The Jorge Polanco Trade Fails the Simplest of Tests

[Doctor Gast]

23 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

The 2024 draft has a number of strong prospects in the college ranks. That's kind of what I'm expecting in either the 1st round or comp round a. But more is better :)

Very true. But when will that prospect be ready for MLB? Maybe '26 at the soonest. Vazquez is gone after '25, how does that help? I don't trust the Twins catching coaching staff to offer much more development than what you can get from YouTube catching tutorials. Vazquez has much more to give a prospect which is very hard to find anywhere else.

And I still don't trust FO to sign a catcher even when it's obvious it's the best choice.

[JD-TWINS]

10 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Julien at first doesn't pair well with Kirilloff, since they are both left-handed batters. Julien and Lee aren't a great platoon option either, as Lee hasn't shown the ability (at least yet) to rake left handed pitching. That part still makes me wonder how it all shakes out - and reinforces my belief (and others on this board as well) that their primary target will be a right handed bat, either a corner outfielder or first baseman/DH type.

Julien/Farmer seems pretty straightforward at 2B.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I don't think starting pitching is better with adding Descalfini compared to last year with Gray. I wouldn't bet on Gray having another career year in 2024, but to truly improve the rotation I think more needs to be added AND/OR the internal guys (Ryan/Ober/Paddack) need to all improve over their 2023 versions. That's certainly possible.

DH, I think they add a right handed bat. JD Martinez would be great here, but there are other options too.

You’re absolutely correct in saying that DeScalfani in the rotation is not as good as having Gray.  However, Gray is no longer on the team.  DeSclafani is an excellent depth/floor setting piece that we didn’t have before, and he was basically free.  Gonzalez and Topa were the actual pieces in the trade.  Topa will fit into the bullpen very nicely and Gonzalez is a very tradable top 100 prospect.  

[Riverbrian]

7 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Julien was a Rookie - being platooned and struggling some v. LH pitching is pretty typical. Can probably expect similar results wit a bit of improvement over the next couple years - he’s 24.

IMO, one cannot be the 2nd best hitter on the Club and play 80 games.

”If Farmer or Correa get hurt……”, how about When Polanco gets hurt?

To me, no matter what other deals are made or not made, trading a guy from a position of depth and getting back $8M after trading $10.5M salary for 2 arms that cost $12.8M + a prospect of reasonable value ……..seems to be a smart move.

Budget is the only justification for the trade. If the budget says that this must happen... it must happen.

Julien as a replacement or "position of depth" is not justification. 

Is Polanco only going to play 80 games this year? You can argue if Polanco is the 2nd best hitter on the club or the 11th best hitter on the club. The opinion is going to be subjective. My opinion... Royce Lewis is the best hitter on the club and he didn't play 80 games either. Polanco is #2 in my opinion. If Correa and Buxton jump back to what they should be... I will re-rank accordingly. Either way... we gave up one of our best bats and we certainly didn't get much back to help our 2024 club... but I will reserve judgement because I assume that more moves are coming.

I didn't like the Garver trade and I expressed it at the time it happened but my complaints were premature because when it was all said and done... trading Garver got us out of the Donaldson contract and getting out of the Donaldson contract probably got us Correa so I am reserving judgement because I assume more moves are coming. But... as of today... we didn't significantly improve our pitching and our offense took a huge hit. 

If you are asking the question "how about when Polanco gets hurt" as a response to "If Farmer or Correa get hurt". You really don't understand my point. 

My point is this: You can set your opening day roster all pretty with a Julien/Farmer handcuff at 2B. You can Kirilloff/Miranda at 1B. You can Wallner/Whoever and it looks all pretty. The roster has that balance... everything is good... Now let's get through 162 games. My Point is that the prettiness of that perfect handcuffed roster goes away as soon as the injuries start. Once the injuries start and it will probably be as soon as April when they start happening... now you are signing Luplow types just to keep the platoon integrity in place. I don't want Miranda to be a short side platoon, I don't want Austin Martin to be a short side platoon. I want these players to develop the same as I'd like to see Julien, Kirilloff and Wallner develop.

I mentioned Farmer or Correa specifically just to point out that if either of those two get hurt... Julien loses his handcuff at 2B because Farmer is no longer available... he is either hurt or every day at SS for Correa. 

However... if you want to talk about "when Polanco gets hurt". You are just making my point. Players get hurt... you need your depth because they get hurt. Julien could get hurt... He might go Miranda on us in his 2nd year. The team is weaker without Polanco. This club has depth... I'm very excited about that. What do you do when you have depth... you add players like Polanco. Instead... we just subtracted. We lost a top end hitter and our depth isn't as deep anymore.  

Budget... OK... I get it... if this move was necessary because of budget. It has to be. If it's because we have infielders coming out of ears... it's ok to have them coming out of your ears. Let them come out of our ears. 

[Kenny Powers]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

IMO you're completely wrong. Starters who were worse than DeSclafini was last year are getting $15M+ deals this offseason and relievers like Topa are getting $8-10M a season. Pitching gets a premium.

Do some teams pay that?  Yes.  Does that apply to these guys?  Debatable.  

DeSclafani is almost 34 years old.  His last two seasons (combined):

23 starts.  Record:  4-10.  118 innings pitched.  96 Ks.  5.16 ERA.  1.37 WHIP.  4.43 FIP.  Is that worthy of a $15M+ deal?  If so, I would do a hard pass myself.

Topa is almost 33.  He had a decent year last year.  But looking at his historical stats, last year was an outlier.  I don't trust it.  Especially with his injury history.  He pitched the following innings leading up to last year:

2020 - 7.2 total

2021 - 18.1 total

2022 - 27 total

If he was durable and had a longer track record of success - yes, he might be worth what you say.  But I'm not seeing as is.  Looks like a Hyundai with 200,000 miles on it to me.  It might run fine now, but don't expect that to last...

 

[saviking]

3 hours ago, Kenny Powers said:

This is where my head is at.  And I'd also change the description some posters are using of "solid bullpen arm" for Topa to "had one good year".  I personally wouldn't trust he can repeat that.  He's 33 years old and has a history of arm problems.  IMO, guys like DeScalfina and Topa are normally floating around out there as Free Agents to be had for nothing (think Matt Magill or Brock Stewart).  Both guys are older than Polanco which is disappointing to me as I hoped to get back some building blocks vs. patches. 

So to me, this was basically trading Polanco for a top 100 prospect.  I'm ok with that...but it's another one of the Falvey trades where I feel like we might have given up more value than we received.  IDK.  Obviously we'll see how it plays out.  It just feels like thrift store pick up on our part to me. 

I agree it's a trade for a top 100 MLB talent. That's only because he's a right-handed hitter. Otherwise, we have plenty of outfield talent. But adding another Gallo to our starting lineup of pitching takes away from the trade for me. My fear is he will stink up the joint but management will be too headstrong to cut him ala Gallo.

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

IMO you're completely wrong. Starters who were worse than DeSclafini was last year are getting $15M+ deals this offseason and relievers like Topa are getting $8-10M a season. Pitching gets a premium.

Names, please.

 

 

[stringer bell]

DeSclafani compares very much with Maeda going into 2023--veteran arm coming off surgery in his mid-thirties with a history of being really good. If the Twins get results similar to Maeda's 2023 for the $4M they have invested in him, I think they'll take it.

I just don't think it is in the cards to get a #1 or #2 starter for what the Twins had to offer. Polanco and Kepler are quality veteran players with affordable contracts, that doesn't match up with top pitchers making more than twice as much. Trading Lee, Rodriguez or Jenkins should be off the table unless the Twins would be getting years of affordable team control on a #1 or #2 starter. I don't think Seattle was going to do that and Miami is asking for a franchise changing haul for Luzardo (IMHO). Everybody else wants to add. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

16 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

IMO, Ryu maybe makes sense.

Clevinger makes great sense!

Montgomery is $25-$26M & Snell is holding out for $30M and a minimum of 9 years……..he’ll come back toward reality but nowhere near $20M.

Martinez - really no defensive value & would compete with Buxton for AB’s. Seems redundant at DH & probably out of budget.

Bellinger wants a bunch more money and bats LH in CF & 1B. Again, redundant & can’t afford.

Liam Hendricks? He’s out for the year and doubt they can afford to pay him to sit with the risk of his future.

CLEVINGER for the $$ really helps.

LOL was wrong on Bellinger being Right handed.  Still fits positionally but yes this likely does not fit the right handed bat we need.  

[FilthyMogwai]

Nailed it. I agree 100%

Only concern is that Anthony DeSclafani will still be in the rotation.

[Iowatwins]

TOPA, TOPA, TOPA.

I can see our fans in September

[Riverbrian]

27 minutes ago, wabene said:

Part of what made the switch hitting Polanco great was his strong side was as a lefty hitting rightys. Farmer is a better right handed hitter against leftys. 

Polanco didn't need to be removed from the game. That another thing that makes Polanco great.

Farmer may be better against lefties but I'll bet money that he faces more righties this year. 

[arby58]

22 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Does this mean Julien will get to bat against lefties?

As somebody else pointed out, Farmer is a viable platoon option if they keep him (more likely now than yesterday). Granted, it was only 48 plate appearances (about 10 percent of his total), but Julien's splits against LHP were not good. .447 OPS versus .898; no HRs versus 16; 2 walks versus 62; 1 RBI versus 36.

[Major League Ready]

10 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Names, please.

 

 

Montas and Flaherty signed for $16M and 14M.  Lance Lynn got $11M.  Paxton was a little better but he was horrible the prior two years. DeSclafani was quite good before the injuries.  His health is key here and we don't have as much information as the people making these decisions.  

[sweetmusicviola16]

I personally would like JD Martinez brought in. He can regular DH and do some 1B. He can hit. We have the money to do it on a 1 year deal. He is a leader. I have seen his name all winter and said that's the guy we should get.

[stringer bell]

31 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I mentioned Farmer or Correa specifically just to point out that if either of those two get hurt... Julien loses his handcuff at 2B because Farmer is no longer available... he is either hurt or every day at SS for Correa. 

If Correa is hurt enough to go on the IL, I think Brooks Lee is the shortstop. A Farmer injury requiring the IL would likely give us Austin Martin or maybe someone like Helman. 

To the larger question of freeing Wallner, Julien and Kirilloff, I hope they are given more at-bats versus southpaws and the composition of the bench may well determine that. Max Kepler had about 100 plate appearances versus left handers, I think that is the right amount of protection and rest for someone with pretty severe career platoon splits. I would hope that all three young lefty hitting guys get that much opportunity, but it will be up to them to perform better than they did in limited chances last year. 

[nicksaviking]

12 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

I personally would like JD Martinez brought in. He can regular DH and do some 1B. He can hit. We have the money to do it on a 1 year deal. He is a leader. I have seen his name all winter and said that's the guy we should get.

He struck out 31% of his plate appearances last year. He's not going to work with Wallner, Julien and Buxton already in the lineup.

[DJL44]

18 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Names, please.

10 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Montas and Flaherty signed for $16M and 14M.  Lance Lynn got $11M.  Paxton was a little better but he was horrible the prior two years. DeSclafani was quite good before the injuries.  His health is key here and we don't have as much information as the people making these decisions.  

Giolito was horrible in 2023 and got 2 years $38.5M. The Reds gave $8M a season to Pagan and he's roughly as good and as old as Topa.

[nicksaviking]

I think we're looking at this with fan-colored glasses a bit too much. Had this been a player we hadn't known for a decade, say the Twins were (and were able) to trade Jonathan Schoop after the 2019 season, and this was the return they got, we'd be far more indifferent. 

[Riverbrian]

4 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

If Correa is hurt enough to go on the IL, I think Brooks Lee is the shortstop. A Farmer injury requiring the IL would likely give us Austin Martin or maybe someone like Helman. 

To the larger question of freeing Wallner, Julien and Kirilloff, I hope they are given more at-bats versus southpaws and the composition of the bench may well determine that. Max Kepler had about 100 plate appearances versus left handers, I think that is the right amount of avoidance and rest for someone with pretty severe career platoon splits. I would hope that all three young lefty hitting guys get that much opportunity, but it will be up to them to perform better than they did in limited chances last year. 

I agree with your thoughts on our young lefties and how they are utilized. 

Brooks Lee... I have the same expectation that everyone else does... Some day he will be an important member of the team... However... he doesn't have to be added to the 40 man until December and he still hasn't shown us promotable numbers at AAA. 

Do we really want to jettison someone off the 40 man in April to add Lee in April if Correa goes down for a stretch? 

Martin... Do we want Martin to short side platoon? I don't. 

I like our depth... I like it less today. 

[Jocko87]

Had you told me last week they would get $8m plus 4 players for Polo I would have signed up immediately, no names needed.  It's a robbery.  It does not matter that the impact for this year is less than we would like, that was never available for standalone Polo. 

I really just came in the comments to address the stray that Farmer got in the article.  

Quote

some unforced errors, like offering Kyle Farmer about $6 million via arbitration in the hopes he would still be in demand on the trade market

Farmer is a more important player to this roster than Polo, period.  And I love Polo.  I may also be taking the mantle of #1 Farmer defender here but I've been saying for months he is the most important guy for them to bring back given the flexibility and fit that Polo just can't give. 

An unforced error? You may mean Nick Gordon.  

I appreciate hearing from John the fan on this piece, maybe next week we can hear from John the analyst.

[Riverbrian]

40 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Granted, it was only 48 plate appearances

This must be granted

[stringer bell]

17 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I agree with your thoughts on our young lefties and how they are utilized. 

Brooks Lee... I have the same expectation that everyone else does... Some day he will be an important member of the team... However... he doesn't have to be added to the 40 man until December and he still hasn't shown us promotable numbers at AAA. 

Do we really want to jettison someone off the 40 man in April to add Lee in April if Correa goes down for a stretch? 

Martin... Do we want Martin to short side platoon? I don't. 

I like our depth... I like it less today. 

I haven't seen Lee for more than a few minutes live, but I've seen the Twins sing his praises. Maybe not in April, but some time this year, I fully expect Lee to make his MLB debut. As for Martin, I expect him to debut sometime this year. I had him as a dark horse candidate to make the Opening Day roster. He has enough versatility to get pretty consistent at-bats if up for the ten days or more to replace a utility guy. Again, he might need a month or more in St. Paul.

[Riverbrian]

4 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I haven't seen Lee for more than a few minutes live, but I've seen the Twins sing his praises. Maybe not in April, but some time this year, I fully expect Lee to make his MLB debut. As for Martin, I expect him to debut sometime this year. I had him as a dark horse candidate to make the Opening Day roster. He has enough versatility to get pretty consistent at-bats if up for the ten days or more to replace a utility guy. Again, he might need a month or more in St. Paul.

And it's great to have these guys in the nest. I love it.

However... the Brooks Lee egg hasn't hatched yet and we still need to see what happens when Martin gets pushed out of the nest. Some of those birds get eaten by a hawk with a 90 plus slider.     

I was prepared for a Polanco trade... I was expecting Polanco plus a prospect for a better starter. 

We got the prospect instead. The Twins win the trade in terms of value.

However... 2024?

I need to see what happens next. There needs to be a next.  

 

[Brett]

I’m not sure DeSclafani is better than Varland as a starter.

I’m not sure Topa is better than Varland as a reliever.

Maybe Varland starts the year in St Paul and waits on one of them to flame out. Is that too easy of an answer?

I still feel like I’m playing checkers while some of you (and, hopefully, Falvey) are playing chess.

[arby58]

3 hours ago, Hubie29 said:

We still could use a #2 or #3 starter so we don't have to rely on Varland or Winder etc.

We have decent chances to be #2 or #3 in Ober and Ryan. Paddack is probably going to be too innings-limited to reach that level. 

[Metrodome Kid]

Twins got better today and tomorrow with this trade. 

[Mike Sixel]

5 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

The Twins were entering this off-season in good shape, They mainly needed a front-line SP. I didn't mind FO not doing anything during the off-season, I was afraid that they'd do something stupid, like this.

Polo was coming into his prime finally entering the season healthy, when that happens Polo would have a monster year. Polo has been our best clutch hitter and switch hitter to boot. I have sink in my gut much like '21 when FO punted while signing Happ, Shoemaker & Coulome' instead of going out & trading for a viable SP.

This trade has made us worse by weakening our INF & missing Polo's bat while doing nothing to contribute to our main needs of front-line SP & catching upgrades. I know Polo's time in MN was limited but now is not the time. We weren't over budget so why get rid of Polo? We may get to the postseason w/o Polo but where we will absolutely miss Polo is in the postseason. So far I grade this offseason as an F-.

The atmosphere of the fanbase is swelling, a perfect opportunity to make another Pablo Lopez-type trade (yes it was hard to trade Arraez but Arraez was fat & Lopez was an absolute need) to further grow the excitement. '21 there was some excitement after '20 & '19 and FO got some fans drunk on their Kool-Aid but when the reality from the Happ, Shoemaker & Coulome' signing took effect, it killed any excitement that was gained & then some. Pohlads wonder why attendance is low. This is why. Post Kool-Aid hangover, it's hard to overcome

Hats off to SEA for trimming their unneeded fat & filling a gaping need that improves their chances of advancing into the postseason. We lost a great clubhouse guy, clutch switch hitter & above average, 2Bman & gained nothing. That's not how trades are supposed to work. It's time to get rid of this FO.

 

 

They just won the division and advanced in the playoffs, and you want to fire the FO? Unreal.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

I agree with your thoughts on our young lefties and how they are utilized. 

Brooks Lee... I have the same expectation that everyone else does... Some day he will be an important member of the team... However... he doesn't have to be added to the 40 man until December and he still hasn't shown us promotable numbers at AAA. 

Do we really want to jettison someone off the 40 man in April to add Lee in April if Correa goes down for a stretch? 

Martin... Do we want Martin to short side platoon? I don't. 

I like our depth... I like it less today. 

"still" I mean, sure, if 2-3 months in AAA shows us anything much......He was in AAA less than a year from being drafted, and people say he hasn't shown anything....

[Reptevia]

3 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I don't think starting pitching is better with adding Descalfini compared to last year with Gray. I wouldn't bet on Gray having another career year in 2024, but to truly improve the rotation I think more needs to be added AND/OR the internal guys (Ryan/Ober/Paddack) need to all improve over their 2023 versions. That's certainly possible.

DH, I think they add a right handed bat. JD Martinez would be great here, but there are other options too.

Literally no one is saying Disco is a Gray replacement. Point is, Gray is gone. The Twins were never going to go out and buy a Gray replacement. With that in mind, is the pitching staff better with Disco and Topa?  Yes. Is it it better to replace and aging injury prone infielder with capable younger guys?  Probably.