Could Rhys Hoskins Be the Twins' Splashy Free Agency Signing?

[Cody Schoenmann]

With money presumably coming soon from a new regional broadcasting deal, could this right-handed hitting power bat be the Twins' signature offseason signing?

Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck - USA TODAY Sports

In a recent article published on Twins Daily, writer Peter Labuza laid out how court proceedings involving Diamond Sports Group, a subsidiary of Sinclair Broadcasting and owner of the many regional sports networks better known as Bally Sports, could lead to the Twins receiving a cash infusion. Though the exact details of their new deal (and how much revenue will be brought in) are still unclear, the organization could be set to unlock its payroll freeze and make a late-offseason free agency push. 

Free agent left-handed hitting outfielder/first baseman Cody Bellinger would be the ideal candidate to sign, but his impending contract (estimated to land between $25-30 million AAV for five to seven seasons) will likely still be too rich even for a team with renewed payroll hope. Signing Scott Boras-represented starters like Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery would also make sense for the team, but here, too, the asking prices likely remain prohibitive.

If Twins ownership were to let the front office pursue an expensive free agent, they would likely want that player to land between the $15-20 million AAV range at a maximum. Although this is still on the high side (especially for a mid-market team with an unstable regional broadcasting situation), the commitment would be less of a burden if the player performs poorly or future regional broadcasting deal uncertainties arise.

Defensively limited veteran position players Jorge Soler, J.D. Martinez, and Justin Turner could be acquired for a one- to two-year deal in this price range. Although these targets are enticing for the World Series-hopeful Twins, another position player could provide more long-term upside for a similar price: Rhys Hoskins. 

Hoskins, 30, missed the 2023 MLB season after suffering a torn ACL during spring training. Before that, though, Hoskins was a cog in the formidable Phillies lineup, posting a wRC+ above 120 in five of the six seasons he spent in Philadelphia. His primary strength for the Phillies was hitting for power, evidenced by launching 148 home runs while averaging a .250 Isolated Power (ISO) and .492 Slugging Percentage (SLG) over 2,877 plate appearances with the Phils.

Hoskins began his career with the Phillies as their primary left fielder, in 2017 and 2018. He has since become their full-time first baseman, while sprinkling an occasional start at designated hitter. If the Twins were to sign Hoskins, he would become a platoon partner with Alex Kirilloff at first base, playing the position when the team faces a left-handed starting pitcher. Hoskins's splits in 2022 (his most recent healthy season) indicate becoming part of a platoon would suit him well. Hoskins hit .286/.387/.558 with 42 hits and eight home runs over 174 plate appearances against left-handed pitching in 2022, so entering a part platoon role with Kirilloff at first base would suit him well. 

In the same season, Hoskins hit .233/.313/.430 with 103 hits and 22 home runs over 498 plate appearances against right-handed pitching. Hoskins manufactured adequate numbers against right-handed pitching in a larger sample size, which indicates he could be used as a viable power-hitting designated hitter against same-handed pitchers. Hoskins's ability to produce against pitchers from both sides also suggests he could become the team's full-time first baseman if the oft-injured Kirilliff were sidelined for an extended period in 2024. 

Asking Hoskins (30 years old and coming off a torn ACL) to play either corner outfield position would likely be a stretch. Yet, with Max Kepler, Matt Wallner, Nick Gordon, Willi Castro, and Kirilloff expected to be healthy for Opening Day, the organization should have adequate positional depth to ensure that Hoskins (who produced -8 Outs Above Average in 2022 at first base) wouldn't need to overextend himself defensively. Considering this, Hoskins would effectively replace the 450 plate appearances Donovan Solano manufactured in 2023.

In 2023, the Twins ranked third in MLB with 233 home runs. With the departures of Michael A. Taylor (21 home runs) and Joey Gallo (21 home runs), the team will be without two of their top three home run hitters (Kepler led the team with 24 home runs). Replacing 42 combined home runs would be complicated for any team, but FanGraphs's STEAMER projections anticipate Hoskins will hit 30 home runs this season. The way the roster is constructed, the Twins will continue to hit home runs in 2024, but Hoskins can potentially replace 71 percent of the missing home run production on his own. If Hoskins was signed, there would be reason to expect the Twins to match, if not exceed, last year's home run total.

Since the beginning of the offseason, most pundits have predicted Hoskins would net a one-year contract worth $15-20 million. Although this was the assumption from most, it is late January, and Hoskins has yet to sign. If Hoskins and his agent Boras were asking for a one-year deal, he probably would have signed by now. Hoskins not signing yet indicates that he and Boras are holding out for a team to offer a longer-team contract.

Signing the Cal State Sacramento product would be an advantageous low-risk, high-reward contract for the Twins, but if the team's decision-makers were to need to offer a third or fourth year to acquire the 30-year-old's services, they could reasonably get cold feet.

Hopefully, the broadcast situation will come to a relatively speedy and lucrative conclusion. That would loosen the Twins' budgetary belts, but probably not enough to allow them to sign one of the remaining free agents who expect nine-figure commitments. Perhaps, then, Hoskins is the ideal target.

Should the Twins make a late offseason free agency push if they get money from a regional broadcasting deal? Does Hoskins intrigue you? Should they pursue Soler, Martinez, or Turner? Join the discussion and comment below.

View full article

[CRF]

Can we...please?

[Whitey333]

Yawn, yawn, yawn.  It's a very good article.  Just not going to happen.

[miracleb]

Any new money needs to be spent on pitching.   Any position players needs to be filled internally.  (Internally because of cost...... and internally because we have the talent.)

[umterp23]

We are not signing a FA pitcher with any influx of money.  That has to come via trade.  Relying on injured Miranda, Kiriloff, Buxont all of sudden being fantastic isn't sound strategy.  Hoskins has a longer proven track record than Miranda & Kiriloff, so I'm good with making this move. Offer him 3 year deal for $15MM per and give him an opt out after 2 years.  We make a move to get a Starter via trade and at that point call it a day.  Laughable we list Gordon as OF depth, no way he should be on this roster after he had about 3 months of any success at the MLB level in '22.  Castro has better tools than Gordon and Flash in the pan balked at Pre-Arb money, time to move on.

[Doctor Gast]

If we had the extra $, it'd be intriguing. But I'd still like to see the cheaper version Miranda take off there & we still have Farmer to fall back on. Both would be a much better defensive option.

[Natron]

It feels like most are assuming that whatever comes from a new tv/streaming deal is going to be some kind of magical cure-all for the Twins payroll reduction, but even if Amazon/Diamond/Bally are the destination in the end, they've still got the Twins over a barrel because there are no other money generating alternatives, so it won't be anywhere near what they've paid in the past. Plus, at this point, the PR damage the Twins have caused is already done, so what's the motivation for backing off the payroll reduction now? It feels like the free agency ship has sailed for this offseason. But 2025 with another new tv/streaming contract along with half of the league included plus Wheeler, Burnes, Fried, Bieber, etc. available? Go get 'em.

[Karbo]

How many AB's does steamer predict? Would he be a 30 HR guy as a platoon player? I agree with miracleb that any money should go to improve pitching, unless signing Hoskins allows the team to trade for a starter or even a good reliever or two. The pen seems to me to be the weakest part of this team. Sign even a decent mid tier starter and maybe move Varland into the pen? Even though they seem reluctant to do this it seems like a good move to me.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Sign me up. He would be a great addition to the middle of the order. They haven't really had a power bat like that since Nelson left, so just having a #4 type hitter in the lineup would be really great.

Watch, they sign Hoskins and trade for a pitcher in the next couple of weeks, and then all the teeth ghashing will die down, at least for a spell. 

[JD-TWINS]

His ratio of AB’s shown above tell the story - 498 v. RH pitching & 178 v. LH pitching. The game is skewed to about 25% of pitchers being LH. Not going to sign Hoskins or any FA to platoon at 1B as a RH bat with NO flexibility to play anywhere else. DH is clogged with Buxton & Julien. Hoskins is not a great defender at 1B either, so that doesn’t help.

Solano had enough success last year to pay him $3.5-$4M as insurance because of his low cost. 

Turner at 1B for 40 games & 3B for 25 games to rest Lewis & maybe 20 starts at DH seems like a reasonable move at a similar number.

Would prefer trading Polanco and shifting $$ toward pitching v. part time 1B.

Julien - Farmer - Gordon - Castro - Martin & maybe even Solano can all (Lee/Lewis) be options to cover needs at 2B…….it seems Polanco is not necessary & the $10.5M could be used along with any breakthrough $$ from TV.

[Post-Concussive Blues]

I don’t think the new broadcast deal will produce anywhere near the same revenue as the old one, and I doubt the Twins will be spending significant money on free agents this year. Otherwise, great, sign Hoskins!

[DJL44]

I like adding Hoskins but if they do he's the primary 1B, not a platoon guy. That puts Kirilloff on the trade block. If you just want a platoon 1B, go get Turner.

[chpettit19]

Hoskins would be a great addition to this team. If they have the money they should absolutely be looking to add him. Adding him to the heart of the order would be wonderful. And it's much more realistic that they could afford him than Bellinger or a top of the rotation FA arm. He's probably the most likely impact FA option for the Twins. Hope they're at least keeping in touch with him.

[Riverbrian]

He would be exactly the kind of big bat addition that the team needs. 

Great Power with a lower strikeout rate. He's exactly what we need. 

There will be playing time for all who deserve playing time,

There will be injuries that need cover.

There will be players who struggle, 

If everyone stays healthy... a manager can figure out playing time. A manager with too many good options is a good thing... it's isn't something to avoid.  

If everyone stays healthy AND performs... we will win our division and get home playoff games. The manager will figure out playing time in the process. This is a good thing... it isn't something to avoid.   

Hoskins, Lewis, Julien on the corners

Correa, Polanco, Farmer up the middle 

Buxton, Kepler, Kirilloff, Wallner, Castro in the OF.  

Jeffers, Vazquez behind the plate

Castro can play some IF if needed, Kirilloff can play 1B if needed. Julien can play 1B and 2B, Polanco can play 2B and 3B. 

I'd say Lewis can also play some OF if needed.   

Larnach, Miranda, Martin and Severino with options and on the waiting list in AAA.

We got depth... We don't need more depth... We need a big bat addition that raises the bar above our depth and Hoskins would be exactly that.   

 

[Drtwins]

If Hoskins is added for 15 million a year he would not be brought in as a platoon player. The only way this makes sense is if the Twins move Polanco to help clear up DH at-bats for Hoskins and he can play 1st when others need a rest day at DH. 

[HoskenPowell]

Thinking he'd play DH 65% of the time is a bad idea.....Buxtons gonna be there over 50% of the time if not 95% of the time.     If they sign him he"s the every day 1B.   Then trade Kiroloff and whomever away for pitching of any sort.   A power LH pitcher would be nice.

[HoskenPowell]

I just simply do NOT trust Buxton and Kiroloffs health. Buxton could get a hernia or throw a disc out of his back picking up his cereal spoon in the morning.

[rick kayser]

I still cannot understand the lack of financial foresight by the Twin''s management. They have a marketable team in a weak division. So they decide to freeze and reduce the budget because of a drop in TV money. So instead of building a larger fan base (i.e., a Positive view of the franchise) and the future. If the lack of TV revenue continues, then adjust.  When you have a good product, you take every avenue to promote it. A short-term response is

short-term thinking.

 

[TopGunn#22]

I don't like the idea of signing a guy to what the Twins would view as "Big Money" to be a platoon player.  I've never been that high on Hoskins anyway.  Between Kirilloff, Miranda and Julien there is no need to bring in Hoskins or bring back Solano.  We have youth covering 1B.

What I think SHOULD be done with any financial benefit with a TV deal, would be the willingness to make a trade where the Twins take on a little more salary.  Someone like, but not necessarily like a Luis Castillo, Corbin Burnes or Shane Bieber for example.    

Twins

00

NAME	AGE	LEVEL	P1	P2	AVAILABILITY	YEARS	AFV	SALARY	SURPLUS	LOW	MEDIAN	HIGH
Luis Castillo	31	Majors	SP		Low	5	138.7	116	22.7	18.2	22.7	27.3

Total Value:

22.7

Mariners

00

NAME	AGE	LEVEL	P1	P2	AVAILABILITY	YEARS	AFV	SALARY	SURPLUS	LOW	MEDIAN	HIGH
Jorge Polanco	30	Majors	2B		Low	2	31.9	22.5	9.4	7.6	9.4	11.3
Danny De Andrade	19	Minors	SS			0	0	0	7.1	5.7	7.1	8.5
David Festa	23	Minors	SP			0	0	0	8.7	7	8.7	10.4

Total Value:

25.20

 

Here's an example of a deal for Castillo.  Twins move the $10 million dollar Polanco salary and two good prospects for Castillo.  Castillo is not a one-year rental like Burnes would be so he would be in the Twins rotation for several more years.  The Mariners get some pop at 2B with the switch hitting Polanco but also a couple good prospects.  A pitcher to eventually challenge for a rotation spot and a good 19 year old SS prospect.  The Mariners also cut their salary by about $12-$13 million dollars. The Twins get a top of the rotation SP with an already fixed cost certainty for about 3 more seasons.                                                    

[mnfireman]

It only makes sense if Kepler is traded and Kirilloff moves back to the OF. Moving Polanco doesn't open a spot for Hoskins and the FO has publicly stated they aren't moving players solely for salary relief. This move would significantly weaken the defense though; Wallner and Kirilloff on the corner OF spots and Julien/Polanco and Hoskins on the right side of the infield.

On a side note, I think TD needs to make a Captain Obvious badge of some sorts and award it to posters that only come on here to bring up injuries, use it as that person's profile pic and deduct reputation points. We all know who's been injured, what type(s) of injuries they have had and how many games they have missed.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

To begin the season I like the idea of signing Hoskins,  thinking he would be our best option.  Now, personally I don't think the Twins are interested in any of the big free agents.  Maybe a lower lever reliever, a #4 pitcher they think they can fix or centerfielder if they are questioning how healthy Buxton will be.   Leave the money for next year when we have a better idea of what our needs will be.   

[Fatbat]

Hoskins would be nice but its obvious the FO isn't making deals any time soon.  We may be 45-60 from even having a broadcast/streaming deal. If you’re impatient now, just wait, it’s gonna get slower. 

[hitterscount]

I cannot believe that Hoskin's would sign to be a platoon player. And as far as DH'ing when not in the field, that will be Buxton's role my mid-June, unless he is on the IL. 

Save the money or spend it on extending Lewis and Duran when the time comes. The only FA that makes sense is Bellinger, but his production has been to inconsistent to do more than a 2-year contract. 

[Coach Wheels]

1 hour ago, Drtwins said:

If Hoskins is added for 15 million a year he would not be brought in as a platoon player. The only way this makes sense is if the Twins move Polanco to help clear up DH at-bats for Hoskins and he can play 1st when others need a rest day at DH. 

Totally agree, Hoskins plays every day in some capacity. 500 AB's for $15 million and he makes us better quickly. If it means trading for a pitching upgrade, Kiriloff might have be part of the deal because is a good power talent

[tony&rodney]

Pablo Lopez, Carlos Correa, and arb eligible players all will increase the payroll next season and beyond. The amount of money may be a hindrance to adding a corner infield bat/DH on a multi-year contract.

[baul0010]

2 hours ago, miracleb said:

Any new money needs to be spent on pitching.   Any position players needs to be filled internally.  (Internally because of cost...... and internally because we have the talent.)

What is the new money we are talking about?  I haven't seen anywhere regarding a when, how much, how long, a broadcasting contract could be.

I agree, we lost over 200 innings of very good ERA from 2 starters.  I'd rather fill in first base/DH with what we have currently.  We are going to need 2 pitchers to step up into levels they haven't pitched too, then other pitchers to take their places.  That will be a tall order for internal options only. 

[August J Gloop]

Outside of Philly, Hoskins is a very average hitter. If his power is at all sapped by the injuries, he's basically not roster worthy. Let someone else find out on that one.  

[chpettit19]

23 minutes ago, August J Gloop said:

Outside of Philly, Hoskins is a very average hitter. If his power is at all sapped by the injuries, he's basically not roster worthy. Let someone else find out on that one.  

For what it's worth, in 2022 his expected HRs in Philly was 36 and 33 in MN. Not much of a decline there. And it was an ACL surgery so I don't think we should expect it to effect his power now that he's fully healed.

[Dennesey55347]

As a side note, adding Hoskins would most definitely give us a chance to break our own season strikeout record.

[chpettit19]

33 minutes ago, Dennesey55347 said:

As a side note, adding Hoskins would most definitely give us a chance to break our own season strikeout record.

Rhys Hoskins has a career 23.9% K%. League average is 22.1%. He's actually one of the better sluggers at not striking out. The Twins had a 26.6% K% as a team last year. He'd help their K problem, not hurt.