tjwilliams

What it's supposed to establish is that, within the context of "Top Prospect Who Makes it to AAA by 21 Years Old," calling Jenkins up would not be some outlier. This is pretty much the normal progression for a player like him. Look at any of the guys in the majors right now at 22 or younger and very few of them have more than 100 games or so at AAA and most have far fewer. Jenkins is young for an MLB player, but calling him up would not be unusual given his pedigree and progression.

This is pretty much what Cleveland is doing with Angel Genao right now. They called him up a few weeks ago and, recently, he's started twice at 2B so Bazzanna could DH. He's started at 3B to give Ramirez a day off and let him DH. He's started at SS to give Rocchio a day off. He's started 12 of their last 13 games and is raking. Ramirez has started 10/13, Bazzanna has started 11/13, and Rocchio has started 11/13. Now, the big difference for the Twins is they have Josh Bell as the everyday DH and Larnach and Keaschall have been better hitters than the Guardians IF (though Larnach has a .580 OPS over the last month). It's not the craziest idea, though. Edit: Forgot to add that Genao is hitting .341/.413/.463.

The "super-young" argument doesn't really hold water, I don't think. Walker Jenkins is the oldest, most-experienced top prospect who is still at AAA. Here's what I mean by that: I looked at the Top 50 ESPN prospects (they just updated their list today). Of all the prospects who are as old or older than Jenkins, four are currently in the majors, eight are at AA or below and five are at AAA. Of the five at AAA, here is their experience level there - Walker Jenkins - 86 GP, 380 PA (started the season at AAA) Aidan Miller - 8 GP, 37 PA (started the season at AA) Cam Cannarella - 23 GP, 101 PA (started the season at A+) Seaver King - 49 GP, 220 PA (started the season at AA) Thomas White - 5 GS, 81 BF (started the season at A) No Top 50 prospect currently at AAA is older than Jenkins, with more experience at that level than he has. Even factoring in his injury time, Jenkins has more experience this year at AAA than any prospect his age. And he's the only top prospect at his age (or older) who started the season at AAA who has not yet been called up. And if you look at the guys who are older than Jenkins and in the majors now, they all have roughly the same AAA experience (if not less) as he has had: Max Clark - 90 GP, 418 PA (two months older than Jenkins) Angel Genao - 72 GP, 309 PA (nine months older than Jenkins) Kaelen Culpepper - 74 GP, 343 PA Luis Lara - 78 GP, 346 PA (three months older than Jenkins) It is just not the case that Walker Jenkins is "super-young." Are there older prospects still below him? Certainly. But all of the prospects his age or older who started the season at AAA are now in the majors and the only prospects his age or older who are currently at AAA didn't start the season there and have significantly less AAA experience than him.

I ran the numbers on this after today's games and the basic problem is just how many games Texas, Seattle, and Houston play against each other (Texas and Seattle play seven while Seattle and Houston play three). If the Twins finish 7-2, it requires the Astros to go 3-6, the Mariners to go 3-7, and the Rangers to go 4-6. There's possibly some flexibility there if there's a four-way tie, but that's the basic idea. It puts the Twins, Astros, and Rangers all at 88 wins and the Mariners at 87 (Twins have the tiebreaker against Houston and Texas but not Seattle). Since Texas and Seattle play seven, that means the Mariners can't win 4 and the Rangers can't win 5, so the only option is Texas winning 4/7. That means they need to get swept by the Angels. If the Mariners win 3/7 against Texas, they have to get swept by Houston. And if Houston sweeps Seattle, they have to lose all 6 to Kansas City and Arizona. It's basically impossible. Best case scenario is the Twins going 9-0, but even then you're looking at some combination of Texas having to lose at least one to the Angels and the Astros having to lose at least three or four to the Royals and Diamondbacks.

Maybe somebody else already did this, but I wanted to get some context for how crazy Luis Arraez's start has been (he's hitting 52% better than the league average), so I calculated the "batting average above average" for every batting title winner for the last 100 years. Think of it as OPS+ but just for batting average and without any park adjustments. Prior to this year, there have been only two seasons in MLB history where a player hit 50% better than the league average: Ted Williams in 1941 (.406 BA, 156 BA+) and Ted Williams in 1957 (.388 BA, 150 BA+). Arraez is currently at a 152 BA+. The closest modern comparison (not counting the Covid-shortened season in 2020) is George Brett in 1980 (.390 BA, 147 BA+). When you consider that pitchers still hit during Williams's time (and Fenway Park was a crazy hitters' park in 1957), it's clear that Arraez is currently having the best season for pure batting average since Ted Williams became the last player to hit .400. Now, the league average is likely to come up over the next four months and Arraez is unlikely to keep hitting .367, but for two months, this has been all-time great season for pure hitting.