The Twins Need to Shake Things Up with Two Obvious Changes

[Adam Friedman]

The mediocrity of this season on the tail of two straight losing seasons rightly frustrates fans. Many fans are calling for change, but what changes should they make?

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

 

The Twins came into this season with modest expectations. Most projection systems had them just above .500, finishing first or second in a lousy division. So far, the Twins lead the division but have failed to break away from the .500 mark and risk falling behind Cleveland, who's just as uninspiring. It's time for the Twins to make two changes.

1. Swap Matt Wallner for Max Kepler
While the manager, coaches, and front office draw plenty of ire, the players have not performed so far. Max Kepler represents that poor performance more than any other Twin.  

Kepler broke out with the Twins in 2019, and many fans believed he'd be a key player for years. Many even believed he had a chance to break out further into one of the game's premier players. The opposite has happened. 

Kepler has gotten worse every season. He was above average offensively in 2020 but dipped below in 2021 and 2022. Now he's reached new lows. His wRC+ sits at 91 going into play on 6/27- meaning he's 9% below average as a hitter. That is untenable for a right fielder in this offense. Thinking Kepler needs to go is hardly an original thought, but it is well past time for the Twins to move on from Kepler - and analysts and fans will continue to say it until he's gone. Over 1,000 at-bats from 2021-23 show he will not get better in Minnesota.

While there's the scary possibility of him hitting bombs for the Yankees or another contender in October or something like that, the Twins need to find a trade partner or DFA Max Kepler because he is a waste of a roster spot, blocking higher upside players- especially Matt Wallner. 
Wallner is the first name that comes to mind when looking for an offensive jolt from the minors, and he can replace Kepler in right field. Wallner raked at the major league level, posting a remarkable and unsustainable 216 wRC+, but he was sent down when Joey Gallo returned from an injury. 

Since his demotion, Wallner has continued to terrorize AAA pitching, as he's done since last season. It is ridiculously frustrating for all involved with the Twins to watch him do this without getting the opportunity to help the major league club. He's the two-time Twins minor league player of the year, yet he's not getting the opportunities he earned in the majors and at AAA. 

He has a knack for striking out but has hit overall at every level. With the strikeouts come a solid walk rate and massive power that the Twins need. Bringing Wallner back could help wake up a sleepy offense. If the Twins are running a team on merit, it's clear Wallner should be playing right field, not Max Kepler. 

2. Fire Hitting Coach David Popkins
While shuffling the players is one way to make a change, the problems with this team may go beyond individual players. With so much underperformance on the offensive side of the ball, the young hitting coach seems like the obvious first person to go if the Twins shake things up. 

It was surprising when the Twins tapped David Popkins as the hitting coach going into 2021 when he was about to turn 32. He had never been above high-A as a hitting coach, so making him the hitting coach of a major league club indicated the Twins management saw something special in Popkins. After almost one and a half seasons of inconsistency on that side of the ball, he isn't having much success. 

Ken Rosenthal indicated on the Athletic on June 16th that the Twins will not fire Popkins- despite the team's struggles offensively. That decision is odd. Star players aren't hitting, and role players like Christian Vazquez and Max Kepler are having career-worst seasons. A change must be made when nobody is hitting- even if there is some risk that it worsens things. 

In his scathing story on the Twins' offense on June 21st, Rosenthal called out the Twins' refusal to cut bait with Max Kepler and David Popkins. He mentions that they still believe Kepler has an upside, but as mentioned earlier, there's no evidence that is true. He indicated that the Twins have no plans to let go of either Kepler or Popkins. Allowing them to toil without results is absurd as the division slips away. Will the Twin's leadership finally see the obvious and make the obvious changes?

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[Cory Engelhardt]

I think if you are expecting Wallner to outperform Kepler, you will probably be disappointed. 

I mean, I'm expecting to win the powerball. That'll happen at some point, right?

 

(I'm NOT saying to not ditch Kepler. It's been time for a while now. I just don't see Wallner being this massive upgrade, or even an upgrade.)

[LastOnePicked]

A little late to make these changes now. 7-8 wins have already been left on the table. However, better late than never.

But I can't see it happening. Falvey/Levine seem to see their coaches as a direct extension of everything they've built. Popkins is "cutting edge." I think they think that's it's just a matter of time until everything clicks and they're revealed as the baseball geniuses they believe themselves to be..

Only, it hasn't clicked and won't click. And then the pressure mounts on the other players. And then injuries are more common. And then the FO can just blame another lost season on bad luck and fluke injuries. Lather, rinse, repeat.

[dberthia]

For once I completely agree with a TD article. Wallner will have growing pains, but let's start letting him go through them. At least at the moment, he has a higher potential ceiling than Kepler. I'd make other moves as well, but these would be the top 2 for me.

[mikelink45]

Add Gallo. Drop Correa and Buxton to lower spot in the lineup. 

[Bamboo Bat]

Good article, but it's tilting at windmills. This front office, as has been mentioned endlessly, will never admit to a mistake mid-season. We're stuck with Max & Poppy for the rest of the season. It's disgusting what could have been with this pitching staff. 

[OvertheHill]

That Rosenthal piece wasn't scathing enough IMO but it's nice to know we aren't all taking crazy pills here

[ValleySpringsFan]

Royce Lewis commented recently about not waiting for pitchers to make a mistake, and being a little more aggressive instead. Very roundabout criticism of the hitting coach. I then wondered (and it's not practical, I know), what would happen if the Twins went without a hitting coach for a couple weeks? They're already on track to set a new strikeout record. What could go worse?

[terrydactyls]

That would be a good start only if a lot more changes happen over the next 30 days.  Sell, sell, sell.

[JoeCool]

These changes need to happen. I honestly would also cut bait with Gallo. 

Even if Wallner does not produce we need to see what we have with him and it can’t be any worse than Kepler.  

Popkins absolutely needs to go. Every single free agent addition has regressed from prior years and I don’t want to see him ruin Royce Lewis. It is so obvious that a change is needed. 

Honestly it is obvious even Rocco needs to go. His game decisions are worse than any manager the Twins have had and I sense even the much less talented Twins teams of the mid 1990’s could beat this team because of game management and missing basic fundamentals.  

[MMMordabito]

[Vanimal46]

I don’t disagree with the moves, but I’ve got to ask… What do people think is the impact of replacing the hitting coach right now? I highly doubt it’s going to change the direction this team is heading. 

[PDX Twin]

10 minutes ago, Bamboo Bat said:

Good article, but it's tilting at windmills. This front office, as has been mentioned endlessly, will never admit to a mistake mid-season. We're stuck with Max & Poppy for the rest of the season. It's disgusting what could have been with this pitching staff. 

I feel like the organization is being run by Enron alumni. Despite evidence to the contrary, they are convinced that they are smarter than everyone else and that they will eventually rule the world.

Only someone named Pohlad can change things. Is he part of the problem or part of the solution?

[Dbohnk]

I used to think that the Terry Ryan/Gardenhire era was bad for the Twins hanging on to unproductive veterans instead of going with higher upside younger players but this era might be even worse. 

[DJL44]

Everyone wants to bring up Wallner but Larnach hits just as well and plays a lot better defense.

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, Dbohnk said:

I used to think that the Terry Ryan/Gardenhire era was bad for the Twins hanging on to unproductive veterans instead of going with higher upside younger players but this era might be even worse. 

It's hard to believe, but I agree. 

[roger]

14 minutes ago, PDX Twin said:

I feel like the organization is being run by Enron alumni. Despite evidence to the contrary, they are convinced that they are smarter than everyone else and that they will eventually rule the world.

Only someone named Pohlad can change things. Is he part of the problem or part of the solution?

Interesting comment, PDX.  I have an old college roommate who was at Harvard B-School when the guy from Enron, I forget his name, who went to jail was in his class.  He always said that there is always a handful of students at B-School who are known to be so much smarter than everyone else.  In his class, that group had the belief that this Enron guy was so much smarter than they were. 

I got a feeling if this Enron guy was running the Twins they would be winning a lot more games than they are.  I gotta believe he is out of jail by now, isn't he?  Does anyone know?

[strumdatjag]

This is not the time to adjust the coaching staff.  That is in the off-season (unless the team gets to 3rd place or 5 games under .500). 

[Loops]

The problem is the Twin's basic philosophy on how to play. And maybe a good portion is the hitting coach. We are a "home run or bust" team. Which means a ton of strikeouts. If nobody gets on base it is hard to score runs. With the shift no longer allowed there are a lot of holes in the infield. Hard hit ground balls should be getting through. Our batting average, in fact all of MLB batting average, should be seeing an increase. Decent pitching is being wasted right now. Do I think we are an elite club? No. But we should be more competitive and that comes down to approach to the game.

[Sparky55]

What are they waiting for? Next time Kepler hits a HR trade him. 

[Woof Bronzer]

31 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

I don’t disagree with the moves, but I’ve got to ask… What do people think is the impact of replacing the hitting coach right now? I highly doubt it’s going to change the direction this team is heading. 

You're probably right, though I think there's something to be said about the optics of holding someone accountable for poor performance.  Among many other issues this team seems way to comfortable with losing.  

But let's be real, if Popkins does get canned he'll just be replaced by Popkins 2.0:  a young, cheap, inexperienced diamond in the rough who the FO will mold into a genius and who will uncritically carry out the FO's grip-it-and-rip-it philosophy.  

[Paul Walerius]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I think if you are expecting Wallner to outperform Kepler, you will probably be disappointed. 

I mean, I'm expecting to win the powerball. That'll happen at some point, right?

 

(I'm NOT saying to not ditch Kepler. It's been time for a while now. I just don't see Wallner being this massive upgrade, or even an upgrade.)

He couldn't be worse than Kepler, plus he isn't going to get better with AAA pitching.   

[Paul Walerius]

20 minutes ago, strumdatjag said:

This is not the time to adjust the coaching staff.  That is in the off-season (unless the team gets to 3rd place or 5 games under .500). 

This is exactly the time.   It isn't Rocco, who we could discuss deserving firing, but hitting isn't there.   They need to do something.   Not addressing it will mean 0-22 in POs

[Karbo]

I'd add getting rid of the big mistake, Gallo. That way you could call up Wallner and Larnach. Also, we keep hearing how bad Buxton's knee is. Its gotta be awfully hard to hit when you don't have both legs under you. And if I remember right, its his right knee, which would be his "push off" leg. If it is that bad put him on the IL and let it heal. Its not like he has been a difference maker this year, and that would free up another spot on the roster. Unless they turn it around, the coaching staff needs to go in the off season. I'd like to see a manager with some experience hired this time.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, JoeCool said:

These changes need to happen. I honestly would also cut bait with Gallo. 

Even if Wallner does not produce we need to see what we have with him and it can’t be any worse than Kepler.  

Popkins absolutely needs to go. Every single free agent addition has regressed from prior years and I don’t want to see him ruin Royce Lewis. It is so obvious that a change is needed. 

Honestly it is obvious even Rocco needs to go. His game decisions are worse than any manager the Twins have had and I sense even the much less talented Twins teams of the mid 1990’s could beat this team because of game management and missing basic fundamentals.  

While I don't disagree that it's probably time for Popkins to go, that bolded sentence is wrong. Gallo, Farmer, and MAT are hitting at basically their career norms/expectations with a slight dip from last year for Farmer and MAT, but within acceptable variance range. Vazquez has been much worse. Solano has been better than last year, and at about his norm since 2019. Castro is having the best year of his career, outside of 2020.

[Cory Engelhardt]

30 minutes ago, Paul Walerius said:

He couldn't be worse than Kepler, plus he isn't going to get better with AAA pitching.   

I mean, he very much could be worse.

[jorgenswest]

Wallner’s strike out rate is certain to be much higher than Kepler’s. I guess they can be really all in with strike outs. Maybe they let go of Kepler and Gallo while bringing up Wallner and Celestino. I think they need to balance out the strike outs so finding a way to get Miranda back up also would help.

Does the run scoring context in St. Paul really give us a misperception of performance? There are a bunch of players in St. Paul with strike out rates at 30% or greater but a good OPS due a power/walk approach. It works there in the higher run scoring environment. How well will those high strike out rates translate to the majors?

I do think context rate is important and the Twins need more balls in play. Celestino and Miranda put balls in play. The Twins need that balance between contact and the strike out laden power.

 

[Riverbrian]

1 minute ago, jorgenswest said:

Wallner’s strike out rate is certain to be much higher than Kepler’s. I guess they can be really all in with strike outs. Maybe they let go of Kepler and Gallo while bringing up Wallner and Celestino. I think they need to balance out the strike outs so finding a way to get Miranda back up also would help.

Does the run scoring context in St. Paul really give us a misperception of performance? There are a bunch of players in St. Paul with strike out rates at 30% or greater but a good OPS due a power/walk approach. It works there in the higher run scoring environment. How well will those high strike out rates translate to the majors?

I do think context rate is important and the Twins need more balls in play. Celestino and Miranda put balls in play. The Twins need that balance between contact and the strike out laden power.

 

I won't argue... we gotta bring the K's down. I'm throwing out names because I'm ready for the raffle drum. 

[Mike Sixel]

Wallner could be worse than Kepler, but we won't know if he doesn't play, putting them in a bad spot next off season...... You gotta find out this year.

[DJL44]

59 minutes ago, Loops said:

With the shift no longer allowed there are a lot of holes in the infield. Hard hit ground balls should be getting through. Our batting average, in fact all of MLB batting average, should be seeing an increase.

Sorry to disappoint you but MLB batting average has gone up just slightly from .243 in 2022 to .248 in 2023. That's a far cry from when the league hit .268 way back in 2007 (which includes pitchers hitting). Strikeouts are up 2022->23 from 8.4 per team per game to 8.6. The .706 league OPS from 2022 has increased to .729. Overall offense has barely budged back to 2021 levels.

Without the offseason changes to increase offense I'm pretty sure we would be >9Ks per team per game with league batting average below .240.