An Offseason To-Do List for the Minnesota Twins

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Fatbat said:

Exactly zero of those 6 will be traded. Add in Duran, Paddock, Erod and a few more that are off limits. The F.O. is building from within and making a big trade about once every 10 months. The next trade will involve getting a top SP. 

Really. I mean I like all of those players but if the team can be improved a trade can happen with some of those guys (Lee, Julien, or Wallner). I'm not expecting one of these players to be traded but it would not be a surprise.

[terrydactyls]

9 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

But you added the two strikes part. He said nothing remotely close to swing for the fences with two strikes. 

It would be interesting to dive a little deeper with him on this.  What does he define as a good at bat?  What do you want to see with two strikes specifically?  Until someone gets him on record with specifics like that don't put words in their mouths.  If they have said something like that I'd be happy to adjust but I'd be willing to bet his answers to those questions would be pretty satisfactory to most of us.

He also didn't say that he's cool with striking out half the time.  My read is that they have correctly assessed that the strikeout is the wrong metric to manage to. 

How many strikeouts this year did you mutter to yourself "what a horrible at bat!"  For me, a lot.  What matters here is the bad at bat, not the strikeout. 

He did say he was okay with strikeouts as long as they try to pulverize the ball.  That certainly implies that this approach is acceptable with two strikes.

[glunn]

After a successful season the Twins should be in a good position for a more lucrative TV deal. I wonder why the Twins don't set up their own network along the lines of the Yankees' YES network.

My to-do list would focus on finding a way to keep Gray for at least 1 year. Maybe year 1 at $30 million and a player option for year 2 at $20 million. This could be sweetened by some incentive provision if necessary to close the deal.

[Fezig]

20 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

The quote from Falvey defending the "swing for the fences" mentality disturbs me.  Going deep in the count - good idea.  But with two strikes, looking for a pitch down the middle to "pulverize" is assinine.  The hitter should be protecting the plate and trying to put the ball in play.  This past season, roughly half the Twins' outs were via strikeout.  That needs to be addressed.

I'm not exactly sure how striking out gives the team a chance. Does Falvey anticipate the catcher dropping the third strike and throwing the ball into right field? The worst team approach ever.

[Doctor Wu]

17 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

 

Farmer - Polanco - Castro - Gordon - Julien - Lee………all capable of playing 2B.

Farmer - Castro - Lee……….all capable of playing SS

Polanco - Farmer - Castro……….all capable of playing 3B

There’s a strong possibility that Julien plays every day at 2B v. RH pitching.

Polanco played 104 games in ‘22 & hit .235 - he played 80 games this year & hit .255. He’s a career .270 hitter. It seems other clubs would have access to the information that shows a distinct decline in output & availability. If I’m a GM & discussing Polanco with the Twins it’s also pretty easy to see the clogged roster spots in the infield…….seems to be a clear bargaining chip.

I’m taking the less cost player with best defense as my utility guy in the infield - guy v. LH pitching at 2B. Farmer.

Castro is going to be on the roster and available at all 3 spots as well.

We can sign & trade Polanco, as I stated, with the probable caveat that another player will need to be included to get reasonable return.

We could also not take any financial risk and do him a favor and let him be a FA.

Lots of moving pieces in the infield, and don't forget "old man" Correa at shortstop. My biggest concern, looking ahead, maybe not to start 2024, but certainly within a year or so, is where are you going to play Brooks Lee? With Correa at shortstop and presumably Lewis at third base, where does Lee play, especially if you also have guys like Julien and Kiriloff (if healthy) playing, not to mention Polanco if he stays. And then there are the backups who can start like Farmer, and Castro, and even Solano, all of whom were productive this past year. Just too many bodies, so someone (or multiple players) will have to be sent elsewhere. Honestly, it's a logjam, but I don't have any great suggestion. What we do with a top prospect like Brooks Lee? As others have suggested, it would be beneficial to his development if he knows where he is going to be playing this coming year. 

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Doctor Wu said:

Lots of moving pieces in the infield, and don't forget "old man" Correa at shortstop. My biggest concern, looking ahead, maybe not to start 2024, but certainly within a year or so, is where are you going to play Brooks Lee? With Correa at shortstop and presumably Lewis at third base, where does Lee play, especially if you also have guys like Julien and Kiriloff (if healthy) playing, not to mention Polanco if he stays. And then there are the backups who can start like Farmer, and Castro, and even Solano, all of whom were productive this past year. Just too many bodies, so someone (or multiple players) will have to be sent elsewhere. Honestly, it's a logjam, but I don't have any great suggestion. What we do with a top prospect like Brooks Lee? As others have suggested, it would be beneficial to his development if he knows where he is going to be playing this coming year. 

We have already seen a blueprint with Arraez.  The team felt they had options to replace Arraez and they traded him.  If Lee proves to be capable, they will make a trade or move someone to the OF.  With the DH as well as playing match-ups, they can also rotate a day off in the filed between the IFers and of course there are always injuries.  We might see Lee and Lewis play multiple IF positions in the future.

[JD-TWINS]

15 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

no idea why you'd want Wallner to change anything, unless you want him worth 5 fWAR somehow......a SO is better than a weak grounder with men on base and less than two outs....by far.

For 140 years players tried to hit a ball to the right side on the ground to advance a runner from 2B to 3B with less than two outs. With a guy on first (particularly with new rules) starting a runner with no outs and trying to advance a guy into scoring position with a ground ball is an aggressive play to try & get runs.

No matter how much I like or you like Wallner, rationalizing strikeouts doesn’t make sense to me.

I know CC hit into an infinite number of double plays in ‘23 but he also lead the team in RBI - runners don’t score or move on a K.

If Wallner hit 6 less homers over a season and cut his K rate by 6-8% my assumption is that’s a good thing.

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

Lots of moving pieces in the infield, and don't forget "old man" Correa at shortstop. My biggest concern, looking ahead, maybe not to start 2024, but certainly within a year or so, is where are you going to play Brooks Lee? With Correa at shortstop and presumably Lewis at third base, where does Lee play, especially if you also have guys like Julien and Kiriloff (if healthy) playing, not to mention Polanco if he stays. And then there are the backups who can start like Farmer, and Castro, and even Solano, all of whom were productive this past year. Just too many bodies, so someone (or multiple players) will have to be sent elsewhere. Honestly, it's a logjam, but I don't have any great suggestion. What we do with a top prospect like Brooks Lee? As others have suggested, it would be beneficial to his development if he knows where he is going to be playing this coming year. 

Didn’t forget CC - my comments were about guys in the “logjam” of an infield that could be traded or not started. He’s a fixture and there’s no reason for conjecture at SS, other than depth.

Brooks Lee is going to start at 2B at some point.

Kirilloff doesn’t enter the conversation since he’s left handed and not going to play anywhere but 1B in infield.

The Lee v. Julien issue is the elephant in the room. To get down to that, Polanco needs to be out of the picture, IMO. Therefore, moving Jorge from the picture via FA or extend & trade is what I see as our path forward.

[Woof Bronzer]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

For 140 years players tried to hit a ball to the right side on the ground to advance a runner from 2B to 3B with less than two outs. With a guy on first (particularly with new rules) starting a runner with no outs and trying to advance a guy into scoring position with a ground ball is an aggressive play to try & get runs.

No matter how much I like or you like Wallner, rationalizing strikeouts doesn’t make sense to me.

The rationalizing strikeouts thing is so odd, and it's done in bad faith.  The poster was saying a K is better than grounding into a double play, but obviously players don't choose to hit into a double play when they swing the bat.  Putting the ball in play will result in getting on base 30% of the time.  If we care about analytics and numbers and data there is no rationalizing for favoring strikeouts to putting the ball in play.  The Twins had 10x the outs by strikeout as by double play.   

If we're doing the silly bad faith rationalizing I'll say that hitting a HR is always beneficial to a K....by far.  Can't hit an HR if you strikeout!  

[Mike Sixel]

8 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

The rationalizing strikeouts thing is so odd, and it's done in bad faith.  The poster was saying a K is better than grounding into a double play, but obviously players don't choose to hit into a double play when they swing the bat.  Putting the ball in play will result in getting on base 30% of the time.  If we care about analytics and numbers and data there is no rationalizing for favoring strikeouts to putting the ball in play.  The Twins had 10x the outs by strikeout as by double play.   

If we're doing the silly bad faith rationalizing I'll say that hitting a HR is always beneficial to a K....by far.  Can't hit an HR if you strikeout!  

Players don't try to strike out either. I was merely giving an example that strikeouts are not always the worst outcome, nothing more or less. But assuming others are acting in bad faith is cool too.

[Fatbat]

On 10/17/2023 at 9:16 PM, tony&rodney said:

Really. I mean I like all of those players but if the team can be improved a trade can happen with some of those guys (Lee, Julien, or Wallner). I'm not expecting one of these players to be traded but it would not be a surprise.

I would be shocked if a young core player or top prospect is traded. An aging player or say Larnach type or any given prospect out if the too 15. 

[tony&rodney]

9 hours ago, Fatbat said:

I would be shocked if a young core player or top prospect is traded. An aging player or say Larnach type or any given prospect out if the too 15. 

Is it fair to say that many were shocked and a few quite angry when the Twins traded Luis Arraez? 

The overriding question is how do the Twins improve their team. Trades have been a preferred path compared to the free agent market.

[Fatbat]

31 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Is it fair to say that many were shocked and a few quite angry when the Twins traded Luis Arraez? 

The overriding question is how do the Twins improve their team. Trades have been a preferred path compared to the free agent market.

1. No failed trades like Mahle’s.  
2. Be patient with young talent. 
3. Don’t sign or trade for guys in the downslope of their career. 

[Riverbrian]

On 10/17/2023 at 1:27 PM, JD-TWINS said:

 

Farmer - Polanco - Castro - Gordon - Julien - Lee………all capable of playing 2B.

Farmer - Castro - Lee……….all capable of playing SS

Polanco - Farmer - Castro……….all capable of playing 3B

There’s a strong possibility that Julien plays every day at 2B v. RH pitching.

Polanco played 104 games in ‘22 & hit .235 - he played 80 games this year & hit .255. He’s a career .270 hitter. It seems other clubs would have access to the information that shows a distinct decline in output & availability. If I’m a GM & discussing Polanco with the Twins it’s also pretty easy to see the clogged roster spots in the infield…….seems to be a clear bargaining chip.

I’m taking the less cost player with best defense as my utility guy in the infield - guy v. LH pitching at 2B. Farmer.

Castro is going to be on the roster and available at all 3 spots as well.

We can sign & trade Polanco, as I stated, with the probable caveat that another player will need to be included to get reasonable return.

We could also not take any financial risk and do him a favor and let him be a FA.

I'd strongly advise against looking at it from a starter/utility guy standpoint because that will lead you to the lesser player every time. And it should be obvious to all of us that injuries are going to occur. 

This team is going to have depth in 2024 with or without Polanco or Farmer. With the depth box checked... you can't improve the team with more depth... the team needs to move to the next phase which is choosing the better players... not what you have termed utility players.  

I don't want to come across as negative toward Farmer because he doesn't deserve that but between Polanco and Farmer... Polanco is the better player. No matter if you see a decline in Polanco... it's really hard to argue that Farmer is the better player. 115 OPS+ for Polanco last year compared to 97 OPS+. 111 OPS+ Career compared to 88 OPS+ career for Farmer. Polanco is 29 compared to Farmer at age 33. 

Granted Polanco will cost 10.5 and Farmer is estimated at 6.2. Polanco is 4.3 more but from a value standpoint 6.2 is a lot money for what you term as utility. 

Now if you want to trade Polanco to acquire even better talent like you suggest... OK. That's a reasonable game plan for roster building.

If we are concerned about who will play SS in the case Correa needs some time off... I can see some logic in that.

However... simply choosing Farmer over Polanco for utility purposes is a huge mistake in my opinion. If given the choice between two players at this stage... you always choose the better player. Polanco is the better player. 

Whoever is rostered... they will play and they will play a lot. If they don't... they are not needed.    

The depth box is checked. This year should be about adding higher level talent. 

[Fatbat]

@Riverbrian if next year we had Castro as a 4th outfielder(super utility) and Polanco and Farmer as the backup infielders, we would have a very strong roster.  Assuming AK comes back healthy and raking in June, we also have adequate 1st base platoon coverage.  If Lee wins a job in training camp, we will be absolutely stacked with young talent!

[nicksaviking]

23 hours ago, Woof Bronzer said:

The rationalizing strikeouts thing is so odd, and it's done in bad faith.  The poster was saying a K is better than grounding into a double play, but obviously players don't choose to hit into a double play when they swing the bat.  Putting the ball in play will result in getting on base 30% of the time.  If we care about analytics and numbers and data there is no rationalizing for favoring strikeouts to putting the ball in play.  The Twins had 10x the outs by strikeout as by double play.   

If we're doing the silly bad faith rationalizing I'll say that hitting a HR is always beneficial to a K....by far.  Can't hit an HR if you strikeout!  

Whether or not you agree with what the poster is saying regarding the value of a strikeout, I think you're missing the reasoning for the strikeouts. It's not because the Twins are swinging and missing a ton, it's because they AREN'T swinging and there is a distinction. Julien and Wallner both see over 4 pitches per plate appearance, which is a lot. The goal isn't to get a good read on the pitcher so much as it is to make the pitcher throw more pitches and get him out of the game.

So the strikeout itself doesn't have value, but the method does. I don't feel it provides enough value currently, but if they keep the method while either reducing the current players' strikeouts, or find players who can do so, then there is a lot of value in having a lineup that makes the opposing pitchers work more inefficiently than the other teams do.

[Woof Bronzer]

3 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Whether or not you agree with what the poster is saying regarding the value of a strikeout, I think you're missing the reasoning for the strikeouts. It's not because the Twins are swinging and missing a ton, it's because they AREN'T swinging and there is a distinction. Julien and Wallner both see over 4 pitches per plate appearance, which is a lot. The goal isn't to get a good read on the pitcher so much as it is to make the pitcher throw more pitches and get him out of the game.

So the strikeout itself doesn't have value, but the method does. I don't feel it provides enough value currently, but if they keep the method while either reducing the current players' strikeouts, or find players who can do so, then there is a lot of value in having a lineup that makes the opposing pitchers work more inefficiently than the other teams do.

Good points.  Definitely a distinction.  Working the count, drawing walks, etc is different than just swinging as hard as humanly possible and hoping you somehow "pulverize" an 0-2 pitch.   If you listen to Falvey though he's clearly in the 2nd camp, which doesn't give me any optimism that things will improve.