The Jorge Polanco Trade Fails the Simplest of Tests

[John Bonnes]

After making the second round of the postseason for the first time in 20 years, the Twins' offseason goal was to improve. This trade makes them worse. We can save our praise until (if?) it leads to something more.

Image courtesy of © David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports

The optimist's view of Monday night's trade (which sent Jorge Polanco to the Mariners) is that, for a somewhat expensive, potentially redundant, oft-injured but talented veteran infielder, the Twins are getting:

1. A top 100 High-A prospect,
2. An effective, high-to-medium-leverage reliever,
3. A banged-up but formerly solid starting pitcher, and
4. An intriguing throw-in prospect arm.

That is solid value. That is the kind of value levelheaded front offices get for a player one or two years away from becoming a free agent. It is the move a smart front office makes.

It is also the move a front office makes when "Plan A" goes out the window.

There are numerous positive impacts. It allows them to ensure that Edouard Julien will play every day. The Twins will gain payroll room to spend on other players. If Byron Buxton can play in center field, it opens up a spot at designated hitter for a further signing. These are all positive effects, which is why the deal was made.

The problem was that "Plan A" was to "make the 2024 team better." Finding a deal that made next year's team better has been Derek Falvey's repeatedly stated goal this offseason. It was the correct goal, given that this team showed they are already the cream of the AL Central, winning the division by nine games last year. After snapping an 0-18 postseason loss streak, the next step was to become a team favored in an ALDS matchup.

That wasn't going to be easy. Losing Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda to free agency would be tough enough. Losing another $30-40 million in payroll due to a TV-and-streaming clusterfunderburk made things considerably harder.

A slow-moving free agent market hasn't helped. Nor has the fact that some of the better trade candidates belong to other AL Central teams, who are cautious about making deals within the division. Finally, there have also been some unforced errors, like offering Kyle Farmer about $6 million via arbitration in the hopes he would still be in demand on the trade market after being tendered. Given all that, it isn't surprising that the Twins have fallen short of their stated goal this offseason.

Still, given the objective of improving the team, this deal is a detour--a circumbendibus. It may be a deal a rebuilding team makes. It may be a deal that a re-shuffling team makes. It may be a deal that gives an organization the flexibility it needs in a tough situation to find deals that do make the team better.

Maybe this is the one step backward before the two steps forward. I'm assured by Twins' sources that is the plan. Given this management team's knack for making big moves late in the offseason, they deserve that benefit of the doubt.

But we can heap praise on those moves when they happen; there's no need to pre-celebrate any more than we need to pre-commiserate. This trade just made the 2024 Twins worse.

---

What's your temperature about the deal this morning? What next step could make you feel better or worse about it?

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[Karbo]

I agree that short term this makes them worse. Just a handful of days to go til ST starts so I'll wait and see if anything else comes of this trade. As is I give the FO a C- to D+. Polo was one of my favorite players of all time. He was consistently good in the clutch and being a SH played well. I wish him all the luck!

[Fezig]

1) I don't hate the trade, then again I don't love it.

Pro: This will make the Julien v Lee battle for second base entertaining. Having Lee bake in the minors doesn't make sense if he's ready to go. Got another top 100 prospect in return.

Con: Another middling starter. Lost Polanco's leadership in the clubhouse. Lost Polanco's switch hitting. 

[CRF]

On it's own, this trade sure doesn't do much. If it leads to other deals...maybe. Hopefully, it does. 

[adjacent]

My humble opinion, it is not this trade what derails "Plan A". It is the decision (forced or  otherwise) to slash 30 million from payroll.

[Supfin99]

Wow I really couldn’t disagree with this view more. They trade a 30 yr old infielder from a position of depth n who has played a total of 184 games combined the last 2 seasons for solid reliever, a depth starter a slightly poorer version of our 3rd best prospect and an intriguing arm. This is a great trade that may actually have done both, improve a team now n in the future. 

[wabene]

Well I guess going in I'll know John's stance when I tune in to the next G&G during my morning ski (I did find some barely adequate snow on some public land, where's my winter? ☹️).

[Doctor Wu]

3 minutes ago, Supfin99 said:

Wow I really couldn’t disagree with this view more. They trade a 30 yr old infielder from a position of depth n who has played a total of 184 games combined the last 2 seasons for solid reliever, a depth starter a slightly poorer version of our 3rd best prospect and an intriguing arm. This is a great trade that may actually have done both, improve a team now n in the future. 

I agree. I don't think the trade makes us worse at all. Polanco was a very good player --- when he was healthy. But age and injury concerns, combined with the need to give our younger players and prospects more playing time  made him expendable. Plus, we got a good bullpen piece and a veteran pitcher who MAY shore up the starting rotation. The young prospects obviously won't factor in the mix this season, but I think we still improved the team with this trade. 

[Sean.h]

Either get a higher impact propect and make the future better or get a higher impact starter that makes the now better. This move does neither.

[Parfigliano]

8 minutes ago, Supfin99 said:

Wow I really couldn’t disagree with this view more. They trade a 30 yr old infielder from a position of depth n who has played a total of 184 games combined the last 2 seasons for solid reliever, a depth starter a slightly poorer version of our 3rd best prospect and an intriguing arm. This is a great trade that may actually have done both, improve a team now n in the future. 

Depth starter is a pretty generous description of DeScalfina.  I'd go with Bundyesque starter.

[wabene]

I hope they are not done I don't think enough was done to shore up the rotation. I love Polo, but this was the time to move him. Getting top of the rotation, controllable pitching for him was not happening. I am happy that Julien is the starting second baseman (Lee is not ready). It is also good that the DH is open for rotation. My question, can they somehow trade Anthony D (some bottom feeder has to want a what is now 4m starter for a bag of balls, which would then free up more cash) and use cash and some not top prospects to get a better pitcher? Unfortunately I don't think so, I think they are going for a righty bat. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

I would title this more like “There is still more to do.” Clearly this trade brought good value overall, but it did not bring the “high impact starter” that the front office has been saying is their focus all offseason.

They’ve now said they plan to reallocate the money into the roster, which to me means a right handed bat. That’s either a dh/1b option (of which there are many still available) or possibly an outfielder. That’ll be interesting to see what they do.

They haven’t yet acquired a playoff level starter. Lots of time this offseason to accomplish that too. 

[Doctor Gast]

The Twins were entering this off-season in good shape, They mainly needed a front-line SP. I didn't mind FO not doing anything during the off-season, I was afraid that they'd do something stupid, like this.

Polo was coming into his prime finally entering the season healthy, when that happens Polo would have a monster year. Polo has been our best clutch hitter and switch hitter to boot. I have sink in my gut much like '21 when FO punted while signing Happ, Shoemaker & Coulome' instead of going out & trading for a viable SP.

This trade has made us worse by weakening our INF & missing Polo's bat while doing nothing to contribute to our main needs of front-line SP & catching upgrades. I know Polo's time in MN was limited but now is not the time. We weren't over budget so why get rid of Polo? We may get to the postseason w/o Polo but where we will absolutely miss Polo is in the postseason. So far I grade this offseason as an F-.

The atmosphere of the fanbase is swelling, a perfect opportunity to make another Pablo Lopez-type trade (yes it was hard to trade Arraez but Arraez was fat & Lopez was an absolute need) to further grow the excitement. '21 there was some excitement after '20 & '19 and FO got some fans drunk on their Kool-Aid but when the reality from the Happ, Shoemaker & Coulome' signing took effect, it killed any excitement that was gained & then some. Pohlads wonder why attendance is low. This is why. Post Kool-Aid hangover, it's hard to overcome

Hats off to SEA for trimming their unneeded fat & filling a gaping need that improves their chances of advancing into the postseason. We lost a great clubhouse guy, clutch switch hitter & above average, 2Bman & gained nothing. That's not how trades are supposed to work. It's time to get rid of this FO.

 

 

[Brett]

Seems like we raised the floor slightly but didn’t raise the ceiling. Does the presence of another top 100 prospect make it easier to trade one of them for a playoff-level starter? Or do we sign a TV deal and grab Jordan Montgomery?

mmm…something must be cooking on the Hot Stove.

[Kenny Powers]

20 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Depth starter is a pretty generous description of DeScalfina.  I'd go with Bundyesque starter.

This is where my head is at.  And I'd also change the description some posters are using of "solid bullpen arm" for Topa to "had one good year".  I personally wouldn't trust he can repeat that.  He's 33 years old and has a history of arm problems.  IMO, guys like DeScalfina and Topa are normally floating around out there as Free Agents to be had for nothing (think Matt Magill or Brock Stewart).  Both guys are older than Polanco which is disappointing to me as I hoped to get back some building blocks vs. patches. 

So to me, this was basically trading Polanco for a top 100 prospect.  I'm ok with that...but it's another one of the Falvey trades where I feel like we might have given up more value than we received.  IDK.  Obviously we'll see how it plays out.  It just feels like thrift store pick up on our part to me. 

[TwinsDr2021]

I am tore on the trade, I understand and agree with trading guys towards the end of their contract, it is what teams in the Twins situation must do. So it was good that they got a highly rated prospect, but I guess trading for two pitchers that are 33 and older doesn't do much for me. It looks like the Twins tried to play the trade both ways, salary dump and getting prospects and succeeded in neither very well. Polanco was never bringing back names people were hoping for and probably wasn't going to bring back more prospects either. IMO the Twins should give 2B to Lee and see how it goes (unless he is terrible in the spring) give Julien DH and back up plan for Lee.

[Karbo]

The Pioneer Press is reporting that they get 8 mol in cash. If they can use that on a quality starter or a really good RH bat then I can call it a good trade.

[MGX]

4 hours ago, Sean.h said:

Either get a higher impact propect and make the future better or get a higher impact starter that makes the now better. This move does neither.

Of course we'd all like one of those options, but Polanco wasn't enough to bring in either. While this isn't an exciting trade it is a solid trade. 

I disagree with the idea put forth in the writeup that this hurts our '24 team. Our #1 need this off-season was SP depth.  This trade provides a MLB capable starter even if we were hoping for better than him & a solid BP arm along with a couple of prospects.

[Cory Engelhardt]

54 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

The Twins were entering this off-season in good shape, They mainly needed a front-line SP. I didn't mind FO not doing anything during the off-season, I was afraid that they'd do something stupid, like this.

Polo was coming into his prime finally entering the season healthy, when that happens Polo would have a monster year. Polo has been our best clutch hitter and switch hitter to boot. I have sink in my gut much like '21 when FO punted while signing Happ, Shoemaker & Coulome' instead of going out & trading for a viable SP.

This trade has made us worse by weakening our INF & missing Polo's bat while doing nothing to contribute to our main needs of front-line SP & catching upgrades. I know Polo's time in MN was limited but now is not the time. We weren't over budget so why get rid of Polo? We may get to the postseason w/o Polo but where we will absolutely miss Polo is in the postseason. So far I grade this offseason as an F-.

The atmosphere of the fanbase is swelling, a perfect opportunity to make another Pablo Lopez-type trade (yes it was hard to trade Arraez but Arraez was fat & Lopez was an absolute need) to further grow the excitement. '21 there was some excitement after '20 & '19 and FO got some fans drunk on their Kool-Aid but when the reality from the Happ, Shoemaker & Coulome' signing took effect, it killed any excitement that was gained & then some. Pohlads wonder why attendance is low. This is why. Post Kool-Aid hangover, it's hard to overcome

Hats off to SEA for trimming their unneeded fat & filling a gaping need that improves their chances of advancing into the postseason. We lost a great clubhouse guy, clutch switch hitter & above average, 2Bman & gained nothing. That's not how trades are supposed to work. It's time to get rid of this FO.

 

 

Catching upgrade? How is that a need?

[HrbieFan]

1 hour ago, Supfin99 said:

Wow I really couldn’t disagree with this view more. They trade a 30 yr old infielder from a position of depth n who has played a total of 184 games combined the last 2 seasons for solid reliever, a depth starter a slightly poorer version of our 3rd best prospect and an intriguing arm. This is a great trade that may actually have done both, improve a team now n in the future. 

I woke up with this opinion.  Didn't like it last night, but availability is huge. Polanco might finally be healthy, but the Twins have to gamble. Wish we had snagged an upside SP, but a 7th/8th inning RP and a potential #5 SP helps us more than a 2B. Is Castro back to backup at CF and 2B? 

[arby58]

48 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

The Twins were entering this off-season in good shape, They mainly needed a front-line SP. I didn't mind FO not doing anything during the off-season, I was afraid that they'd do something stupid, like this.

Polo was coming into his prime finally entering the season healthy, when that happens Polo would have a monster year. Polo has been our best clutch hitter and switch hitter to boot. I have sink in my gut much like '21 when FO punted while signing Happ, Shoemaker & Coulome' instead of going out & trading for a viable SP.

This trade has made us worse by weakening our INF & missing Polo's bat while doing nothing to contribute to our main needs of front-line SP & catching upgrades. I know Polo's time in MN was limited but now is not the time. We weren't over budget so why get rid of Polo? We may get to the postseason w/o Polo but where we will absolutely miss Polo is in the postseason. So far I grade this offseason as an F-.

ESPN  grades the trade A- for the Twins and C for the Mariners. Apparently a lot of baseball people aren't as high on Polanco, after various injuries, 'coming into his prime.' If the Twins are going to promote Lee, there simply aren't enough at bats at second base for Lee and Julien plus Polanco. This is when his trade value is highest, given his two years of team control. Polanco was going to be moved.

The relief pitcher the Twins got strikes me as the key piece (besides the top 100 prospect). It suggests they plan to leave Varland in the rotation rather than putting him in 7th or 8th inning roles (which is where the Mariners used Topa). The back end of the bullpen, with Stewart, Theilbar, Jax, Topa, and Duran, looks strong and deep.

[wabene]

1 minute ago, HrbieFan said:

I woke up with this opinion.  Didn't like it last night, but availability is huge. Polanco might finally be healthy, but the Twins have to gamble. Wish we had snagged an upside SP, but a 7th/8th inning RP and a potential #5 SP helps us more than a 2B. Is Castro back to backup at CF and 2B? 

Farmer hits leftys and plays a nice second base. Clubhouse leader too. 

[akmanak]

Not surprised and it is the "Twins way."

[wabene]

1 minute ago, akmanak said:

Not surprised and it is the "Twins way."

Common burner alert

[weneedneshek]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

They haven’t yet acquired a playoff level starter. Lots of time this offseason to accomplish that too. 

I don't know if we're getting one at this point, not during the offseason anyway. Desclafani will be on the roster unless we miraculously offload him on someone else. This FO is not the type to waive him and eat the $4M without giving him significant runway first. As of now he is on track to make double digit starts for this team in 2024, excuse me while I hurl.

[Cory Engelhardt]

2 minutes ago, weneedneshek said:

I don't know if we're getting one at this point, not during the offseason anyway. Desclafani will be on the roster unless we miraculously offload him on someone else. This FO is not the type to waive him and eat the $4M without giving him significant runway first. As of now he is on track to make double digit starts for this team in 2024, excuse me while I hurl.

I don’t know how someone could say he is a better option to start than Varland is. Maybe he will make starts, but right now he is long relief at best right? Unless they do start with a 6 man rotation. Even then, the “rope” for him being around isn’t long

[DaveW44]

The López trade last year moved everyone in the rotation down a notch, strengthening the rotation. You saw what happened. 
this trade moves everyone in the rotation up a notch. 
im not optimistic on our rotation this year if this is their big move. 

[weneedneshek]

3 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I don’t know how someone could say he is a better option to start than Varland is. Maybe he will make starts, but right now he is long relief at best right? Unless they do start with a 6 man rotation. Even then, the “rope” for him being around isn’t long

I don't know how someone could either, but Varland has options. That simple fact could have Desclafani starting quite a bit more games than anyone of us would like to see.

If their plan for him is indeed long relief and he is now the highest paid member of our bullpen, that is also laughable.

Still time for them to change my mind but this move has limited a lot of options that were feasible before it happened. I do not like the implications of it

[wabene]

26 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I don’t know how someone could say he is a better option to start than Varland is. Maybe he will make starts, but right now he is long relief at best right? Unless they do start with a 6 man rotation. Even then, the “rope” for him being around isn’t long

Tony Disco will be starting, Falvey said he likes him anywhere in the rotation. They do not do 6 man rotations. Louie will be in St Paul waiting his turn. Many fans will grumble about him wasting his bullets there. 

[Whitey333]

Not much of a great trade for Twins at this point.  Desclafani is probably a one year fill in as he is a free agent at the end of 2024 season.  Plus he's making around 12 million so I doubt they will extend him.  Also the reliever we got is ok but realistically he's only had one decent year.  He is injury prone.  Sounds like a typical Twin.  The 6-8 million in cash may be the best IF Twins use it to acquire some more talent and not just to improve the bottom line.  Yes it was time to move Polanco.  At this time has it made the 2024 team better. No way.