Supfin99

Not sure how taking a guy that was projected to b a borderline 1st rounder at 60 is a wasted pick. He could easily be a Keaschel clone and be at Wichita next year and a top 100 prospect.

Wow I really couldn’t disagree with this view more. They trade a 30 yr old infielder from a position of depth n who has played a total of 184 games combined the last 2 seasons for solid reliever, a depth starter a slightly poorer version of our 3rd best prospect and an intriguing arm. This is a great trade that may actually have done both, improve a team now n in the future.

So the Twins have to replace 2 pitchers that had a combined record of below .500, have Paddock, Varland, Canterino, Lewis, Wallner and Julien for whole season, Correa and Burton really can’t do worse and yet the Twins will win 10 less games this season? Got it.

Why do the Twins need to acquire a pitcher for next season? They have Lopez, Ryan, Paddock, Ober and Varland already penciled in. Festa and Marco Rays will provide depth as well as Woods-Richardson.

No way I would trade him now. Saying he has a 4 ERA is a little misleading. He’s been a sub 4 ERA pitcher in all 3 of his full seasons with an ERA + of 112 to 122. Only 2 outliers were his 1st year getting his feet wet and last season. His career stats are skewed somewhat by a very rough beginning to his career. I’d rather have a proven sub 4 guy that only never misses a start for the season and 2 thirds. We can still get a draft pick for him then. Twins are going to contend this season and next and will need a pitcher like Berrios.

There is still plenty of time to make moves. I like that the Twins are waiting out the market. Especially in the bullpen where year to year performance is so hard to predict. I believe there is a very good chance that teams that struck early like Mets for May and White Sox for Hendricks and Astros for Báez are going to be very disappointed when they see what’s other quality relievers end up settling for in early Feb. My prediction right now is that the Twins get 2 guys who perform better than May in 21 for about half of what he will be paid.

The WAR from their relievers comes 90% from Hendricks. I wrote an article about this yesterday. Yes Hendricks is worth about 1.5 WAR more than Colome but the games are still played. Last year the White Sox were perfect in games that Colome pitched, meaning that Colome never was responsible for a loss. The 3 games they lost when Colome pitched, 2 were in extra innings where Colome pitched a perfect 9th to send it to extras. Hendricks peripherals may give them a higher WAR but it is hard to better than perfect as far as actual wins and losses.

So ESPN and Jeff Passan just published an article saying the White Sox are the team to beat now in the American League. He feels that way now due to them signing Hendricks. Now Hendricks is a very good reliever and might be the best closer in all of baseball. But how much better did he actually make them? If the White Sox had a bullpen like the Phillies last year and still only last out to us by 1 game I might buy all this hype but they didn’t. Alex Colomé pitched great as a closer last year and that is who Hendricks is replacing. Last year Colomé pitched in 21 games in the regular season and the White Sox went 18-3 in those games with Colomé saving 12 of those wins and having no losses. Of the 3 team losses, 2 were in extra innings where Colomé pitched a shutout ninth to get the games into extras. How much better could anyone have pitched in the closer position for the White Sox last year? They couldn’t have because Colomé was not responsible for the losing runs scored in any of the 21 games he pitched in. I know that Hendricks peripheral numbers were all better than Colomé but at the end of the day it is still about wins and losses. How much can Hendricks really improve them when Colomé was basically perfect last year from a win loss standpoint? Are the White Sox a definite challenger for the AL Central? Absolutely they are. Are they the favorite for the AL? Maybe, but not because they just signed the best closer in the baseball. They already received “perfect” production from the closer position last season and all they can do is go down from there.

I just read the ESPN article about possible super teams or teams that will win 100 games. The locks listed were the Yankees, Astros and Dodgers. In the American League the Rays were the teams listed as the Prime Contender and the wild cards were the Twins and the Angels. The fact that we were listed with the Angels, a team that won 72 games last year, is a story for anther post. The question on the Twins was"if their pitching works out". Last time I checked we won 101 games last year and I don't see how our lineup is not at least as good if not even better this year with Arraez and Buxton for a whole year and Donaldson replacing Cron. So let's discuss our pitching. We have Berrios and Odorizzi back, and I will discuss them in greater detail shortly. The next players that pitched the most innings were Kyle Gibson, Martin Perez and Michael Pineda. Pineda will miss almost exactly a quarter of the season but has a good chance of matching last years innings total of 149 or at least coming close. Big Mike also gets to pitch only in the warmer months which seemed to be his best part of last season. So the staff comparison really comes down to replacing Gibson and Perez. Those 2 combined to make 58 starts and pitch 325 innings last year. Gibson had a 5.12 ERA and Perez had 4.84. They both had WHIP around 1.5. That is what we are replacing. That is not exactly Koufax and Drysdale. Even if the Maeda trade falls thru the leading candidates to replace those 2 are Homer Bailey, Randy Dobnak, Devin Smeltzer and Lewis Thorpe. For Dobnak, Smeltzer and Thorpe their respective ERA's were 1.59, 3.86 and 6.18. Both Dobnaks and Thorpes ERA's were a little misleading. The respective FIP for those 3 was 2.90, 4.58 and 3.47. For comparison sake Gibson and Perez came in at 4.26 and 4.66. Thorpe takes a huge jump due to his excellent SO totals and an unsustainable .438 BABIP. Where is this huge drop-off that would cause our win total to plummet? If anything it looks like we would be slightly better if those 3 combined to eat up the innings pitched by Perez and Gibson. Homer Bailey pitched decent last year after 4 years of not pitching much or well. His 163 IP was the most he had managed since 2013. It was his 1st time with an ERA below 5.5 since 2014. Martin Perez was coming off a similar 2018 in which he didn't much but when he did he was terrible. If Bailey can repeat his 2019, his numbers across the board would be better than what Perez was able to do last season. However you look at the candidates at the back end of the rotation I don't see how you can make any sensible argument that we are worse off then we were last year at this time. Knowing now what we received from Gibson and Perez and seeing what the peripherals were for the candidates to replace them, it would be hard to not acknowledge that we are at least as well off going into this season if not actually in a better position than last year. Now let's look at Jose Berrios. I think he will continue his improvement and will climb to be one of the top 20 pitchers in baseball. Last year Jose's overall numbers took a slight downturn from his previous season even though his ERA ended up slightly lower. His H/9 and K/9 were both slightly better in 2018. But a big reason for this very slight downturn we due to a very bad 6 game stretch in Aug and the 1st week of Sept. His numbers during that 6 game stretch were truly awful. 6 G 31.1 IP 47 H 29 R 15 BB 36 SO 8 HR Those numbers equate to averages of 8.33 ERA 13.5 H/9 4.31 BB/9 10.35 K/9 1.98 WHIP 2.31 HR/9 His number in his other 26 starts were ACE level performance 26 G 169 IP 147 H 53 R 36 BB 159 SO 18 HR This lead to averages of 2.82 ERA 7.72 H/9 1.91 BB/9 8.46 K/9 1.07 WHIP 0.96 HR/9 So before Aug 1 Berrios was having a season that would have put him among the very best pitchers in baseball and would have definitely garnered him Cy Young votes. Now I know you can't cherry pick numbers and every start counts. But I do think that Berrios had a bad stretch that somewhat misleadingly brought down the rest of his numbers. This was a time when maybe his arm was tired, or he had a little bit of a confidence crisis or maybe just some bad luck. Could have been a mixture of all 3. I love Berrios' work ethic and I feel certain he sent this entire offseason working towards finding a solution for his late season fade. It really is the last step for him to becoming a truly elite pitcher. He may not be the ace of a Verlander or Cole level, but who is. There are maybe 5 pitchers in all of baseball who are at that level. Where Berrios can slide into is the next tier of the top 20 pitchers in baseball. Not sure what everyone else's definition of ace is but I think top 20 is pretty close. If we do acquire Maeda, it isn't even comparable to last season. He would immediately be a vast improvement over Gibson and Perez.

At what cost though? Also what are the chances that Graterol or Balazovic becomes a 1 or a 2? Or Cole Sands or Blayne Emlow or Jhoan Duran? All 5 of these guys have either pitched in AA or will this year. That means they are closet being in the majors. At least on and most likely 2 of these guys will have to be included to get a top of the rotation starter. This team is built to contend for easily the next 3 to 4 years with the current crop plus Kiriloff, Lewis, Larnach, Rooker and company are close to making their debuts. I'd rather keep all my pitching prospects for another year and see where we are. Graterol and Balazovic could be pitching in our rotation come July of this season.

Hey Jeremy this is by far the best blueprint I have seen. Contract for Wheeler makes sense, he’s the FA pitcher I want the most. Might be a little low on the annual salaries to get some of these guys to sign Like Odorizzi, Wheeler and Rogers but we will see.

Or another way to look at this season is that the Twins have starters age 27 or younger at all 3 outfield spots, 3B, SS, 2B and C. They a 2 time All-Star pitcher that is 25. They have 1 of the best relievers in baseball with 3 years left of team control. They have top prospects coming up in OF/1B (Rooker, Kirilloff, Raley), SS/2B (Lewis, Gordon), C (Rortvedt, Jeffers), Starters (Graterol, Duran, Colina, Gonsalves, Ober, Balazovic, Sands). Everyone of these players has played at least at AA except for Balazovic who has spent most of the year at High A and will most likely start next season at AA. I don’t think the window is closing real soon.

I have tickets available for tomorrow’s game against Royals. 4cseats in sec 120.

Only 3. 5 hours to game time. I don't want the tickets to go unused. If you want to go to the game tonight let me know.

Hey everyone I just bought 4 season tickets for 20 games the rest of the season. I live in Dallas and will be going to just a few games when we come home and I will give some away to friends and family. I also want to use some of the games to raise money for a cause I feel strongly about, as former military, the Wounded Warriors Project. I’m hopeful that we will auction off tickets to raise money for WWP. The first game I have available is for tonight. I am still working out the logistics of doing an auction on Twins Daily with Seth and the gang so tonight will be on the honor system. If anyone knows a veteran or would be willing to donate $100 to WWP the tickets are yours. Just respond in the comments and I will send you the tickets. My seats for tonight’s game are Section 107, row 7 seats 11 thru 14. They are really nice seats. Please take photos of you at the game and post to Twins Daily. I really want to raise awareness for the 1st auction. The link for making a donation https://support.woundedwarriorproject.org/Default.aspx?tsid=10043

I’m guessing we will hear shortly that Steer and to some extent Gray signed for below slot. Then the Twins will use that extra money to grab a few guys who slip. Then some of the Twins fans who can’t help but see the sky falling can take a breath.

First let me say I realize that this article will probably disappoint most fans because I am going to list out all of the internal options the Twins have versus trading away prospects. One of the biggest reason I feel this way is that for all the groaning I read in the comments section about our bullpen, it has been really good for a vast majority of the time. Some of the fungible pieces that the Twins have rotated thru the bottom of the bullpen such as Austin Adams, Chase DeJong and Andrew Vasquez have given up a lot of runs. Those 3 alone have given up 12 runs in only 3.2 innings. Taking just those 3 out gives the bullpen a 3.59 ERA. The top10 pieces in the bullpen which I list as B Parker, T Rogers, T May, R Harper, M Magill, M Morin, T Duffey, F Romero, T Hildenberger and Z Littell have combined for an ERA 2.92 of over 130.1 innings. They have allowed 119 hits and 40 walks for a whip of 1.22 and struck out 133. Those are all excellent numbers. It shows we don't need to rush into a deal and give away prospects for relievers. Reason number 2 is my list below. These are all internal options who should be given a chance. 1. Cody Stashak Cody is domination AA right now and is deserving of a promotion to AAA any day. He has 35Ks against just 3 walks in 23 innings and only has allowed 14 hits. Cody basically pitched the entire season last year in AA also with excellent numbers. He's ready for AAA and could soon be ready for the majors. The prospect handbook says his FB sits in low 90s with good life and has a good CB and changeup. 2. Kohl Stewart The Twins may have the same idea as me when it comes to trying some of these starters have been decent but not outstanding at AA and AAA and see if they can squeeze just a little better stuff out of them by moving them to the bullpen. Zack Littell came up and looked really good last night. The same could happen for Stewart. Stewart numbers have been OK as a starter at AAA, 71.1 IP between last year and this with an ERA of 4.13 on 75 hits allowed and 28 BB. His K/9 is 7.95. His FB sits in low 90's but he can hit 96,97. Only having to pitch an inning or 2 should allow those upper 90's FB to become more consistent. 3. Lewis Thorpe Thorpedo has looked very good in his last 3 outings. In his last 16 innings he's given up 5 runs on 15 hits with while his K/BB is 19 to 1. His FB sits 92-94 but he could also get a bump by moving to BP. He also would provide a second lefty. 4. Brusdar Graterol I think there is a very good reason that the Twins are limiting his IP so far this year. In looking at the boxscores it looks like Graterol has been on an 80 pitch limit in games. This has limited his IP to an average of 5 per game. I think the Twins have every intention of Graterol pitching at Target Field later this season. That could be in a 5th starter role to replace Pineda or replacing someone that is injured. Or he could take the Johan Santana route and get his feet wet in big leagues as a reliever. Out of the bullpen Graterol would most likely sit at 99/100. His changeup and slider are good pitches. He would be a dynamic weapon out of the pen in Sept and Oct. We know speed plays up when the weather turns cold in Oct. I doubt it is fun to hit a 100MPH FB when it is 45 degrees in Minneapolis in Oct. There are other starters who this might work for such as Jorge Alcala and Devin Smeltzer. A few other relievers who might be options are Jovani Moran, Tom Hackimer, who has been lights out this year and was recently promoted to AA and Jake Reed. Moving a few of these starters to the bullpen for a playoff run is not a permanent switch. I absolutely Brusdar starting games next season but if he can help us compete in the playoffs this season by pitching out of the pen I am all for it. With all of these options I would love too see a few of them get a shot before we start shipping out prospects to rent a reliever. With all of this said I am still absolutely hoping the Twins sign Kimbrel. Not just make a run but outbid everyone for his services. After next weekend it costs us nothing but money. Even if you have to go 3 years and almost 60 mil it is worth it. The Twins have very little salary on the books in the next 3 years. They can absolutely afford to pay Kimbrel 18 mil a year for the next 3 seasons and still make a run at Gerrit Cole in the offseason.

Talking about the Indians. When I looked at the opening lineup card I actually thought it was a post from a spring training game. That lineup is putrid. The great thing is the only person they are really missing is Lindor. Lindor is fantastic but he can’t make up for the rest of the poopoo platter that the Indians are going to trot out there on a daily basis. The Indians are going to be great at 2 spots with Lindor and Ramires and average at another with Santana. There is a good chance they will be below average to bad at the rest of the spots in the order. Even with that rotation, it’s hard to win every game 2-1. I wrote about this earlier in the spring, what happens if Lindor or Ramirez miss time or just simply aren’t as great as they’ve been the last 3 years? Then this lineup becomes one of the worst in baseball which is what we saw yesterday. Seriously Tyler Naquin batting 3rd? He wouldn’t even make the Twins roster. Lindor now has to wait for his ankle to heal then basically start spring training over again. He may miss the entire month of April. This division is absolutely for the taking. This isn’t an over reaction to 1 game. And don’t tell me they were missing Jason Kipnis also. Kipnis has been below average for 2 years.

I agree with what you are saying. I get why the players are mad but at this point it is kind of like screaming into the wind. Clubs have adjusted, they don't want to play for declining years. But players are still insisting on this. That isn't going to work. What they fight for is earlier forays into free agency. This can happen in the next CBA. A solution that also takes care of the service time issue at the beginning of players MLB career is a set amount of time from draft or signing. Say 8 years after draft for a high schooler and 6 years for a college player. This ensures that all players are free agents by 26 to 28 and have numerous years of prime earning years left. It also motivates clubs to not mess around and get their best players to the majors as quickly as possible.

Players are upset because nobody wants to pay them when they are 35 any more. It's just common sense to not pay someone for their declining years. A vast majority of these long term contract have been bad if not outright disastrous for the clubs. If Machado and Harper had been willing to sign 5 to 7 year deals they would have been signed months ago. It isn't the owners fault that the players have not adjusted their demand to meet the current climate.

Name me 3 teams in MLB that don't have question marks on 40% of their rotation? The Indians might be the only team that you can look at as being 4 deep. But the nice thing about the Indians is that as great as their rotation is that's how bad the rest of their team is minus Lindor and Ramirez. Their entire outfield, right side of their infield and catcher are all below average and could be terrible. Thru the top 6 players, the Indians are as talented as any team in baseball. The only problem with that is what happens if just one of those guys gets hurt and misses a substantial part of the season?

So I posted this 3 years ago almost to the day. It’s funny to look at some of these theses names and see how wrong I was. But also how some remain true. Still waiting on Buck and Sano to figure it out. Man was I wrong about the bullpen as None of the arms I listed made it except for Rogers. I think we may have a few of the secondary stars in Rosario, Polanco and Kepler. I think Berrios is a 2 and Gibson is a solid 3. Still need another # 2 caliber pitcher ( please be Graterol or Romero) or Berrios to develop into a true ace. The things that needs to happen for the Twins to win a title in the next few years. I break it down into 4 points. 1). Sano and Buxton need to emulate the Army and be all they can be. Both these guys have been at the top of prospect rankings for years. If the Twins are going to win a championship or 2 they have to become the studs they have the talent to be. For Sano this means becoming a prodigious power hitter. Sano needs to become a guy that regularly hits 35 homers and 35 doubles a year. I'm not saying he needs to be like Miggy and bat .330 also. We know he is going to strike out a lot but we will take that as long as we get the power and the patience. Buxton needs to become one of the best CFers in baseball. We know Buck has the tools to be the best defensive center fielder from day one. The bat needs to develop also. He needs to be a .300 hitter with some power and patience. A .300/.350/.475 with 15 homers, 50 steals and 100 plus runs every year. They need to be our Mauer and Morneau, potential MVP candidates year in and year out. 2) They need 7 points or less out of top 3 starters in rotation. I assign points to a starter according to their status as a number 1, 2 or 3 starter. Lower the point the better. The traditional way is for this to have a 1, a 2 and a 3. A true ace or number 1 starter, a very good number 2 and a solid number 3. I think teams like the Royals have shown that you can get by without an ace if you have several 2's and 3's. So out of the group of Gibson, Duffy, Berrios, Gonsalves, Stewart and Thorpe we need to get a true number 1 or at least a couple of 2's. I am a big fan of Kyle Gibson and believe he is already a 3 with a chance to go to a 2 if the SO ratio from the end of last season continues in 2016. I also believe Berrios will be a at least a 3 with a very good chance of being a 2 and at certain times to look like a 1. We need 1 more guy to hit the level of a number 2 starter. I still like Stewart's chances and I'm intrigued by Gonsalves, I really am hoping for Thorpe. If he can recover from TJ surgery and continue on the path he started on he may be able to still reach that level. 3). 3 bullpen pieces need to become lights out. In my post from last week I talked about not wanting to sign overpriced veteran arms. This is the reason why. We need these guys to have room to pitch in the majors. There is a large talented group of bullpen arms who are close to being ready for the big leagues. Burdi, Reed, Chargois, Tonkin, Meyer, Perterson, and a few others from the right side and Melotakis, Rogers, Booser from the left. 3 of these guys need to become lights out shut down relievers. My hope would be that the 3 ends up being Burdi, Melotakis and Chargois. 2 righties and a lefty that all throw 97 plus. A top 5 out of the pen with closer Perkins, May the set up man and then these 3 to pitch the 6th, 7th and eighth looks outstanding. 4). 2 additional secondary stars need to develop out of remaining cast You can't win with 2 stars and then nothing else in your lineup. You have to have depth so they don't just pitch around Buck and Sano. There is a plenty of potential names. Rosario, Kepler, Walker III, Park, Gordon, Polanco and others. We have Plouffe and Dozier already in place. I don't think they're stars but are very solid players but will they still be here in 3 years? Can Rosario build on his rookie year and keep his power stats while developing better patience? If he can truly become an annual 5 by 15 player (homers, triples, doubles, steals and assists) then he doesn't need to get on base at a .330 clip but at least an OBP of .300 is needed. Can Kepler become a big leaguer with stats that approach what he did last year for Chatanooga? Can Gordon become a SS that can hit .300/.350/.400 while playing good defense? Can Park's power translate to MLB and annually hit 25+ homers? We need at least 2 of these guys to develop into borderline all stars. SO that is a lot of good things that need to happen to win a World Series. The nice thing is there are lot of options. In the BP there are 8 or 9 guys that have potential and you just need 3. There are numerous good starting pitchers in the system and we only need 1 or 2 to hit the high end of their potential spectrum. There are quite a few position players who have performed at a very high level in the minors and we just need a coupe to continue that production. I know there is a very high failure rate with prospects, that is why you need to have so many options. I believe there is enough pieces currently in our system for a few of them to become these type of players. If we can roll out in 2018 with 2 potential MVP candidates in Sano and Buxton, a top 3 in the rotation of Number 1 Berrios, Number 2 Thorpe, Number 3 Gibson, borderline all stars in Rosario, Kepler and Gibson and lights out bullpen the Twins will win a World Series in the near future.

Very insightful.