Ranking the Top 5 Worst Trades Under Derek Falvey and Thad Levine

[Cody Christie]

Every team makes bad trades, but some trades look even worse in retrospect. Here is a ranking of the five worst trades made by the current front office. 

 

Image courtesy of Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

MLB’s 2023 Trade Deadline is scheduled for August 1st, and the Twins will likely need to add pieces to keep themselves in contention. Before the deadline, looking at previous years and how this front office has approached the trading process is critical. This series will look at some of the best and worst trades made by the current front office. 

5. Luis Arraez for Pablo Lopez, Jose Salas, and Byron Chourio
Trade Date: January 20th, 2023
Many fans may view the Arraez for Lopez swap as a bad deal because of Arraez’s start to his Marlins tenure. However, the Twins wanted more starting pitching depth, and the Marlins wanted a hitter. Salas was the top prospect acquired by the Twins, and he started slowly in 2023. There is still time for the Twins to gain value from the Lopez-Arraez swap, but it’s hard not to imagine what Arraez could mean to Minnesota’s offense, which has struggled to make consistent contact. 

4. Prelander Berroa, Kai-Wei Teng, and Jaylin Davis for Sam Dyson
Trade Date: July 31st, 2019
Dyson was Minnesota’s key bullpen acquisition at the 2019 trade deadline, but poor performance and injury marred his Twins tenure. In 12 appearances (11 1/3 innings), he allowed nine earned runs with a 1.77 WHIP and 2.4 HR/9. Dyson eventually revealed that he had been pitching with some discomfort, and the Twins investigated what the Giants knew about the injury before the trade. There was no evidence that San Francisco had any knowledge of an injury. Dyson hasn’t pitched since his last appearance for the Twins, and MLB suspended him for the entire 2021 season for violating the league’s domestic violence policy. Overall, it was a bad trade from start to finish for the Twins. 

3. Juan Nunez, Cade Povich, Juan Rojas, and Yennier Cano for Jorge Lopez
Trade Date: August 2, 2022
Last season, Lopez was an All-Star in his first year as a reliever, and he was supposed to be the missing piece from the Twins’ bullpen. Following the trade, he posted a 4.37 ERA with a 1.63 WHIP and an 18-to-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 22 2/3 innings. His 2023 season started strongly as he didn’t allow an earned run in the first month, but his on-field performance declined in recent weeks, and the team put him on the IL to work on his mental health. Yennier Cano has been one of the AL’s best relievers this season, while Cade Povich has pitched well and is on the cusp of making his big-league debut. This trade has looked bad so far and might only look worse in the future.   

2. Taylor Rogers and Brent Rooker for Chris Paddack, Emilio Pagan, and Brayan Medina
Trade Date: April 7th, 2022
The timing of this trade will always be questionable. On the eve of Opening Day, the Twins shipped out their best late-inning reliever to the Padres in a five-person trade. Rogers was entering his final year of team control, and there was some value in the return package. Chris Paddack pitched well in five starts for the Twins, but he eventually needed Tommy John surgery. Emilio Pagan has been one of baseball’s worst relievers since the trade while posting a -1.60 WPA. Rogers and Rooker provided little value to the Padres, but it will always seem odd that the club made this move close to Opening Day. 

1. Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and Steve Hajjar for Tyler Mahle
Trade Date: August 2nd, 2022
Interestingly, one of Minnesota’s best trades has been with the Reds organization, and their worst trade has been with the same club. Evaluating players is tough, and the Twins knew they were surrendering significant value to acquire a top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher. Mahle struggled to stay healthy and was limited to nine starts with the Twins. He underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this summer. Spencer Steer started slowly for the Reds but has turned a corner and looks like an above-average big leaguer. Christian Encarnacion-Strand has been dominating Triple-A pitching and is on pace to make his debut later this season. This trade will only look worse in the coming years. 

Check out the Twins Daily forums for more trade discussion from the current front office. How would you rank the above-listed trades? Would you have different trades on the list? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[Five minute major]

Great article.  This FO is criminally inept leading a manager who is criminally inept.  They both owe their current employment status to the baseball gods who have them in the pathetic Al Central and a fan base that is perfectly acceptable with mediocrity.  

[Twins GFP]

Way to early to make a "bad trade" decision on some of these.  I find it interesting that there is very little on the players the Twins traded away.  Arraez has been insane, Cano needed a change of scenery, Steer has been good, every other player mentioned in this article moved by the Twins has done nothing.

#5 is a current loss, but Lopez has been decent, and nobody expected Arraez to hit .400.  Considering Lopez just signed a long-term contract, this trade needs time to properly evaluate.

#4 is more or of a tie.  Lose/lose on both sides.

#3 is closer to a loss, but still needs a longer view to see the results.

#2 another tie that needs more time.  Rogers was awful last year, Rooker is imminently replaceable.  Need to see if/how Paddock comes back.

#1  Steer has had a nice start, but we need to see if it continues.  Also need to see if/how Mahle comes back
 

[Brett]

4 of the 5 trades were in the last 15 months, which makes it tough to compete now.

It would be great to revisit this topic in another year or two to see if we all feel differently.

[Boom Boom]

17 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

#1  Steer has had a nice start, but we need to see if it continues.  Also need to see if/how Mahle comes back
 

Mahle is a free agent at the end of this season and is out with TJ surgery, so the Twins have already reaped all the benefits they are going to get from this trade.

If Mahle makes a comeback with the Twins, it wouldn't change the fact that this was a bad trade. 

[gunnarthor]

Not sure I'd put some of these in the worst category. Again, like the best, you need to take a few things into account. I think the Jamie Garcia experience - giving up Ynoa for him in a "win-now" trade and then trading him to NY for future pieces a week later showed that the FO just didn't have a clue. Add in the Kintzler trade - where the FO essentially gave up on the season while the players went on to make the playoffs - cemented that the new FO had no idea what it had or what it was doing.

Trading for Dyson made sense so I don't blame them for that one as much UNLESS they didn't do their due diligence on his injury (which may have been a repeated issue in the Mahle trade).

My main problem, well, not my main problem, but a problem with this FO is that they don't seem to know where they stand/what they have. We add Gray but don't reinforce the rest of the pitching staff so we give Petty and have a losing season. We panic, and try to bolster the problem a year later and lose Steer and Arraez (among others) but don't have a plan to fix the struggling offense. It's like the FO wants to dip its toe in the water but never commits, one way or the other. 

[roger]

Will agree that the Mahle trade turned out to be the worst, however, that is due to injury and lack of getting anything from Mahle.  Don't know whether or not the Twins should have had a better idea that could be the result.  

Will agree with Fire Dan that this would be a better read if you had included more information on what those players traded by the Twins have done since the trade.  On the surface I would say the Dyson trade maybe should be #1.  But if those players send out have not returned anything to the Giants, it is a wash and maybe shouldn't even be in the worst five.

Overall, several of these may work out ok for the Twins over the long haul, thus, maybe shouldn't be rated in the five worst.  

[LastOnePicked]

Here's what's scary - trades 1, 3 and 5 have the potential of looking considerably worse than they do right now. If Arraez wins MVP trophies and leads Miami deep into the playoffs, this is a trade that can (and should) break a front office.

[LastOnePicked]

22 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

It's like the FO wants to dip its toe in the water but never commits, one way or the other.

Agreed. They constantly appear overmatched for the decision at hand. They have way too much patience with gaps, then realize they're in some sort of hole and then make panicked moves that backfire. 

[nicksaviking]

More likely than not, #2-4 are going to be the kinds of trades where you don't regret giving up the prospects, but you wonder who you could have gotten instead. Ugh, Sam Dyson and that stupid sinker with the Twins awful infield defense that year? That should have been enough to give them zero interest even without knowing his injury or off field issues. But they felt they had to make SOME move that year.

#5 could end up bad, but it's way too early. Probably years away, but we've all seen Arraez's second have regression to the mean before so it's even possible that one swings back into the win column by the end of the year. Not that it has to be a win. If the Twins traded Mark Grace for Charles Nagy, that wouldn't be the worst move in the world (no idea why I pulled those names out of my butt).

#1 Yeah, gross. Steer's first three months have already topped any possible return the Twins could get. I have a hard time complaining about this one though as I was all on board getting Mahle here and thought (think) CEH's strikeouts wouldn't translate to the MLB level and the Twins had multiple prospects who'd make rostering Steer redundant. I really liked Steer though, and would gladly have him as a building block.

[mikelink45]

Yes. Good article. Good reflection. Maybe the result will change over time, but right now I think you got the list correct. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

And see, I do every one of these trades at the time of the deal. Even now, arguably other than the Arraez for Lopez et al deal, I'm not certain they really lost anything otherwise that will come back to haunt them.

[Road trip]

Um... Ryan Pressley says hello.

LaMont Wade was given away.  He'd be handy to have about now.

The return on Jose Berrios may end up being a zero as well, although it is too soon to know.

[Nashvilletwin]

1 hour ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Way to early to make a "bad trade" decision on some of these.  I find it interesting that there is very little on the players the Twins traded away.  Arraez has been insane, Cano needed a change of scenery, Steer has been good, every other player mentioned in this article moved by the Twins has done nothing.

#5 is a current loss, but Lopez has been decent, and nobody expected Arraez to hit .400.  Considering Lopez just signed a long-term contract, this trade needs time to properly evaluate.

#4 is more or of a tie.  Lose/lose on both sides.

#3 is closer to a loss, but still needs a longer view to see the results.

#2 another tie that needs more time.  Rogers was awful last year, Rooker is imminently replaceable.  Need to see if/how Paddock comes back.

#1  Steer has had a nice start, but we need to see if it continues.  Also need to see if/how Mahle comes back
 

Good comments - couple of responses:

#5. This team badly needs Arraez for many reasons. Might not have predicted 0.400, but 0.350 for sure. If he stays healthy, he’s an all-star more years than not. Lopez is a solid #3 starter with stretches as a #2 and #4. That is not a good deal.  But what makes it worse is that the FO compounded their stupidity by forcing this trade after the Mahle disaster (and their inability to develop trustworthy in house starters).

#4. Disagree.  Dyson was supposed to be a key short term cog for a late season pennant run.  It doesn’t matter that the moonshots the Giants got didn’t eventually pan out. What matters is we got less than nothing out of Dyson.

#3. Disagree. See Dyson above. Lopez did little last year and, although we are cheering hard for him, we might not get much more in the future. Baltimore sold high; we sold our assets low.

#2. Agree with your assessment more or less. But did the trade of Rooker precipitate the ridiculous signing of Gallo in even a small way? Probably not, but if it did, this trade looks worse.

#1.  No way to sugar coat this disaster.  Not only was it ill conceived, but the results are horrible.  Also,  Mahle’s complete lack of reliability entering the season was the primary factor for the FO feeling the need to replace him and ditch Arraez in doing so (as they doubled down on starter strength coupled home run production as the key planks of the ‘23 campaign).

 

 

[Vanimal46]

5 minutes ago, Road trip said:

Um... Ryan Pressley says hello.

LaMont Wade was given away.  He'd be handy to have about now.

The return on Jose Berrios may end up being a zero as well, although it is too soon to know.

Pressly will always stick out to me as a bad trade at the time and still a bad trade 5 years later.

To be fair, let’s evaluate the trade that was made the day of, and not include his extension years. Astros got 1.5 years of control with Pressly. During that time, Pressly in 76 appearances generated 3 bWAR, an ERA+ well over 200, FIP in the low 2’s.

Meanwhile for the Twins, Jorge Alcala has 0.6 bWAR and mostly injured the last two seasons. Gilberto Celestino has 0.1 bWAR, whose development time has been sacrificed because we didn’t have another useful CF on roster. 

[Vanimal46]

Give the Mahle trade time to cook, and it could end up being an all time bad trade in team history. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

13 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Give the Mahle trade time to cook, and it could end up being an all time bad trade in team history. 

I'd be SHOCKED

[TwinsDr2021]

2 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

Here's what's scary - trades 1, 3 and 5 have the potential of looking considerably worse than they do right now. If Arraez wins MVP trophies and leads Miami deep into the playoffs, this is a trade that can (and should) break a front office.

I will go out on a limb and say Arraez doesn't ever win a MVP, he is basically hitting .400 and kind of is an after thought in the MVP race (he just doesn't have the power), I mean is he even the best 2B in the National league right now?

#1 will be bad no matter what the other players do and #5 is way too early to decide on.

 

[CharlieDee]

I think I'm gonna be sick...

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, Road trip said:

Um... Ryan Pressley says hello.

LaMont Wade was given away.  He'd be handy to have about now.

The return on Jose Berrios may end up being a zero as well, although it is too soon to know.

How the Pressly and Berrios trades don't make the list is beyond my comprehension.

Both still could end up well, but as of now, they basically got 4 minor league players. Don't care how good Martin, Celestino, SWR and Alcala could be (I mean I do and hope they are) but as of now they haven't been good.

[Brandon]

I don’t think the Arreaz trade is as bad as it’s been talked about here.  Pablo Lopez haz pitched solid and signed an extension.  What makes the Arreaz trade look so bad is that our offense has cratered while Arreaz has taken off.  But Solano has been a poor man’s Arreaz with over .370 OBP.  So his main skill set has mostly been replaced by a capable player.  The bigger problem is how bad the rest of the offense has been.  

[LewFordLives]

Thanks (or no thanks) for the article. I do take issue with calling Mahle a "top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher". He never was. He had one decent season. 

[weitz41]

I'm happy to take the heat I may deserve it but I want to argue against a few of the trades being bad ones...

Pablo for Arraez. I get the huffing and puffing about it. Today I watched Kirilloff get a single followed by a Vazquez walk and then 3 K's. How is an amazing hitter like Arraez going to fix a team wide failure? An Arraez single that drives in a run is very unlikely to offset 5 innings who? of Chris Archer. VERY UNLIKELY...MLB network is already talking about how much $ he should make when he's a FA..

Dyson, is a given but is that something the FO can find out before the trade? Seems dicey to me. Sure, it definitely is a bad trade in hindsight. At the time it was a fair trade. The Twins didn't really part with anyone to bring Dyson onboard.

Lopez...No argument here. Didn't like this trade then and REALLY don't like it now. 3 months total of great pitching in 2-4 seasons is a recipe for overpaying, and that is what happeneds..

10 time out of 10 I'd trade Roger's and Rooker for Paddack, Pagan and Medina. A set up guy and a guy you probably have to cut for three lottery tickets. There aren't too many FO's that would do that trade. if any..

And finally, the elephant in the room. Yes, definitely the Twins lost on this (Mahle) trade. No agruement here..It was a gamble from the start and the Twins are paying for it now. Not unlike the Rays trading Ryan for Cruz. We and they gave up depth for immediate returns. The Rays are MUCH better positioned to have an oops. We are definitely not. 

2 of 5 definitely bad or terrible. 

2 of 5 meh....bad to OK, IDK

1 of 5 I disagree. I may and probably am wrong.  I'll take 140-180 quality pitched innings over a .300- .350 BA with no power 7 days a week.

[Nashvilletwin]

2 hours ago, weitz41 said:

1 of 5 I disagree. I may and probably am wrong.  I'll take 140-180 quality pitched innings over a .300- .350 BA with no power 7 days a week.

Ok, you can have the #3 starter pitching 140-180 IPs with a 4+ era pitching every five days and I’ll take the every day lead off hitter getting on base at 0.450, never striking out, winning a batting championship, an all - star and the heart of the team.  It’s easy enough to find the first - heck. Ober and Varland might have accomplished that this year or could next year.  The second is virtually a unicorn for a team and franchise like the Twins. But hey, that’s why there is a trade market - because GMs, like us, have different opinions about what’s valuable. Btw, how are the Marlins doing this year?

[FlyingFinn]

7 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

More likely than not, #2-4 are going to be the kinds of trades where you don't regret giving up the prospects, but you wonder who you could have gotten instead.

Exactly. I don't think the Padres are claiming the Rogers trade as their 2nd best trade in the past 5 years. 4.35 ERA, removed as the closer and traded. And Rooker had 7 AB's with them. 

Also, I'm not sure we wouldn't have lost Steer (or someone else that we pulled off, or didn't put on, the 40 man roster) in the Rule 5 draft anyway. 

Don't make me GM. I would have made trade #'s 1, 3 and 5 at the time of the trade.

[Linus]

I would add the Pressly trade for sure. We gave up a year and a half of a scarce commodity for essentially nothing. I think the Berrios trade is going to end badly. Should have kept him for another year and a half and gotten a comp pick. My prediction is that neither SWR or Martin do much in the big leagues. 

[weitz41]

10 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Ok, you can have the #3 starter pitching 140-180 IPs with a 4+ era pitching every five days and I’ll take the every day lead off hitter getting on base at 0.450, never striking out, winning a batting championship, an all - star and the heart of the team.  It’s easy enough to find the first - heck. Ober and Varland might have accomplished that this year or could next year.  The second is virtually a unicorn for a team and franchise like the Twins. But hey, that’s why there is a trade market - because GMs, like us, have different opinions about what’s valuable. Btw, how are the Marlins doing this year?

A batting order of Arraez, Correa, Buxton, Gallo and Kepler isn't going to produce that many more runs than putting Juilien or a healthy Polanco in his place. IMO. An example from yesterday's game. Kirilloff gets a leadoff base hit, Vazquez walks. the next three strike out. inning over...With RISP Arraez would definitely make the team a lot better at that. I just don't believe 1 player would fix this offense.

Lopez has pitched well enough to give the team a chance to win most of his games. How many starters could you say that about the past couple seasons?

The Marlins have Arraez, Soler, De La Cruz and Sanchez all playing well and hitting for average. We have none of that.

[Nashvilletwin]

38 minutes ago, weitz41 said:

A batting order of Arraez, Correa, Buxton, Gallo and Kepler isn't going to produce that many more runs than putting Juilien or a healthy Polanco in his place. IMO. An example from yesterday's game. Kirilloff gets a leadoff base hit, Vazquez walks. the next three strike out. inning over...With RISP Arraez would definitely make the team a lot better at that. I just don't believe 1 player would fix this offense.

Lopez has pitched well enough to give the team a chance to win most of his games. How many starters could you say that about the past couple seasons?

The Marlins have Arraez, Soler, De La Cruz and Sanchez all playing well and hitting for average. We have none of that.

Ok, we’d have a trade then. You can take two games under 0.500 with the outcome of the trade and our current lineup and I’ll take whatever is behind door #2 with Arraez batting lead off every day like the Marlins.  
 

It’s what makes the world go around.  👍🏻

[Johnny Ringo]

Not trading Kepler for that Starbucks coupon was their worst (non) trade.

The Arraez trade over time will be fine. I love Louie but he is a singles hitting DH with bad legs. That ages like three day old fish.

The Mahle trade is a Hall of Fame stinker.  Falvey is just fortunate that it happened in the same year as the Gobert swap.   

[joefish]

18 hours ago, CharlieDee said:

I think I'm gonna be sick...

Keep that line moving...