Reevaluating the Value in the Pablo Lopez for Luis Arraez Trade

Arraez is the prize.  I take him over Lopez any day.  

But as the all-star voting moves forward and I see on the Athletic the addition of Rooker and Raley to the all-star team I have to wonder about our player evaluations.  When we grab a guy like Sabato are we just looking for big swings and don't care about misses.  Because Luis is the complete opposite of that style and I loved it.  

We are a team that needs base hits.  I watched the Rays hit long and short.  A player gets on and they move him around and home while we fill the bases and strike out.  We need something to change.  Correa and Buxton are not leading us to the promised land and Gallo replacing Luis in the lineup is not goint to do it.  

I even miss Luis' smile. 

Only time will tell who will provide more long term value. At the time of the trade, Luis was easily my favorite Twins player. For that reason, I was against trading him away.  But I'm old school,and I like singles hitters who rarely strike out.  And I still hate that we traded him.

At the time I believed that this trade made the 2023 team worse particularly for the regular season. I still would do the trade. Pitching is expensive. Investing in pitching is risky but necessary. Starting pitching becomes more valuable and essential in the playoffs.

This was on the athletic and I had to share it.  As they said, it is a work of art.  Luis Arraez spray chart. 

Ok, I’ll take the bait.

First, I completely understand the rationale behind the trade. The FO understood how high the risks were re Mahle and Maeda being able to accumulate IPs, let alone quality IPs.  Unable, and rightfully so, to be willing to trust in a few up and comer SPs, and realizing that with an offensively challenged lineup predicating a pitching led strategy for the campaign, they felt the need to add an innings eating quality starter.  Got it. Perfectly reasonable. Check.

Second, the issue is whether this was the right trade for personnel, strategy, and fan support reasons.  On this front, I’d argue no on all three.

A. Lopez prior to the trade had been a solid, yet unspectacular performer. Chourio has a better chance to see a major league park in the field than Salas (and even that’s huge leap). We all know about Arraez. It’s ok if some people, myself included, did not like the trade on face value. Was this the only option for a quality starter of that ilk? Maybe, but who knows,

B. Given our offensive woes, and the inability of our starting staff and bullpen to overcome them, the loss of Arraez as an everyday fixture at the top of the lineup is devastating. That’s, right, devastating.  Arraez at first, Kiriloff in the OF, and cash to help fund an additional SP beats Gallo hands down all day long.

C. Many fellow TDers, and I respect their position, argue that fans are not interested in watching a “singles” hitter. I disagree.  Arraez was a fan favorite.  He brought a spark, which this club do badly needs, to the park each and every day.  He remains an exciting player and was the only Twin whose every AB I made sure to watch.  In a season in which none of our position players can even spell All Star, he’s a shoo in for the NL squad. If he keeps up his pace (and he probably won’t, but a batting title seems assured), do my fellow TDers think fans will be interested?

Of course the genesis of the the Arraez trade was the Mahle trade disaster. The inability of Mahle to play his projected role led to the need to acquire another starter late in the off season (precluding us for possibly playing in the FA market). In addition, even if we still wanted to acquire another starter, who’s to say a package including Steer, CES and possibly others could have been utilised instead of Arraez.

The FO had excellent intentions and a defensible strategy for both deals, one precipitated by the other.  One definitively hasn’t worked and the other, well, we shall see.  But this club and fan base clearly miss Arraez.

I agree with several points mentioned here.  It's too early to judge this trade.  Arraez does have defensive limitations and his knees may again act up this year and in coming years.  Pablo does need to be closer to a #2 than a #3 or #4.

I was in favor of the trade at the time because we needed pitching and I thought that the young kids would pick up the slack for Arraez, but the fact is that they have not done that.

I know all the hard core BB fans love all these advanced stats and have talked down batting average as an old time unimportant stat and I do see some validity in those points.  That said, this is an entertainment industry and frankly I would rather watch Luis get hits (and maybe/probably be left on base) than watch strike outs from many of our 3-outcome hitters.  How many fans have said that watching this team, with all their strikeouts is painful and that they love watching Arraez's enthusiasm and at-bats for the pure entertainment of them.  I am one of those types of watchers and definitely miss watching Luis this year.

I hope the trade works out for our team and for the Marlins, but so far it has been tough to stomach.

I've very much enjoyed this site for years; however the shift from fair criticism to a more generally positive view on everything that this front office does (despite all results, and awful style of play) has gone too far. This was an awful trade that was a reflection on their philosophy. Arraez will be hitting for years to come, and (if Pablo continues to pitch like he has the last 365 days) we will be stuck into a Nolasco-esque contract.

Much ink has been spilled about where he would play. His bat plays anywhere. "bUt hIs DefENSe" I see people say (influenced, no doubt, by those covering the team who may or may not be granted better access with more positive coverage) but just know that last year his total runs saved ranked #1 in the league at 1st. This year his total runs saved (#1) and range factor (#5) is more than satisfactory.

This brand of baseball is hard to watch, and at the least it would be much easier to watch with someone in the lineup everyday who's getting on base at a .451 clip (particularly when the "best" by far of our regulars gets on base at a .359 clip).

I'm not sure where the hate towards his defense is coming from either? From what I see on baseball reference he's been a plus defender at second and neutral at first? Sure 4 defensive runs saved isn't incredible but would be a career best for Polanco or Dozier before him? The best defensive season in the last ~11 years at second and a plus DRS doesn't scream bad defense to me 

Lopez has pitched 71.1 innings while not great, some have been, where would those innings come from without him? I agree with @gunnarthorthis was done because in 6 years here this FO didn't produce the promised pipeline. Going into this year Ryan was the only starter "developed" and that is if you believe they developed him and didn't just trade for a major league ready pitcher developed by the Rays. In the 7th year Ober and Varland look like two guys that were developed and added to the rotation. Still going into next year it would be Ryan, Varland and Ober, with the possibility of re-signing Gray, that is still one starter short with none in the pipeline to fill in. So while it sucks losing Arraez, it was him or Lewis that was going to need to be traded to fill the rotation.

Another would of, could of, should of article about Arraez.  Great for him that he is hitting .400 at this point of the year.  Let's not forget when this trade was made, we had no position for Arraez in the lineup on the defensive side.  

He was not going to play 1st with Kiriloff & Gallo there.

He was not going to play 2nd with Polanco

He was not going to play 3rd with Miranda being the heir apparent and how did that work out for us?  Great, Farmer held serve until Lewis was ready.  

He wasn't going to be DH, because FO already promised Buxton to that role due to his always broken, never 100% body.

So, one .400 guy isn't changing this offense for one simple reason, we would need 5 other guys to hit behind him consistently.  We don't have that.  We have 8 other guys who swing the bat. We rarely move guys over, hit behind guys, protect with 2 strikes kind of guys.  

Arraez isn't a base stealer, doesn't have great power but can pop one out every once in a blue moon.  

Pitching has put us in the position we are in to date this year and I don't think Arraez gives us but 1 or 2 more wins to our total and that is a maybe.  Happy for him, but he isn't here, so time to move on.

I get it..but the timing of this article will induce negative responses no matter how good, bad or average Lopez has been.  Yes, Arraez's bat is special and should have a long shelf life. Outside of one of the two prospects being at least a quality MLB player or a Cy Young season from Lopez most will hate this trade.

Arraez's is still one of my favorite players in all of MLB. I'll stop to watch his at bat no matter what jersey he wares. I still would do this trade. Arraez's arbitration salary is going to skyrocket in the next two seasons and an extension when you have Juilien, Martin, Lewis, Kirilloff, Lee, Miranda, Correa and possibly Polanco likely to fill the entire IF the next two seasons makes little sense.

There is a strong argument against the trade as well. I just agree more with the for then the against.

I'm usually quick to fault the FO, but I actually applauded this trade. I guess I had assumed (perhaps wrongly) that Arraez was injury-prone (he had some bad knee issues here) and that Lopez was on the cusp of becoming a #1 starter.

I should have remembered that these Twins can't develop or sustain a top starter, and that the injury bug seems to hit harder here than elsewhere. Maybe it's a team's energy or mojo or collective spark or who knows what. It's depressing (though I am happy for Luis). 

We'll see where all this goes. If it ends like this - with Arraez reaching the fabled .400 and Lopez regressing to an iffy #4 starter - this will go down as yet another great FO blunder. Perhaps their last one here?

2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Rooker and Raley to the all-star team

I will go out on a limb and say neither of these two ever make an all star game.

2 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

Perhaps their last one here?

Well if they don't win a playoff game this year, I sure hope it is.

I was hugely against this trade when it was made & still am. Unless Lopez becomes the second coming of Kershaw in his prime, I'll remain against it. 

I said it when the trade was made - who in this lineup is going to get on base? There was a lot of groaning last year about "solo home runs" & this trade just made that worse. The Twins aren't scoring, they aren't moving guys over, they don't seem to understand situational hitting, on & on. Then the FO trades the one guy who does all these things well. Guess what? The offense suffers. 

I'm glad we have Lopez. Wish they could have found another way to bring him on board. 

I regretted the trade when it was made and continue to regret it now. It's hard to root for the Twins.

2 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Seriously? There wouldn't have been room?? 

Arraez wouldn't play 1st because of Kirilloff and Gallo? Kirilloff has proven nothing, and started the year on the DL. Gallo gets in nobody's way. How about RF for Gallo?

Polanco started on the DL. Miranda stood in his way??

DH? Unless they had decided Buxton was the full time DH in January--meaning the Correa is the Buxton whisperer stories are BS--they had lots of DH ABs available. 

I mean, it's fair to justify the cost of acquiring Lopez. That's one thing.

It's another to pretend the Twins dealt a spare part. They gave away somewhere between their best and third best hitter. He'd be in their lineup every day except for injury, and would have been from day one. Someone else would sit, not Arraez.

I mean, in the same post you're arguing Arraez wasn't good enough to make the lineup AND he wouldn't help because the rest of the lineup is so bad.

Doesnt compute.

 

Commentary on Arraez at the time of the trade was he didn't have an everyday position on defense, So yes, still stand by he wasn't a guaranteed starter on defense with the guys that I mentioned.  Bad knees, didn't have great range with the ban on shift positioning.  Doesn't mean he isn't a great bat to have but he isn't the cog that we were going to be successful with.  He lead the AL in batting last year and where did that get us?  Didn't win the division, didn't make the playoffs.  He is good, not questioning that.  We needed pitching and we made the deal.  

Right, wrong or indifferent - he was viewed as a spare part by FO with young guys on the horizon that are deemed to be better.  

One could argue on Arraez did we get enough impact value in the trade?  Lopez in April, yes seemed so.  2 young guys in minors, TBD.