Could Max Kepler Receive a Qualifying Offer?

[RpR]

55 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

 

The Wallner hate really needs to stop! lol. Seriously, though.

In his short 2023, Wallner was as good as Kepler has ever been in his entire career, but Wallner's struggling at the plate right now (like Kepler has done much of his career). Emmanuel Rodriguez, Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner or a different cheap player will need to fill Kepler's shoes next year. Austin Martin is a 4th outfielder like I suspect Keirsey is.

I hate watching Wallner in the outfieled looking like a Buster Keaton movie.

Wallner is has never been and will NEVER be as good as Kepler, in any form  -- your statement implies Wallner infatuaion and a dismal opinion of Kepler.

Wallner had a 37.5 percent strike out rate before the Post Season where it hit the level he is at today.

As I wrote in a different thread, they sent Sano down to A ball, if they can do that with Wallner they probably should.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

24 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

 

The Wallner hate really needs to stop! lol. Seriously, though. In his short 2023, Wallner was as good as Kepler has ever been in his entire career, but Wallner's struggling at the plate right now (like Kepler has done much of his career). Emmanuel Rodriguez, Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner or a different cheap player will need to fill Kepler's shoes next year. Austin Martin is a 4th outfielder like I suspect Keirsey is.

Seriously, though. Saying the Twins shouldn't extend a qualifying offer to Kepler is just good sense, and I don't think anybody "hates" Kepler, just that Kepler is an expensive 2-3 WAR luxury for the Twins, and there are better options given the Twins' payroll limitations.

Correa $37MM, Lopez $22MM, Buxton $15MM, Vazquez $10MM, Paddack $7.5MM, Dobnak $3MM. That's $90MM which is guaranteed to be tied up.

2025 status: Ryan Jeffers Arb2 $6MM, Willi Castro Arb 3 $8MM, Bailey Ober Arb 1 $3MM, Joe Ryan Arb 1 $4MM, Griffen Jax Arb 1 $3MM, Jhoan Duran Arb 1 $4MM, Trevor Larnach Arb 1 $3MM that's $31MM more.

Plus 15 other players at or close to their salary this year probably another $15MM or so.

That's $136MM assuming the Twins cut ties with Thielbar, Farmer, and Kepler. That's the situation the Twins are in right now.
 

My stance is that replacing Kepler with a cheaper player, especially in this instance, will more than likely lead to less wins.  There is no definitive replacement in the wings.  Wallner had a decent run last year, but everybody needs to be wary of one-year players.  Kepler has a proven, if somewhat uneven, track record.

Depending on where you get your information, the going rate for 1.0 of WAR is $5-8M.  My suggestion was to offer Kepler a market level contract (not a QO) of 2y/$30M with incentives that could raise it to $35M and an option year.

That being said, I am confident this won't happen as ownership is prioritizing not just income, but increasing income by decreasing salary.  They pocketed the TV revenue we all knew they were going to get this year.  They will make the same argument this offseason as well.  The FO will take the heat for this, even though their hands will tied to the point of castration.

[Linus]

If Kepler walks two of Wallner Larnach Martin and Em Rod will have break through as we need a left and right fielder. I don’t like those odds. 

[Schmoeman5]

7 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

My stance is that replacing Kepler with a cheaper player, especially in this instance, will more than likely lead to less wins.  There is no definitive replacement in the wings.  Wallner had a decent run last year, but everybody needs to be wary of one-year players.  Kepler has a proven, if somewhat uneven, track record.

Depending on where you get your information, the going rate for 1.0 of WAR is $5-8M.  My suggestion was to offer Kepler a market level contract (not a QO) of 2y/$30M with incentives that could raise it to $35M and an option year.

That being said, I am confident this won't happen as ownership is prioritizing not just income, but increasing income by decreasing salary.  They pocketed the TV revenue we all knew they were going to get this year.  They will make the same argument this offseason as well.  The FO will take the heat for this, even though their hands will tied to the point of castration.

You might be right in your assessment. But if the Twins are going to continue the right/left lineups which they have done pretty consistently last year and this year. Can you see them giving a QO to someone who's going to play 75% of the time? I'm sure that'll factor in too. As well as age and WAR or any other metric. And Kepler in RF vs lefthanders is still better IMO than MM. But not to Rocco or Falvey. 

[TwinsDr2021]

2 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

And the Kepler hate continues...

1) We have nothing ready to go to replace him.  Wallner and Martin are obviously not ready to provide his level of output.
2) While he has been inconsistent, he is an average to above average offensive OF, an above average to elite defensive OF that the clubhouse and fans both love.

Besides the fact that ownership won't spend money, the only real negative about resigning him would be his 10/5 rights making a potential trade more difficult.

Offer him 2/$30 with attainable bench marks that could push it to $35.  Put a 3rd year vesting option also with attainable benchmarks.

The hate really needs to stop.  These are the types of players you want in your organization.

There is a huge difference between hate and being realistic.

If I believed the Twins were going back to a 150 million plus payroll I would say they would offer him a QO, but I don't see how 20 million fits next year's payroll if it is about the same as this year, with AK, Larnach, Martin, and others still being here as part time platoon type players.

At some point those vaunted prospects have to set up and take a job, like Jeffers has. I mean every prospect can't be a platoon type player.

[Mike Sixel]

14 minutes ago, Linus said:

If Kepler walks two of Wallner Larnach Martin and Em Rod will have break through as we need a left and right fielder. I don’t like those odds. 

Which other starters are you getting rid of to pay him next year? Because with raises (even w/o Farmer, Margot, and Santana), they are likely over their budget w/o Kepler (and you need to replace those three on the roster).....Can't trade Vazquez, so you get to keep him.....

[cmoss84]

I think it's a conversation of Buxton vs. Max. Can't keep both for that $.

If we can find a suitor for Buxton...then I offer Max the QO. 50/50 if he takes it or signs one more contract elsewhere. 

I could see Buxton waiving no trade clause to play for Acuna-less Braves in hometown. 

[Linus]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Which other starters are you getting rid of to pay him next year? Because with raises (even w/o Farmer, Margot, and Santana), they are likely over their budget w/o Kepler (and you need to replace those three on the roster).....Can't trade Vazquez, so you get to keep him.....

Yep that’s why I said upthread that the Twins are stuck. They need him but can’t afford him. 

[Major League Ready]

16 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

There is a huge difference between hate and being realistic.

If I believed the Twins were going back to a 150 million plus payroll I would say they would offer him a QO, but I don't see how 20 million fits next year's payroll if it is about the same as this year, with AK, Larnach, Martin, and others still being here as part time platoon type players.

At some point those vaunted prospects have to set up and take a job, like Jeffers has. I mean every prospect can't be a platoon type player.

The decision to make Kepler a QO won't be based on if they are willing to pay him $20M next year.  They will make the QO if they believe another team will make an offer he will accept instead of the QO.

[RpR]

12 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Which other starters are you getting rid of to pay him next year? Because with raises (even w/o Farmer, Margot, and Santana), they are likely over their budget w/o Kepler (and you need to replace those three on the roster).....Can't trade Vazquez, so you get to keep him.....

Twins need a First Baseman with a good glove so Santana is going nowhere.

I am hoping Farmer breaks out of his misfortune, but Margot's surgery pretty much finished off his career.

Twins have zero known quantity back-ups , so the platoon fest will continue.

At that, Larnach, weak arm and all , may be around a long time but I am amazed at the long leash they have given Julien.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, RpR said:

I hate watching Wallner in the outfieled looking like a Buster Keaton movie.

Wallner is has never been and will NEVER be as good as Kepler, in any form  -- your statement implies Wallner infatuaion and a dismal opinion of Kepler.

Wallner had a 37.5 percent strike out rate before the Post Season where it hit the level he is at today.

As I wrote in a different thread, they sent Sano down to A ball, if they can do that with Wallner they probably should.

Wallner was on pace for about a 4 WAR season last year. That's as good as Kepler has ever been and an All Star-ish level of production. Wallner did not have a 37.5% strike out rate. It was 31.5%, which is 2% better than, say, defensive stud Michael A. Taylor.

I don't disagree with sending Wallner down to A ball. I advocated for that 45 days ago so he can build some confidence. He's clearly pressing too hard based on a recent interview recap Seth Stohs featured.

[Shaitan]

From Kepler's POV, I think the question is what is next year's free agent market like?

Who are the other starter level OF he'd be competing with for a contract?

[Shaitan]

Elephant in the room is the TV contract. But neither that, nor Kepler's final WAR, will be known for months.

[DJL44]

13 minutes ago, Shaitan said:

From Kepler's POV, I think the question is what is next year's free agent market like?

Who are the other starter level OF he'd be competing with for a contract?

Juan Soto leads the pack. Teoscar Hernandez and Cody Bellinger might be available again. Tyler O'Neill and Anthony Santander are also options.

[Guest]

Could, maybe, might....

Good question.  If they let him go, they get nothing in return.  Kep's unlikely to get much as a rental this summer if the Twins go to sell mode.  I'd lean into a QO if he keeps up his current performance.

[RpR]

26 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Wallner was on pace for about a 4 WAR season last year. That's as good as Kepler has ever been and an All Star-ish level of production. Wallner did not have a 37.5% strike out rate. It was 31.5%, which is 2% better than, say, defensive stud Michael A. Taylor.

I don't disagree with sending Wallner down to A ball. I advocated for that 45 days ago so he can build some confidence. He's clearly pressing too hard based on a recent interview recap Seth Stohs featured.

Wallner had 80 Ks in 213 at bats, that equals 37.5586854%

[Linus]

If the Twins give Max the QO and he rejects it wouldn’t he have to sign a contract in excess of $50 million to get the highest comp pick?  Would he get that?  If no then it’s probably not worth the risk to get a lower comp pick that would be a long shot. 

[Patzky]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

 

The Wallner hate really needs to stop! lol. Seriously, though. In his short 2023, Wallner was as good as Kepler has ever been in his entire career, but Wallner's struggling at the plate right now (like Kepler has done much of his career). Emmanuel Rodriguez, Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner or a different cheap player will need to fill Kepler's shoes next year. Austin Martin is a 4th outfielder like I suspect Keirsey is.

Seriously, though. Saying the Twins shouldn't extend a qualifying offer to Kepler is just good sense, and I don't think anybody "hates" Kepler, just that Kepler is an expensive 2-3 WAR luxury for the Twins, and there are better options given the Twins' payroll limitations.

Correa $37MM, Lopez $22MM, Buxton $15MM, Vazquez $10MM, Paddack $7.5MM, Dobnak $3MM. That's $90MM which is guaranteed to be tied up.

2025 status: Ryan Jeffers Arb2 $6MM, Willi Castro Arb 3 $8MM, Bailey Ober Arb 1 $3MM, Joe Ryan Arb 1 $4MM, Griffen Jax Arb 1 $3MM, Jhoan Duran Arb 1 $4MM, Trevor Larnach Arb 1 $3MM that's $31MM more.

Plus 15 other players at or close to their salary this year probably another $15MM or so.

That's $136MM assuming the Twins cut ties with Thielbar, Farmer, and Kepler. That's the situation the Twins are in right now.
 

There's gonna have to pay someone to take those remaining roster spots, much as you and I would do it for a song. Might as well pick competence.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

43 minutes ago, Shaitan said:

Elephant in the room is the TV contract. But neither that, nor Kepler's final WAR, will be known for months.

This is not as big an elephant as is let on.  The Twins will sell this offseason as "we have no contract so we can't spend" knowing full well there will be television revenue coming in at some point.  I fully expect them to pocket that revenue as they did last year

[bean5302]

54 minutes ago, RpR said:

Wallner had 80 Ks in 213 at bats, that equals 37.5586854%

Yeah.... except at bats doesn't include walks. Or hit by pitches. Or sacrifices. There's a handy-dandy website called fangraphs which gives you the number where you don't have to calculate it (wrong) yourself.

[Vanimal46]

1 hour ago, Shaitan said:

From Kepler's POV, I think the question is what is next year's free agent market like?

Who are the other starter level OF he'd be competing with for a contract?

We might see a market correction in the FA market given that half of the teams are dealing with this TV disaster. I wouldn’t want to be a free agent this winter. They could be waiting a long time for a deal like 2018. 

[Dman]

1 hour ago, RpR said:

Wallner had 80 Ks in 213 at bats, that equals 37.5586854%

I made the same mistake a while back when we still had Brent Rooker and my calculation was 40%.K rate  You need to use PA (Plate attempts) and then the numbers will work out better.  Speaking of Rooker I gave up on him because of K rate and poor fielding and I believe he is 8th in league OPS right now.  So you never know when a player might find something.  Most don't, but never say never I guess.

[Mike Sixel]

34 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

We might see a market correction in the FA market given that half of the teams are dealing with this TV disaster. I wouldn’t want to be a free agent this winter. They could be waiting a long time for a deal like 2018. 

this is a good point!

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Minderbinder said:

Kep's unlikely to get much as a rental this summer if the Twins go to sell mode.

I disagree. He's having a great season and he's pretty cheap. Atlanta, for one, would love to add Kepler right now. Seattle was interested before and I'm sure they would love to make Haniger a platoon player in RF. Santander is struggling for the Orioles. Castellanos has been bad for the Phillies. Yastrzemski is having a bad year for the Giants. That's 5 playoff teams with a hole in RF.

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I disagree. He's having a great season and he's pretty cheap. Atlanta, for one, would love to add Kepler right now. Seattle was interested before and I'm sure they would love to make Haniger a platoon player in RF. Santander is struggling for the Orioles. Castellanos has been bad for the Phillies. Yastrzemski is having a bad year for the Giants. That's 5 playoff teams with a hole in RF.

Agreed.

I'd guess Kepler would fetch a 45+ FV guy right now, but I could be wrong (either way). 

[RpR]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Yeah.... except at bats doesn't include walks. Or hit by pitches. Or sacrifices. There's a handy-dandy website called fangraphs which gives you the number where you don't have to calculate it (wrong) yourself.

It does not work your way.

How is the strikeout rate calculated for hitters?

 

https://calculator.academy/strikeout-percentage-calculator/

 

 

First, determine the total number of strikeouts. Next, determine the total number of at-bats. Next, gather the formula from above = STRP = SO / AB * 100. Finally, calculate the Strikeout Percentage.

 

Strike out percentage comes from at bats, not plate appearences as much as you wish it did.

[RpR]

1 hour ago, Dman said:

I made the same mistake a while back when we still had Brent Rooker and my calculation was 40%.K rate  You need to use PA (Plate attempts) and then the numbers will work out better.  Speaking of Rooker I gave up on him because of K rate and poor fielding and I believe he is 8th in league OPS right now.  So you never know when a player might find something.  Most don't, but never say never I guess.

Strike out rate is determined by at bats, not plate appearences, just like batting average.

[Beast]

They won’t pay him because, yes “ball guys,” they’re cheap.

If Rodriguez isn’t ready to start the season, give me Kepler over some half-assed filler akin to Margot.

Alex K and Wallner should not be handed anything they haven’t earned.  They are not the answer for various reasons (health, performance, etc.).  Plugging them in with no questions asked is a poverty franchise move.  

Since we’re run by the Pohlads, I think we already know they’re plan.  They’ll have to “right-size” (that sickening, academic, cut-rate business-school buzz term that they came up with for cheap makes me want to puke) thing even further next year for the results their incompetence is providing for them this year.  There’s been a lot of lean years here, not sure I’ve ever seen the base as apathetic and fed up.

[Shaitan]

2 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

We might see a market correction in the FA market given that half of the teams are dealing with this TV disaster. I wouldn’t want to be a free agent this winter. They could be waiting a long time for a deal like 2018. 

The fewer the players hitting the market, the higher the competition though. I'd be inclined to offer a QO based on the names above. If there are only a few starting OF out there, he should  get an offer elsewhere. If he takes the QO, they overpay for one year which is manageable and they might even be able to flip him in 2025 at the deadline if need be. (Or is he a 5 and 10 player too?)

BUT ask this question again in August because I want a full, consistent year first. And maybe some of the prospects step up in the meantime. In other words (and like most of the transaction discussions here at TD), it's just too early.

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

I disagree. He's having a great season and he's pretty cheap. Atlanta, for one, would love to add Kepler right now. Seattle was interested before and I'm sure they would love to make Haniger a platoon player in RF. Santander is struggling for the Orioles. Castellanos has been bad for the Phillies. Yastrzemski is having a bad year for the Giants. That's 5 playoff teams with a hole in RF.

I'd be pretty surprised if the Twins dealt Kepler this summer. They'd have to fall far, far out of the last WC spot for that to happen.