So you're saying there's a chance (to avoid the wildcard round)

[Trov]

First, it is very unlikely that we will.  We are currently 5.5 games behind Houston for the number 2 division winner and a bye for first round.  Houston is fighting with Seattle and Texas, kind of, for the division.  The Twins have 23 games left and after today, 6 are against teams that are either in playoffs or fighting for spot.  The reaming 16 will be against very bad teams that are fighting for the bottom of the league. So at first blush it looks good for us to maybe make up ground.

However, Houston is getting healthy and they have similar easy schedule.  They will have 9 games after today with teams fighting for playoff spots, with also 9 against KC and Oakland.  They only have 3 against Seattle, who we are also behind for the division.  Seattle was super hot to jump up to division lead, but recently lost 3 in a row. 

If Twins win 2 out of 3 games going down stretch that would be about 14 more wins, putting us at 87 and 75.  That would mean Houston could only win 8 more games down the stretch for us to tie them.  I believe we have tie breaker, did not look it up.  To really catch them my guess we will need to win closer to 17 games, which is a lot because it would be only 6 losses the rest of the way.  I doubt we will catch them, and would take a crazy hot stretch to do it.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

I've been watching this for a past week or two and it's just not going to happen. It would require not only red-hot Twins play but the simultaneous collapse of three teams in the ALW, which I'm not sure is even possible given their schedules (haven't looked).

[IndianaTwin]

3 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I've been watching this for a past week or two and it's just not going to happen. It would require not only red-hot Twins play but the simultaneous collapse of three teams in the ALW, which I'm not sure is even possible given their schedules (haven't looked).

Correct. The three teams have 11 games amongst themselves, so that's 11 guaranteed wins for some team. 

• Houston vs. Texas = 1 (today)
• Texas vs. Seattle = 7
• Seattle vs. Houston = 3

[nicksaviking]

Had the "hot" AL West team been Texas or Seattle, I think the Twins could have pulled this off.  Houston on the other hand had the best schedule of the three. Today is the last game between the Astros and Rangers, and the Astros only have three left with the Mariners. Meanwhile the seven of their last ten games, the Mariners and Rangers play each other, and at the same time the Twins last three series are against the Angels, A's and Rockies. That was the Twins opening, but the Astros look like they're stealing the bag again.

Though, should the Twins somehow only find themselves two back with  nine to play, I'd like to revisit this post (probably to delete it).

On the bright side, the Astros are probably the one team the Twins have a playoff hang-up with this year, and they wouldn'tt be a 1st round option.

[Nine of twelve]

We have to overtake 3 teams to accomplish this. Highly unlikely.

Assuming we advance, what will be more important for us is to make sure we are set up for the postseason: make sure players get enough rest and juggle the starting rotation. Our W-L record is a lower priority. 

On a related matter, if we were to make it to the World Series and play against one of the NL wild card teams would our division championship give us the first two games at home?

[gunnarthor]

Considering where we were just a few months ago, I'm thrilled that we will make the playoffs. 

[IaBeanCounter]

49 minutes ago, Nine of twelve said:

We have to overtake 3 teams to accomplish this. Highly unlikely.

Assuming we advance, what will be more important for us is to make sure we are set up for the postseason: make sure players get enough rest and juggle the starting rotation. Our W-L record is a lower priority. 

On a related matter, if we were to make it to the World Series and play against one of the NL wild card teams would our division championship give us the first two games at home?

From MLB:

"Prior to the World Series, a Wild Card team cannot have home-field advantage over a division winner, which is why Atlanta (NL East champ) had home field over Los Angeles (Wild Card) in the 2021 NLCS, despite the Dodgers holding an 18-game edge in the standings. But in the World Series, all that matters is winning percentage."

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

I for one hope the Twins do not go all out to attempt to overtake the ALW winner for a higher seed.  We need to rest up once the division is locked down and just be ready for our first round opponent.  Sometimes teams with byes get cold and lose in the first round anyway.  Best for us to be rested and somewhat hot going into that first round.

[GusGus11]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

Had the "hot" AL West team been Texas or Seattle, I think the Twins could have pulled this off.  Houston on the other hand had the best schedule of the three. Today is the last game between the Astros and Rangers, and the Astros only have three left with the Mariners. Meanwhile the seven of their last ten games, the Mariners and Rangers play each other, and at the same time the Twins last three series are against the Angels, A's and Rockies. That was the Twins opening, but the Astros look like they're stealing the bag again.

Though, should the Twins somehow only find themselves two back with  nine to play, I'd like to revisit this post (probably to delete it).

On the bright side, the Astros are probably the one team the Twins have a playoff hang-up with this year, and they wouldn'tt be a 1st round option.

ONly downside is

They would become the best of 5 option and now we have to go on the road with their staff fully rested.

But yeah, they were always the WC I wanted to avoid to at least try and win that.

Would be most Ideal if they end up the 5. But I just dont see how Texas or Seattle beats them out.

[Brandon]

I was just thinking if the Twins go 17-6 they end up with 90 wins and for some reason I feel it’s more respectable to go into the playoffs as a 90 win team even though it really doesn’t matter.  Maybe it’s just a goal I want to see the Twins attain.  To beat the AL West Division winner, we would probably need to go 19-4 or possibly 18-5 and then it would take a 13-9 or 12-10 by the Astros to tie.  The Astros are more likely to do their part in this situation and we are not.  I would love to see the Twins make this an interesting race the last week of the season though.  I’m thinking we end up going 14-9 or 13-10 to close out the season and that puts us in the 86-87 win range.  Looking forward to seeing how it turns out especially with an emerging offensive core.  

[insagt1]

Astros right now are maybe the most dangerous team in the AL. They are on a serious roll and looking every bit like the defending Champs. If the O's have their 'non-swept' series streak snapped, it will be Houston doing it. I see them pulling away from Seattle and Texas and winning the division easily and I don't want to face them in any short series.

[Azviking101]

It's as likely as Cleveland winning the division.

[Number3]

Thanks to the Texas collapse at least there is a possibility but short answer is no. Best scenario is to win 2 straight at home in the wildcard round so that the pitching staff is as rested as possible for the divisional round. Ironic that the nemesis in recent playoff appearances has been those wascally (see Elmer Fudd) Yankees and they are no where to be found. That in itself is a good omen.

[Riverbrian]

Incredible ground gaining in September has happened often enough that it can't be discounted. 

With that said... I wouldn't bet on it.   

  

 

 

[jkcarew]

Not even remotely likely. Houston has a soft schedule and a smaller lead to protect. No. I would expect the opposite…if anything, Houston will finish with a larger lead on the Twins than they currently have.

[Nine of twelve]

Bumping this.

The Twins have to pass three teams (Houston, Texas, and Seattle) to beat out the ALW winner. Because of games those teams have remaining against one another the most favorable possible result in the ALW is a tie between Houston and Texas at 86 wins with Seattle at 85 wins. If all three of those teams lose every remaining game against opponents other than themselves, and if Houston wins 2 of its 3 remaining games against Seattle, and if Seattle wins 3 of its 7 remaining games against Texas, the Twins would gain the #2 postseason seed with a 7-5 finish to their season. Any departure from that increases the number of games the Twins need to win.

With tiebreakers accounted for, Houston’s magic number over us is 8, and for Texas and Seattle it’s 10.

The Twins have been eliminated from passing Baltimore and Tampa Bay

[SwainZag]

The chances are overly slim, but we should know in next 5 games or so if even doable.  I'm on the fence if I want to see it come down to the final series, or if the Twins would be better locking in the 3 and being able to rest a few players down the stretch.

[Number3]

Now 5 games behind with 12 games to play. Probably have to win 10 of the 12 to do it but, like they say in golf, just post a score. I still don't mind the 3 game wild card at home (hopefully 2) to get their feet wet. They now haven't played really meaningful games in a long time but do seem to have an "expect to win" mentality and are enjoying the game.

[jkcarew]

If we put math to this, it would round to 0%. Twins would need to win at least 10 for the percent chance to even nudge up materially. And keep in mind, the Twins would likely be resting people big time in that scenario. Meanwhile, Houston has a series with KC remaining…and Texas and Seattle remain ahead as well.

It’s time to simply be thrilled that we’ll be a 3 seed…while having the 5th, 6th, or as is the current case, the 7th best record in the league.

[chpettit19]

Getting your rotation lined up for October 3, 4, 5 is far more important than trying to chase down 3 other teams to get that 2 seed. Get your guys 2 more starts, but do it in a way that lines up Lopez, Gray, and Ryan (or Gray, Lopez, Ryan) for October 3, 4, 5.

[insagt1]

I don't think Twins have any real shot at catching Houston, and has been stated, maybe they really shouldn't. A best of 3 at home, with our two top starters ready to go should be more favorable than a 5 game series where there is a lot more moving parts. And remember Twins haven't won a playoff game in 18 tries.

Perhaps the O's can help out in the following 3 against the Astros, but I'm not counting on it. Based on the party they threw yesterday, I wonder if they have sobered up enough to compete tonite as it is!!

I'd like the Twins to play solid baseball over these last 12 games. Don't fall into any bad habits. Play to win and go into post season on top of their game.

[SwainZag]

Things almost got interesting today as Baltimore had the 1-0 lead late, but Houston came back and walked off our old friend Danny Coloumbe to avoid the sweep and maintain a 4 game lead on the Twins with 8 games to go.  The win also kept them in 1st place, the M's would have overtaken them by percentage points when they finish off Oakland, currently up 6-1.  

[stringer bell]

58 minutes ago, SwainZag said:

Things almost got interesting today as Baltimore had the 1-0 lead late, but Houston came back and walked off our old friend Danny Coloumbe to avoid the sweep and maintain a 4 game lead on the Twins with 8 games to go.  The win also kept them in 1st place, the M's would have overtaken them by percentage points when they finish off Oakland, currently up 6-1.  

If the Twins win all their games, they have a small chance. However, with so many games between the teams, someone will win them. Things would have to go just right for one of the teams not to win 90 games. As noted, the Twins have the tiebreaker with both Texas teams, but not Seattle. 
 

Domination in any of the head-to-head matchups or a Twin loss or two would render this thread moot. 

[SkyBlueWaters]

 

I'd love to see the Twins post the second best record in the AL and get a bye in the first round of the playoffs, but there's a little voice telling me:  hold on a second.

Forgive my small hopes, but wouldn't it be a great first step to simply win a playoff game for the first time since YouTube was created? I'm thinking matching up with Seattle or Texas in the wildcard round might give us good odds.

Yeah, I want to see a world series in Target Field, too. But let's build some playoff confidence enroute. So maybe, with the days off built into the playoff schedule, we can line up our pitchers and build some confidence. We've got more quality pitching than we've had in a looong time.

 

[tjwilliams]

I ran the numbers on this after today's games and the basic problem is just how many games Texas, Seattle, and Houston play against each other (Texas and Seattle play seven while Seattle and Houston play three).

If the Twins finish 7-2, it requires the Astros to go 3-6, the Mariners to go 3-7, and the Rangers to go 4-6. There's possibly some flexibility there if there's a four-way tie, but that's the basic idea. It puts the Twins, Astros, and Rangers all at 88 wins and the Mariners at 87 (Twins have the tiebreaker against Houston and Texas but not Seattle).

Since Texas and Seattle play seven, that means the Mariners can't win 4 and the Rangers can't win 5, so the only option is Texas winning 4/7. That means they need to get swept by the Angels. If the Mariners win 3/7 against Texas, they have to get swept by Houston. And if Houston sweeps Seattle, they have to lose all 6 to Kansas City and Arizona. It's basically impossible.

Best case scenario is the Twins going 9-0, but even then you're looking at some combination of Texas having to lose at least one to the Angels and the Astros having to lose at least three or four to the Royals and Diamondbacks.

[Riverbrian]

11 hours ago, tjwilliams said:

I ran the numbers on this after today's games and the basic problem is just how many games Texas, Seattle, and Houston play against each other (Texas and Seattle play seven while Seattle and Houston play three).

If the Twins finish 7-2, it requires the Astros to go 3-6, the Mariners to go 3-7, and the Rangers to go 4-6. There's possibly some flexibility there if there's a four-way tie, but that's the basic idea. It puts the Twins, Astros, and Rangers all at 88 wins and the Mariners at 87 (Twins have the tiebreaker against Houston and Texas but not Seattle).

Since Texas and Seattle play seven, that means the Mariners can't win 4 and the Rangers can't win 5, so the only option is Texas winning 4/7. That means they need to get swept by the Angels. If the Mariners win 3/7 against Texas, they have to get swept by Houston. And if Houston sweeps Seattle, they have to lose all 6 to Kansas City and Arizona. It's basically impossible.

Best case scenario is the Twins going 9-0, but even then you're looking at some combination of Texas having to lose at least one to the Angels and the Astros having to lose at least three or four to the Royals and Diamondbacks.

On a scale of 1 to 10... This post is a 17. 

[Number3]

The comeback against the Reds kept it interesting but main thing is to keep playing the way they have been. Right now they are a team that no one in the AL would be thrilled to go up against.

[Logi_Clevs]

12 hours ago, tjwilliams said:

I ran the numbers on this after today's games and the basic problem is just how many games Texas, Seattle, and Houston play against each other (Texas and Seattle play seven while Seattle and Houston play three).

If the Twins finish 7-2, it requires the Astros to go 3-6, the Mariners to go 3-7, and the Rangers to go 4-6. There's possibly some flexibility there if there's a four-way tie, but that's the basic idea. It puts the Twins, Astros, and Rangers all at 88 wins and the Mariners at 87 (Twins have the tiebreaker against Houston and Texas but not Seattle).

Since Texas and Seattle play seven, that means the Mariners can't win 4 and the Rangers can't win 5, so the only option is Texas winning 4/7. That means they need to get swept by the Angels. If the Mariners win 3/7 against Texas, they have to get swept by Houston. And if Houston sweeps Seattle, they have to lose all 6 to Kansas City and Arizona. It's basically impossible.

Best case scenario is the Twins going 9-0, but even then you're looking at some combination of Texas having to lose at least one to the Angels and the Astros having to lose at least three or four to the Royals and Diamondbacks.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

[waltomeal]

On 9/21/2023 at 12:16 PM, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Yes.