everything we've seen the past 3 years in milb and what he's done at the ML level, he's NOT the player we've seen so far this season. I remain confident he's going to eventually get out of his own head, stop pressing, figure things out, and get right again. But just how good he might, again, I don't know. But he's likely part of 2025 and beyond, plus likely part of the equation the second half of this year.

Well , Dorthy kept saying: "There'e no place like" till she got there, but then, this is not the Wizard of Oz.

[SteveLV]

This is an impending decision that the Twins FO made for themselves, hopefully with eyes wide open.

I advocated this off-season that a smart FO should have made one of two decisions:

1) Trade Kepler this past off season for max value (no pun intended); or,

2) Extend Kepler then.

To do neither puts them now in this situation.  It is almost like they were betting he would not do well this year or something so they could let him walk.  Weird.

Now they can:

1) Let him walk for nada;

2) Extend an expensive QO which may or may not secure his services;

3) Trade him before the trade deadline as a "rental" (and, hence. likely less value than a trade last offseason);

4) Extend him now or re-sign him later.

Option 1 is idiotic, 3 hurts the team's chances this year in all likelihood, and, if 4, why not do the deal last off season?

I can't see the Twins FO choosing 2, the QO, given their professed budget constraints this year.