Is Matt Wallner's Playoff Roster Spot in Jeopardy Amidst Slump?

[Cody Schoenmann]

Twins rookie Matt Wallner is enduring his first set of prolonged offensive struggles at the Major League level. Can Wallner return to form before the start of the playoffs? Or will his spot on the Twins' playoff roster get taken by someone else?

Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker - USA TODAY Sports

 

A young player's first full season in Major League Baseball is often a story of ups and downs. It is a yin-and-yang relationship where the highest of highs tend to get followed up by the lowest of lows. That phenomenon is currently happening to Twins rookie outfielder Matt Wallner.

Wallner, 25, made his Major League debut for the Twins in mid-September of the 2022 season, hitting .228/.323/.386 (.709) with 13 hits, two home runs, and a 103 wRC+ over 65 plate appearances. The toolsy outfielder was impressive during his first cup of coffee at the Major League level, but making meaningful conclusions over such a short sample size would be malpractice. 

The early portion of the 2023 season saw him making multiple trips east and west along I-94. Wallner started the 2023 season with the St. Paul Saints and was eventually called up by the Twins on April 9 to replace a then-injured Max Kepler, who was placed on the 10-day IL on April 8. He played in six games for the Twins and couldn't generate a hit in 11 plate appearances before getting optioned back over to St. Paul on April 15. The Twins then recalled Wallner a second time on May 23, and he performed exceptionally well, hitting .636/.714/1.000 (1.714) with seven hits, one home run, and a 364 wRC+ over 14 plate appearances.

Nevertheless, he was sent over to the 651 once again. 

Over the next month and a half, Wallner hit well enough that most Twins fans wondered why he wasn't getting an opportunity over then-struggling left-handed hitting corner outfielders Trevor Larnach, Joey Gallo, and Max Kepler. Finally, on July 17, Wallner again got promoted from Triple-A St. Paul and has been with the Major League club ever since.

Wallner started his third stint off hot, hitting .238/.333/.571 (.904) with 15 hits, six home runs, and a well-above-league average wRC+ of 145 from July 17 to August 6. He capped off this hot stretch with a walk-off home run off Arizona Diamondbacks closer Paul Sewald.

The Twins, their fans, and Wallner himself were riding a high and reasonably so. A young, highly-touted prospect finally got an opportunity to contribute to his home-state team and was performing incredibly well. Why wouldn't everyone celebrate Unfortunately, Wallner's walk-off against the Diamondbacks marked the beginning of a downward spiral that has many questioning his short and long-term future with the Twins. 

To put Wallner's struggles into perspective, here are his numbers since August 7:

• Wallner - .172/.308/.391 (.699), 104 PA, 15 hits, two doubles, one triple, five home runs, 10.6% BB%, 35.6% K%, .218 ISO, .222 BABIP, 96 wRC+

Wallner hasn't performed terribly in this stretch, but it is arguably the worst month-long stretch of his career. To condense the sample size provided even more, here are Wallner's numbers since September 1:

• Wallner - .154/.333/.269 (.602), 33 PA, four hits, one home run, 21.2% BB%, 36.4% K%, .115 ISO, .231 BABIP, 81 wRC+

Offensively, he is struggling immensely as of late, and his ballooned K% of 36.4% and exaggerated swing-and-miss profile have many Twins fans derogatorily dubbing Wallner as a young version of Gallo. 

So, what is happening to Wallner? Let's take a look. 

Increased Swing-and-Miss Rate
To begin, Wallner swings and misses at a lot of pitches, and while this isn't an inherently bad thing (see: Edouard Julien), the amount in which Wallner swings and misses on pitches is alarming. 

The best way to illustrate Wallner's swing-and-miss problem is through using the batting statistic titled Whiff%, which is a statistic that divides a hitter's total number of swings and misses by their total number of swings. 

Wallner currently possesses a Whiff% of 37.1% on fastballs, 43.1% on breaking balls, and 28.1% on off-speed pitches. Combined, Wallner's overall Whiff% sits at 37.5%.

To go back to the Gallo comparison, Gallo currently possesses a Whiff% of 37.1% on fastballs, 50.6% on breaking balls, and 58.4% on offspeed pitches. 

Nobody in modern baseball has as high of a Whiff% of Gallo and his 1st-percentile Whiff%, but Wallner is alarmingly close, particularly on fastballs, where he has an identical Whiff% as Gallo of 37.1%.

Wallner has struggled hitting fastballs as of late, but there is reason to believe he can quickly overcome this specific shortcoming at a relatively quick pace.

Hitters tend to be able to make the appropriate adjustments on fastballs as they typically need to make slight revisions to both their timing and swing paths. Wallner should be able to make the adjustments, and while it likely will not happen this season, an offseason of tinkering with his swing should help him catch up to fastballs at a sustainable rate.

What is alarming is that Wallner has a Whiff% of 43.1% on breaking balls. Hitters are less likely to make quick and relatively simple adjustments and suddenly be able to hit breaking balls like they can with fastballs. There is much more nuance to hitting breaking balls, and an extreme overhaul of Wallner's swing may be necessary.

While this overhaul will not happen this late in the season, it is something to monitor this upcoming offseason, and it will be interesting to see how Wallner's stance and swing plane look next Spring Training.

Until then, all the Twins can do is work with the player they have now. And while teams will continue to attack Wallner with both fastballs and breaking balls, there is reason to believe he can make the necessary short-term adjustments, particularly with fastballs, to help him perform more like the player he was in late July and early August.

Wallner may need to simplify his stance and shorten his swing to get the most out of his at-bats for the rest of the season, and that may come at the expense of some power, but that is a trade-off that Wallner and the Twins would likely accept with open arms for the time being.

Are Wallner's Struggles Simply Him Being a Young Player?
Young players struggling, especially those of the power-hitting variety, is in no way an uncommon phenomenon as other young Twins hitters in Trevor Larnach, Gilberto Celestino, Ryan Jeffers, Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, Willi Castro, and the previously mentioned Julien either have or currently are undergoing offensive struggles of their own.

What separates young players who can stay at the Major League level (i.e., Kirilloff and Lewis) and those who end up stuck in the constant limbo of being a Quad-A player (i.e., Celestino and Larnach) is whether they can make the necessary adjustments needed to be able to hit Major League pitching at a satisfactory rate. 

Wallner may be enduring the same struggles that every young player does, and he may be able to turn the corner and become a consistent contributor for the Twins for seasons to come. Unfortunately, the timing of his struggles at the plate couldn't have happened at a more inopportune time. 

The Twins are all but set to make their first postseason appearance since 2020, and the complicated judgment of who makes the playoff roster and who gets left off will soon need to be made by Twins decision-makers. 

A month ago, it seemed like Wallner was a near lock to make the roster, but that once obvious decision has become much cloudier as Wallner continues to struggle.

Should Wallner Make the Twins Playoff Roster?
To answer this question, we must first examine how the Twins outfield will likely look come playoff time.

Currently, the Twins outfield options include Wallner, Kepler, Castro, Kirilloff, Celestino, Jordan Luplow, and Andrew Stevenson. Other potential outfield options include players on the injured list: Gallo, Nick Gordon, Byron Buxton, and Michael A. Taylor.

Prospect Austin Martin is another option, but the Twins adding him to the 40-man roster and throwing him into action in the middle of a pennant race feels highly unlikely. 

Looking at the Twins' current outfield situation, Kepler, Castro, Kirilloff, and Luplow feel like locks to make the playoff roster. Luplow is strictly a right-handed platoon player, but his archetype is all too valuable in the playoffs. Celestino is only on the roster to take up space until Jorge Polanco returns from the bereavement list, and Stevenson could make the playoff roster, but he feels like a long shot.

It always takes work to get a read on where players are regarding their health. Yet, when discussing Gallo, Buxton, Gordon, and Taylor, it feels like Taylor is a lock to make the playoff roster, while the potentially soon-to-return Gallo and Gordon could make it if injuries pile up. But unless that happens, Gordon and Gallo also feel like long shots. 

Buxton is a unique case; there is no reason to speculate until the Twins provide official updates. 

As things stand, Wallner is likely on track to make the playoff roster alongside fellow outfield options Kepler, Castro, Kirilloff, Luplow, and Taylor. 

If Wallner continues to struggle and a veteran like Buxton, Gallo, or Gordon returns from the injured list and produces, or if Stevenson begins to produce more offensively, Wallner's status could change. 

Come Game One of the Wild Card Series, the Twins will likely start Taylor in center field and Kepler in right field. Who will start in left field is still open for the taking, and if Wallner continues to struggle, don't be surprised if Castro, Luplow, or Kirilloff start in left field come October 3.

Wallner's first stretch of prolonged struggles were expected, but the timing could not have been more unfortunate for the young Minnesota native.

What do you make of Wallner's struggles? Does he deserve to make the Twins playoff roster? Comment below.

 

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[stringer bell]

Unmentioned as a potential replacement is Trevor Larnach, who had a good week with the Saints last week. Wallner has seemingly passed Larnach, but maybe that isn’t the case. 

[big dog]

I really like Wallner's long-term potential, but I agree that he's not inspiring much confidence right now. Hopefully he can trend up over the last couple of weeks of the season.

[blindeke]

Maybe use a picture of Wallner for this article?

[Obie]

If memory serves, two of his recent home runs were off position players. If that is correct, that skews his numbers even lower.

[Karbo]

They will cut down the size of the pitching staff by at least 2 I would guess, and with a couple of extra spots I can't imagine they leave Wallner off. He may not start, but could be a pinch hitter off the bench.

[HrbieFan]

Wallner is Gallo 2.0 without the track record. Unless Wallner heats up in the next few weeks, I'm going with Gallo instead and the reason is defense and position flexibility.  

[mikelink45]

I am hoping he turns the corner.  It is a tough transition, but at this point Larnach looks like a better option. 

[Trov]

Unless Wallner can show he can start hitting the fastball in the zone again, he will, and should be replaced for playoff roster.  The value Wallner brings is simply his offense.  His defense is not good.  I have seen worse and he has a good arm, but he has made poor decisions on his throws at times, and he does not look smooth in the outfield at all.  Yes, at any moment he could drive a HR, but he is becoming Gallo, but without the defense Gallo can provide.  

Assuming Taylor comes back, he will start CF, and Castro would most likely start LF.  Leaving Wallner as a bench option.  However, he would be used as a pinch hitter against a righty hoping he launches one.  I would rather fill that bench roll with someone like Gordon, if he is healthy and can run, because he has better defense, can fill more positions, and can be used as a pinch runner if needed.  No he does not have the power of Wallner, but right now Wallner doing terrible.  He needs to make the adjustments and the playoffs are not the time to figure that out. 

If playoffs started today, he would be on roster, but with health to Taylor, Gordon or Gallo, Wallner will be on outside looking in for now. 

[Road trip]

Almost no chance Wallner gets left off the playoff roster.

Yes, he has had a rough stretch, but that is to be expected of all young players.

The roster alternatives are.. Joey Gallo (43% strikeout rate)?  Trevor Larnach (minimal history of MLB success)?  I think we can stop wishing for Buxton... it isn't going to happen.  

Despite recent struggles, Wallner still leads all Twins outfielders in OPS.  Yes, even better than Kepler.  That also includes a lot of recent at bats against lefties (and yes, I am quite willing to sit Wallner against lefties for the playoffs... he really struggles).  Wallner's splits show he can mash right handers though.

He has adjustments to make.  So do all young players.  Way, way too early to give up on him.

[saviking]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

Unmentioned as a potential replacement is Trevor Larnach, who had a good week with the Saints last week. Wallner has seemingly passed Larnach, but maybe that isn’t the case. 

Agreed. I would replace Wallner with Larnach right now if for nothing more than letting Wallner regain his stroke in AAA. We haven't made the playoffs technically yet, so why not go with the hot hand? But you have to admire that even though Wallner is in a slump, he is still getting on base at a 333 clip due to walks.

[Eris]

“Wallner started his third stint off hot, hitting .238/.333/.571 (.904) with 15 hits, six home runs, and a well-above-league average wRC+ of 145 from July 17 to August 6.”

Maybe there is a deficiency with statistics in that a player with a batting average of 0.238 is considered to be 45% above league average. It seems that power may be overrated. 
 

Ronald Acuna Jr., has a K% = 11.3 with a BA = 0.334 has a WRC+ of 168.  (Data is from Fangraphs)

[roger]

Not a huge Wallner fan here, but then I value defense a lot more than most of you.  Will admit his D has become acceptable, especially considering his cannon for an arm.  But it seems like he knows he is going to K when he steps into the batters box.  Was happy to see him sit last night.  He either needs to re-set or have a long winter to work on some things.

In the big picture, I doubt his role with the 2024 Twins is set in stone.  Wouldn't surprise me in the least if Larnach opens the season with the Twins and Wallner does not.  Would be surprised if the Twins traded him over the winter, but one never knows should they get the right offer.  

[David Maro]

Worst thing to happen to Wallner was hitting the walk off Grand Slam. He now thinks every at bat has to be homerun. Needs to work on hitting line drives and getting the ball in play. But then again that is not what this team does or wants. His defense is not good and thinks his arm will make up for it. Play him off the bench for now and leave him off the playoff roster to start. If someone in the outfield goes down in round one or isn't hitting move him in in round 2. That of course if they get to round 2.

[Beast]

We can’t have both Gallo and Wallner on the roster, IMO.  Gallo has a leg up at first glance with his defensive flexibility.  I was also about to comment on his experience as  well.  But, shockingly, Gallo has played in 1 playoff game (a second as a late inning defensive replacement).  I think Wallner has a better chance contributing as a late inning pinch hitter, which is about all either should be used for.

At the end of the day, flip a coin and pick one, then leave them on the bench as much as possible.  They’re the same guy.  

 

[MGM4706]

Reminds me of Miranda. Young, exciting player for stretches. Thought we had our 3rd baseman for years to come. Then the league figured him out. Could be same situation.

[JD-TWINS]

Walner has 10 days - maybe 8 starts to do some positive things. Hard to imagine, but if he doesn’t do something that looks like a turnaround with contact,, Gallo becomes the 14th bat in October…….for defensive purposes.

Kirilloff to LF - Solano at 1B is a probable. Castro in LF is also an option.

Gallo there for injury sake and possible defensive change in late innings.

No Larnach - No Stevenson - No Celestino - No Martin

Luplow OR Buxton & Gallo.

COME ON Matt!!!

[Road trip]

37 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Kirilloff to LF - Solano at 1B is a probable.

Gosh, for those who don't like Wallner's OF defense, this is not a great solution.  Kirilloff is much slower, and has a very poor arm.  Baseball Savant actually rates his arm below Ben Revere, which I didn't know was even possible.  Kirilloff's LF zone rating trails Wallner substantially.

I like Kirilloff a lot... at first base. 

If it isn't Wallner, my guess is it will likely be Castro against rhp.  Luplow likely will get lefties either way.

[Linus]

14 minutes ago, Road trip said:

Gosh, for those who don't like Wallner's OF defense, this is not a great solution.  Kirilloff is much slower, and has a very poor arm.  Baseball Savant actually rates his arm below Ben Revere, which I didn't know was even possible.  Kirilloff's LF zone rating trails Wallner substantially.

I like Kirilloff a lot... at first base. 

If it isn't Wallner, my guess is it will likely be Castro against rhp.  Luplow likely will get lefties either way.

Completely agree with this. I’m a Kiriloff fan but not in the outfield. One of the things that is way overrated is positional flexibility. There are a few guys that can play multiple positions acceptably well but not many.  Most of the time positional flexibility is another way of saying bad defense. 

[Cody Schoenmann]

1 hour ago, Road trip said:

Gosh, for those who don't like Wallner's OF defense, this is not a great solution.  Kirilloff is much slower, and has a very poor arm.  Baseball Savant actually rates his arm below Ben Revere, which I didn't know was even possible.  Kirilloff's LF zone rating trails Wallner substantially.

I like Kirilloff a lot... at first base. 

If it isn't Wallner, my guess is it will likely be Castro against rhp.  Luplow likely will get lefties either way.

I agree that putting Kirilloff in the OF is less than ideal when it comes to his defense, but the Twins may be forced to do it come playoff time but I don't think it is very likely. I think Kirilloff is solidified as the Twins first baseman for the postseason. If Wallner keeps struggling, I think Castro and Luplow will platoon in LF in at least the Wild Card Series. 

Edited September 12, 2023 by Cody Schoenmann

[Rosterman]

Luplow and Stevenson are most likely toast if the Twins have to add back any of the 60-day IL guys. 

Taylor will be the centerfielder when he returns. Gallo will stay in the mix. Buxton is the one that creates a roster problem where someone has to go if and when he returns. Not to mention if it is worthwhile to throw Gordon into the mix for whatever reason. Yes, Wallner is on the bubble.

But Floro is also on the bubble on the pitching end. If Stewart, Paddack and Alcala come back, three names have to come off the 40-man roster promptly. If it is any of the prospects, say bye-bye.

[Jeff K]

Thank goodness Wallner doesn't have Gallo's track record or the Twins would have to let him go.  Gallo's positive track record is ancient history.  I also think the Twins should consider Stevenson on the roster as a good situational player.  He plays CF and he would be idea to insert as a pinch runner.

[John Belinski]

Both Gallo and Wallner are almost worthless at the plate. They both have strikeout after strikeout. It seems there are better hitters that could help the Twins in the playoffs. It appears pitchers know how to pitch to both of them.

[TwinsDr2021]

34 minutes ago, Jeff K said:

Thank goodness Wallner doesn't have Gallo's track record or the Twins would have to let him go.  Gallo's positive track record is ancient history.  I also think the Twins should consider Stevenson on the roster as a good situational player.  He plays CF and he would be idea to insert as a pinch runner.

As long as Stevenson never gets an at bat, I can agree with this.

[Road trip]

Strikeouts are bad.  I think we all agree.  Many posters seem to be equating Wallner with Gallo.  Just for context, here are the strikeout %'s for several 2023 Twins:

Gallo - 42.8%

Garlick - 36.7%
Larnach - 35.6%
Taylor - 33.3%
Wallner - 32.5%
Buxton - 31.4%
Julien - 31.1%
Jeffers - 29.4%
...
Best on roster: Kepler - 21.8%

There are no players who strike out at anything resembling the rate that Gallo does.  While Wallner's recent trend is certainly going the wrong way, it isn't close to Gallo levels.  Wallner's numbers, in fact, are roughly equal distance between the worst rate (Gallo) and the best rate on the roster (Kepler -  I didn't include Gordon as he has barely played this year).

[joefish]

We have no idea if Wallner can hit his way out of this slump. If it doesnt happen SOON, I'm all for his demotion. Larnach might be a better option. 

Wallner is lost at the plate right now. 

[GeorgiaBaller]

Unmentioned is also the fact that Wallner is a less than average fielder.  He has a decent arm, but no instincts, takes poor paths to the ball in the field, and is slow.  He has a knack for making routine plays look difficult---I guess for him, they are. It would take an immense amount of work for him to get to a major league avg level.    

This is the same story with Larnach and Julien---I'm not sure why the Twins can't develop the positional skills for these players in the minors.

For me, if there is not a glaring upside with the bat to counter the poor play in the field, you don't deserve to be in the lineup---unless you are DH.  From the current considerations this season, I would roster Castro instead of Wallner.

 

[wabene]

I'd like to see both Wallner and Larnach get at bats down the stretch. If Larnach goes off give him a chance to continue in the playoffs. I would also stick with Wallner as well, but maybe a couple of days off to reset are in order.

[RpR]

Wallner is getting at bats and  heading for the Mendoza line; no reason to bring Larnach up unless some one is injured.

[jorgenswest]

3 hours ago, Road trip said:

Strikeouts are bad.  I think we all agree.  Many posters seem to be equating Wallner with Gallo.  Just for context, here are the strikeout %'s for several 2023 Twins:

Gallo - 42.8%

Garlick - 36.7%
Larnach - 35.6%
Taylor - 33.3%
Wallner - 32.5%
Buxton - 31.4%
Julien - 31.1%
Jeffers - 29.4%
...
Best on roster: Kepler - 21.8%

There are no players who strike out at anything resembling the rate that Gallo does.  While Wallner's recent trend is certainly going the wrong way, it isn't close to Gallo levels.  Wallner's numbers, in fact, are roughly equal distance between the worst rate (Gallo) and the best rate on the roster (Kepler -  I didn't include Gordon as he has barely played this year).

I think the concern his 28 days (80 PAs) where it is much closer to Gallo’s at 38.8%. That is a shift from his 28.2% prior. Strikeout rate stabilizes at about 60PAs so a change in 10.6% is significant. Is it possible the league has adjusted and now he needs to adjust? 

I noticed you included Garlick(30 PAs) but not Gordon(11.8% in 93PAs). You also did not include Miranda(15.8% in 152PAs).

Wallner has some time to make that adjustment but if his is still closer to the recent 38 than 28 they should consider alternatives in the playoffs.