The Jorge Polanco Trade Fails the Simplest of Tests

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

17 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

Out of curiosity, what's your evidence that Seattle initiated this trade?

 

Overall, I don't think their silence is evidence of their not pursuing people. More likely, I think it's evidence of their preference to work below the radar.

“We have liked and tried to acquire him for years,” general manager Justin Hollander said in video conference Monday evening. “I think I’ve personally made more calls on this trade than I ever have on any trade before, at the behest of both of my own want to add him and our group. So really big day for us and I feel like it makes us a lot better.”

May have been a 2 sided conversation, but pretty clear they were initiating some contact here.  Even still if a deal get done I could care less who initiates it, and I think its hysterical that he thinks the front office is just sitting on their hands.   

[Guest]

9 hours ago, wabene said:

Well I guess going in I'll know John's stance when I tune in to the next G&G during my morning ski (I did find some barely adequate snow on some public land, where's my winter? ☹️).

Swooosh, swooosh!!! Either El Nino or climate change has taken your winter. 80° in Washington DC lately

[wabene]

5 minutes ago, Verified Member said:

Swooosh, swooosh!!! Either El Nino or climate change has taken your winter. 80° in Washington DC lately

Yikes 80? Yeah it's crazy so far. Did get in what I think will be my last ski until we finally get some more white gold. Fun times for me and the dogs. Could always road trip to the Wasatch! 

[David Maro]

I love how people say it was time for Polanco to go because of injuries.What about the CFer that has been injured for 8+ years.Polanco was never going to bring a SP with a upside.I know this is going to sound like no way,but maybe the FO should have a talk with Trevor Bauer.And yes he has some very bad baggage.He also a bit of bulldog much like Sonny Gray.And FO could sign him to a contract with a lot of incentives for a year to prove himself.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

Please show me that record, because it doesn't make any sense to me. Like I said Polo when given the proper time he bounces back faster than most. Just a personal observation. 

Quote

Second basemen, of course, are notoriously short-lived in the league, or so the received wisdom goes. I went ahead and re-ran the model for years 8+, 9+, and 10+, and in each case, second basemen came out as having significantly higher hazard ratios, in the range of 1.15-1.2 (that is, a 15-20 percent increased risk of leaving MLB relative to the other players).

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/23041/attrition-by-position-how-long-do-players-at-each-position-last/

Quote

Overall, the group lost an average of about 100 plate appearances per year and went from playing like +6 win players to playing like +4 win players when they did take the field.

blogs.fangraphs.com

Quote

when looks at the very best second basemen of the last fifty years, it does seem clear that most suffered a big drop in production following their age-32 or age-33 seasons. Some remained good, very few were great. No second baseman on this list remained a all-star type player throughout his age 32-36 seasons

A Look At How Recent Great Second Basemen Have Aged (Pt. 1) (startspreadingthenews.blog)

Polanco, at age 30, is right on the cusp of expected decline. His defense has already been slowly eroding. Seattle is going to try to squeeze out his last good years but he's unlikely to get better or healthier at ages 30-31.

[darin617]

11 hours ago, Fezig said:

1) I don't hate the trade, then again I don't love it.

Pro: This will make the Julien v Lee battle for second base entertaining. Having Lee bake in the minors doesn't make sense if he's ready to go. Got another top 100 prospect in return.

Con: Another middling starter. Lost Polanco's leadership in the clubhouse. Lost Polanco's switch hitting. 

I never thought of or evet heard of Polanco being mentioned as a leader in the Club house.

[jkcarew]

So, we should keep an often injured veteran at a position where we have an option (maybe two with Lee) that can be nearly as valuable in 2024…more valuable in the case of another Polanco injury?…And for a good opportunity to improve the back of the rotation in 2024?

I’m not convinced the trade (on paper) makes the team worse in 2024. We’ll see, though.

[Mike Sixel]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/twins-and-mariners-link-up-for-intriguing-swap/

 

[JoshB1226]

I'm going to have to say I completely disagree with the premise that we got worse. Topa has a chance according to stuff+ to not just be a flash in the pan reliever or a one year wonder despite the low k%. Desclafani has been a decent pitcher when not injured. And if I'm the front office I call Miami and center a package with Gabriel Gonzalez as the headliner for Luzardo. Seems like a damn good trade if they pull off the next one.

[Major League Ready]

46 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/twins-and-mariners-link-up-for-intriguing-swap/

 

Thanks Mike!  Good to see another objective opinion.  ESPN had a similar take and now Fangraphs.  This quote makes their position quite clear.  "The Twins just get a straight A" and I’m giving the Mariners a standalone C- but a contingent B+. They traded a lot to get Polanco"  It might dampen the negative comments here, but I doubt it will change people's minds.

[JoshB1226]

Also am I the only one who remembers that Polanco s defense was not good in the postseason and nearly cost us if not for Correa bailing him out. Also screwed up the double play against Houston a few years ago. Not clutch in the field!

[lever2k]

I think the entire premise of the argument is incorrect.  The Twins ownership made it clear their number one off-season priority was to SHED PAYROLL, so how can you ding them for not getting better when it's clear that was not their goal? Given that, this deal ain't so bad, and has some potential upside for this year, and the future.  Second, their number one need this off-season was to fill pitching slots to provide depth for the inevitable injuries.  This deal did that too.  To everyone's, or even my, liking?  No, but it filled slots.  And, this deal also met their goal of shedding payroll.  Will it add space for signing a role playing position player for $5-7M? I have my doubts on that one. 

I think a more fair criticism of the Twins ownership, rather than of the FO for this deal, is how badly they are squandering the fan and player energy from last fall, not to mention the championship opportunity this team does indeed present this year, if needed pieces were added.  It is shameful of them to waste that chance, and a disservice to the team, and of an energized and newly engaged Twins fan base.  Chances like this don't come along every year for mid market teams, but ones with billionaire owners have the chance to strike instead of moaning about television deals.  This ownership group chose not to, and that's on them.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, lever2k said:

I think the entire premise of the argument is incorrect.  The Twins ownership made it clear their number one off-season priority was to SHED PAYROLL, so how can you ding them for not getting better when it's clear that was not their goal? Given that, this deal ain't so bad, and has some potential upside for this year, and the future.  Second, their number one need this off-season was to fill pitching slots to provide depth for the inevitable injuries.  This deal did that too.  To everyone's, or even my, liking?  No, but it filled slots.  And, this deal also met their goal of shedding payroll.  Will it add space for signing a role playing position player for $5-7M? I have my doubts on that one. 

I think a more fair criticism of the Twins ownership, rather than of the FO for this deal, is how badly they are squandering the fan and player energy from last fall, not to mention the championship opportunity this team does indeed present this year, if needed pieces were added.  It is shameful of them to waste that chance, and a disservice to the team, and of an energized and newly engaged Twins fan base.  Chances like this don't come along every year for mid market teams, but ones with billionaire owners have the chance to strike instead of moaning about television deals.  This ownership group chose not to, and that's on them.

Maybe the Twins are trying to see how Falvey does with budgets in the $85-115 million range. Challenge time.

[KirbyDome89]

11 hours ago, I Never Bet On Sports said:

I really like the trade long term but let's just focus on impact to 2024:

2nd base - Julien 2.6 WAR, Polanco 2.0 last year in similar usage  Assuming this leads to more playing time for Julien and opens the door for Brooks Lee. - Twins got better but minimally

Relief Pitching - Twins got better

Starting Pitching - Twins got better but minimally

DH - Twins got worse

Payroll - Twins got better

I think this trade makes the Twins better in 2024 not worse. This seems like the kind of trade Bill Belichick would make in his prime if he worked in baseball. Trade values say Twins got $25.3 Million in value and gave up $9.4 Million. 

Polanco tallied 2x as many ABs vs. LHP (not surprising) in 30ish fewer games. Their offensive usage wasn't all that similar. Their innings in the field were roughly the same, and despite all the moaning about Polanco's defense, it was Julien who turned in a negative WAR in that category. He (Julien) is going to have to hit LHP. If the solution is to platoon Kyle Farmer with him at 2B then I don't see the Twins adding by subtracting here. Brooks Lee isn't a factor. He's a top prospect in the organization. The door is never shut for him. 

Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer were the same type of "depth," or reclamation project, back end guys, just 2 years ago. Idk how adding another of that type in 2024 makes this rotation better, especially if the guy being pushed out (Varland) has some actual upside. 

Woof, saying the team is better right now is a true contrarian take. Idk if you've paid attention to NE football lately, but BB's roster building decisions absolutely sunk that team over the last few years. The Pats decided to move on, not BB. 

[Major League Ready]

37 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Polanco tallied 2x as many ABs vs. LHP (not surprising) in 30ish fewer games. Their offensive usage wasn't all that similar. Their innings in the field were roughly the same, and despite all the moaning about Polanco's defense, it was Julien who turned in a negative WAR in that category. He (Julien) is going to have to hit LHP. If the solution is to platoon Kyle Farmer with him at 2B then I don't see the Twins adding by subtracting here. Brooks Lee isn't a factor. He's a top prospect in the organization. The door is never shut for him. 

Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer were the same type of "depth," or reclamation project, back end guys, just 2 years ago. Idk how adding another of that type in 2024 makes this rotation better, especially if the guy being pushed out (Varland) has some actual upside. 

Woof, saying the team is better right now is a true contrarian take. Idk if you've paid attention to NE football lately, but BB's roster building decisions absolutely sunk that team over the last few years. The Pats decided to move on, not BB. 

Which measure of defensive WAR are you using?

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Polanco tallied 2x as many ABs vs. LHP (not surprising) in 30ish fewer games. Their offensive usage wasn't all that similar. Their innings in the field were roughly the same, and despite all the moaning about Polanco's defense, it was Julien who turned in a negative WAR in that category. He (Julien) is going to have to hit LHP. If the solution is to platoon Kyle Farmer with him at 2B then I don't see the Twins adding by subtracting here. Brooks Lee isn't a factor. He's a top prospect in the organization. The door is never shut for him. 

Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer were the same type of "depth," or reclamation project, back end guys, just 2 years ago. Idk how adding another of that type in 2024 makes this rotation better, especially if the guy being pushed out (Varland) has some actual upside. 

Woof, saying the team is better right now is a true contrarian take. Idk if you've paid attention to NE football lately, but BB's roster building decisions absolutely sunk that team over the last few years. The Pats decided to move on, not BB. 

And Farmer will be better against LHP than Polanco was, Julien better against RHP. Julien graded as a better defender by OAA, with a clear progression throughout the season that matched my eye test. Julien is never going to "have to hit LHP" because there will always be 500 ABs to be taken against RHP. There just aren't that many LHP in MLB. 

If Varland is better, he will start. They're not attached to DeSclafani, it's $4M. And he's clearly not an Archer or a Bundy.

The team is clearly better after the trade compared to where they were before the trade. 

No dropoff at 2B, much better in the bullpen, better low-end SP depth. 

[thelanges5]

Let’s see what they do with the cash. That can be considered part of this trade. 

[Fezig]

12 hours ago, darin617 said:

I never thought of or evet heard of Polanco being mentioned as a leader in the Club house.

I can't say that I know for sure, but pretty much every writer on this site has credited him as being a leader as have many of the other writers from the area. 

[Doctor Gast]

Our #1 need is a postseason SP & we aren't over budget so the main focus is landing that SP that'll vastly improve our team. The SP that lines up best with our needs is LHSP Luzardo. Our best trade baits are over-stretched players at their positions (C) Jeffers who has no arm & swoons when given sole primary catching duties & Julien, below average range & doesn't turn a smooth DP (prerequisite for a 2Bman is range & turns a smooth DP). You can spin stats & temporarily make them look average defensively but boiling it down to what is necessary & long-term they are not. Plus their trade values are at their peak with Jeffers at BTV (28.5) & Julien at BTV (34.5) matching up with MIA's needs & Luzardo's value perfectly. 

Polo is our best option at 2B, trading him away we are trading away muscle & making us worse plus does nothing to fill any of our needs. FO lied when they said they would accept no prospects for Polanco, our main exchange are prospects. Also, we are stuck with inferior Julien as our sole 2B which prevents us from ever having a chance to land Luzardo unless we offer up Lee (which would be an overpay) who has much more upside defensively & even offensively than limited Julien. Which would affect us dramatically in the INF in the future from advancing in the postseason. 

IMO in trading Polo we have jeopardized any hope of landing a much-needed bonafide front-line SP. much less a potential ace.

[DJL44]

12 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Maybe the Twins are trying to see how Falvey does with budgets in the $85-115 million range. Challenge time.

Then they can end the season with the wins per dollar trophy!

[Linus]

18 hours ago, lever2k said:

I think the entire premise of the argument is incorrect.  The Twins ownership made it clear their number one off-season priority was to SHED PAYROLL, so how can you ding them for not getting better when it's clear that was not their goal? Given that, this deal ain't so bad, and has some potential upside for this year, and the future.  Second, their number one need this off-season was to fill pitching slots to provide depth for the inevitable injuries.  This deal did that too.  To everyone's, or even my, liking?  No, but it filled slots.  And, this deal also met their goal of shedding payroll.  Will it add space for signing a role playing position player for $5-7M? I have my doubts on that one. 

I think a more fair criticism of the Twins ownership, rather than of the FO for this deal, is how badly they are squandering the fan and player energy from last fall, not to mention the championship opportunity this team does indeed present this year, if needed pieces were added.  It is shameful of them to waste that chance, and a disservice to the team, and of an energized and newly engaged Twins fan base.  Chances like this don't come along every year for mid market teams, but ones with billionaire owners have the chance to strike instead of moaning about television deals.  This ownership group chose not to, and that's on them.

Correct!  After thinking about this deal and listening to Gleeman I think this is what happened. The FO were essentially forced to deal Polanco if they were going to have any money or flexibility to make something happen. When they couldn’t make a deal for a playoff quality starter they took the best deal they could get. They got value in the trade they just didn’t get what they needed most. The option of keeping Polanco was swept off the table by ownership. The Pohlads deserve huge criticism for this off season. I don’t care about the TV deal. If you want to pinch pennies sell the team. You bought it for $32 million and it now worth billions. Honest to god it’s like they are running a town ball team. 

[ashbury]

On 1/30/2024 at 11:39 AM, Doctor Gast said:

I tend to agree with you but Polo isn't injury prone.

From 2019-2021 he was rock solid.  But after that, there have been multiple IL trips:

June 2022: lower back tightness

September 2022: left knee inflammation

April 2023: left knee inflammation

May 2023: left hamstring

June 2023: left hamstring

It's the repeated nature of the injuries that worry me.  It's not like a series of random injuries, such as a broken toe or finger from a wild pitch.  Having the knee flare up a second time after presumably an off-season of rest qualifies as potentially "chronic".  And I'd prefer to see a hamstring pull not recur shortly after coming off the IL.

Is he broken down?  I would not say so.  But he turns 31 this season.  This kind of injury history is something that fits an unfortunate pattern at his age.  Perhaps Seattle will get a full season from him like he could deliver when he was 27.

Conversely, if you took the same sunny outlook with DeSclafani as you do with Polanco, you might say that "when healthy" this pitcher actually has put up good seasons (or, in 2023, a good half-season).  DeSclafani's last season with solid health combined with good numbers: 2021.  Polanco's last season with solid health combined with good numbers: 2021. 

This trade is not as lopsided for 2024 as some are making it out to be.

 

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

8 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Our #1 need is a postseason SP & we aren't over budget so the main focus is landing that SP that'll vastly improve our team. The SP that lines up best with our needs is LHSP Luzardo. Our best trade baits are over-stretched players at their positions (C) Jeffers who has no arm & swoons when given sole primary catching duties & Julien, below average range & doesn't turn a smooth DP (prerequisite for a 2Bman is range & turns a smooth DP). You can spin stats & temporarily make them look average defensively but boiling it down to what is necessary & long-term they are not. Plus their trade values are at their peak with Jeffers at BTV (28.5) & Julien at BTV (34.5) matching up with MIA's needs & Luzardo's value perfectly. 

Polo is our best option at 2B, trading him away we are trading away muscle & making us worse plus does nothing to fill any of our needs. FO lied when they said they would accept no prospects for Polanco, our main exchange are prospects. Also, we are stuck with inferior Julien as our sole 2B which prevents us from ever having a chance to land Luzardo unless we offer up Lee (which would be an overpay) who has much more upside defensively & even offensively than limited Julien. Which would affect us dramatically in the INF in the future from advancing in the postseason. 

IMO in trading Polo we have jeopardized any hope of landing a much-needed bonafide front-line SP. much less a potential ace.

Trading Jeffers with no plan to replace him is absolutely preposterous.

Your valuation of Polanco and Julien is detached from reality.

[KirbyDome89]

16 hours ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

And Farmer will be better against LHP than Polanco was, Julien better against RHP. Julien graded as a better defender by OAA, with a clear progression throughout the season that matched my eye test. Julien is never going to "have to hit LHP" because there will always be 500 ABs to be taken against RHP. There just aren't that many LHP in MLB. 

If Varland is better, he will start. They're not attached to DeSclafani, it's $4M. And he's clearly not an Archer or a Bundy.

The team is clearly better after the trade compared to where they were before the trade. 

No dropoff at 2B, much better in the bullpen, better low-end SP depth. 

Except Farmer wasn't better against LHP last year. It's odd to me that those who believe Polanco is about to fall off a cliff at 31 are seemingly comfortable platooning a 34 year old Farmer. The funny thing about that progression is that it correlates negatively with his innings in the field. His defensive usage was akin to a back end reliever. 

The Twins had one player, ONE, clear 500 PAs last season. Kepler came close at 491 PAs in 130 games, but had 4x as many PAs against LHP as Julien. So sure, if Julien stays healthy/available for 162 games, maybe he touches 500 PAs while continuing to completely avoid LHP; good luck with that though. FWIW roughy 1/3 of MLB innings are thrown by LHP. 

It's not even debatable that this FO shows a strong deference to vets, even when it's clear they're not the answer. If DeSclafani is viewed as a starter (who knows if this is the case but I certainly hope not) he'll be given every opportunity to fail and that will come at Varland's expense. We'll disagree on whether DeSclafani fits the Bundy/Archer mold... 

"The team is clearly better after the trade." Lol the hottest of takes. 

[insagt1]

I liked Polo. Was not a fan of the trade, but like any trade gotta let it play out. I don't agree 'it made the Twins better'.  But again, we have to see who replaces him and what major league value, if any, comes out of it.

As a comical aside, most here know I'm from Rochester and we are stuck with the Nationals as our parent club. I see the Nats signed Gallo.

BWWWWAAAAHAHAHAHA.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

FWIW roughy 1/3 of MLB innings are thrown by LHP.

That sounded high to me.  On b-r.com's League Splits page, left handed pitchers faced 48691 plate appearances, out of a total of 184110.  That's just under 26.5%, more like a quarter.  Not a big deal of course, I just got curious and thought I'd go ahead and share - a big enough difference to affect some thinking in certain situations.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=b&lg=MLB&year=2023

 

[stringer bell]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Except Farmer wasn't better against LHP last year. It's odd to me that those who believe Polanco is about to fall off a cliff at 31 are seemingly comfortable platooning a 34 year old Farmer. The funny thing about that progression is that it correlates negatively with his innings in the field. His defensive usage was akin to a back end reliever. 

The Twins had one player, ONE, clear 500 PAs last season. Kepler came close at 491 PAs in 130 games, but had 4x as many PAs against LHP as Julien. So sure, if Julien stays healthy/available for 162 games, maybe he touches 500 PAs while continuing to completely avoid LHP; good luck with that though. FWIW roughy 1/3 of MLB innings are thrown by LHP. 

It's not even debatable that this FO shows a strong deference to vets, even when it's clear they're not the answer. If DeSclafani is viewed as a starter (who knows if this is the case but I certainly hope not) he'll be given every opportunity to fail and that will come at Varland's expense. We'll disagree on whether DeSclafani fits the Bundy/Archer mold... 

"The team is clearly better after the trade." Lol the hottest of takes. 

Polanco has a long enough career that his career stats are more telling than platoon splits in 2023 (half a season) IMHO. In his career, Polanco is a far better left handed hitter. Farmer, last year and in his career, has been a far better hitter versus lefties. If I were to bet, I would bet that Farmer has better numbers versus lefties in 2024.

It is interesting how much or how little certain teams face left handers and left handed pitching in general. Atlanta faced less than 20% left handed starters (32 of 162). Cleveland faced almost twice as many left handed starters (59 of 162) despite having the Twins in their division, with their rotation of five right handed starters.

 

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Except Farmer wasn't better against LHP last year. It's odd to me that those who believe Polanco is about to fall off a cliff at 31 are seemingly comfortable platooning a 34 year old Farmer. The funny thing about that progression is that it correlates negatively with his innings in the field. His defensive usage was akin to a back end reliever. 

The Twins had one player, ONE, clear 500 PAs last season. Kepler came close at 491 PAs in 130 games, but had 4x as many PAs against LHP as Julien. So sure, if Julien stays healthy/available for 162 games, maybe he touches 500 PAs while continuing to completely avoid LHP; good luck with that though. FWIW roughy 1/3 of MLB innings are thrown by LHP. 

It's not even debatable that this FO shows a strong deference to vets, even when it's clear they're not the answer. If DeSclafani is viewed as a starter (who knows if this is the case but I certainly hope not) he'll be given every opportunity to fail and that will come at Varland's expense. We'll disagree on whether DeSclafani fits the Bundy/Archer mold... 

"The team is clearly better after the trade." Lol the hottest of takes. 

I'm not judging their ability to hit LHP off of 100-150 PA sample sizes of last year. For their careers, Farmer has a 100 point OPS lead on Polanco. A strong platoon with Farmer facing LHP and Julien facing RHP is all but guaranteed to outproduce Polanco because of the platoon advantage. Do you think it's unreasonable to be comfortable platooning Kyle Farmer? Who said Polanco will "fall off a cliff"? I don't think it's unreasonable to look at his recent injury history and coinciding drop in production and feel comfortable saying that Julien, who is already a better hitter, has a pretty good chance to be more productive.

I meant PA and typed AB, my bad.

Edouard Julien spent close to 2 months in the minors last season and they didn't give him regular playing time in the first half. He had 487 PA against RHP across both levels. FWIW, 23 players in the league faced >500 PAs against RHP, Mookie did it in 140 games.

The Twins had 1 player clear 500 PAs because the vets were largely injured (including Polanco fyi) and they didn't give the young guns regular playing time until June/July. 

The team lost little to no production at 2B, gained a 7th/8th inning setup arm, and will assuredly need some innings in the #6 rotation spot from an 4-5 ERA starter - which is a lot better than most teams get from that position. If you think that's "the hottest of takes" I'd love to hear you explain why they will be *so* much worse after the trade. 

[stringer bell]

Are the Twins better than before they traded Polanco? This has been discussed here and on other threads. My answer is there is no definitive way to know. We can't predict future performance with precision and we can't predict injuries. If DeSclafani and Topa recreate their best year the Twins easily are better, but that is, of course unlikely.

I have stated that Polanco looks like he's old for his age to me. I stand by that. He has forsaken slash for slug and if he loses just a little, he may struggle to keep his good numbers. He obviously has lost something in the field. They are different players, but Brian Dozier went from 126 to 89 OPS+ in his age 31 season.

The flip side is that the two pitchers could flop or be injured and that's probably more likely than both thriving. Meanwhile Polanco is likely to put up good numbers yet as a 30-31 year old. We can speculate, but the results will tell the tale in about eight months. 

 

 

[KirbyDome89]

5 hours ago, ashbury said:

That sounded high to me.  On b-r.com's League Splits page, left handed pitchers faced 48691 plate appearances, out of a total of 184110.  That's just under 26.5%, more like a quarter.  Not a big deal of course, I just got curious and thought I'd go ahead and share - a big enough difference to affect some thinking in certain situations.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=b&lg=MLB&year=2023

 

This is what I used:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-southpaw-advantage/

And yes, I generously rounded up to make the 1/3 math easier, but I would certainly say that my overall point holds true; Julien actually does need to "hit," LHP, i.e. "hold his own," if he's going to be a regular in the starting lineup.