TRADE: Twins Send Jorge Polanco to Mariners in Five-Player Deal

[harmony55]

With the trade five American League teams are within 1.6 WAR of each other for the league's third highest projected WAR at FanGraphs:

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Team

[LastOnePicked]

8 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

With all the trading this front office has done over the years, and all this future value accruing over time, the Twins must be forecast for like 230 wins this year! 🙂

230 Wins and -68 Losses. Cannot wait to get this season started.

[AlwaysinModeration]

With that $6mm they get back for this trade, I think the Twins have just enough scratch to sign Jordan Montgomery.

Right???

[wabene]

27 minutes ago, William K Johnson said:

Who's going to play second base?

I'll bet you a Labatts Julien will win you over at second. 

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Pretty underwhelmed. 

Desclafani most likely doesn't help the Twins in any meaningful way.

DeSclafini is contract ballast. He's the 3rd best player the Twins got in the deal.

[Bright Twins]

Pretty fair deal. Good reliever in Topa.

But, the rest is a bit of a gamble. DeScalfani has sub 4 era when healthy, so a possible scoop, but possible nothing if elbow has not fully healed. Gonzalez was their #3 prospect. Bowen could fly.

If one of the last three pan out then good deal.

[DocBauer]

56 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

As far as I'm concerned the Twins still need to add a starter.  DeScalfani might be cooked. I assume the Twins had to take him to help out Seattle's payroll.

In a hypothetical world, it would have made more financial sense to send Polanco and a couple prospects to Seattle to let them keep their young arms...which they said they wanted to do...and trade Castillo. 

Castillo would FIT in to the 2024 budget, and probably cap the Twins there. But a win-win for both teams. 

The Twins lose Kepler's $10M salary in 2025, but have some raises to give, most notably to Lopez. But Farmer comes off the books as well. POTENTIALLY, TV and streaming deals also look different in 2025.

But with a roster that is mostly young and cost controlled, it would require at least a bit of ownership tightening of the belt to make it work, unless 2025 and future deals looked pretty good.

And it's possible Castillo waiving his no trade could have involved additional numbers. So maybe it just wouldn't work in the long run. But I sure would have liked to see that "dangerous" of a move.

[SteveLV]

I am curious how much additional cash beyond $6M that the Mariners got from the Giants is heading to the Twins.  Hope it is significant if that allows additional moves to bolster the 2024 roster.

 

[tony&rodney]

27 minutes ago, harmony55 said:

A Seattle beat reporter offers her take on the trade:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cMydZACP8hc

 

Yeah, this is what we knew last November. Dipoto wanted Polanco and Kepler. The Twins are short on outfielders and wouldn't talk Kepler. Dipoto played it cool, laid low and struck. Shannon is right on the mark. The Mariners improved dramatically at 2nd, 3rd, and at utility by adding Polanco. You noticed that she emphatically states that the Mariners have zero concerns about Polanco's health. I didn't either, but as you have read many across Twins Daily believe Polanco's career is over. I guess we shall see soon enough. Good for the Mariners. 

BTW, I really believe that Jerry would have traded Miller or Woo for Polanco plus a #6-12 prospect if Falvey had waited a couple of months. We'll never know.

[wabene]

35 minutes ago, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

A combination of a weird French dude, a guy who just had jaw surgery, the coach's kid on a new team, the younger brother of a guy who used to be really good at baseball, and a bum who got non-tendered by a garbage AL Central team.

[terrydactyls]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Is anyone paying attention to the fact Seattle is sending millions to Minnesota before posting?

But that would screw up their complaint.  Facts should never get in the way of an argument.

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Yeah, this is what we knew last November. Dipoto wanted Polanco and Kepler. The Twins are short on outfielders and wouldn't talk Kepler. Dipoto played it cool, laid low and struck. Shannon is right on the mark. The Mariners improved dramatically at 2nd, 3rd, and at utility by adding Polanco. You noticed that she emphatically states that the Mariners have zero concerns about Polanco's health. I didn't either, but as you have read many across Twins Daily believe Polanco's career is over. I guess we shall see soon enough. Good for the Mariners. 

BTW, I really believe that Jerry would have traded Miller or Woo for Polanco plus a #6-12 prospect if Falvey had waited a couple of months. We'll never know.

Why do you think that last part? I don't for one minute. 

Why does anyone think Seattle is trading one of their good starters? That's not where they are competitively. And yes, neither are the twins, and I doubt the twins are done. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

I think they could still be in the market for a new starting pitcher, and probably also a right handed hitter. But this trade is interesting for sure. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I think it is a solid trade.  Polanco at his healthiest and best is an excellent player.  However, he is aging, less-healthy, less-available, and less of a defensive player than he used to be.  Certainly I would have liked to trade for Logan Gilbert or Bryan Woo, but undoubtedly they were asking for more (Lee? E-Rod? Julien?) than the Twins were willing to pay.  Polanco is also the most tradable asset the team had given the current infield depth.  He's good, but replaceable.

DeSclafani - Reasonable fifth starter.  Better than Dallas Keuchel and Aaron Sanchez.  Better than Happ and Shoemaker.  Allows the Twins to move Louis Varland into the Bailey Ober role (or into the bullpen).  If healthy, he could pitch 100 innings of decent ball.  If not, DFA him. 

Topa - He's old, but with options.  (Caleb Theilbar anyone?) He was very good last year, pitching around 70 innings at an ERA of under 3.00.  155 ERA+.  He will be quite valuable if he can duplicate that. 

Gonzalez - Top 100 prospect.  Not a finished product, but solid potential.  On paper, he's better than all but three of our prospects, so he can't completely suck. 

Bowen - He's a throw in, but a real wildcard who sounds like he could be a decent relief arm if things break right.  Not bad for a throw in.

$$$ - Always fungible.

Does this trade make the 2024 team better?  Great question, but I would say yes and the key is Topa.  He looks to be a reliable arm to slot into the bullpen.  The other key is helping to set the floor of the starting rotation by DeSclafani pushing Varland into the sixth starter role.  Will they miss Polanco?  Maybe a little in the clubhouse, but I think his offensive production will be replaced by some combination of Julien (mostly), Farmer, and Lee (eventually).  Nothing against Polanco, I'm a fan.  But, Topa and DeSclafani are more useful to this roster than Polanco, so that makes it a decent trade. 

Let's keep them coming. . .

 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

9 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

BTW, I really believe that Jerry would have traded Miller or Woo for Polanco plus a #6-12 prospect if Falvey had waited a couple of months. We'll never know.

I think Falvey would have made that trade in a heartbeat.  It likely wasn't on the table.  A trade like that would have required Julien or Lee as the centerpiece, plus likely a pitcher like Festa in return and that price is too high.

[stringer bell]

According to BB Ref, DeSclafani's salary will not cost the Twins much at all. San Francisco is paying half and the Mariners are paying $6M, meaning the Twins will pay no more than $2M. That does mean the Twins will have some money to spend. It also means that the Twins don't have significant money invested in DeSclafani, so if he's another Bundy, they would be less prone to hang on to him. 

[jorgenswest]

The 2024 Twins are not as good tonight as they were this morning.

[Blyleven2011]

2 hours ago, Dman said:

I think Topa is the headliner in this deal for the Twins.  He has a plus fastball and slider with a solid cutter.  Not a strike out guy unfortunately, but really good at generating ground balls.  Maybe the Twins can tweak a few things but he had a good year last year and maybe even more importantly he has two option years left.  Strengthening the pen should help.

I don't love Descalfini as the 5th starter addition, but they have Varland and hopefully SWR and Headrick to help as needed.  Maybe one of Festa or Ohl works there way up this year yet.

Gonzalez is rated number 3 in their system and in the top 100 on the MLB site I believe.  Lot's of concerns about plate discipline though and no projection left.  I hope this isn't like Salas again where the other team sold high.  Still he is a nice power oriented right handed bat.  Twins don't have much for the outfield at high A right now after moving Rodriguez and Rosario up so he is a system fit right now as well. He is only 20 but it is going to be a big year for him.

Bowen has a live arm with a plus fastball and slider.  That is generally what the Twins like in relievers.  Maybe they can add a sweeper or cutter as well.  Long way to go and not a control artist, but a nice lottery ticket.

Lot's of question marks but I guess Polo had his own question marks.  Hopefully some of these guys work out.  Especially the reliever as he seems to be what they were after for this years team.

When i first read the trade results , my thought to was Topa was the real value for now at least , desclafini was dumped on us for some salary relief for the mariners ...

I havent confirmed it yet but i heard mariners have sent 6 million to help pay down on desclafini salary ...

A top 100 outfield prospect  and a wild card pitcher , we'll have to see how that plays out ...

I sure hope desclafini is alot better than Bundy  , Bundy worked his tail off and I liked him for that , but his results weren't good  ...

[DocBauer]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Is that arm available from a team that wants Polanco? No idea, but I'm hard pressed to find such a team right now. 

Yes. That team was Seattle. At least IMO. 

Just look at it from a different perspective. They wanted, and frankly needed. Polanco. And they have the depth to trade 1 of about 5 arms depending on the package from Castillo to Miller to Hancock to Woo, etc. The Twins could given them some combination of Polanco, Larnach, Severino, Schobel. Rosario, J Rodriguez,  Mercedes, even an arm to replace whoever they gave up like Festa, (shudder moment), SWR, Jones, etc, to make a ONE STOP SHOP for both teams on a 1 for 3 deal, or a 2 for 4 deal where Topa is still included.

POTENTIALLY, the Mariners get Polanco, Larnach, Severino, and a quality arm for one of their arms and still keep their reported #3 prospect in Gonzalez. They don't even have to throw in the $6M they are sending to the Twins. 

[jmlease1]

14 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Yeah, this is what we knew last November. Dipoto wanted Polanco and Kepler. The Twins are short on outfielders and wouldn't talk Kepler. Dipoto played it cool, laid low and struck. Shannon is right on the mark. The Mariners improved dramatically at 2nd, 3rd, and at utility by adding Polanco. You noticed that she emphatically states that the Mariners have zero concerns about Polanco's health. I didn't either, but as you have read many across Twins Daily believe Polanco's career is over. I guess we shall see soon enough. Good for the Mariners. 

BTW, I really believe that Jerry would have traded Miller or Woo for Polanco plus a #6-12 prospect if Falvey had waited a couple of months. We'll never know.

I'm shocked, shocked, that after making a significant trade to acquire a player who has twice missed at least half the season due to injury, and missed 140 games over the past 2 seasons the said front office would say that they're not worried about his health. That's as credible as the Twins front office saying Buxton will have no problems playing CF this season.

Maybe the twins could have done better if they had waited longer, or maybe this was the best deal they could get from Seattle. Maybe no one else was particularly interested in Polanco. We won't know that either.

I still like this move for Seattle, but if Polanco only plays 100 games for them this year...then maybe not so much.

[TNtwins85]

Hold on to your panties naysayers. The Twins FO may be waking up from their winter slumber.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/01/falvey-twins-plan-to-reallocate-money-saved-in-polanco-trade.html

[pierre75275]

So...

Andrew D is getting paid 12m for 2024, 6 mil is already getting paid by the Giants, plus 6 mil is now getting paid by Seattle, the Twins will pay much less than league minimum for him, plus Seattle is also sending cash to pay for part of Topa's salary.

The Twins payroll will be around 115mil now. The cash coming back means two things. First, the Twins could dump Andy D for nothing and be out very little, second, just bc they traded for him, doesn't automatically place Varland in the pen. Paddock isn't going to be able to pitch a full yr coming off of TJ no 2. Varland will get starts next yr, as will SWR, and so might Headrick and Festa. 

So for Polanco, the twins got a N0 5 starter they are paying very little for, a middle reliever who was very good last yr, a top 80 prospect, and a throw in. 

Yeah I feel like that is a lot for Polanco, given his medical history the last 2 yrs and who the Twins have waiting to replace him

[jorgenswest]

I don’t believe for a minute that Seattle was trading starting pitching unless it was going to be one of the young arms for Dylan Cease. Seattle is setting their sights on contending. They don’t need to trade a good asset for a package of lesser assets that might include Polanco. Contending teams need to walk away with the best player in the deal.

We might have gotten their interest in a swap of Lewis for Gilbert. Maybe they would part with Woo or Miller for Julien but it seems they are trying to use those young pitchers to improve their staff.

If for some reason the Twins wanted DeSclafini the offer should have been Farmer or walk away.

[TNtwins85]

16 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I think it is a solid trade.  Polanco at his healthiest and best is an excellent player.  However, he is aging, less-healthy, less-available, and less of a defensive player than he used to be.  Certainly I would have liked to trade for Logan Gilbert or Bryan Woo, but undoubtedly they were asking for more (Lee? E-Rod? Julien?) than the Twins were willing to pay.  Polanco is also the most tradable asset the team had given the current infield depth.  He's good, but replaceable.

DeSclafani - Reasonable fifth starter.  Better than Dallas Keuchel and Aaron Sanchez.  Better than Happ and Shoemaker.  Allows the Twins to move Louis Varland into the Bailey Ober role (or into the bullpen).  If healthy, he could pitch 100 innings of decent ball.  If not, DFA him. 

Topa - He's old, but with options.  (Caleb Theilbar anyone?) He was very good last year, pitching around 70 innings at an ERA of under 3.00.  155 ERA+.  He will be quite valuable if he can duplicate that. 

Gonzalez - Top 100 prospect.  Not a finished product, but solid potential.  On paper, he's better than all but three of our prospects, so he can't completely suck. 

Bowen - He's a throw in, but a real wildcard who sounds like he could be a decent relief arm if things break right.  Not bad for a throw in.

$$$ - Always fungible.

Does this trade make the 2024 team better?  Great question, but I would say yes and the key is Topa.  He looks to be a reliable arm to slot into the bullpen.  The other key is helping to set the floor of the starting rotation by DeSclafani pushing Varland into the sixth starter role.  Will they miss Polanco?  Maybe a little in the clubhouse, but I think his offensive production will be replaced by some combination of Julien (mostly), Farmer, and Lee (eventually).  Nothing against Polanco, I'm a fan.  But, Topa and DeSclafani are more useful to this roster than Polanco, so that makes it a decent trade. 

Let's keep them coming. . .

 

I love this rational, not flying off the handle breakdown of all elements of this trade! Like you said this sets the floor of their pitching staff and adds a top 100 prospect. I would think there’s gonna be some back room dealing before the season begins.

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

I don’t believe for a minute that Seattle was trading starting pitching unless it was going to be one of the young arms for Dylan Cease. Seattle is setting their sights on contending. They don’t need to trade a good asset for a package of lesser assets that might include Polanco. Contending teams need to walk away with the best player in the deal.

We might have gotten their interest in a swap of Lewis for Gilbert. Maybe they would part with Woo or Miller for Julien but it seems they are trying to use those young pitchers to improve their staff.

If for some reason the Twins wanted DeSclafini the offer should have been Farmer or walk away.

Ya, I'm baffled anyone thinks Seattle is trading a starting pitcher. Utterly baffled..

[Schmoeman5]

In the next couple weeks there will be a post on Twins Daily regarding the importance of Brock Stewart to the bullpen. His career arc is similar to Justin Topa the morning. I believe he's the main reason the trade happened. No Topa no trade. And I'm not insinuating that he's worth more than Polanco. His value is for 2024. I don't expect much from DeSclafani. But with the prospects and cash considerations I think it's a decent trade. I will say that losing Polanco leaves a hole. But the FO has basically said this was going to be the direction they'd be taking. They were going to lower payroll and trade for need. The only 2 players left that they have that would lower payroll were Polanco and Kepler. 1 of them are now gone. Polanco was probably going to be opening day DH. If you want to say 2B OK. Just flop him and Julien I'm of the opinion that the Twins think they can fill that void from within. We'll see

[Twinsrtheworst]

2 hours ago, DocBauer said:

I don't disagree with your basic premise. And I won't deny that as good as Polanco has been, he's missed some time with injury.

But let's turn this around. Gonzalez is a top prospect for Seattle and a top 100 prospect. So he's not all that different than E Rodriguez in overall rankings, or age for that matter. Would you trade a 5th starter equivalent, E Rodriguez and maybe Alcala, plus $ for Polanco? And I'm asking as a huge fan of Polanco's.

This just feels like the Twins got quantity instead of quality. Gonzalez doesn't help for years. I'd rather they include someone in the 10-20 prospect range to go with Polanco for one of their better young arms, and maybe even toss in a couple $M if Seattle demanded it. 

I just don't see any upside to this deal at all. Not unless something else is still coming.

Comparing Gonzales to Emma?  Really not comparibke at all even in the rankings.  Emma is a concensus top 50 prospect with a higher cieking...So dont co that please..Gonzales is at a best a low 100 type.  Doing Rodriguez a huge disservice there Doc.

[stringer bell]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Is anyone paying attention to the fact Seattle is sending millions to Minnesota before posting?

Yeah, from the original story, it appeared the Twins would actually be paying more in salary for the two major leaguers. Now, it looks like they will pay little or none of DeSclafani's salary and are about $10M on the plus side. So, if the Twins add a $10M hitter, they are getting that player plus Topa, plus DeSclafani plus a legit prospect and a lottery ticket for Polanco. Sure, it all could blow up, but I'm pretty happy with the whole thing.

[pierre75275]

I liked Polanco very much and wish him the best in SeaTac.

I am excited to see how Julien does over a full season.

With the trade of Polanco, I think Farmer and Kepler stay out now. Farmer, at least, to bat for Julien against tough lefties out of the pen, and as a late inning replacement. And to spell lewis and correa.

I think Kep stays bc they don't want to rely on both Larnach and Wallner in the outfield with Buxton. That's a lot of question marks. So I think Kep stays. 

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Yeah, from the original story, it appeared the Twins would actually be paying more in salary for the two major leaguers. Now, it looks like they will pay little or none of DeSclafani's salary and are about $10M on the plus side. So, if the Twins add a $10M hitter, they are getting that player plus Topa, plus DeSclafani plus a legit prospect and a lottery ticket for Polanco. Sure, it all could blow up, but I'm pretty happy with the whole thing.

I'm struggling to figure out who they can sign or trade for, looking at the free agents and bad teams.... Twins need an OF, DH, maybe 1b..... That's bellinger, but they aren't paying that.  But yes, if they reallocate that money, and get a legit player, it's hard not to like the deal.