Twins Daily 2024 Top Prospects: #8 Charlee Soto, RHP

[Nick Nelson]

Rarely have the Twins invested draft capital in a high school pitcher like they did with Charlee Soto, who received a $2.5 million bonus as the 34th overall pick last summer. 

It's easy to see why the club is enamored with the big righty and his projectable upside, even if we've yet to see him pitch professionally.

Image courtesy of William Parmeter

Age: 18 (DOB: 8/31/2005)
2023 Stats: Did not pitch
ETA: 2027
2023 Ranking: NR

National Top 100 Rankings
BA: NR | MLB: NR | ATH: NR | BP: NR

What's To Like
At the time he was drafted last year, Charlee Soto was still only 17 years old, making him one of the youngest pitchers in the class. Despite his youth, the prep star out of Florida already has plenty of advanced traits.

His physical maturity and velocity are what really stand out. By the time he finished high school, Soto was already 6-foot-3 and over 200 lbs. His teenage growth spurt compelled the pitcher and shortstop to abandon his ambitions of being a two-way player, but his size helped him unlock new levels of heat on the mound.

"As his position solidified, so did his work in the weight room and he added significant muscle, especially in his lower half," wrote Melissa Lockard in a pre-draft profile on Soto for The Athletic. "He also took on a six-month program focused on ensuring the health and strength of his scapula."

The work he put in helped Soto's fastball velocity jump into the upper-90s. "He’s a power pitcher, through and through," said Lockard, "with a circle changeup that sits in the mid- to high-80s and a sharp slider." Keith Law, who ranked Soto as the fourth-best prep pitcher in the draft, rated all three as plus pitches, complimenting the changeup's "hard, fading action." 

"Ten years ago I would have argued for him as a top-10 pick," said Law, "but the history of high school pitchers works against him."

What's Left To Work On
The "history of high school pitchers" that Law referenced is what keeps optimism around Soto somewhat tempered, and is also what has generally kept Minnesota from taking these kinds of high-stakes gambles. Projecting pitchers from such a young age is exceedingly difficult. The flame-out rate is high, even for those who look like slam-dunks coming into the draft. Kohl Stewart is one example of the downside from recent Twins history.

There's much to like about Soto based on what we've seen from the showcases, what we've heard from the scouts, and what we've read about his commitment to the game. Until he actually steps on a professional mound and performs, none of that means a whole lot. Soto needs to prove he can physically withstand through the rigors of a pro regimen, and that his stuff will play against pro hitters. Those are no givens, for anyone, although the strength-building work he's done and the standout quality of his stuff make Soto a great bet to hit the ground running this year. 

What's Next
It will be very interesting to see how the organization handles Soto from a usage and workload standpoint. On the one hand, they've grown increasingly conservative about pushing minor-league arms in general; their most prominent prep pitching prospect, Marco Raya, has seen his workload strictly capped since being drafted. (Though he still managed to reach Double-A by age 20.) On the other hand, among Soto's most appealing traits were his "traditional starter's build" and all of the groundwork he's laid to be a durable workhorse type arm.

It would come as no surprise if the Twins start slow with Soto and let him dictate his own pace. Extended spring training and rookie ball could be in his near future. If the right-hander spends a decent chunk of the 2024 season at Single-A, that would be a huge step, and could put easily put him in the mix as the system's top pitching prospect, if not one of the better ones in all of baseball. We just need to see it.

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Twins Daily 2024 Top Prospects Countdown

20. Zebby Matthews, RHP
19. Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP
18. Ricardo Olivar, OF
17. Connor Prielipp, LHP
16. Matt Canterino, RHP
15. Yunior Severino, 1B
14. Danny De Andrade, SS
13. C.J. Culpepper, RHP
12. Kala'i Rosario, OF
11. Luke Keaschall, 2B
10. Tanner Schobel, 2B
9. Brandon Winokur, OF
8. Charlee Soto, RHP

Check back on Monday when we reveal our No. 7 prospect! For now, let's hear your thoughts about Soto and what this season will hold for him.

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[Mike Sixel]

I have doubts about HS pitchers, everyone should. I'm a bit surprised they picked him here, and not later given that. But, he's got the stuff and size to be very good if he works out. I mean, if this was an IFA, he'd have been the highest paid guy for sure......so maybe it makes more sense in that context. Either way, he's an exciting pick.

[DJL44]

I am always skeptical of amateur radar gun readings. There is a big difference between hitting max velocity in a showcase and doing it over the course of an MLB season while hitting your spots consistently.

[Nick Nelson]

7 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I am always skeptical of amateur radar gun readings. There is a big difference between hitting max velocity in a showcase and doing it over the course of an MLB season while hitting your spots consistently.

And the big knock on Soto from almost every evaluator was the limited data. It was really hard to get eyes on him outside of these showcases. So eager to actually see him in games! 

[Karbo]

He may look like a sure thing, but to rank him this high, with NO pro experience, seems like a dream to me. I just hope he doesn't read this article. An awful lot of pressure on him if he does.

[MN_ExPat]

13 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I am always skeptical of amateur radar gun readings. There is a big difference between hitting max velocity in a showcase and doing it over the course of an MLB season while hitting your spots consistently.

100% concur, the crucible of baseball will either temper him or break him, we shall see.  Although just to play devil's advocate a little... there's nothing to say he won't be able to accomplish that. 

As a father to a son pitching in college, I'm always more than a little willing to try and find positives in the best athletes on the field 😉, however, time will tell.

[nicksaviking]

I've struggled to get excited over Soto just because HS pitcher = crapshoot in my mind.

But I mean I shouldn't. The best pitcher the Twins have developed in the last twenty years was a HS kid drafted two picks ahead of him 11 years prior.

The only other HS pitchers they drafted in between in similar spots were Landon Leach and Chase Petty. Leach didn't pan out but Petty was good enough to get Sonny Gray and reached AA as a 20-year-old. Maybe you throw Enlow in that mix, even though he was drafted a round after Leech, he was given the bigger bonus. Still, it's a better hit rate than you'd expect.

[roger]

Couple questions, Nick.

One, do we know why he didn't pitch at all last summer after the draft?

Considering you have him at #8, there must be a lot to like.  How would you compare him to the hard thrower they drafted a year ago before trading him to Cincinnati?  Would you rate him an equal prospect?  Better?  Not as good? 

 

[Dman]

Lot's of different opinions on Soto, but as mentioned he wasn't seen a lot.  Still in most mocks he was in the 20 to 30 range which is where the Twins took him.  I loved the pick when they made it.  He is big, fairly filled out and looks ready at a young age to keep moving.

Lot's of questions about the fastball shape and whether it will play at higher levels.  I am very interested to see how he does this coming year and I still like the pick and going for a high upside arm.  Wouldn't mind them doing that again this year, high school or college arm.

For all the concern about high school arms Miami doubled down on them and Cleveland gave Clemmy an above slot bonus in the second round to get him to sign. Pitchers are always tough calls especially early in the draft, but I liked the Soto pick and hope he's another ace level arm in time.

[awmonahan]

Our pitching development group has been great at tweaking guys to get the most out of them. I'm curious to see what they can do with someone who has most of what you scout for, but little experience.

System aside, wishing Charlee the best as year one starts for him.

[Elite Benchwarmer]

I understand the risk and hesitation regarding drafting HS SP.  However, I appreciate that the Twins are occasionally willing to take a risk on a high upside SP.  #1 SP are (IMO) the most valuable commodity in baseball.  Having control of a #1 type SP for 4-5 years would be a major catalyst to a championship-level team.

I can dream!

[Fatbat]

49 minutes ago, roger said:

Couple questions, Nick.

One, do we know why he didn't pitch at all last summer after the draft?

Considering you have him at #8, there must be a lot to like.  How would you compare him to the hard thrower they drafted a year ago before trading him to Cincinnati?  Would you rate him an equal prospect?  Better?  Not as good? 

 

Soto spent time after the draft at instructs and strength development.  He is/was still growing physically and no reason to have him pitch competitively and risk damaging that multimillion dollar arm. 

[Nashvilletwin]

So who in the top 20 might be available to help on the big league club if needed? It looks like the best bets are SWR, Severino, Martin and Lee (Festa isn’t quite there) and none of those are totally ready per se.  Of course, we still have Varland, Larnach and Miranda (former top 10s) and a few others, if necessary, outside the top 20 (Winder, Keirsey come to mind).  So I guess the “call-up” depth is pretty good at the moment. But I kinda get why we haven’t moved any near term guys at this point. 

[Guest]

3 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

And the big knock on Soto from almost every evaluator was the limited data. It was really hard to get eyes on him outside of these showcases. So eager to actually see him in games! 

Limited data should never be a reason for ranking an unproven, never professionally pitched player to be held down in the rankings!

[mikelink45]

So far I am unimpressed with the three in the top ten.  I would hope they would merit their ranks, but they are just speculation so far.  I will hope the next players are more proven and closer to being a viable help to the Twins in the next two seasons.  

[Linus]

7 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I am always skeptical of amateur radar gun readings. There is a big difference between hitting max velocity in a showcase and doing it over the course of an MLB season while hitting your spots consistently.

I e noticed this as well. I believe it was Kohl Stewart that was supposed to be this really hard thrower hitting mid to upper 90s. When he started pitching professionally his fastball was low 90s and nothing special. 

[Blyleven2011]

1 hour ago, Linus said:

I e noticed this as well. I believe it was Kohl Stewart that was supposed to be this really hard thrower hitting mid to upper 90s. When he started pitching professionally his fastball was low 90s and nothing special. 

You are correct  Stewart had a fastball in the upper 90's when drafted ...

What happened  I don't know  , petty drafted out of HS is going well for Cincinnati farm and I hope the same for Soto   ...

Bring him along slowly as he still fills out , don't wreck the arm , 

[jmlease1]

I would not have ranked Soto this high. Yes, he's got huge upside and a ton of talent, but if if the gods have come off the mountain and blessed him by turning his arm into a thunderbolt...he's literally never thrown a professional pitch. So until he passes the lemon test, he shouldn't be in the top ten.

There's a lot of things to like about him: the fastball looks great already and he's already made more progress on refining two off-speed pitches than some pitchers have done at 22, but he still hasn't shown he can get professional hitters out at all. He's a fine risk to take with the 34th pick, but he's also a huge risk because there are so many hurdles for high school pitchers to leap over.

I like him. I'm fine with the Twins picking him. I love his potential and upside, but he's not the #8 prospect in the Twins organization for me. I don't believe in valuing projection (aka, hope) above all, and the fact that he didn't even throw an inning is mildly worrisome. I expect he'll pitch extended spring training and then rookie ball and then maybe we can do an actual evaluation, but right now this is smoke and mirrors to get him this high, and there might be something else in that smoke.

[High heat]

9 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I am always skeptical of amateur radar gun readings. There is a big difference between hitting max velocity in a showcase and doing it over the course of an MLB season while hitting your spots consistently.

Yes showcases are like the NFL draft combine.  Some guys look great in the underwear Olympics but skills never translate.  Some guys don’t put up great # but are great on the field.  
 

Thays why teams are straying away from HS arms.  A kid can throw gas in a t shirt and shorts but once he has to face live professional hitters, throw for an inning and sit for a half innning and go out and do it again th fastball losses zip the breaking ball hangs and the change up doesn’t have much change.  
 

I wouldn’t have ranked Soto so high without pitching but prospect list are just for selling hopes and dreams so I get that.

[Fatbat]

When young guys go to instructs, is there a large amount of data that is cataloged on every pitch a guy like Soto would throw? I picture him in a lab with a coach 🥼interpreting the data to refine delivery and build the skills to add a pitch and sequence the whole arsenal. 
I would imagine the whole process means more than a game situation where he threw 63 pitches got 7Ks, 3 pop outs, 4 ground balls. Gave up 2 singles and a double…. 
Hard data probably means more than game experience at this point? 

[SteveLV]

I mentioned this in a thread a few weeks ago.

I was watching video of Soto and something struck me.  I went back and watched videos of Dwight Gooden pitching, and then back to Soto.  Very similar deliveries and stature.  

Hope Soto turns out like Gooden did!

[DocBauer]

Can't wait to see this kid throw this year. Smart, classy, hard working, big and strong with velocity that sits mid 90's at least with a pair of at least decent secondary offerings to work with. And he'll oy be 18yo for most all of the season.

Going to disagree somewhat on scouts and FO not having much information on HS arms. Top kids are scouted for a couple of years these days. And many of them go to showcase and tournaments. So they are watched and poked and prodded.

But still, I don't know your information is as complete as a college prospect as it's got to be much harder to accurately value the levels of competition for HS players.

And then you also have the injury factor on top of inexperience and less "prove it" time with your secondary offerings. But if you could build a HS pitching prospect, it would probably be someone like Soto. 

 

[Eris]

Looking back at the 2017 draft, after Lewis, 4 pitchers were selected. Hunter Greene had TJ and is still trying to establish himself. MacKenzie Gore has had control issues but seems to be getting things together after being traded to Washington. Kyle Wright injured his shoulder and Brendan McKay injured his elbow. Wright and McKay were college pitchers and likely will not have successful MLB careers. SSS, but this a 50% flameout because of injuries. 

[terrydactyls]

10 hours ago, High heat said:

 

I wouldn’t have ranked Soto so high without pitching but prospect list are just for selling hopes and dreams so I get that.

Exactly!!  He's ranked #8 as a "prospect", not as a near-term asset.

[DJL44]

9 hours ago, SteveLV said:

I mentioned this in a thread a few weeks ago.

I was watching video of Soto and something struck me.  I went back and watched videos of Dwight Gooden pitching, and then back to Soto.  Very similar deliveries and stature.  

Hope Soto turns out like Gooden did!

I wish Soto is as successful on the mound as Gooden but I hope his life turns out better than Dr. K.

[Major League Ready]

18 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

So who in the top 20 might be available to help on the big league club if needed? It looks like the best bets are SWR, Severino, Martin and Lee (Festa isn’t quite there) and none of those are totally ready per se.  Of course, we still have Varland, Larnach and Miranda (former top 10s) and a few others, if necessary, outside the top 20 (Winder, Keirsey come to mind).  So I guess the “call-up” depth is pretty good at the moment. But I kinda get why we haven’t moved any near term guys at this point. 

A healthy Matt Canterino has a decent shot at the big league club this year.

[bird]

16 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

So far I am unimpressed with the three in the top ten.  I would hope they would merit their ranks, but they are just speculation so far.  I will hope the next players are more proven and closer to being a viable help to the Twins in the next two seasons.  

If TD writers were relying on their own eyeballs in producing these reports and rankings, I certainly wouldn’t be reading this stuff. Fortunately, they’re pouring over things written by people with more expertise, and when available, doing a terrific job IMO of analyzing the stats when available. As a long-time reader here, my observation is that their track record is nothing short of superb.

[bird]

2 hours ago, Eris said:

Looking back at the 2017 draft, after Lewis, 4 pitchers were selected. Hunter Greene had TJ and is still trying to establish himself. MacKenzie Gore has had control issues but seems to be getting things together after being traded to Washington. Kyle Wright injured his shoulder and Brendan McKay injured his elbow. Wright and McKay were college pitchers and likely will not have successful MLB careers. SSS, but this a 50% flameout because of injuries. 

Speaks to the argument that, all things being equal talent-wise, take the position player. Although, in the Twin’s case, they made the right choice but got a little unlucky on the injury front.

[mikelink45]

2 hours ago, bird said:

If TD writers were relying on their own eyeballs in producing these reports and rankings, I certainly wouldn’t be reading this stuff. Fortunately, they’re pouring over things written by people with more expertise, and when available, doing a terrific job IMO of analyzing the stats when available. As a long-time reader here, my observation is that their track record is nothing short of superb.

I do not question their work and their opinions - I simply have a personal bias against putting people in the ratings until they show something in professional competition.  It will not change the rankings and it does not demean the writer - I just like to share my thought and see if anyone else feels that way.  

[madtowntwin]

The thing that struck me about this pick as well as our #1 last year is the mutual physicality. You cannot coach major league bodies such as these...Look at the young pitcher we recently received from Seattle in trade for example. Over 6" and what - 180 lbs?? So many college players are drafted every year that look so frail.  Ability with such physicality essentially leaves 2 symbiotic variables - maturation / development & "coachability." Their interviews thus far would indicate potential sky's the limit ability. Fingers crossed. Win Twins.