Jhoan Durán Will Soon Return for the Twins. Should He Be Starting?

[Peter Labuza]

Desperate for innings, teams are transforming ace closers into starters. Should the Twins solve their rotation depth issues by moving their best bullpen arm?

Image courtesy of Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

Twins fans probably don’t remember much about Zack Littell. The cruise-ship loving pitcher began as a weak starter before becoming a reliable reliever in 2019 (though he posted a xERA of 5.51). During the 2020 season, his underwhelming stuff became too much for the playoff-bound team to keep and he was outrighted off the roster. Littell bounced around between the Giants, Rangers and Red Sox before making his home with Tampa in the middle of last year.

And the Rays did what they do best. Littell was converted back from reliever to starter, throwing 87 innings with a 3.93 ERA. So far, he looks even better this season; over 27 innings, the righty has a 3.11 ERA and a top 20 FIP. Not bad for a literal mid-season DFA pick up.

But the Rays are not unique. Converting bullpen arms into quality starters has become a bit of a trend for 2024. The Braves’ best starter is former White Sox ace Reynaldo Lopez. Michael King took a no hitter into the eighth for the Padres. Jordan Hicks is crushing for SF. Seth Lugo is building a Cy Young candidacy in Kansas City.

Converted Starters	IP	ERA-	FIP-
Zack Littell (Rays)	27	91	76
Reynaldo Lopez (Braves)	25	18	71
Michael King (Padres)	30.2	107	144
Jordan Hicks (Giants)	28	41	99
Seth Lugo (Royals)	38	41	85

So that opens the question: could Durán join this crew? Cody Schoenmann speculated on the same topic in January, though there was no data to back up that these conversions would work. It’s hard to say how many innings each of these starters have in them, but now it does seem that this seems to be working.

More so, the Twins now need innings and good ones. Anthony DeSclafani never made it to the mound; Louie Varland got pushed to the minors to fix his stuff. Simeon Woods Richardson has looked capable in the fifth slot, but the reinforcements behind him are scant. The Twins could always pick up a veteran for a minor league deal, but what about five strong innings from Jhoan Durán?

Durán never got a real chance with the Twins organization as a starter. After coming over in the Eduardo Escobar trade, the lost minor league season in 2020 and an elbow strain in 2021 pushed the Twins to rethink a pitcher who had never topped 115 innings. He abandoned his changeup, relying entirely on his fastball, “splinker,” and curveball.

A few things have changed in Durán’s profile since making the majors. He throws his now infamous splinker as much as his curveball, creating a three-pitch mix. That’s maybe not enough to go deep into games, but perhaps it’s enough to make it five innings and limit his need. After all, Durán has comfortably gone two innings plenty of times, including his elite performance in the Twins’ final playoff game.

When Durán debuted in 2022, there was very little hope in the bullpen besides him. Now, the Twins have a bonafide army with Griffin Jax and Brock Stewart headlining the group that remains a top 5 bullpen (and top 2 in strikeouts). Durán would only push that group into elite territory, but right now the Twins need to be asking what they need more. 

Of course, this is a pipe dream. When asked about this possibility last year, Rocco Baldelli poured some cold water. “I daydream about him closing big games for us. I don't daydream about him starting.” And more than that, how can one want to get rid of the league’s most epic closer entrance

It might be too late to convert Durán into a full-blown starter for 2024, especially with the Twins wanting to be careful with his injury as he returns. But unless the Twins have other plans to bolster their back end rotation, they might need to have a serious conversation going into 2025. 

---

What do you think? Should Durán become a starter? Sound off in the comments.

View full article

[Mark G]

It is an intriguing thought for a team that has spent years turning starters into relievers, but I would much prefer using him as a 2 inning closer than a 5 inning starter; we have enough of those already.  

My motto is, and always has been, "if it ain't broke, don't fix it!"  Let the man do what he does well.  

[DJL44]

Sure, they can option him to the minors and start their standard build-up program for starting pitchers. He'll be ready in 2026 or 2027.

[Patzky]

13 minutes ago, Mark G said:

It is an intriguing thought for a team that has spent years turning starters into relievers, but I would much prefer using him as a 2 inning closer than a 5 inning starter; we have enough of those already.  

My motto is, and always has been, "if it ain't broke, don't fix it!"  Let the man do what he does well.  

Enough five inning starters will eventually increase the need for a two inning closer.

[nova_twins]

He moved to the bullpen because the Twins knew his arm/shoulder wouldn't make it as a starter. Zero chance the Twins consider this in any way, ever. 

[minman1982]

I don't think moving Duran out of the bullpen makes any sense. Having him potentially available every day (or every other day) is going to be far more useful to this team than another 5-inning starter. Having a bullpen headlined by Duran, Jax, and Stewart is a huge advantage late in the game. With that said, I could see using Duran (or Jax) as an opener in a must win game. If the choices are start Paddack or open with Duran, I would probably open with Duran.

Are there any updates on Canterino? I know he hurt his shoulder back in March but haven't heard anything since. Maybe he can find a spot on the team. It is possible possible that Varland does some work in St. Paul and comes back to contribute later this season. Maybe he takes the long bullpen type role again. If you are looking for a 5-inning starter, there will certainly be something available that won't cost much down the road. While I dream of the Twins making a splashy trade for a true top end starter, I am not holding my breath.

[Eris]

There are a number of unknowns. If he can handle the workload of being a starter, he will be more valuable as a starter than a reliever—both in terms of team value and his own career financial value. 

[pierre75275]

AJ Puk was also starting for the Marlins, after being a reliever. Now they are moving him back to the pen after starting him was an unmitigated disaster, and that's being charitable. Not saying that would happen with Duran, I believe he is a better talent from the getgo, but I would stick with what works for Duran 

[wornsmooth]

1 hour ago, Patzky said:

Enough five inning starters will eventually increase the need for a two inning closer.

So true.

The Twins need a 7 innings plus starter. Not a 5 inning starter.

[JD-TWINS]

NO!

Projected by baseball pundits (7 of them) to be a Top 3-9 best reliever in the Game.

There are numerous reasons why it isn’t a good move - chiefly, he’s EXCELLENT as a closer & his health is better maintained throwing 65-70 innings Full Out!

Nobody is talking about Jax or Stewart being a starter……….really don’t understand the intrigue with Duran moving into the rotation?

[Jeff K]

Should the Twins move Duran to a starting pitcher role?  No.  Stated differently, NO.  Put another way; Heck NO!

[Joe A. Preusser]

[Karbo]

25 minutes ago, Eris said:

There are a number of unknowns. If he can handle the workload of being a starter, he will be more valuable as a starter than a reliever—both in terms of team value and his own career financial value. 

I think he is more valuable as a shut down closer who can pitch 3+ times a week than a 5 inning starter. No way I take him out of the pen at this time!

[CRF]

No. No. No. No. No. Absolutely not!

[terrydactyls]

As long as we're playing "make believe", why not have Duran start one day a week and be a reliever the other six?

[TopGunn#22]

No.  And can we finally put this speculative thread that bubbles up occasionally to bed at last?  There are plenty of other topics we could discuss than to keep dredging this up.  Has Carlos Santana found his stroke?  Did getting a save "save" Caleb Theilbar's Twins career?  Trevor Bauer did WHAT in the Mexican League?  Should he join our rotation?  Duran is not going to be a SP ever again.  

[Squirrel]

This topic comes up a few times a year. Here’s the most recent thread on this in the forums.

 

[Patzky]

41 minutes ago, wornsmooth said:

So true.

The Twins need a 7 innings plus starter. Not a 5 inning starter.

I think +hope+ they have three. At least right now they have two for sure.

[Aggies7]

lol 

[Twodogs]

I think there is zero chance of this this season.  Now I'm not 100% against this type of stuff, but you make a decision like this in October and get the player ready for the transition in the off season.  You don't make a decision like this in May.

[Brandon]

If we are going to convert a reliever to a starter we should try it with a pitcher less likely to get injured like Jax or Sands.  But looking at our rotation it’s fine right now.  Woods-Richardson is off to a solid start and if he can keep it up or atleast keep a sub 4.00 era he is fine there.  Paddack is struggling as can be expected Ober has a 1.5 ERA in his last 4 starts throwing 24 innings.   Ryan has a 3.45 ERA and Lopez is a little off but he ain’t going anywhere.  I am not following our minors much, how is our AAA rotation doing?  I wouldn’t touch Duran’s role in the pen. 

[Fatbat]

Maybe a starter in a playoff bullpen game do or die but stretching him out to more than 2 innings could take awhile.  First stretch him out to 2-3 innings and see what happens.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Nobody is talking about Jax or Stewart being a starter……….really don’t understand the intrigue with Duran moving into the rotation?

Jax was a bad starting pitcher who revived his career in the bullpen. Stewart is old and has never been durable.

[umterp23]

Duran hasn't been a great 2-inning closer from what I can remember, could very easily be wrong.  Rehab assignment is 1 inning of work.  Don't like the idea, but hey don't like what mgmt has done with this team over the last few months either.  

[IndianaTwin]

The more helpful question at this point is, “Which current relievers have options available?”

[mnfireman]

17 minutes ago, umterp23 said:

Duran hasn't been a great 2-inning closer from what I can remember, could very easily be wrong.  Rehab assignment is 1 inning of work.  Don't like the idea, but hey don't like what mgmt has done with this team over the last few months either.  

In his career, not just as a closer, Duran has worked more than 1 inning 22 times, covering 41 innings. he has an ERA of 1.10 over those appearances with 54 K's. Thanks to the "Ghost Runner" rule, 5 of the 10 runs he's allowed in multiple inning appearances have been unearned. Not arguing for him to be a starter, just putting numbers out there.

[Guest]

No on Duran, he's just too dominant for an inning with two plus-plus pitches.  But the Twins might consider converting Jax, a starter in the minors.  Jax broadened his pitch repertoire and pitch mix to become a reliable late-inning reliever.  He may be the most ready of our late-inning relievers to go back to the rotation.  But the guy that deserves a shot at the rotation without affecting the late-inning crew is Cole Sands.  He came up as a starter, went to the 'pen, broadened his repertoire and mix and has really looked good this year.  Stretching Sands out now and leaving Duran/Jax/Stewart alone seems like the highest reward/risk option today.

[jmlease1]

I don't think it makes any sense to try to convert Duran back to the rotation on the fly this season. We'd be trying to get him stretched out in his remaining rehab assignments and asking him to get back to starting midseason after not having made a start in 3 years? Seems like a recipe for failure, especially for a player that has had injury issues in the past and was moved into the bullpen in part because of concerns about his ability to stay healthy.

He's converted successfully into one of the most dominant relievers in baseball. Whipping a change because we don't have significant depth for the rotation seems like a massive risk. And while no one is thrilled that Varland needed to go back down, SWR has been more than acceptable so far...so why exactly would we bump him from the rotation in favor of taking a moonshot on Duran in the rotation? Just to have depth?

Nah. Let SWR cook. Get Duran back as the best fireman in the business, shutting down the best part of the opposition lineup late in the game. 

[GNess]

I appreciate the argument of a RP being available 3x a week vs 1x a week as a SP. However, the massive pay disparity favoring SP undercuts the point. MLB Execs obviously value SP way more than RP as clearly evidenced by who gets paid the most.

[Doctor Gast]

That thought came across my mind in the beginning of the off-season, when it was obvious that we weren't going to sign a top-end SP to pair with Lopez in the postseason. I wasn't in favor of it but I thought since it's off-season it is something to discuss since we had a potential great pen w/o him by opening a thread. You did a much better job than I did Peter, yet the response was the same.

Most people believe starting ramping Duran up as a SP by sending him down to AAA. I'd be 100% against that. I'd absolutely against wasting his bullets down there, Much like having Varland down in AAA when he could be tearing it up at MLB in the BP. I'd also think it's a good idea to limit Paddack & SWR innings. Paddack's velo & spin has been decreasing, IMO dialing it back would do him some good. IMO Canterino needs to start out in the BP & should be brought up to MLB as soon as possible.