3 Potential Twins Trades for Marlins Starter Jesús Luzardo

[Cody Christie]

Last winter, the Twins worked out a trade with the Marlins that benefited both clubs. Can the two teams agree on another deal that sends a starting pitcher to Minnesota?

Image courtesy of Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Entering the 2023 season, the Twins’ rotation was composed entirely of players acquired via trade. Pablo López, Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Joe Ryan, and Tyler Mahle were the team’s five starters on Opening Day. Bailey Ober was the only homegrown option, but he started the year in St. Paul. Derek Falvey has shown a keen ability in both Cleveland and Minnesota to trade for impact starting pitchers. Minnesota is likely to follow a similar path this winter, especially with the financial uncertainty surrounding the team's television contract.

The Twins and Marlins were in a unique position last winter. Both teams sought to contend in 2023, but there were holes on both rosters. The Twins acquired López and a pair of minor leaguers for Luis Arraez. López developed into the frontline starter the Twins needed, and Arraez took home the NL batting title, while helping Miami to the playoffs. It was a win for both clubs.

The Marlins are in a similar position this winter, needing to upgrade their lineup while having a number of team-controlled starting pitchers. Over the weekend, Jesús Luzardo’s name came up in trade rumors, because the Royals were interested in him before moving on to free-agent alternatives. Ken Rosenthal reported that Miami and Kansas City discussed a trade that included the southpaw being traded for first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino, who is under team control for five more seasons. Luzardo is an intriguing name with some potential upside, meaning the Twins might be able to follow a path similar to last year's approach with López.

Luzardo is a first-year arbitration-eligible player, so he is under team control through the 2026 season. Over the last two seasons, he posted a 3.52 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP and 10.6 K/9 in 279 innings. His four-seam fastball usage went from 29.3% in 2022 to 46% last season, with his sinker usage dropping by over 14 percentage points. The Twins were able to help López add a sweeper after he joined the club, and Luzardo has a solid slider. Could the Twins reshape that pitch, too, to make it even more of a weapon? All trades below include the player's surplus value according to Baseball Trade Values. 

Potential Trade 1
Marlins Receive: Matt Wallner (23.1 surplus value), Brooks Lee (33.5), and a low-level minor leaguer
Twins Receive: Luzardo (63.3)
Wallner and Lee are the last two winners of the team’s Minor League Player of the Year award. Lee finished last season at Triple A and is on the cusp of making his big-league debut. In 125 games, he hit .275/.347/.461, with 39 doubles, 3 triples, and 16 home runs. He is widely considered the team’s second-ranked prospect, behind Walker Jenkins. Wallner, meanwhile, was part of a trio of Twins rookies who posted OPS+ figures north of 125. As with most power hitters, he has some swing-and-miss to his offensive profile, but he can connect for massive home runs. From Miami’s perspective, this trade gives the club two MLB-ready bats and another prospect that can be a wild card to add to their organizational depth.

Potential Trade 2
Marlins Receive: Edouard Julien (34.5), Emmanuel Rodriguez (17.1), and Max Kepler (8.3) 
Twins Receive: Luzardo (63.3)
Woof. This is a lot to give up for Luzardo, but starting pitching comes at a premium. Julien established himself at the big-league level last season, with a 130 OPS+ in 109 games. Minnesota wants him to be part of the team’s future, but the same could have been said for Arraez last season. Rodriguez helped the Cedar Rapids Kernels win the Midwest League Championship last season after posting an .863 OPS with 38 extra-base hits in 99 games. Kepler’s trade value might be at an all-time high, after a tremendous second half in 2023. He only has one year of team control remaining, which takes away some surplus value. In this deal, the Marlins get two bats for now and one who can help the club in the future. 

Potential Trade 3
Marlins Receive: Ryan Jeffers (28.5), Jorge Polanco (9.4), Trevor Larnach (3.6), and Round B Competitive Balance Pick
Twins Receive: Luzardo (63.3)
Luzardo’s value is so high that this deal might not be enough to get it done. The Twins have been shopping veteran players like Christian Vazquez, so it’s interesting to consider the team dealing Jeffers, who has more trade value, instead. Polanco has two years of team control left, and his switch-hitting ability adds value. The Marlins already have Arraez at second base, so they need to make some defensive adjustments to fit both players in the lineup, but they've made a habit of building their rosters out of second basemen. Larnach currently doesn’t have a place with the Twins, and a change of scenery might help him to unlock his full potential. 

Do any of these trades work for both teams? Would you include other players? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[USNMCPO]

I would do Trade #3. Jeffers value is at a surprising high. Polo is at this point maybe a redundancy and Larnach is expendable. I love the job Jeffers did last year but the catching position is volatile at best. Injuries happen there often and the physical toll can be body killing. I kind of doubt Miami would go for just this but who knows?

[Cory Engelhardt]

Make it happen :)

[danielp19653]

I agree option 3 would be my go to, surplus value at catcher is nice but feels like the most over valued. Starting Larnarch all year in the OF with Kepler gone just doesn't give me a lot of confidence. If Wallner has a bit of a sophomore slump and Buxton is unable to go more than 1/4 of the games in the OF a mix of Castro, Wallner (potentially) struggling, and Larnarch is an absolute black hole defensively and offensively for a team supposedly competing. Option 1 just seems short sighted to move Lee as Polo is about to end his Twins time and Lee is ready to debut

[jorgenswest]

I think they will get better offers than those three. Once Yamamoto signs there will be some large market teams that lost out that would give up a lot for Luzardo. It would probably take two of Julien, Lee or Jeffers and a low level minor leaguer but I still don’t think that is enough to headline the deal. Other teams will send a better top player. 

[Matthew Trueblood]

For my money, all of these are too much to give up for Luzardo. I'm not a believer in BTV *at all*. But, I do like him as a target, in general, and this piece does a good job of sketching the framework of a deal that could work. Ultimately, it feels like Luzardo is the bait the Marlins are floating out there to get more teams to call them, at which point they'll push Rogers or Cabrera, but the Twins have the goods to land Luzardo if they want. Certainly, these proposals are the kind the Fish are waiting to hear to get serious about trading him.

[Oldgoat_MN]

Options 2 and 3 look good for the Twins. If Lee is as promising as suggested he would be an awful lot to give up.

[Doctor Gast]

What I've heard that MIA's main focus is catching & SS. IMO  MIA is throwing out a name like Luzardo to see what they can get as far as catcher & SS in return. Jeffers I think makes the most sense as the our main piece,  As discussed before Luzardo would be a great addition to our team.

[SteveLV]

Really like Luzardo.  Like trade #3 the best, which suggests it is not enough.

I would REALLY like #3 if we can also send Kepler to Boston for Teel so we get some catching help on the horizon, too.

Finally, I would like to get Meyer back to Minnesota and perhaps broaden the deal to secure him, too.

Didn't I read somewhere that Luzardo and Lopez are close?  That would be an added bonus when it comes to extending him.

[Ely Sussman]

Marlins correspondent here!

Every Luzardo trade scenario is pretty deflating, although I recognize this figures to be the peak of his value, so it’s unsurprising that Miami is considering it. Trade #1 would be the easiest to stomach. Passing on Lee in the draft was such an unforced error.

[tony&rodney]

It is hard to think what the Marlins are looking for from a team like the Twins. Certainly, Miami can still use a starting catcher and shortstop. I'm in general agreement with Matthew Trueblood: BTV  and the Marlins are fishing.

I wonder how Miami views the lost money this year on Alcantara (TJ surgery with a 2025 return)? Alcantara has three years after 2024 to provide value but at a cost of $55.6 million. Twins interested?

Both Edward Cabrera and Max Meyer have not proven themselves even to the extent of Louie Varland, so they are guys who are interesting possibilities but only at a reasonable cost.

The Twins would have a problem trading Ryan Jeffers but perhaps a wider trade can be considered. Alcantara, Meyer, and Cabrera come to Minnesota, while Jeffers, Farmer, Larnach, and minor league players go south (Woods Richardson, Schobel, and Raya). 

I'm not sure Luzardo is available but Cabrera is going to be discussed. I'm not in on Rogers. I would do trade number three.

[JD-TWINS]

#2 & #3 are intriguing.

As usual, I would try to change something …….#2 to (keep Kepler - insert Vazquez + $6M cash considerations)………Miami gets veteran catcher help at a reduced cost of $7M/year for 2 years. Julien is a real bat for them! Rodriguez is everyday OF by ‘25 or sooner.

#3 is reasonable, but keeping Vazquez as at least a 50% of the Twins innings caught for a couple more years is not optimal. Gotta do things to get better than good pitching though.

.……………….

As a wild edit……throw some of these trade assets, i.e. Rodríguez - maybe Festa - Gordon - Polanco (for them to flip) to the “reworking” Brewers for 2 years of Devin Williams control and our Pen is firmed up for 2 years w/o any guess work…….$6.25M/year. 

The balance of $$ in budget to spend on FA Mike Clevinger for depth guy at $12.5M/year for 2 years. He threw 131 innings and had a 3.77 ERA in ‘23.

LUZARDO would be the preference & hope FO can make it happen.

[chpettit19]

30 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Since the Marlins were looking for a first baseman from KC, why not put a trade package together to include Alex Kirilloff.  We could plug in Julien at FB or possibly pick up Rys Hopkins to fill the FB gap.

I like this idea, but I think it'll be hard to build a package around Kirilloff with his health concerns. I just don't think his value is that high right now. I'd think they'd say no thanks to AK and ask for Julien who'd they'd then slot in at 1B themselves.

[sun]

The Twins should explore making a reasonable trade for Luzardo.

[SteveLV]

Does Julien, ERod, Vasquez, Gordon and Sands get you Luzardo and Alcantara?  Marlins save money, Twins take the huge risk on Alcantara.

Man, it would be so much fun to be the fly on the wall and listen in on trade offers and negotiations!

[Riverbrian]

Luzardo speculation is running amok.

Is it running amok because of the reported Luzardo/Pasquintino rumor that didn't happen? 

The Marlins made the playoffs last year with a young roster. They don't need to sell the top of their roster. 

However, even if they decided to sell Luzardo... why would they dilute the talent level of what you acquire by getting multiple players back. 

If you were the Marlins... Wouldn't you go big and try to get one off the charts offensive player. 

Such as Pasquintino or Jordan Walker or Tristan Casas.

If I was the Marlins... I'm not screwing around here with packages. .    

 

 

[Beast]

You’d have be an insane person to accept Jeffers, Polanco, and Larnach. 

The other two options are certainly intriguing.  Wallner and Lee would be my preferred option over Julien and Rodriguez.

Im not a huge Wallner fan right now.  He had a dynamic start to his career, but then the league caught up with him and he was unplayable in the playoffs.  Capitalizing on the value he has now is a great idea, IMO.

Lee is obviously a nice prospect, but seems to be a bit of a tweener in many categories.  Fine defensively,  but not a high-end defender and likely won’t stick at short.  Good hitter, but not tearing the cover off the ball (.814 career OPS with .459 career slugging in the minors).  With Lewis, Correa, and Julien entrenched in the positions he’s likely to play, and Julien looking like a monster….where do you put him?  He’s not a good enough athlete to play OF.  I also feel like his value is somewhat likely to be the highest it ever will be.

I absolutely love Julien.  Absolute stud at the plate.  130 OPS+.  16 HRs and 16 2B in 400 PAs.  Came up huge in the playoffs (Lewis got all of the attention and accolades, but Julien was a monster).  He should be in the 1-2 hole in the lineup indefinitely.

There’s something special about Rodriguez.  There are some serious tools there.  Power, speed, eye at the plate, arm strength.  He seems to have all of these high ceiling attributes, where Lee is more limited physically.  Rodriguez has elite, top 5 overall prospect upside, whereas it feels like we’ve already seen Lee’s upside.  Scouting reports for Rodriguez are centered around explosiveness, raw power, exit velocity, etc.  Lee’s seem to be centered around contact, polish, instincts, fringe athlete.  Seems to me that Rodriguez has real organization changing star potential and Lee is more of a solid, low floor role player destined for long but unspectacular career.  Given the Twins organizational approach, I can’t give away a guy like Rodriguez.  Oh, and Rodriguez is only 20, where Lee is 22.

 

[PatPfund]

#3 is popular here, because it is kind of a joke. We get a rising (star?) pitcher, and Miami gets a rising catcher, and... two players who might have problems starting for the Twins next year. Larnach might not even make the team, and Polanco plays the same position as Arraez's best (and Jorge looked frankly brutal at third last year).

Teams don't make trades unless they think they are getting a good deal that WILL HELP their team. So adding our team's odds and ends and having Miami just toss in another couple starters isn't going to happen either. The one that seems the most painful is probably the closest to reality.

[MGX]

My preference is keeping Jeffers, Kiriloff, Julien, Lewis, Correa & Wallner to let them develop & play together this season. We can sign a mid-level SP (Montas, Lorenzen or Clevinger) & another arm or two (J Hicks & R Stephenson) in the bullpen to address pitching. 

Even if we traded for Luzardo our starting staff won't be as good as it was in '23. With how good those starters were through the end of June we were still 1 game under .500 because of our offense. Our offense was better from July to the end of the year thanks to the contributions of our younger players & Kepler's great 2nd half. For me this team needs to keep those younger players together & only move Kepler in a deal that is too good to turn down. 

[Brett]

Can we trade for whoever is drafting and developing pitchers for the Marlins? That would be my preference.

[chpettit19]

20 minutes ago, Brett said:

Can we trade for whoever is drafting and developing pitchers for the Marlins? That would be my preference.

Or trading for pitchers for the Marlins. Alcantara debuted with St Louis before being traded to Miami. Luzardo debuted for Oakland before being traded to Miami. Sixto Sanchez came from Philly in the Realmuto trade. AJ Puk debuted for Oakland before being traded to Miami. Pablo Lopez was with Seattle before being traded to Miami and debuting the next season.

[1985Fan]

Would love if a deal is done to get Luzardo. Agree with others that it will require the Twins to give up significant talent. Hope they can craft a deal from middle infield logjam that won’t hurt as much. Don’t do deal #2! Can’t afford to lose Keplers production as I don’t see anyone ready to fill that hole. They at least have Camargo at AAA ready to step in if they trade a catcher. 

[Drtwins]

#1 seems like a lot, #2 seems about right, but it would definitely hurt to lose two starters, and #3 doesn't seem to be enough. 

If MIA is truly looking for a SS or C, they may value Lee more than projections indicate. If you could do #1 and swap out Wallner for Larnach and/or Vazquez, and have SWR or Culpepper be the prospect to add pitching back to the MIA system maybe the Marlins would consider it.

[farmerguychris]

Of the 3 options, the only one I'd be interested in is #3.  No interest in trading Lee from idea #1, both Julius and Rodriguez is too much for me in option 2. 

 

[sweetmusicviola16]

1 hour ago, Beast said:

You’d have be an insane person to accept Jeffers, Polanco, and Larnach. 

The other two options are certainly intriguing.  Wallner and Lee would be my preferred option over Julien and Rodriguez.

Im not a huge Wallner fan right now.  He had a dynamic start to his career, but then the league caught up with him and he was unplayable in the playoffs.  Capitalizing on the value he has now is a great idea, IMO.

Lee is obviously a nice prospect, but seems to be a bit of a tweener in many categories.  Fine defensively,  but not a high-end defender and likely won’t stick at short.  Good hitter, but not tearing the cover off the ball (.814 career OPS with .459 career slugging in the minors).  With Lewis, Correa, and Julien entrenched in the positions he’s likely to play, and Julien looking like a monster….where do you put him?  He’s not a good enough athlete to play OF.  I also feel like his value is somewhat likely to be the highest it ever will be.

I absolutely love Julien.  Absolute stud at the plate.  130 OPS+.  16 HRs and 16 2B in 400 PAs.  Came up huge in the playoffs (Lewis got all of the attention and accolades, but Julien was a monster).  He should be in the 1-2 hole in the lineup indefinitely.

There’s something special about Rodriguez.  There are some serious tools there.  Power, speed, eye at the plate, arm strength.  He seems to have all of these high ceiling attributes, where Lee is more limited physically.  Rodriguez has elite, top 5 overall prospect upside, whereas it feels like we’ve already seen Lee’s upside.  Scouting reports for Rodriguez are centered around explosiveness, raw power, exit velocity, etc.  Lee’s seem to be centered around contact, polish, instincts, fringe athlete.  Seems to me that Rodriguez has real organization changing star potential and Lee is more of a solid, low floor role player destined for long but unspectacular career.  Given the Twins organizational approach, I can’t give away a guy like Rodriguez.  Oh, and Rodriguez is only 20, where Lee is 22.

 

I agree 100% on Rodriguez, he will be great. Think superstar. I would add that if the Marlins were offered Julien and Rodriguez for Luzardo they would be insane for not taking it. I'm not sure if I would trade those guys for anybody, but certainly would not be both for Luzardo. 

The Marlins would roll over laughing at #3. Trade proposal #1 would be the most preferred by me. I like Lee but but I don't see him as being an extra ordinary player and Wallner surely isn't.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

What I've heard that MIA's main focus is catching & SS. IMO  MIA is throwing out a name like Luzardo to see what they can get as far as catcher & SS in return. Jeffers I think makes the most sense as the our main piece,  As discussed before Luzardo would be a great addition to our team.

Offer Farmer and Vasquez and E. Rodriguez.

[Brandon]

The cost from what I am reading here is too high to get Luzardo.  We don’t need to create more holes to replace the ones we have.  Though there are trade packages I would do to acquire him.  Miami is looking for offense.  I would trade Wallner, Polanco, and Festa for Luzardo.  Might as well trade a pitcher to replace the one you’re getting.  I feel like this cost is a little too high but it’s what I would pay.  Or if the Marlins really want a C I would keep Wallner and replace with Carmago and a low level prospect.  Maybe include their 2B prospect they sent us last year.

[1985Fan]

How about Jeffers, Lee, and Severino for Luzaerdo? Marlins get a starting catcher, a middle infielder ready to plug into the lineup, and a ready for MLB first baseman. Or substitute Camargo for Jeffers and they get six years of control on three MLB ready assets. 

[ValleySpringsFan]

If Miami is fixed on getting a SS and a C in return, then the Twins may be out of luck. They don't have talent to spare at those positions. But if the Pasquantino rumor is true, then Julien and Kepler would not be a bad offer. I think Polanco has at least 3 more good years. Twins need to keep him. And Julien's value is at its peak right now.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Or trading for pitchers for the Marlins. Alcantara debuted with St Louis before being traded to Miami. Luzardo debuted for Oakland before being traded to Miami. Sixto Sanchez came from Philly in the Realmuto trade. AJ Puk debuted for Oakland before being traded to Miami. Pablo Lopez was with Seattle before being traded to Miami and debuting the next season.

Exceptionally good point!  There is a very important lesson to be learned in these facts.