The Jorge Polanco Trade Fails the Simplest of Tests

[Hubie29]

DeSclafani had 8 QS, 8 stinkers and 3 in between starts. If that isn't screaming 5th or spot starter, I don't know what is.  One thing with him is, you know after 2 innings whether he is on or not.  Def an upgrade from Bundy, Archer, Shoemaker etc. We still could use a #2 or #3 starter so we don't have to rely on Varland or Winder etc.

[sweetmusicviola16]

The more I go over this trade the more I actually like it.

We needed bullpen depth and quality. Check.

We needed backend of the rotation depth, regardless of if a TOR is brought in or not.And he is only costing 4 mil. Check.

We now have our starting 2B without the distraction of a platoon. Check.

In addition to these benefits we now have a Top 80 prospect. Who nobody in the organization or fanbase is invested in sentimentaly and can be used to draw that TOR that we would alllike to see.

Do I like DeSclafani? No. Yuck. But I do like the trade as a whole. No, I don't think we are anywhere close to be done, and I can be one of the FO's hardest critics.

[Cory Engelhardt]

7 minutes ago, wabene said:

Anthony Disco will be starting, Falvey said he likes him anywhere in the rotation. They do not do 6 man rotations. Louie will be in St Paul waiting his turn. Many fans will grumble about him wasting his bullets there. 

I'm not at all sure he will be at St. Paul. He can help the team, so IF Desclafini is the #5 (I do think they can roll with a 6 man rotation fwiw) then I also still see Varland in Minneapolis instead of St. Paul.

Desclafini did have some really good starts last year, including 8 innings of only giving up 1 run AT Houston in early May. 

I still think they are going to go for a top of the rotation arm, or at least playoff worthy. Certainly they will add a bat now I'd imagine.

 

[Trov]

The assumption by the writer is that Polanco will be better than anyone who may replace him.  I would disagree.  As much as I have liked Polanco over the years, he is aging and getting hurt each of the last few years.  Julien filled in last year just fine, and improved on his defense.  Yes, he was unplayable against lefties.  However, we have options.  Farmer can play against lefties or Castro.  If Polanco is in line up he is either playing 2nd moving Julien to first or one of them is DH.  AK has been been consistent, but again we had options at first, possibly Miranda, if he can bounce back from injury plagued season.  Lee could always get called up.  

I agree, outside the pen arm, we did not upgrade much for this season, but to just assume Polanco will be better than any replacements I have to disagree with that premise.  The fact that Polanco has missed so much time lately with injuries, which tend to get worse as you get older, and he is going to be in age 30 season, I expect his production to go down. 

[Drtwins]

The trade added depth, likely raised the team’s floor, and added a solid prospect. It’s honestly about what I would have expected in return for Polanco alone. Do I love it, no. Do I like it, not really. Do I hate it, nah. Topa is the same as any mediocre reliver, he could be solid or completely fall apart. As a weak contact reliant reliver who has unimpressive K rates he’s not a high leverage reliever. He’s just a guy. Desclafani could be a solid 5^th SP if all goes well but is he better than Varland. At best Desclafani should be the #6 guy and an injury replacement. Again, this is another move that raises provides depth and raises the floor. The problem with the trade is this doesn’t raise the ceiling at all. It makes the Twins worse if they are to make the playoffs. Once in the playoffs it’s the stars and clutch players that are needed. Topa and Desclafani won’t likely play in a close or important playoff game. Would Polanco, 100%. He is easily a top 9 player whether he’s at 2^nd or DH (with Julien at 2^nd, DH, or even 1^st). All in all it’s not a terrible trade, it will likely help the team get to the playoffs, but won't help them in the playoffs. Here’s to hoping the saved money leads to a Hoskins signing or a trade of prospects for a #1 or #2 SP.

[MMMordabito]

The Disco to Dilly comparisons are just silly.

Disco's simply a better pitcher than Dilly, and the career numbers prove it.

Disco's being brought in to battle for the 5th spot in the rotation, while Dilly was brought in as the default #3 behind Gray and Ryan. 

My take:

Rotation Depth - Improved

Bullpen Depth - Improved (Both by the addition of Topa and the domino effect of the Disco/Varland battle)

Farm System - Improved

Clubhouse - Weakened

Lineup Flexibility - Weakened (At this point, Miranda/Larnach is probably the fill-in for Polanco)

Financial Situation - Improved

[sweetmusicviola16]

I also prefer Louie Varland be given every chance to be in the rotation on opening day. DeSclafani is not good enough imo to vault over the present incumbents. But if they should fail we at least have some proven depth now.

[bird]

1 hour ago, Supfin99 said:

Wow I really couldn’t disagree with this view more. They trade a 30 yr old infielder from a position of depth n who has played a total of 184 games combined the last 2 seasons for solid reliever, a depth starter a slightly poorer version of our 3rd best prospect and an intriguing arm. This is a great trade that may actually have done both, improve a team now n in the future. 

We’ll put. The objective of this trade may not have centered on 2024, but it’s conceivable that it does. The Twins have depth in terms of options for the back end of the rotation (the new guy, Varland, Festa, and then a whole slug of guys who shouldn’t yet be counted out like SWR, Winder, Headrick, Sands, etc.) But don’t sleep on Topa. He may not pan out, given his injury history, but if he does, the team is already better in 2024. Polanco was no longer a difference maker. Topa might be.

Longer term, Daren Bowen may be what makes this trade an excellent one because he’s a promising development project, which plays into a strength of ours. And Gabriel Gonzalez is a 45+ FV guy! Solve his plate discipline issues and you have a top 10 prospect.

 

 

[wabene]

11 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I'm not at all sure he will be at St. Paul. He can help the team, so IF Desclafini is the #5 (I do think they can roll with a 6 man rotation fwiw) then I also still see Varland in Minneapolis instead of St. Paul.

Desclafini did have some really good starts last year, including 8 innings of only giving up 1 run AT Houston in early May. 

I still think they are going to go for a top of the rotation arm, or at least playoff worthy. Certainly they will add a bat now I'd imagine.

 

They need rotation depth. Varland is that guy. The pen is fine without him. Yes Louie looked good in the pen, but they would be foolish to not give him a chance to prove he belongs in the rotation. Just like last year with Ober, Varland is the guy with options. Of course down the stretch and in the playoffs if it makes sense to put him in the pen, then yes that would be a great move. I am becoming a broken record on this subject so I'm going to try to just leave it at that. 

[Dean Sorenson]

Circumbendibus? oooo-kay. I have always been a Polanco guy. He seemed to be the guy that got the hit we needed when we needed it more often than not. But is is injury prone and we are infield rich. As with most of these kinds of moves - we'll have to see how it plays out. Hopefully there is more to come.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Kenny Powers said:

IMO, guys like DeScalfina and Topa are normally floating around out there as Free Agents to be had for nothing

IMO you're completely wrong. Starters who were worse than DeSclafini was last year are getting $15M+ deals this offseason and relievers like Topa are getting $8-10M a season. Pitching gets a premium.

[Major League Ready]

Everyone seems to ignore Polanco was not going to be a starter on this team.  Julien is the primary 2B but he will be platooned.  Farmer is actually the better hitter against LHP.  His wRC+ is 25 points higher than Polanco.  In a back-up role at least half of the ABs should come against LHP.  Framer is the better defender at 2B and by far the better defender at 3B.  They also have Castro who hit RHP as well as Polanco last year.   If we didn't have Lewis / Julien / Castro, I might agree losing Polanco would be a significant net loss.  However, the combination of Julien / Lewis / Farmer and Castro is no worse than if Polanco was inserted given the reality Polanco is not a starter with this roster.  Then, add 3 years of a solid RP and SP depth, and I think the team is better.  Now, add a top 100 prospect and you have the reason why neutral parties like ESPN are grading this trade in favor of the Twins.

Also, DJL44 is absolutely right about how the league is valuing pitching depth / guys like DeSclafani.  He has value here or perhaps in another trade, especially given Seattle and SFG are paying most of his salary.

[I Never Bet On Sports]

I really like the trade long term but let's just focus on impact to 2024:

2nd base - Julien 2.6 WAR, Polanco 2.0 last year in similar usage  Assuming this leads to more playing time for Julien and opens the door for Brooks Lee. - Twins got better but minimally

Relief Pitching - Twins got better

Starting Pitching - Twins got better but minimally

DH - Twins got worse

Payroll - Twins got better

I think this trade makes the Twins better in 2024 not worse. This seems like the kind of trade Bill Belichick would make in his prime if he worked in baseball. Trade values say Twins got $25.3 Million in value and gave up $9.4 Million. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

15 minutes ago, wabene said:

They need rotation depth. Varland is that guy. The pen is fine without him. Yes Louie looked good in the pen, but they would be foolish to not give him a chance to prove he belongs in the rotation. Just like last year with Ober, Varland is the guy with options. Of course down the stretch and in the playoffs if it makes sense to put him in the pen, then yes that would be a great move. I am becoming a broken record on this subject so I'm going to try to just leave it at that. 

Why can't he be rotation depth and act as the long guy/6th man?

I still think there is a good chance they roll with 6 starters to be honest.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Just now, I Never Bet On Sports said:

I really like the trade long term but let's just focus on impact to 2024:

2nd base - Julien 2.6 WAR, Polanco 2.0 last year in similar usage  Assuming this leads to more playing time for Julien and opens the door for Brooks Lee. - Twins got better but minimally

Relief Pitching - Twins got better

Starting Pitching - Twins got better but minimally

DH - Twins got worse

Payroll - Twins got better

I think this trade makes the Twins better in 2024 not worse. This seems like the kind of trade Bill Belichick would make in his prime if he worked in baseball. Trade values say Twins got $25.3 Million in value and gave up $9.4 Million. 

I don't think starting pitching is better with adding Descalfini compared to last year with Gray. I wouldn't bet on Gray having another career year in 2024, but to truly improve the rotation I think more needs to be added AND/OR the internal guys (Ryan/Ober/Paddack) need to all improve over their 2023 versions. That's certainly possible.

DH, I think they add a right handed bat. JD Martinez would be great here, but there are other options too.

[arby58]

45 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I don’t know how someone could say he is a better option to start than Varland is. Maybe he will make starts, but right now he is long relief at best right? Unless they do start with a 6 man rotation. Even then, the “rope” for him being around isn’t long

He's two seasons removed from a 13-7, 31 starts, 168 innings pitched and 3.19 ERA season. He had a couple other decent years as a starting pitcher before that. Granted, the last two years have been injury-filled, but I'd assume the Twins have had the opportunity to 'look under the hood.' If he is healthy, he may well be part of the rotation, at least at some point in the year. They'll probably need 7 or 8 starting pitchers by the end of the season anyway. They traded for him, so it's a little different from some of the free agent pitcher 'dumpster dives' of the past.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

The Twins were entering this off-season in good shape, They mainly needed a front-line SP. I didn't mind FO not doing anything during the off-season, I was afraid that they'd do something stupid, like this.

Polo was coming into his prime finally entering the season healthy, when that happens Polo would have a monster year. Polo has been our best clutch hitter and switch hitter to boot. I have sink in my gut much like '21 when FO punted while signing Happ, Shoemaker & Coulome' instead of going out & trading for a viable SP.

This trade has made us worse by weakening our INF & missing Polo's bat while doing nothing to contribute to our main needs of front-line SP & catching upgrades. I know Polo's time in MN was limited but now is not the time. We weren't over budget so why get rid of Polo? We may get to the postseason w/o Polo but where we will absolutely miss Polo is in the postseason. So far I grade this offseason as an F-.

The atmosphere of the fanbase is swelling, a perfect opportunity to make another Pablo Lopez-type trade (yes it was hard to trade Arraez but Arraez was fat & Lopez was an absolute need) to further grow the excitement. '21 there was some excitement after '20 & '19 and FO got some fans drunk on their Kool-Aid but when the reality from the Happ, Shoemaker & Coulome' signing took effect, it killed any excitement that was gained & then some. Pohlads wonder why attendance is low. This is why. Post Kool-Aid hangover, it's hard to overcome

Hats off to SEA for trimming their unneeded fat & filling a gaping need that improves their chances of advancing into the postseason. We lost a great clubhouse guy, clutch switch hitter & above average, 2Bman & gained nothing. That's not how trades are supposed to work. It's time to get rid of this FO.

 

 

I don't understand a majority of this comment. 

Polo is clearly not entering his prime, catching is not a position of need, Topa is a legit setup man and DeSclefani is a fine #5 starter you hope can stay healthy at $4 million, Gonzalez for Polanco straight up would be a pretty even trade, and they also got an intriguing throw-in arm. 

Julien is ready to take over 2B and improve on both sides of the ball from Polanco's last 2 years. There is still a surplus of talented infielders after losing Polanco.

Seems odd to grade the trade just assuming that everything will go as poorly as possible for the Twins.

[Riverbrian]

I'm going to reserve judgement until the off-season is over and the team heads north out of Florida. 

If this trade is the only move made... I'm not happy. If it frees up cash to make another move... OK... I'll wait. I will reserve judgement.  

Don't get me wrong... Polanco for Gabriel Gonzalez alone is probably a fair trade so the Twins did just fine value wise especially when they added a potential starter and what is hopefully a good bullpen arm in addition to Gabriel Gonzalez.  

However... since the bulk of the value in the trade coming back to the Twins is a prospect that might be with the club in 2026 at the earliest... I agree with John Bonnes... The Twins are weaker for this year on January 30, 2024 compared to January 29, 2024. 

1. I will give DeSclafani the opportunity to be a good pitcher for us in 2024 because who knows... however... my initial reaction is he exactly what I didn't want to see landing on our shores... an innings eater. I don't want innings eaters... I don't want a Bundy type just chucking baseball after baseball to the tune of an upper 4 ERA. If he is Dylan Bundy like in 2024... we didn't improve our rotation... we hurt it.      

2. Polanco was our 2nd best hitter in my opinion. Lewis #1... Polanco #2. No muss... No Fuss. No platoon... send him to the plate in the top 3 of the order.  

3. Julien requires Farmer... Julien wasn't allowed to face lefthanders. He was not just platooned... he was violently platooned. He was taken out of the game before he even swung a bat against the Giants because they threw an opener for a single inning. Nearly every team has a left hander in the pen. Once they activate the lefty against Julien... he is done for the day. He won't be at the plate in the 9th inning when you need a Julien type hitter to deliver a key hit because he will have been removed from the game. I love Julien... Julien looks to be really really really good hitter but he can't adequately replace Polanco if you need a right handed hitting handcuff to keep Julien away from left handed pitchers. Now of course... maybe this year... they take the chains off and let Julien swing against the lefties. That'll make me happy but it will also piss me off because development was wasted at worst, delayed at best last year.

OK... let's say that this year... they let him to face lefties... now you have removed the safety net in Polanco. You can come North out of Florida all pretty... Julien vs RH and Farmer vs LF but that prettiness doesn't last long. Injuries will mess you up. If Farmer or Correa get hurt... Farmer is no longer able to be that platoon bat. Yeah, they can call up Martin to be that short side handcuff... well... Now you screwing up Martin's development. 

I have no issue with the bullpen arm required.

The Twins may have gotten more value because of the high ranked young prospect but 2024 is not better afterwards... it is worse. However... I'm going to wait until the off season concludes to reserve final judgement.    

[rv78]

Unless this trade helps make another one happen it does little to help the Twins. I agree with most of Doctor Gast and his view with one exception. Trading Polanco for a top prospect wouldn't have been bad. Problem was they didn't get that "Top" prospect. Looking at the trade they got an aging .500 level type starting pitcher that has health issues. Does that sound familiar? (Mahle) They got an older relief pitcher that has had 1 good season in the majors in his career. In fact, outside of last season he had only thrown 18 innings total in the 3 years before that. That's his MLB history folks. Hardly anything to bank on there. Does that sound familar? (JLopez) They got a good prospect, not a top prospect and another throw in player that are a dime a dozen. Numbers for cash are being thrown around from 5 to 8 million. If they are saving $8M with this deal, they accomplished their main goal. To cut payroll. Remember when Falvine was hired, they said there goal was to make the Twins a perennial contender? That was 8 years ago and they have 3 playoff wins to their name. If they weren't in the easiest division in baseball they wouldn't even be making the playoffs. These guys are a joke. They haven't developed 1 Ace type pitcher for the organization. Isn't that what they were known for in Cleveland? Zilch there. Disco is 1 thing ...... insurance for Paddack. Neither can be relied upon for a full season. Varland hasn't shown he is ready, other than for a bullpen role, which is where 90% of the Twins minor league starters end up if they make it to the majors. The goal each year should be to make your Major League roster better. They haven't done that .... yet.

[Cory Engelhardt]

7 minutes ago, arby58 said:

He's two seasons removed from a 13-7, 31 starts, 168 innings pitched and 3.19 ERA season. He had a couple other decent years as a starting pitcher before that. Granted, the last two years have been injury-filled, but I'd assume the Twins have had the opportunity to 'look under the hood.' If he is healthy, he may well be part of the rotation, at least at some point in the year. They'll probably need 7 or 8 starting pitchers by the end of the season anyway. They traded for him, so it's a little different from some of the free agent pitcher 'dumpster dives' of the past.

I mean, I certainly think he has a better shot to help a team (if healthy) than some of the other #5 types that have gotten big deals this offseason. 

I more am just saying that Varland is good and should be on the team in some capacity, and I still think adding a playoff level arm is coming. But it's certainly possible that in-season trades will augment the rotation too.

 

[arby58]

40 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

Not much of a great trade for Twins at this point.  Desclafani is probably a one year fill in as he is a free agent at the end of 2024 season.  Plus he's making around 12 million so I doubt they will extend him.  Also the reliever we got is ok but realistically he's only had one decent year.  He is injury prone.  Sounds like a typical Twin.  The 6-8 million in cash may be the best IF Twins use it to acquire some more talent and not just to improve the bottom line.  Yes it was time to move Polanco.  At this time has it made the 2024 team better. No way.

Topa's first three years at the major league level only amounted to a total of 18 innings. Last year, he was a key piece of Seattle's bullpen, 75 games, 69 innings pitched, 2.61 ERA. That innings pitched and ERA stat line compares favorably with  every pitcher in the Twins 2023 bullpen not named Duran,  Saying 'he's only had one decent year' is the kind of thing you could also say about the Twins Brock Stewart.

[stringer bell]

23 minutes ago, arby58 said:

He's two seasons removed from a 13-7, 31 starts, 168 innings pitched and 3.19 ERA season. He had a couple other decent years as a starting pitcher before that. Granted, the last two years have been injury-filled, but I'd assume the Twins have had the opportunity to 'look under the hood.' If he is healthy, he may well be part of the rotation, at least at some point in the year. They'll probably need 7 or 8 starting pitchers by the end of the season anyway. They traded for him, so it's a little different from some of the free agent pitcher 'dumpster dives' of the past.

There is a chance that DeSclafani is being underrated here. To start the 2023 season, he was very effective through early May. Was the decline injury-related?

We can assume that he is reporting to be fully healthy, but health has to be a big question mark with him.

It is also unclear if his stuff is as good as it was in 2021 as he’ll be 34 all season, but if he’s healthy I’d give him the benefit of the doubt. Finally, his home park in SF was one of the best parks for pitchers in the NL.

More on DeSclafani: He has a lifetime ERA+ of 101, with three seasons where he was significantly better (2016, 2019 and 2021). His lifetime ERA and FIP line up. To me, that profiles as middle-of-the-rotation starter. The last two years cast doubt that he’ll be that good. The contract he signed after 2021 also was for better than “innings eater”. 
 

 

[arby58]

1 minute ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I mean, I certainly think he has a better shot to help a team (if healthy) than some of the other #5 types that have gotten big deals this offseason. 

I more am just saying that Varland is good and should be on the team in some capacity, and I still think adding a playoff level arm is coming. But it's certainly possible that in-season trades will augment the rotation too.

The Athletic quotes Falvey as saying they will spend the saved money from the deal, but it might be for a position player. My guess is they are targeting an actual centerfielder or a right handed hitting first baseman.

I agree with you about Varland. He combined to throw 150 innings last year between AAA and the Twins, so he's more than capable of being an every day starting pitcher. He's got the stuff, probably just needs a bit more experience.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Just now, arby58 said:

The Athletic quotes Falvey as saying they will spend the saved money from the deal, but it might be for a position player. My guess is they are targeting an actual centerfielder or a right handed hitting first baseman.

I agree with you about Varland. He combined to throw 150 innings last year between AAA and the Twins, so he's more than capable of being an every day starting pitcher. He's got the stuff, probably just needs a bit more experience.

If it were me, would you spend the money to upgrade 1B (Kirilloff and Miranda) or backup CF (Castro) and/or corner OF (Gordon?)

My mind went first to JD Martinez. Maybe Adam Duvall. Either of their bats would help.

[wabene]

23 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Everyone seems to ignore Polanco was not going to be a starter on this team.  Julien is the primary 2B but he will be platooned.  Farmer is actually the better hitter against LHP.  His wRC+ is 25 points higher than Polanco.  In a back-up role at least half of the ABs should come against LHP.  Polanco is the better defender at 2B and by far the better defender at 3B.  They also have Castro who hit RHP as well as Polanco last year.   If we didn't have Lewis / Julien / Castro, I might agree losing Polanco would be a significant net loss.  However, the combination of Julien / Lewis / Farmer and Castro is no worse than if Polanco was inserted given the reality Polanco is not a starter with this roster.  Then, add 3 years of a solid RP and SP depth, and I think the team is better.  Now, add a top 100 prospect and you have the reason why neutral parties like ESPN are grading this trade in favor of the Twins.

Also, DJL44 is absolutely right about how the league is valuing pitching depth / guys like DeSclafani.  He has value here or perhaps in another trade, especially given Seattle and SFG are paying most of his salary.

I think you meant Farmer

[IndianaTwin]

On the 2024 team...

1. Realistically, Polanco wasn't going to get more than 350-400 at bats, which now get spread among some combination of Larnach, Miranda, Julien, Kirilloff, Lee and perhaps others. Aren't we clamoring to let the kids play?

2. DeSclafini doesn't line up at the top of the rotation, but after his 2021 (130 ERA+), there were certainly folks on TD who were interested. Yes, that was two winters ago, but the past two years have been injury-riddled. I trust the Twins doctors more than I trust us on TD. At any rate, what this does is greatly increase the likelihood that SWR doesn't make the opening day rotation. Because without DeSclafini, the Twins were only one injury away from that happening.

3. DeSclafini may not improve the No. 5 spot, but I think he greatly improves the No. 6 spot by having Varland there rather than SWR. Last year we were worked up about Ober starting the season in St. Paul and he was up by the end of April. Varland hasn't done as much through 2023 as Ober had done through 2022, so I'm not concerned about Varland not being in the opening day rotation. If he's healthy and pitches anywhere close to solidly in his first start or two at St. Paul, he will make a start for the Twins by the end of April by virtue of an injury. If he doesn't, that means health -- cool!

4. The Twins approach to the bullpen is to throw a lot of darts at the wall and see who sticks. In Topa, they just got another dart. I don't know if he can be counted on to be in the Jax/Thielbar/Stewart group at 2-4 in the bullpen, but it sure seems like he's another in the Alcala/Funderburk/Staumont/Headrick... group. Topa even has two options, which adds flexibility.

5. And that doesn't take into account the freed up money, particularly if, as noted above, Seattle is chipping in $8M. 

(And then there's the prospects.)

 

I've often said that this team's MO is generally not to make massive moves, and this isn't one of them. Instead, they seem to make moves that keep nudging the needle in the right direction. It seems this one does some of that, and we still don't know the carryover effect to other moves that are in the pipeline. 

 

[Otaknam]

This trade is about opening playing time for Lee and dumping Polanco’s salary. DiSclafani looks like an overpriced number five starter, but does add depth that is always needed. And it looks like the Mariners kicked in $8 million to offset this salaries. Hopefully DiSclafani has an upside and can give the team effective innings. The trade also provides proven depth to the BP, which is never a bad idea. Farmer and his $6 million is likely the next guy gone in a salary move, leaving Castro and/or Gordon as a Swiss Army knife type bench player. IF Buxton can play CF regularly, then Lee can get at bats as DH and move around the infield, giving CORREA, LEWIS AND Julien days off or days as DH. Aside from Correa that’s a very young prospect laden infield. 

[arby58]

3 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

There is a chance that DeSclafani is being underrated here. To start the 2023 season, he was very effective through early May. Was the decline injury-related?

We can assume that he is reporting to be fully healthy, but health has to be a big question mark with him.

It is also unclear if his stuff is as good as it was in 2021 as he’ll be 34 all season, but if he’s healthy I’d give him the benefit of the doubt. Finally, his home park in SF was one of the best parks for pitchers in the NL. 

The home/away question is interesting. That year, he was 8-3 at home with a 3.10 ERA and a 1.073 WHIP. On the road, he was 5-4, 3.22 ERA, 1.105 WHIP, slightly better at home. Interestingly his strike out rate was better away. The one area that does stand out was he gave up 4 home runs at home, and 15 on the road.

[wabene]

20 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Why can't he be rotation depth and act as the long guy/6th man?

I still think there is a good chance they roll with 6 starters to be honest.

They have shown that even when they had multiple guys on innings limitations, they still wouldn't go for the 6 man rotation. The 6 man rotation sounds good on paper, but from a roster and usage standpoint it's not that easy. Same with the long man role. The Twins long man has been a fringe guy who sits on the bench for a week without being used while they try to win games using better relievers. Louie needs to be in St Paul getting regular starts and working on his third pitch. 

[Guest]

They traded surplus, filled a couple of holes and got some future upside.  It's one thing to look at this deal and ask, is this all for 2024?  One can criticize this deal on that basis.  But, it's highly likely this is but the first of several steps before the season opens and they got a lot for Polo.