An Offseason To-Do List for the Minnesota Twins

[Nick Nelson]

The season is officially over, but for the Minnesota Twins front office, their work is just beginning. Here are 6 key priorities for the Twins as they look to build on their success from 2023.

Image courtesy of Stephen Brashear-USA TODAY Sports

The Twins front office is in a fairly good place heading into the 2023-24 offseason, with a lot of continuity built into their division-winning roster and relatively few blatantly obvious needs. But they do have needs.

Here at Twins Daily, the baseball season never ends. We'll be firing up end-to-end offseason coverage soon, with planned weekly themes in November plus cool bonus content for TD caretakers. Sign up now to make sure you don't miss out! The following top priorities will guide much of the discussion throughout the coming months

Here are the boxes the front office must check this winter:

☐ Find a front-end starter to replace Sonny Gray.

The Twins will extend Gray a qualifying offer. Presumably Gray will turn it down. From there, it becomes very difficult to see the two sides coming back together, though it's not impossible. (See: Carl Pavano, 2011.)

That means the Twins front office is tasked with replacing their 2023 team MVP. Gray is going to leave some big shoes to fill as the co-ace who paired with Pablo López to lead one of the best rotations in franchise history. He ranked third in the majors in ERA, trailing only the two surefire Cy Young winners (Blake Snell and Gerrit Cole). Gray was individually worth more than five wins, according to FanGraphs. He was also the team's best pitcher in 2022.

It's a big void that will be tough to offset. But the good news is that the front office should have considerable money to spend – their current projected 2024 payroll is at least $30 million lower than this year's – and plenty of intriguing trade chips in their overloaded position-player corps.

The latter is especially noteworthy, since this regime has shown a clear knack for trading to acquire frontline starters, with a track record that includes Kenta Maeda, López, and of course Gray.

☐ Gamble on another high-upside starting pitcher.

Even if the Twins are able to once again pull off a high-scale move to acquire a high-end starter, they shouldn't stop there. The planned 2023 rotation depth included not just Gray, but also Maeda and Tyler Mahle, who are free agents as well. Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober and Louie Varland are nice to have on hand, but the front office should be targeting high-upside additions to raise the ceiling on this unit.

The presence of so many proven solid options gives them a stable enough floor to take some risks, which is a fun place to be. The Twins might consider pursuing an opportunistic trade – like, say, for disgruntled Blue Jays starter Alek Manoah – or targeting one of the numerous buy-low candidates in free agency, a group that will include Frankie Montas, Jack Flaherty and James Paxton.

Pete Maki's pitching program instills confidence that the Twins can mine some gold, and suddenly Minnesota is a rather attractive destination for starters.

☐ Make decisions on long-tenured veterans.

Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco: they've been around longer than almost anyone in the clubhouse, and they are both coming off quality seasons (albeit with some ups and downs). The Twins have team options on both for 2024, and it's all but assured those options be exercised. That doesn't mean they will be back.

Both Kepler and Polanco could draw significant trade interest for a team that – as we've discussed – needs to backfill some pitching. Meanwhile, the Twins have young talent pushing these longtime mainstays.

On another front, the Twins must make a decision regarding their other longest-tenured player: Byron Buxton. While trading the hobbled 29-year-old isn't an option, the front office needs to reach a firm stance on what they can expect from Buxton in 2024, and orchestrate their roster-building accordingly. 

☐ Figure out the plan at first base.

Alex Kirilloff is sadly headlong down the same path as Buxton – too frequently injured to be relied upon from a planning standpoint. His upcoming shoulder labrum surgery leaves the future of first base in a state of limbo.

One plan would be to go out and target a new player who could potentially take over as full-time first baseman if Kirilloff can't go. Another would be to think creatively about internal options. For example, top prospect Brooks Lee looks ready to go and currently has no clear path to the big-league roster, with a crowded infield picture. But if first base is open...

☐ Re-evaluate the hitting program.

To their credit, David Popkins and the hitters pulled things together in the second half. Buoyed by the immediate success of rookies like Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien and Matt Wallner, Minnesota's offense was among the league's most potent after the break Still, their whiff-heavy profile continued to make them an especially boom-or-bust unit, and ultimately led to their exit from the playoffs. After setting a new MLB strikeout record as an offense, Minnesota struck out 28 times and scored three total runs in Games 3 and 4 against Houston.

It doesn't sound like the Twins are inclined to fully disassociate from this offensive identity – "I would rather have a guy have a great at-bat, go deep into a count and possibly strikeout, but give us a chance to actually give us a baserunner or actually look for a ball in the middle of the zone and pulverize it," said Derek Falvey – but they need to find some balance.

Whether that means shaking up the roster a bit, targeting players who specialize in hitting for contact, or making alterations to their training and instruction programs (though it sounds like the main coaches will be back), there are several ways the Twins could approach this.

☐ Extend at least one young building block.

The future is here. This is a great moment to lock down some stability, cost assurance, and long-term control. The three rookies mentioned above are all candidates for extensions that will provide them with financial security and the Twins with a bit of extended control. (I favored trying to opportunistically strike a deal like this with Lewis last spring, but alas, that ship sailed.)

The Twins could also consider extending one of their younger pitchers, like Ryan, Ober or Jhoan Duran. Another option would be to take the Rays approach and strike a long-term contract with a top prospect who's yet to debut, such as Lee.

The bottom line is that, with relatively few major outside needs to address this offseason, the Twins can look inward and aim to take care of business that sets up their proven internal core for longevity and success.

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[jorgenswest]

I wonder if clarity in a TV contract needs to be high on the to do list.

[CRF]

Take whatever Gray is possibly/probably going to turn down, add a little more to that total, and get Blake Snell in a Twins uni. Imagine him and Lopez at the top of the pitching staff!

[Harrison Greeley III]

It seems like a foregone conclusion Sonny Gray will reject the qualifying offer. But the set of circumstances with him make it a bit more complicated:

- 34 years old

- 4 IL stints in 2022 and 3 in 2021

- Coming off a career year

- Publicly acknowledged he was considering retirement next year in July

- Will cost a draft pick

This has a lot of ingredients of a '(Free Agent X) is still out there unsigned' storyline in February. I wouldn't bet on it, but it seems like the chance of him accepting the 1yr/$20m qualifying offer is more non-zero than currently perceived. 

[Trov]

I agree looking to add a top end starter is always a good idea.  There are a couple out there but Twins rarely go after top FA starters because of the cost and length.  Normally those deals do not work out well for the team that signs them.  If they can get Gray back on a 3 year deal that would be nice.  In terms of Montas I would be willing to take a prove it deal for him as a depth piece but he is not a top end guy, just a depth guy.  He has really only pitched 1 full season in his whole career. 

Paxton is cooked and also has been on injury list a lot in recent years.  He strikes me as the type of guy the FO has gone after for depth that just never pans out.  He had a good run from age 27 to 30 seasons, but since he has not been good.  If the team thinks they can get him to learn to pitch as an older lefty he may be worth a spring training contract but I would not want to give him a MLB deal at this point. 

Jack Flaherty does not strike me as a guy with much upside.  He is still young and could figure something out, but overall he had 1 decent year in 2019, and since has been injury prone with poor k/bb ratio and high FIP.  Again he is a flier that we would hope can unlock something, but his recent track record is not good.

Alek Manoah would be an interesting option.  Not sure what Jays would be asking for him, as he still has 3 years of team control, had 2 good years, then last year everything fell apart.  His hard hit rate skyrocketed last year, if the Twins think they can get him back to his first 2 years, he would be a good option.  However, Jays would be selling low on him, and unless they think they cannot regain some of that I doubt they give up on him cheap. The Jays have several SP on contract and their top prospect is a SP so they may be more willing to deal.  I would kick the tires on a deal, but be warry of the cost.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Really nice article which explains the most pressing offseason needs as they exist today. I look forward to the forthcoming offseason detailed TD articles and comments about each of these pressing needs. Pros and cons. Lots of variables. Interesting stuff. Thanks Nick. 

[terrydactyls]

The quote from Falvey defending the "swing for the fences" mentality disturbs me.  Going deep in the count - good idea.  But with two strikes, looking for a pitch down the middle to "pulverize" is assinine.  The hitter should be protecting the plate and trying to put the ball in play.  This past season, roughly half the Twins' outs were via strikeout.  That needs to be addressed.

[roger]

Because of Gray's prior comments about retirement, I don't see the probability of his accepting a QO as zero.  I know I am amongst the minority in that opinion, but!

Also gotta wonder whether the Twins are as high on Wallner as many here.  I know he didn't hit all that well at the end of the season.  Did he have any hits in the playoffs?  Was also surprised he wasn't the pinch hitter late in the last game versus Houston as he did go into left field after Buxton pinch hit.  So I don't see the Twins as loaded with corner outfielders as both Wallner and Larnach have questions.

With that said, agree with all the topics you list for the Twins.  What's encouraging is that many of them need to be addressed during the first week or two following the end of the World Series.  

[Major League Ready]

The first thing they need to figure out is their TV revenue and ultimately their budget.  I would like to see them sign Jordan Montgomery.  This is possible with a budget in the low to mid 130s which should be feasible.  I just don’t trust Blake Snell.  He has been too inconsistent for me and someone is going to pay his based on last year.  he mid 130s budget assumes Polanco is gone and Farmer remains and we sign MAT or  Harrison Bader.  

Brooks Lee had a wRC+ of 78 at AAA.  It also took him awhile to put up good (not elite) numbers at AA.  He is not a solution for any position yet.  Therefore, having him switch position, especially to 1B which makes no sense long term seems like a really bad idea.

Add to the list figuring out how long Kirilloff will be out.  According to what I have read, they won’t have a good idea until the procedure is done.  That information obviously plays into how they approach 1B.  If he is expected back in June, they likely give Miranda a shot or audition Severino at 1B.
 

[DJL44]

Extend Jhoan Duran should be on this offseason checklist.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

12 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

The first thing they need to figure out is their TV revenue and ultimately their budget.  I would like to see them sign Jordan Montgomery.  This is feasible with a budget in the low to mid 130s which should be feasible.  I just don’t trust Blake Snell.  He has been too inconsistent for me and someone is going to pay his based on last year.  he mid 130s budget assumes Polanco is gone and Farmer remains and we sign MAT or  Harrison Bader.  

Brooks Lee had a wRC+ of 78 at AAA.  It also took him awhile to put up good (not elite) numbers at AA.  He is not a solution for any position yet.  Therefore, having him switch position, especially to 1B which makes no sense long term seems like a really bad idea.

Add to the list figuring out how long Kirilloff will be out.  According to what I have read, they won’t have a good idea until the procedure is done.  That information obviously plays into how they approach 1B.  If he is expected back in June, they likely give Miranda a shot or audition Severino at 1B.
 

We have heard for years that low revenues from televising games has restricted the Twins ability to sign high price free agents. Maybe this is finally the year the Twins negotiate a smart deal for themselves. 

[saviking]

Great analysis.. only comment is you left Paddack out of the future starters list.

Crazy thought. What if they move Buxton to first base and rotate with Krilloff. You then have a lefty and a righty plus Krilloff can play some outfield as well. 

[BsuNemo]

45 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

The quote from Falvey defending the "swing for the fences" mentality disturbs me.  Going deep in the count - good idea.  But with two strikes, looking for a pitch down the middle to "pulverize" is assinine.  The hitter should be protecting the plate and trying to put the ball in play.  This past season, roughly half the Twins' outs were via strikeout.  That needs to be addressed.

I thought this exactly - we don't get "more baserunners" by trying to "pulverize the ball" with two strikes.  They always come across as knowing better but sometimes they make adjustments without admitting they were wrong - ie pulling starters early in 2022 and killing the BP; coming out in the offseason before 2023 and saying they would still pull starters "if needed" then they decided they didn't "need" to pull them as much any more. This was their way of going, "our experiment didn't work but we won't admit it" - hopefully this happens with the hitting too.

[Vanimal46]

I’m surprised not to read anything about adding another bat. This team needs at least 1, I would argue 2, middle of the order bats. And for me, acquiring those bats is a higher priority than throwing money at a Sonny Gray replacement. 

[Woof Bronzer]

39 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

  But with two strikes, looking for a pitch down the middle to "pulverize" is assinine.  

Little leaguers are taught, with 2 strikes, to choke up, go the other way, protect the plate, etc.  We are at a point in the sport where little league teams have better fundamentals and a better overall understanding of baseball than certain professional teams.

[Woof Bronzer]

6 minutes ago, BsuNemo said:

I thought this exactly - we don't get "more baserunners" by trying to "pulverize the ball" with two strikes.  They always come across as knowing better but sometimes they make adjustments without admitting they were wrong - ie pulling starters early in 2022 and killing the BP; coming out in the offseason before 2023 and saying they would still pull starters "if needed" then they decided they didn't "need" to pull them as much any more. This was their way of going, "our experiment didn't work but we won't admit it" - hopefully this happens with the hitting too.

Good point.  I guess I'd rather they make adjustments while refusing to acknowledge past mistakes, than refusing to make adjustments altogether.  We can only hope.  

[Major League Ready]

21 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

We have heard for years that low revenues from televising games has restricted the Twins ability to sign high price free agents. Maybe this is finally the year the Twins negotiate a smart deal for themselves. 

That's what be great.  I think it might take a couple years to unfold.  It probably won't be a single source producing nearly all of the revenue and the new distribution channels are likely to take a couple years to develop.

[JD-TWINS]

Q - Veteran decisions:

This is a BIG deal! Not only a bit of potential financial relief but a much bigger deal from a clubhouse perspective. Does the Team re-sign or “execute option” & possibly work a trade?

With Polanco’s health issues, & our infield depth coming up, I straight up let him walk & thank him for his service by letting him be a FA……….other option would be to sign & couple him with someone in a trade for an NL prospect. Don’t need him in the AL.

For the $10.5M & with his 2nd half resurgence, I think we need to sign Max for 1 more year. 

Buxton - IMO, the PLAN has to be that he doesn’t exist. We need real CF options and he needs to be outside of those options (Castro - Gordon - Martin……..all probably comparable or better offensive stats with Taylor’s ‘23 output) & sufficient defensively. If CF & Catcher are the only sub-standard offensive spots we have we’ll be OK!

 

Q -Top end starter adds/re-sign Gray:

Been behind making Sonny an offer for 2-3 years but frankly, it’s mostly sentimental. His upside doesn’t offset the potential downside. We got burned with Mahle - Buxton is going to linger - don’t need a 34 year old pitcher with high injury risk/high $$$! Make the QO & take the pick and consider his tenure here a real plus……….that said, Festa or somebody is going to come out of our organization by ‘25. We have 5 starters now - we need affordable starter depth - that’s spelled KENTA!

Q - Extensions:

I’d try to extend Ryan…….if we could extend Durán, it makes real sense, before he is a national star……..he’s close to that now. His two innings of flawless relief in Game 4 stamped him as the most dominant young reliever in the game.

Q - Fist base option:

Kirilloff!!….130 games. If Solano is still able to hit, he’s the obvious 2B for all games not played by Kirilloff. He’s probably released or traded by the deadline if he’s not in that .265BA plus range.

IF Buxton can’t run but can hit, he needs to get proficient at 1B throughout the year……….Spring Training - special assignment during season “coming off IL” - gotta be able to play there by end of August…….need options with him other than DH.

 

[Otaknam]

Hate the strikeout or bust approach of theFO and Rocco! Hopefully the hitting coaches can get some of these guys to do something besides swing from their heels and get on base. Striking out Almost half the time, like they did against Houston, is not the path to success.

[DJL44]

26 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Little leaguers are taught, with 2 strikes, to choke up, go the other way, protect the plate, etc.  We are at a point in the sport where little league teams have better fundamentals and a better overall understanding of baseball than certain professional teams.

They're taught that because defense is terrible in little league and just putting the ball in play leads to a high batting average. Little league strategies don't work in the major leagues. You have to be able to hit the ball hard or you'll end up hitting below .200.

[Minny505]

1 hour ago, terrydactyls said:

This past season, roughly half the Twins' outs were via strikeout.  That needs to be addressed.

Is there a place to find a rate breakdown of how outs are made? I'd find this to be fun data to have access to.

[Brandon]

1B is an easy internal fix with many candidates.  If Lee can show he can handle 2B or if Polanco stays there then Julian can slide over.  If Miranda is healed from his shoulder issues then he could have a go.  Or Polanco could give 1B a try and we still have Severino too.  Lots of internal options, I’m not worried about 1B at all

Grey is a top end starter and likes it here, so I do hope we find a way to keep him here.  Luckily we do have a solid rotation already and we do have multiple avenues to add here.  Getting a good #2 starter and a solid depth starter like a # 7 starter is all that is needed for now in the rotation.  
In the bullpen I honestly would like to see Varland there but I’m fine with giving him a shot in the rotation.  Depending on team budget I would be fine resigning Pagán (such a nice turnaround story). Or just use Varland in his place.  
 

The OF is where things get interesting. CF?  Kepler? Wallner or Larnarch or Gordon or ?  Here I can see keeping Kepler for stability CF is Castro or Buxton or Gordon.  Due to budget, I don’t see the Twins bringing Taylor back.  I think they would like to on a 2 year contract.  Maybe some of that 2B logjam can play LF?  

[DJL44]

1 minute ago, Brandon said:

1B is an easy internal fix with many candidates. If Miranda is healed from his shoulder issues then he could have a go.  Or Polanco could give 1B a try and we still have Severino too.  Lots of internal options, I’m not worried about 1B at all

I'm a little worried that both Kirilloff and Miranda are coming off shoulder injuries. Both could end up starting the season in AAA. Polanco might be the answer at 1B to start the season and his bat is not impressive at 1B.

[Mike Sixel]

Wallner didn't even play one third of the games in LF, and put up 1.5fwar as a left fielder. Multiply that by three and he's the second best LF in the game. Assuming he's not at good still puts him in the top ten . I doubt it's the FO that isn't understanding his value. 

Top decision is replacing Gray and what to do in CF. Everything else is gravy. 

[arby58]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Extend Jhoan Duran should be on this offseason checklist.

It's in there - Extend at least one young building block.

[Minny505]

27 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

With Polanco’s health issues, & our infield depth coming up, I straight up let him walk & thank him for his service by letting him be a FA……….other option would be to sign & couple him with someone in a trade for an NL prospect. Don’t need him in the AL.

I could not disagree more with letting him walk. If he were to be a FA, he would be far & away the top middle infielder on the market and a Top 15 FA in general. He would almost certainly get something like 3/45, probably more.

The team would be foolish to not pick up the option, even if the plan is to trade him. I would estimate he has roughly the same trade value that Sonny Gray had two years ago, due to slightly less value as a player on a more team-friendly contract. Sonny Gray netted the Reds a team's 5-10 ranked prospect. 

I'd still prefer him back, but a trade for a team's Top 10 prospect makes sense with Kyle Farmer as a RHH IF platoon player (who was better than Solano against LHP in 2023 and for their respective careers). 

[arby58]

35 minutes ago, Otaknam said:

Hate the strikeout or bust approach of theFO and Rocco! Hopefully the hitting coaches can get some of these guys to do something besides swing from their heels and get on base. Striking out Almost half the time, like they did against Houston, is not the path to success.

I know people point to the Houston 'professional' approach to hitting, and they were among the MLB leaders in fewest strikeouts and most runs scored. in the regular season Still, drawing conclusions about the Twins offense from that four game series is definitely an issue of small sample size.

In two games so far against Texas, Houston was shut out in one game (and has scored four total runs in the two games combined), and last night struck out 10 times. Good pitching happens - particularly in the play-offs. For all the lamenting about strike outs, the Twins were 10th in MLB in runs scored, which isn't bad.

[weitz41]

It should be an interesting offseason.

I'm guessing the FO will QO Gray and come up short on a 2-3 year contract offer. I expect both of Kepler's and Polanco's option will be picked up, but one will be traded before spring training. I'd keep Polanco over Kepler. Maybe they can swing a trade (and extend) for Pete Alonso to clear up the 1B questions. Move Kirilloff to left field. I don't expect the FO to go after any high-end FA pitching. I could see a 1-year deal for one of the bounce back pitchers mentioned in the article and back fill the BP openings from the minors.

[Brandon]

24 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I'm a little worried that both Kirilloff and Miranda are coming off shoulder injuries. Both could end up starting the season in AAA. Polanco might be the answer at 1B to start the season and his bat is not impressive at 1B.

Polanco’s bat is slightly better than Killeroff.  Polanco is a 25 HR .800 OPS bat.  That is fine for first base.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

I am not convinced Gray will walk.  He had two of his best seasons in Minnesota and the Twins will be playoff contenders for the next few years.  There is incentive on both sides to get a deal done.   Market dollars, two years plus an option or two with easily attainable numbers to kick those options in should do it.

There is no rush to extend the younger guys.  Buy out their last 2 yeas of arbitration and a year or two of FA.  Use the Tampa Bay approach.

Polanco and Kepler are easy decisions.  Both will be back next year.  I can't see any argument to not bring them back.  Effective on offense and defense, respected clubhouse guys, tenured Twins.  No-brainers.

The bigger push should be a permanent placement at 1B.  Pete Alonso makes the most sense, but there are others that might be available.  If Kiriloff comes back healthy enough to play, he could easily slide into Kepler's OF spot in a year or two.