Was the Tyler Mahle Trade the Worst Trade In Twins History?

[Cody Christie]

Every team makes poor trades, and sometimes, it takes years for a front office to know the total value lost or gained in a transaction. Tyler Mahle’s time is done in Minnesota, and it's a tenure that fans will remember for all the wrong reasons.

Image courtesy of Rhona Wise-USA TODAY Sports

On Dec. 14, Tyler Mahle signed a two-year contract with the Texas Rangers for $22 million. He’ll miss the start of the 2024 season as he completes his rehab from Tommy John surgery. Expectations are for him to be able to return around the All-Star break, which is near the time the Rangers expect Jacob deGrom to return, as well. With the deal, Mahle can prove he is healthy and reach free agency again for his age-31 season.

The Twins traded for Mahle because the club was in contention and needed a frontline starter. Things couldn’t have gone much worse, with injuries impacting his entire Twins tenure. He made three starts before landing on the IL with shoulder inflammation. Mahle returned for one more appearance, but left early. He missed the final four weeks, as Minnesota fell out of contention. The Twins hoped Mahle could return in 2023 and help the rotation. Unfortunately, he was limited to five starts before suffering the elbow injury that led to surgery. Overall, he made nine starts and provided the Twins with 0.6 WAR.

Minnesota traded away Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and Steve Hajjar, whom the Reds subsequently flipped to the Guardians as part of a trade for Will Benson. Steer has played 184 big-league games since the trade and posted a 113 OPS+, while providing the Reds with 3.0 WAR. Encarnacion-Strand began last season at Triple-A before making his debut. In 63 games, he posted a 113 OPS+, with 0.6 WAR. Both players have promising futures and have shown the ability to be successful at the big-league level. Each is under team control for the foreseeable future. The trade will look worse as both players establish themselves as everyday players and accumulate more WAR.

So, what are some of the other bad trades in team history, and where does the Mahle trade rank?

2007
Twins Acquire: Brendan Harris (-0.6 WAR), Jason Pridie (-0.2 WAR), Delmon Young (1.0 WAR)
Rays Acquire: Eddie Morlan (0.0 WAR), Jason Bartlett (10.4 WAR), Matt Garza (8.5 WAR)
Trade Result: -19.4 WAR

Recently, Gregg Masterson wrote about the Young trade and how it continues to haunt the Twins 17 years later. At the time, the Twins wanted a right-handed slugger to hit between Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, so the team was willing to trade multiple young pieces. Bartlett became an All-Star in Tampa, and Garza won ALCS MVP in 2008. Young never developed into the player the Twins hoped he’d be in the middle of the lineup. His OPS+ was only above 100 in one season with the Twins, and his defense was an adventure in right field. The Mahle trade hasn’t reached this level yet, but there is still time.

2010
Twins Acquire: Brett Jacobson (0.0 WAR), Jim Hoey (-0.8 WAR)
Orioles Acquire: JJ Hardy (15.7 WAR), Brendan Harris (0.0 WAR)
Trade Result: -16.5 WAR

The Twins traded Carlos Gomez for Hardy to take over shortstop for 2010, but his time was limited in Minnesota. He suffered multiple injuries and hit .268/.320/.394, with 28 extra-base hits in 101 games. Minnesota dealt Hardy and Harris away for two relievers to make room on the roster for Tsuyoshi Nishioka, who compiled -2.3 WAR with the Twins. While Nishioka struggled, Hardy became an All-Star in Baltimore, winning three Gold Gloves and a Silver Slugger. Jacobson never made the big leagues, and Hoey didn’t make another appearance after leaving the Twins.

1995
Twins Acquire: Kimera Bartee (0.0 WAR), Scott Klingenbeck (-1.6 WAR)
Orioles Acquire: Scott Erickson (13.1 WAR)
Trade Result: -14.7 WAR

Erickson had helped the Twins win the 1991 World Series and finished runner-up for the Cy Young, but he struggled from 1993-95, with an ERA north of 5.00. Minnesota sent Erickson to Baltimore, where he reinvented himself and averaged over 230 innings per season in a four-year stretch. Injuries impacted the end of his career, but the Twins got negative value back in return, including Klingenbeck, who struggled mightily during his time in Minnesota. 

Will the Mahle trade surpass the Delmon Young trade in lost WAR? Would you rank any other trades as the worst in team history? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[tony&rodney]

Christian Encarcion-Strand is the guy to regret for what he will soon become. I wonder what it would take to get him back? His defense is lacking and he strikes out quite a bit, but he is going to absolutely mash in the middle of a lineup.

Worst trade? "Don't look back ..... "

I never cared for Tyler Mahle when he pitched for the Reds. He was, undeniably, a decent pitcher, but the nibbling, the home runs, and his general approach never did it for me. Good for Mahle that he has signed another contract and I was glad that Falvey sat that one out.

[Chachi]

Giving partial credit to whatever we gave up to get Ron Davis.

[Cory Engelhardt]

The process was solid, and he got hurt. They didn't lose any stars, or especially any up the middle or core players. I hope they make more deals like this, and next time hopefully that pitcher stays healthy.

The worse outcome would be to be gun-shy next time a deal is on the table. 

[chpettit19]

I don't have any idea what the WAR numbers are or anything, but my vote would go to the Johan trade. Trading a borderline HOF pitcher for nothing is worse than any of these trades.

[mnfireman]

15 minutes ago, Chachi said:

Giving partial credit to whatever we gave up to get Ron Davis.

That would be Roy Smalley. That trade also brought Greg Gagne to the Twins..

[DJL44]

Nettles for Tiant is the worst one on my list, but that's mainly the release of Tiant that makes it so bad.

[AceWrigley]

December 10, 1969: Graig Nettles traded by the Minnesota Twins with Dean Chance, Bob Miller and Ted Uhlaender to the Cleveland Guardians for Luis Tiant and Stan Williams.

If Rich Reese would not have had his miracle 1969 year hitting .322, would the Twins have made this terrible trade?

[jorgenswest]

I would do a Mahle type trade again given an opportunity this summer.

The Santana trade was bad from the start. They didn’t get anyone that was the headline of the deal. We see those kinds of suggested deals often on this board where several Twins are offered for a single very good player. A bunch of 1-2 WAR players do not replace a 5+ WAR player.

The Capps deal was a terrible trade. He had saves and ERA in his favor but the peripherals behind those suggested a mediocre pitcher.

 

[DJL44]

Brunanksy for Herr 

Lawton for Reed

Hicks for Murphy

Carew for Engle

 

[adorduan]

42 minutes ago, Chachi said:

Giving partial credit to whatever we gave up to get Ron Davis.

I think I'm still traumatized by him. It was like groundhog day. Blown save, rinse, repeat....

[CRF]

I think the Mahle deal is right up there. Top five. Could be worse if Steer, and especially CES, prove to be very good players. 

[mnfireman]

5 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Brunanksy for Herr 

Lawton for Reed

Hicks for Murphy

Carew for Engle

 

The Twins got two very good years of Ken Landreaux as part of the Carew trade, but agree with the rest.

[2wins87]

I don't think it was even the worst trade they made at the deadline that year.

Trading 4 guys for a reliever that had been good for half a season was just a worse process forced by not caring about the bullpen preseason and the costs of doing business at the deadline.  It is more surprising in hindsight; I wouldn't have expected Cano to be more than a mediocre reliever, while I did have high hopes for Steer and CES (I did have somewhat high hopes for Povich at the time too).  But it still just feels so much worse in retrospect giving the Orioles a premier set-up man, under control for 6 years, in exchange for a terrible reliever.

[ashbury]

I'm unwilling to rank trades.  Remember the quote from Tolstoy's lesser known sequel, Anna Karenina: The Baseball Chronicles?

All happy trades are alike; each unhappy trade is unhappy in its own way.

How to compare Tommy Herr, John Ryan Murphy, Paul Harzell, Carlos Gomez, Scott Klingenbeck, Jim Hoey, Matt Capps, Delmon Young, Jorge Lopez, and Tyler Mahle?  Don't.

[sweetmusicviola16]

I always hated the Brunansky for Herr trade. Tommy Herr was not a team player.

[Karbo]

Hindsight is 20/20!

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't have any idea what the WAR numbers are or anything, but my vote would go to the Johan trade. Trading a borderline HOF pitcher for nothing is worse than any of these trades.

Gogo Gomez and Philip Humber netted 0.6 fWAR for the Twins. Johan netted 5.2 fWAR in his first year with the Mets. He signed an extension though… if you count his whole tenure 13.9 fWAR

[Craig Arko]

I don’t know. Does it matter?

[strumdatjag]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Brunanksy for Herr 

Lawton for Reed

Hicks for Murphy

Carew for Engle

 

Bruno for Herr is the worst. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

Here is a question and/or a different way to frame the Mahle trade...

Was trading for Mahle the largest "swing" for a playoff starter the Twins have ever attempted in-season or at the trade deadline?

Yes, he was hurt after he got here. And yes they gave up a couple of major leaguers for him (we can quibble on how good they are, and a lot of that is for the future to play out) but is there any other trade in team history that was AS BIG a swing to add a potential difference maker in season?

I guess that's why I'm ok with it. I can't think of one that is close. Certainly not from the Terry Ryan era. That's why I also am ok with the process here to go after a Tyler Mahle. That shows me that if the team is in contention and needs a difference making piece, then the front office has the ok to make that choice.

To me, that's a positive. Even if the results after the fact didn't work out.

[nicksaviking]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't have any idea what the WAR numbers are or anything, but my vote would go to the Johan trade. Trading a borderline HOF pitcher for nothing is worse than any of these trades.

Yeah, that's the one that came to my mind first.

This one is bad, and could end up being worse, but considering the Twins gave up on Gomez before he ever became useful puts the Santana trade at the top for me.

 

[nicksaviking]

34 minutes ago, strumdatjag said:

Bruno for Herr is the worst. 

My dad didn't even know how to tell me this one happened. My cousin broke the news to me instead and I was crushed and sobbed uncontrollably.

Worst 30th birthday ever.

 

[Brandon]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Brunanksy for Herr 

Lawton for Reed

Hicks for Murphy

Carew for Engle

 

Lawton for Reed wasn’t a bad trade.  What puts it in this category is we traded from a position of need for a position of need but less need and Terry Ryan was unable or unw To do the second trade that was supposed to occur to replace Lawton.

[Brandon]

The all time worst move is still giving up David Ortiz for nothing.  

[Nine of twelve]

There are two ways to evaluate trades.

One, judge the trade based on available knowledge at the time of the trade.

Two, judge the trade based on the entire trade tree. Judge the performance of all involved players for all teams. Include all players involved in all subsequent trades. To be complete, include the performance of players who continued their careers elsewhere after they were released, DFA'd, or non-tendered, and the performance of players they were traded with and for. Trade trees can continue for decades, and it's far too soon to attempt to evaluate the Mahle trade at this point.

 

 

[TwinsDr2021]

How about the Pressly trade? So far the Twins have gotten negative WAR out of it.

[Brandon]

45 minutes ago, Nine of twelve said:

There are two ways to evaluate trades.

One, judge the trade based on available knowledge at the time of the trade.

Two, judge the trade based on the entire trade tree. Judge the performance of all involved players for all teams. Include all players involved in all subsequent trades. To be complete, include the performance of players who continued their careers elsewhere after they were released, DFA'd, or non-tendered, and the performance of players they were traded with and for. Trade trees can continue for decades, and it's far too soon to attempt to evaluate the Mahle trade at this point.

 

 

The book on the Mahle trade has closed on the Twins side.  That is why the trade is being evaluated.  There are no more branches on this side of the deal. The other side of the deal already has more value and likely so much more projected on the way.  Hence the  evaluation which is now legit.  And it will update to be either less bad or even worse than what people think now.  There is no way around it.  This trade turned out bad for the Twins.
 

While at the time of the trade it didn’t look good in that we knew we overpaid for Mahle with the talent we gave up.  We gave up duplicate talent.  Meaning the players we gave up were blocked by other young players.   So the trade looked to be good for the Twins to get a #2 starter for prospects.  
 

My analysis of the trade is it was a bad one but I’m not mad at the front office for going for it.  I hope they do this trade type of trade again.

[LewFordLives]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

Yeah, that's the one that came to my mind first.

This one is bad, and could end up being worse, but considering the Twins gave up on Gomez before he ever became useful puts the Santana trade at the top for me.

 

Plus the Twins missed winning the division by one game that year.  Having Johan in the rotation sure would have been nice, but who dwells on such things.....

[2wins87]

20 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

How about the Pressly trade? So far the Twins have gotten negative WAR out of it.

Among the big 3 valuation systems, only Fangraphs has the Twins' side as negative (-0.6 WAR total).  BBref has it at +0.5 WAR and BP has it at +1.2 WARP.

Pressly only had 1 1/2 years of control remaining, and was extended at around $10 MM AAV, something the Twins would never do and frankly probably shouldn't given their overall budgets, so I probably wouldn't factor any value in his extended years very heavily.

Alcala still has time to provide value and though Celestino was never that good in the majors he was desperately needed at the time.  Getting two MLB caliber players for a closer with one year of control honestly doesn't seem too bad to me as is, and it could still get better in the next two years.