Twins Daily 2024 Top Prospects: #8 Charlee Soto, RHP

I am always skeptical of amateur radar gun readings. There is a big difference between hitting max velocity in a showcase and doing it over the course of an MLB season while hitting your spots consistently.

13 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I am always skeptical of amateur radar gun readings. There is a big difference between hitting max velocity in a showcase and doing it over the course of an MLB season while hitting your spots consistently.

100% concur, the crucible of baseball will either temper him or break him, we shall see.  Although just to play devil's advocate a little... there's nothing to say he won't be able to accomplish that. 

As a father to a son pitching in college, I'm always more than a little willing to try and find positives in the best athletes on the field 😉, however, time will tell.

Couple questions, Nick.

One, do we know why he didn't pitch at all last summer after the draft?

Considering you have him at #8, there must be a lot to like.  How would you compare him to the hard thrower they drafted a year ago before trading him to Cincinnati?  Would you rate him an equal prospect?  Better?  Not as good? 

Our pitching development group has been great at tweaking guys to get the most out of them. I'm curious to see what they can do with someone who has most of what you scout for, but little experience.

System aside, wishing Charlee the best as year one starts for him.

I understand the risk and hesitation regarding drafting HS SP.  However, I appreciate that the Twins are occasionally willing to take a risk on a high upside SP.  #1 SP are (IMO) the most valuable commodity in baseball.  Having control of a #1 type SP for 4-5 years would be a major catalyst to a championship-level team.

I can dream!

49 minutes ago, roger said:

Couple questions, Nick.

One, do we know why he didn't pitch at all last summer after the draft?

Considering you have him at #8, there must be a lot to like.  How would you compare him to the hard thrower they drafted a year ago before trading him to Cincinnati?  Would you rate him an equal prospect?  Better?  Not as good? 

 

Soto spent time after the draft at instructs and strength development.  He is/was still growing physically and no reason to have him pitch competitively and risk damaging that multimillion dollar arm. 

So who in the top 20 might be available to help on the big league club if needed? It looks like the best bets are SWR, Severino, Martin and Lee (Festa isn’t quite there) and none of those are totally ready per se.  Of course, we still have Varland, Larnach and Miranda (former top 10s) and a few others, if necessary, outside the top 20 (Winder, Keirsey come to mind).  So I guess the “call-up” depth is pretty good at the moment. But I kinda get why we haven’t moved any near term guys at this point. 

7 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I am always skeptical of amateur radar gun readings. There is a big difference between hitting max velocity in a showcase and doing it over the course of an MLB season while hitting your spots consistently.

I e noticed this as well. I believe it was Kohl Stewart that was supposed to be this really hard thrower hitting mid to upper 90s. When he started pitching professionally his fastball was low 90s and nothing special. 

1 hour ago, Linus said:

I e noticed this as well. I believe it was Kohl Stewart that was supposed to be this really hard thrower hitting mid to upper 90s. When he started pitching professionally his fastball was low 90s and nothing special. 

You are correct  Stewart had a fastball in the upper 90's when drafted ...

What happened  I don't know  , petty drafted out of HS is going well for Cincinnati farm and I hope the same for Soto   ...

Bring him along slowly as he still fills out , don't wreck the arm , 

I would not have ranked Soto this high. Yes, he's got huge upside and a ton of talent, but if if the gods have come off the mountain and blessed him by turning his arm into a thunderbolt...he's literally never thrown a professional pitch. So until he passes the lemon test, he shouldn't be in the top ten.

There's a lot of things to like about him: the fastball looks great already and he's already made more progress on refining two off-speed pitches than some pitchers have done at 22, but he still hasn't shown he can get professional hitters out at all. He's a fine risk to take with the 34th pick, but he's also a huge risk because there are so many hurdles for high school pitchers to leap over.

I like him. I'm fine with the Twins picking him. I love his potential and upside, but he's not the #8 prospect in the Twins organization for me. I don't believe in valuing projection (aka, hope) above all, and the fact that he didn't even throw an inning is mildly worrisome. I expect he'll pitch extended spring training and then rookie ball and then maybe we can do an actual evaluation, but right now this is smoke and mirrors to get him this high, and there might be something else in that smoke.

9 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I am always skeptical of amateur radar gun readings. There is a big difference between hitting max velocity in a showcase and doing it over the course of an MLB season while hitting your spots consistently.

Yes showcases are like the NFL draft combine.  Some guys look great in the underwear Olympics but skills never translate.  Some guys don’t put up great # but are great on the field.  
 

Thays why teams are straying away from HS arms.  A kid can throw gas in a t shirt and shorts but once he has to face live professional hitters, throw for an inning and sit for a half innning and go out and do it again th fastball losses zip the breaking ball hangs and the change up doesn’t have much change.  
 

I wouldn’t have ranked Soto so high without pitching but prospect list are just for selling hopes and dreams so I get that.

When young guys go to instructs, is there a large amount of data that is cataloged on every pitch a guy like Soto would throw? I picture him in a lab with a coach 🥼interpreting the data to refine delivery and build the skills to add a pitch and sequence the whole arsenal. 
I would imagine the whole process means more than a game situation where he threw 63 pitches got 7Ks, 3 pop outs, 4 ground balls. Gave up 2 singles and a double…. 
Hard data probably means more than game experience at this point? 

I mentioned this in a thread a few weeks ago.

I was watching video of Soto and something struck me.  I went back and watched videos of Dwight Gooden pitching, and then back to Soto.  Very similar deliveries and stature.  

Hope Soto turns out like Gooden did!

9 hours ago, SteveLV said:

I mentioned this in a thread a few weeks ago.

I was watching video of Soto and something struck me.  I went back and watched videos of Dwight Gooden pitching, and then back to Soto.  Very similar deliveries and stature.  

Hope Soto turns out like Gooden did!

I wish Soto is as successful on the mound as Gooden but I hope his life turns out better than Dr. K.

18 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

So who in the top 20 might be available to help on the big league club if needed? It looks like the best bets are SWR, Severino, Martin and Lee (Festa isn’t quite there) and none of those are totally ready per se.  Of course, we still have Varland, Larnach and Miranda (former top 10s) and a few others, if necessary, outside the top 20 (Winder, Keirsey come to mind).  So I guess the “call-up” depth is pretty good at the moment. But I kinda get why we haven’t moved any near term guys at this point. 

A healthy Matt Canterino has a decent shot at the big league club this year.

16 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

So far I am unimpressed with the three in the top ten.  I would hope they would merit their ranks, but they are just speculation so far.  I will hope the next players are more proven and closer to being a viable help to the Twins in the next two seasons.  

If TD writers were relying on their own eyeballs in producing these reports and rankings, I certainly wouldn’t be reading this stuff. Fortunately, they’re pouring over things written by people with more expertise, and when available, doing a terrific job IMO of analyzing the stats when available. As a long-time reader here, my observation is that their track record is nothing short of superb.

2 hours ago, Eris said:

Looking back at the 2017 draft, after Lewis, 4 pitchers were selected. Hunter Greene had TJ and is still trying to establish himself. MacKenzie Gore has had control issues but seems to be getting things together after being traded to Washington. Kyle Wright injured his shoulder and Brendan McKay injured his elbow. Wright and McKay were college pitchers and likely will not have successful MLB careers. SSS, but this a 50% flameout because of injuries. 

Speaks to the argument that, all things being equal talent-wise, take the position player. Although, in the Twin’s case, they made the right choice but got a little unlucky on the injury front.

The thing that struck me about this pick as well as our #1 last year is the mutual physicality. You cannot coach major league bodies such as these...Look at the young pitcher we recently received from Seattle in trade for example. Over 6" and what - 180 lbs?? So many college players are drafted every year that look so frail.  Ability with such physicality essentially leaves 2 symbiotic variables - maturation / development & "coachability." Their interviews thus far would indicate potential sky's the limit ability. Fingers crossed. Win Twins.