Byron Buxton’s Health is the Twins’ Biggest Offseason Key

[Cody Christie]

Minnesota is cutting back on payroll, making it even more critical for the team's star players to perform at a high level. Can they get Byron Buxton back on track to play center field in 2024?

Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Any positive news surrounding Byron Buxton’s health is a step in the right direction. This weekend, Derek Falvey told the Minneapolis Star-Tribune that he's “fully recovered from the surgery” he had earlier in the offseason with “no lingering effects.” He went on to say Buxton “looked good” in workouts with the team’s medical staff at Target Field.

“Rehabilitation is ongoing, and completing that is Buxton’s next step," the story said. "The Twins feel he should be cleared to do some baseball-related activities by the end of the year.” Buxton couldn’t be a full participant at spring training last season, because of lingering knee issues from the previous season. The Twins hope this latest surgery can alleviate enough pain for him to return to center field. 

Minnesota utilized a different plan for Buxton in 2023 by having him begin the year as a full-time DH, with the hope that he’d be able to ease back into the outfield mix. His knee was never healthy enough to play in center field for the Twins, as his only outfield innings came in a Triple-A rehab appearance. Buxton may never again play 500 innings in center field, but getting him back to a part-time defensive role is critical to next season’s roster. 

Last season, Buxton was limited to 85 games, even with the team implementing such an aggressive and costly plan to keep him healthy. In 347 plate appearances, he hit .207/.294/.438 (.731) with 17 doubles and 17 home runs. In previous seasons, Buxton was able to return from injury and produce at a high level at the plate. The 2023 campaign was the first time he posted an OPS+ below 115 in five seasons. Buxton has only played over 100 games in one season since becoming a regular in 2016.

Center field is one of the most significant needs for the Twins this winter, because the team can’t count on Buxton to be regularly available for the outfield. Last winter, they traded for Michael A. Taylor to provide insurance for Buxton. Taylor provided the team with his highest OPS+ since 2017, while being one of the league’s best defensive center fielders. Minnesota could attempt to re-sign Taylor and put him into a similar role, or the team could pursue other free-agent options like Kevin Kiermaier or Harrison Bader. 

Falvey and GM Thad Levine could also turn to internal options to take over the position. Austin Martin has been ranked as one of the team’s top prospects since he was acquired as part of the Jose Berrios trade. Signed as a shortstop, Martin has diversified his defensive profile as he gets closer to the big-league level, including over 200 innings in the outfield last year. Martin missed time last season with an elbow injury, but played well after returning. In 59 Triple-A games, he hit .263/.387/.405 (.791) with 11 doubles, six home runs and 16 steals. The Twins can also use other internal options to patrol center, including Willi Castro and Nick Gordon, but none of these options replicate what Buxton means to the Twins.

Minnesota is a better team with Byron Buxton in the lineup. For his career, the Twins have a .545 winning percentage with Buxton starting and a .459 winning percentage when he is out. Their production is more robust, and their batting order deeper, with their franchise player on the field. Unfortunately, the Twins have played more games (686) without Buxton than with him (670) since he made his debut. 

The AL Central is expected to be one of baseball’s worst divisions again in 2024, with the Twins currently the favorites to win it. Minnesota found a way to win the division last season without Buxton performing at a high level, so there is a way for the team to repeat without him. However, when he's healthy, he has proven to be one of the game’s best players on both sides of the ball.

Questions about Buxton’s health will follow him for the remainder of his career. The goal is to get him back to center field on a more regular basis, and the Twins hope this latest surgery is the one to put him back on track. How many games will Buxton play in center field next season? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[Cory Engelhardt]

Absolutely. It's hard to count on him all the time based on what has happened almost every year of his career. But even him at 90% or 80% is a very good player. 

I'd be open to the idea of him (if healthy) moving to a corner outfield spot in time. But for now, today, he is healthy. And that's a good thing.

Thanks!

[Nashvilletwin]

Finding Gray’s replacement (Paddack is Maeda’s replacement) and Buxton’s health are the two most impactful, game/season changing off season factors for 2024.

Here are a few more reasons Buxton’s health is so critical:

1. In a reduced payroll environment, $/production is key. Getting production out of our 2nd highest paid player is critical.

2. Along those same lines, BB in CF means no additional $’s need be spent to solve that issue. Castro, Gordon and Martin can cover all the games BB cannot play.

3. Having the extra D and bat from BB provides more flexibility re trading Kepler - if desired/need be. An outfield of BB, Kepler and Wallner would be really strong both offensively and defensively.  But if Kepler had to be moved, our backup CF options plus Larnach and even Kiriloff could play LF.

4. Buxton in CF means no more discussion about moving Lewis there (not that is even being considered).

 

[MABB1959]

I think they need to build the team without Buxton even if it means increasing or not cutting payroll

[Karbo]

The news is good, yet I find it hard to get too excited. I'll wait and see how it goes in ST. No more full time DH please!

[Parfigliano]

500 innings in CF would be 55.5 games.  With his history I dont really see him going from less then 1 minor league game in CF last year to 55 MLB games this year.

[tony&rodney]

Perhaps if Byron is fully healthy and has his legs under him, he can rebuild his swing before April to become a productive player. No doubt, the bum legs compromised his stroke at the plate.

[Doctor Gast]

I was overjoyed when Buxton signed the extention. Because Buxton is a difference maker at CF and with the incentives based on games played, he be well worth the $. If he can't play CF IMO he shouldn't play. What I'd like to see is have Buxton play enough games at CF to help win the division & have him 100% in the PS. Then I'd be happy.

It'd be hard to determine how many games he'll play. IMO they took care of the problem last year but he still has a chronic knee problem. IMO it can be controled so he can make a significant impact on this team.

[Reptevia]

Yeah, I’m not falling for this again. Is the winning percentage that dramatic last 2-3 years?  I think they can find someone to throw out there in season if the internal options don’t work out. BB should be considered a bonus but not a real part of plans moving forward. 

[GNess]

Planning certainly involves optimal outcomes (Buxton plays 80-100 games in CF) and less optimal outcomes. I am sure the FO is looking at creating contingencies on the roster if Buxton can't go.

Martin, Castro, a free agent, or trade for a CF - who can function as a 4th OF/Back-Up to a regular like Taylor did last season. Martin seems ready for a role with the Twins. The team did well without BB last season for the most part down the stretch. 

I remain guardedly optimistic that this new surgical procedure will have a positive effect for BB, and that will have a positive impact on the team's performance.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Since we have learned that Buxton's bat doesn't really work if he's the full-time DH, plus it clogs up the offensive side of the lineup in a big way, Buxton in CF is the best and really only option.  I say play him in CF (with reasonable days off) until he can't do that, and then put him on the IL until he recovers enough to do it again.  That is how he will be most valuable to the Twins and likely at his most productive level.  On those days and during those periods of time when he is unavailable, some combination of Castro and Martin can take over CF.  I don't know that I would go so far as to also trade Kepler, but it isn't a crazy idea.  Save the money that would be spent on another outside option for CF and use it for another starting pitcher, whether through trade or free agency.

We also need to get past the notion that his salary is breaking the team.  If he doesn't play a lot, it's $15M, which is a lot to you and me but not the salary of a superstar player.  If he plays a lot and produces a lot, he will be paid like a superstar and the Twins will be happy to do it.  When he isn't playing well (or at all), we get frustrated by the contract, but in retrospect it was a pretty smart play by the front office and probably worth the chance.  As has been said, even 60% Buxton is a pretty good player.  Last year, unfortunately, I don't think we really got that. 

 

[darin617]

You can reuse this story every year until his contract is over or he is forced to retire do to injuries.

[Brett]

A couple of things…

At $15M/year, Buxton only needs to be worth about 2 WAR to be “worth it” financially. If healthy, he should be able to pick that up in ~40 games if he’s roaming the outfield.

With Keirsey not getting selected in the Rule 5 draft, we have some quantity of mitigation plans on the 40 man…Martin, Castro and Gordon are getting the press, but now Keirsey becomes an option as well. If we end up spending big money on a starter, maybe we can forget about spending on someone who can start 100 games in CF just in case Buxton is not up to snuff AND none of the youngsters have any staying power out there. 

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Since we have learned that Buxton's bat doesn't really work if he's the full-time DH, plus it clogs up the offensive side of the lineup in a big way, Buxton in CF is the best and really only option.  I say play him in CF (with reasonable days off) until he can't do that, and then put him on the IL until he recovers enough to do it again.  That is how he will be most valuable to the Twins and likely at his most productive level.  On those days and during those periods of time when he is unavailable, some combination of Castro and Martin can take over CF.  I don't know that I would go so far as to also trade Kepler, but it isn't a crazy idea.  Save the money that would be spent on another outside option for CF and use it for another starting pitcher, whether through trade or free agency.

We also need to get past the notion that his salary is breaking the team.  If he doesn't play a lot, it's $15M, which is a lot to you and me but not the salary of a superstar player.  If he plays a lot and produces a lot, he will be paid like a superstar and the Twins will be happy to do it.  When he isn't playing well (or at all), we get frustrated by the contract, but in retrospect it was a pretty smart play by the front office and probably worth the chance.  As has been said, even 60% Buxton is a pretty good player.  Last year, unfortunately, I don't think we really got that. 

 

His salary has little impact on the team if he hits at all. This year he had a 98 OPS+,  just barely under average with 17 doubles & 17 HR in 86 games. I gotta disagree on the notion that he can’t DH …… he can’t hit if he’s hurt, period.

I keep noting that his tendency is to get hurt as a high end, fragile athlete. No reason to dream about some extra healthy season v. when he was 23 - 24 - 25 - 26!! He’s not averaged 1/2 a season per season over 8 years.

That said, if he plays CF for 40 games I’d be tickled. He then DH’s 80 games, as a healthy hitter, much better results. If he can play those games that’s ALL travel days off PLUS one day off per week to keep him fresh. 75% of the games in the line-up is 35 games better than ‘23, but a healthy hitter is assumed. Buxton as a .235 BA guy accidentally hits 28 HR & has 25 doubles…….a very productive guy who’s ready to go when the playoffs begin.

120 games at the plate, a more realistic bar, in my opinion.

[jrod23]

"Buxton and whether or not he'll be on the field, and where" fatigue hits hard every off-season...and during the season for that matter.  I could only imagine how frustrating it is for him.

Glad to hear he's getting closer to baseball activities.

[DaveW44]

Not sure a healthy Buxton is anything special anymore. Might just be a good field no hit outfielder. 

[ashbury]

He'd better not be key to the FO's offseason planning.  They should find a solution like MAT was in 2023, and then treat any CF contributions from Buxton as gravy.

[FlyingFinn]

3 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Good news regarding Buck's health and the possibility of playing CF next season.  That, and as Brett noted that Keirsey did not get chosen in the rule 5 draft, I say let's roll with what we have.  

I now believe the Twins believe Buxton will be healthy to start the season. Castro will play on the days when Buxton needs a break. Martin will be ready by mid-season and take over if Buxton is done. That is what I think the Twins are thinking and will now get pitching.

Do I think Buxton will stay healthy - No.

[PatPfund]

I don't see Byron as any sort of key to the offseason. We heard all sorts of bilge in ST and then again during his Saints rehab about his health, and I think he made it through 5 actual innings in the field, then we heard more junk about it being "planned" blah, blah, blah, until it was clear he was hurt again. Citing his career stats doesn't matter any more; the Twins last year were better without Buxton. Good enough to win a division and playoff series.

Citing his season stats as just off normal only makes sense if you ignore his splits. He was great in April, then things ran severely downhill to the point that he hit under .200 in June/July combined striking out 57 times in 119 ABs in those two months. He (and Correa) absolutely slaughtered the offense hitting 3 and 4.

To me, the key to next year is Correa's health, and that of Lewis, Miranda,  and Kirilloff. Regardless of "reports" the Twins will have to plan for CF mostly played by someone else. Byron isn't a key, he is now a wild card with a known floor, and huge benefits if the longshot of true health comes in. But don't count on it.

[Beast]

Pinning the success of the team on Buxton being healthy is just lunacy at this point.  Anything you get from him is a bonus.

[rv78]

How many times is Buxton going to be discussed here? Must be a slow day at the office. Sorry but it is really getting old. Rinse and repeat the same articles and here we are again. Why are the writers here so enamored with a part-time player that has done nothing to help this team go to the next level. Even in 2023 he was not a factor in the playoffs and they won 3 games and a series without him. The Twins success does NOT depend on Buxton. It depends on the other 25, 30 or more players who actually play and contribute on a regular basis. Nine years he's put on a major league uniform and we've had a broken Buxton in almost everyone of them. His average stats over those 9 years is a .239 Batting Average, 12 HR's, 33RBI's and 9 Stolen Bases. People here clamor over how he is worth every penny of his $15M contract and the Twins never would have gotten him that cheap had it not been for his injured history. Anyone who tells me a player who has numbers like his average stats, is worth $15M a year, drinks too much Kool-Aid. Please ask him if he'll waive his NO Trade clause in his contract so he becomes another teams problem. Because when you have to have another player to cover for him, that is all he is. A Problem.

[RpR]

If Buxton can field like he did before he was hurt, he is a HUGE positive to the Twins that only a fielder with the skills of Taylor could replace.

If both can/do not play the field next year, a giant hole is the Twins team.

[Fatbat]

I see the biggest problem with winning games in ‘23 was that we played guys that weren’t healthy. Bucks knee hurt and he sucked playing with pain. HE SHOULD HAVE BEEN ON THE DL. If his pain is gone with the last surgery then he has a very good Allstar potential season ahead (until he gets injured). 
Correa played thru pain for months and sucked with RISP. HE SHOULD HAVE BEEN ON THE DL. If his health holds up in ‘24, he has another Allstar  weekend ticket.  
If Ryan would have gotten treatment for his minor injury instead of hiding it, we could have played a healthy albeit not as talented SP.  HE SHOULD HAVE BEEN ON THE DL. If Ryan pitches like he did before he got hurt. He may get a ‘24 Allstar weekend ticket. 
Why they trotted out injured players to lose games instead of giving them time off is ridiculous. Why they stuck with Gallo deep into his slump was ridiculous.  
in ‘24, if we just add some solid role players, we will have plenty of depth. We have enough developing AAA talent to break glass incase of emergency as well. Mgmnt has to learn from the mistakes of ‘23.  
Players get hurt and need time off. If they are hurt. Heal there bodies even if you hurt their ego.  
As fanatics, please stop saying players suck because they get hurt. Injuries happen. Its more of an injury mgmnt issue.

Stay healthy boys, we got a WS to go win. 

[ValleySpringsFan]

OK, the knee surgery was a success and rehab is going great. My worry is less about the knees and more about between the ears. Will Buxton be able to play with confidence? Swing freely at the plate and run freely in the field? Or will he be focused on not getting injured again? Really pulling for the guy to figure it out this season, both for the Twins sake and his own.

[rv78]

1 minute ago, ValleySpringsFan said:

OK, the knee surgery was a success and rehab is going great. My worry is less about the knees and more about between the ears. Will Buxton be able to play with confidence? Swing freely at the plate and run freely in the field? Or will he be focused on not getting injured again? Really pulling for the guy to figure it out this season, both for the Twins sake and his own.

You have to remember who you are talking about. If his bad knee is finally healed there is another knee he'll probably injure. Or pull a hamstring, or tear an achilles, or stub a toe, or break a tooth eating some pudding. He's over-rated and over-hyped to the extreme.

[Squirrel]

It's as if this discussion didn't already happen beginning last Saturday ... 

 

[Johnny Ringo]

Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me ten times and shame on my parents for having me. 

[Fezig]

New Year - Same headline. 

 

[Whitey333]

Well here we go again.  Another off season and another one where we are to be left hoping Buxton will bless us with hus presence.  I just laugh at these people calling Buxton a superstar.  What has he done in 8 years to be credited with that honor?  Riding the injured list much more than playing.  Yet we are supposed to believe our whole season is determined by whether or not he plays?  Oh please.  

[HoskenPowell]

Buxton has gave the fans ZERO reason to trust in him being on the field more than 70-80 games.  I don't think he will give the Twins 60 games in CF.   I'll gladly be proven wrong , but seriously what has he ever done to give anyone confidence in his durability????? From day 1 he has had health issues and that will not get better with age.  Only once in his entire career has his games played total reached three digits. ONE TIME.  His Career high in rbi's is 51!!!  

Counting on him is like counting on the lottery to fix your finances.