Dodgers 7, Twins 3: Wasted Opportunities, Pagán Meltdown Cost Minnesota the Series

[Thiéres Rabelo]

In a game that saw both starting pitchers leave the game early, the Twins came from behind twice and had the lead in the seventh, but the offense failed to capitalize with runners in scoring position, and 2022 Emilio Pagán came in and gave up the lead late.

Image courtesy of Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Box Score
Starting Pitcher: Sonny Gray, 4.0 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 4 K (84 pitches, 54 strikes, 64.3%)
Home Runs: Byron Buxton (9), Joey Gallo (10)
Bottom 3 WPA: Emilio Pagán (-.631), Donovan Solano (-.113), Jorge Polanco (-.071)
Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

Both starters have to leave the game early
Sonny Gray did a solid job keeping the Dodgers lineup on a leash early on, allowing just two runs through four innings. But that was no simple task. Right out of the gate, Los Angeles applied some serious pressure on the Twins’ early-season Cy Young hopeful, loading the bases with only one out in the bottom of the first. Though the home team came out of the inning empty-handed, they didn’t stop pushing.

After a quick 1-2-3 second, Los Angeles was threatening again in the third. Mookie Betts hit a leadoff triple on a flyball off the wall that looked playable (but probably wasn't), but Nick Gordon couldn’t make the play in the right-center field gap. Betts was pushed across by a Freddie Freeman sac-fly that scored the game’s first run. Gray managed to finish the inning having allowed just the one run, but not before giving up a single and a walk and reaching 62 pitches.

Dodgers starter Dustin May breezed through the top of the Twins lineup in the first with 16 pitches, but he immediately left the game after that first frame with elbow pain. Still, even with his departure, Minnesota’s offense couldn’t get rolling, collecting only a pair of singles through three. It was only in the fourth that the Twins got on the board after a Byron Buxton solo home run to deep center.

Gray gave up a leadoff single in the fourth to James Outman, who stole second merely minutes later. The Twins’ starter retired the next two batters, but he couldn’t prevail against Betts, who slapped a single to center to bring Outman home and regain the lead for the Dodgers. Freeman singled next to put pressure on Gray, but Sonny got Will Smith to ground out and end the inning. With yet another inning with more than twenty pitches, Gray was pulled from the game.

Twins tie it, take the lead, but waste huge opportunities
The offense couldn’t get anything going against reliever Dylan Covey, who completed four after delivering a scoreless fifth. But that would change in the sixth: Joey Gallo jumped on the second pitch of the at-bat to crush a low sinker for a leadoff home run to center, tying the game at 2-2. Apparently, that home run was all the Twins needed to crack Covey. Following Gallo’s at-bat, Alex Kirilloff and Carlos Correa hit back-to-back singles, followed by a Buxton walk to load the bases with no outs. The Dodgers brought reliever Victor González into the game and retired the side against the middle of Minnesota’s lineup. The Twins are now 0-for-7 in the year with the bases loaded and no outs.

After Jovani Morán and José De León combined to pitch two scoreless frames, the Twins were once again threatening on offense in the top of the seventh. Willi Castro and Christian Vázquez hit back-to-back singles to open the inning, immediately putting lefty reliever Caleb Ferguson in a jam. During a solid Kirilloff ten-pitch at-bat, Castro took off from second to steal third, causing Ferguson to make a throwing error. The ball got away, allowing Castro to score and give the Twins the lead and Vázquez to reach third. Despite the fight, Kirilloff ended up striking out, and Correa grounded out against former Twin Brusdar Graterol, stranding Vázquez at third.

Pagán has one of his worst outings as a Twin
Then came the seventh inning. De León remained in the game, trying to preserve the one-run lead. He did a fantastic job by striking out Betts and Freeman on only six pitches, but he couldn’t retire Smith and Max Muncy, who hit back-to-back singles. Rocco Baldelli decided to bring Emilio Pagán into the game to get the final out, and the rest is history.

Failing to throw strikes, Pagán gave up a six-pitch walk to Jason Heyward that loaded the bases. His command issues continued, and Miguel Vargas drew another walk next to tie the game at 3-3 and keep the bases juiced. Then, on the very first pitch he threw in the following at-bat, James Outman crushed a grand slam to center, making it 7-3 Dodgers and putting the game out of reach.

Injury update
Three Twins players left the game due to injuries. Here's an update on their status by The Athletic's Dan Hayes:

What’s Next?
The Twins remain in Greater Los Angeles, where after a day off on Thursday, they’ll visit the Angels in Anaheim for a three-game weekend series. Game one of the series is scheduled for 8:38 pm CDT on Friday (5/19), with Joe Ryan (6-1, 2.16 ERA) taking the mound for Minnesota. The Angels’ starting pitcher has yet to be determined.

Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

	SAT	SUN	MON	TUE	WED	TOT
Morán	24	0	0	25	15	64
Pagán	0	23	18	0	14	55
Sands	54	0	0	0	0	54
Stewart	0	0	28	17	0	45
López	0	9	26	0	0	35
De León	0	0	0	0	28	28
Jax	0	0	13	11	0	24
Durán	0	0	18	0	0	18

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[PDX Twin]

Good teams find ways to win. Bad teams find ways to lose.

The Twins are a bad team with a lot of good players.

[Schmoeman5]

3 minutes ago, PDX Twin said:

Good teams find ways to win. Bad teams find ways to lose.

The Twins are a bad team with a lot of good players.

If the Twins are a bad team with a lot of good players as you've stated, then what is needed to turn them into a good team? Because I agree that they have the talent. 

[LastOnePicked]

There's still way too much 2022 in this 2023 team to make me a believer. Lotta games ahead, but there have been a lot - and I mean a lot - of squandered opportunities for wins already. You don't get those back.

[Nine of twelve]

Sometimes you're the pigeon, sometimes you're the statue. On Monday Cuzzi was the pigeon and the Twins were the statue. Today the Dodgers were the pigeon and Pagan was the statue.

[GNess]

I am not seeing what the Twins FO/Management sees in Pagan? Clearly, they have enough performance data over the last season and 1/4 to know he is simply not consistently effective in pressure (high leverage) situations. 

 

[stringer bell]

A lot to chew on after this game.

1) Bases loaded, no outs ends up with nothing. Jorge Polanco, pinch hitter Donovan Solano and Kyle Farmer can't get any runs in. 

2) Epic meltdown by Emilio Pagan. First and second, two outs, bottom of the order and he allowed two walks and a grand slam. The walks killed and set up the slam.

3) Gordon and Gallo both left the game after fouling balls off their foot/leg. Polanco also left the game shortly after popping out in the sixth. 

4) Still recovering from the 12-inning game on Monday, the Twins used callup Jose De Leon and Emilio Pagan in game situations. De Leon deserved a better fate, Pagan did not. 

5) I'm speculating that roster moves are imminent. I wouldn't be surprised if any of Gallo/Gordon/Polanco are put on the Injured List. Kyle Garlick might figure short-term with two left handed starters pitching for the Angels in Anaheim. Julien for Polanco if Jorge is back on the IL. Perhaps adjustments in the pitching staff are due. I've thought Pagan should go for a while. As I said in the game thread, I haven't been saying it as loud or as often since he "wore it" in Boston. 

[hitterscount]

The wasted opportunities with runners in scoring position has cost them at least 7-8 games. They are terrible at scoring with runners on 3rd and less than 2 outs. They refuse/can't advance runners from second with no outs.... the top of the top of the 7th provided another great opportunity to build on the 3-2 lead, even a run that late in the game provides some cushion, but their lack of execution and inability to hit with runners on base cost them again. Lot of time to right the ship however. The BP has really been bad the last 5-6 weeks. Will need an arm or two before the trade deadline if they want to make a strong showing in the playoffs... yes they will win the Central this year and win a playoff game breaking the 0-18 skid. . 

[stringer bell]

14 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

There's still way too much 2022 in this 2023 team to make me a believer. Lotta games ahead, but there have been a lot - and I mean a lot - of squandered opportunities for wins already. You don't get those back.

Strange numbers regarding hitting with runners on base so far this year. The Twins have been good with runners in scoring position, but beyond bad in the subset of bases loaded. Close and late has been poor as well. Some of this is small sample size and the numbers will regress to the mean, but it is almost a mental thing now with the sacks juiced.

[Vanimal46]

Injury update after the game 

[I wish the twins were good]

25 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

If the Twins are a bad team with a lot of good players as you've stated, then what is needed to turn them into a good team? Because I agree that they have the talent. 

Cut Pagan, Moran and Alcala to minors, Stewart, De Leon, Headrick in those roles for now, aim for big relief arms at the deadline, but keep the revolving door revolving until then. Finding someone better than Solano to take that role should be doable. 10000 rakes is great but need to know when to cut bait.

[Beast]

I’ve had it with this FO and the bullpen.  Just awful.

[I wish the twins were good]

22 minutes ago, Nine of twelve said:

Sometimes you're the pigeon, sometimes you're the statue. On Monday Cuzzi was the pigeon and the Twins were the statue. Today the Dodgers were the pigeon and Pagan was the statue.

If there is any poetry in the world, Cuzzi will be reborn as a futbol referee in South America. They believe in accountability there!

[LA Vikes Fan]

4 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Injury update after the game 

Ugly for Gordon. Out for awhile. Interesting to see if they 10 day Polanco. Kepler out until 5/25(?). Still too early for Lewis (?). Garlick up for Gordon.

[PDX Twin]

28 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

If the Twins are a bad team with a lot of good players as you've stated, then what is needed to turn them into a good team? Because I agree that they have the talent. 

My amateur opinion is that we need better "man management." Rocco is supposed to be a good "players' manager," but the sense I have of his style is that he never pushes them or makes demands. That's good when it works, but sometimes the "Oh, well. You did your best," approach leaves a lot on the table. 

I doubt that Tom Kelly ever hesitated to call his players out when they underperformed. Some players need that. The Twins' stars seem too complacent. Maybe Rocco gives them hell sometimes, but you never hear about it or see it in his interviews.
 

[tony&rodney]

The Twins do need to get some runs in with the bases loaded and too many walks will hurt any pitcher. 

However, the gloom today should not forget the giddiness of the prior night. The Twins are fine. The have some decent players, they have been working hard to have good at bats and pitch well. Sometimes baseball is really hard. The talent level is unreal. Consider that the best SEC players often start in  A ball and that D1 baseball teams are basically pretty close to very good town ball teams and the rookie leagues.

There are wins for the Twins just around the corner and they have competed well with some of the best teams in MLB.

[stringer bell]

21 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Injury update after the game 

Fractured shin? I haven't heard of that injury in baseball ever, I think. That sounds like a long recovery, maybe 60-day IL (just a guess). I think Castro is up to stay at least until Gordon returns. Kyle Garlick makes the most sense to me as a replacement especially since the Angels start two left handers on Friday and Saturday. 

I quickly googled "shin fracture" and the number that came up for recovery was 4-6 months. 

[VivaBomboRivera!]

Well, decidedly _not_ the pitching duel we were anticipating. 🤨

The dogs in the street have known for some time now that for all the raw ability in his arm, Emilio Pagan is somehow unable to package himself into an MLB reliever, even with sympathetic coaching. They are baffled, however, at Twins management's persistence in pursuing what nearly everyone else admits is a failed experiment.  🤔

To be fair to Pagan, his 2-1 pitch to Heyward on the high outside corner _could_ have been called a strike (and thus ended the inning a pitch later).  The brutal truth is that umpires are not going to give any breaks to someone as inconsistent as he is, certainly not in Dodger Stadium.

The jury is still out on the Twins inconsistent offense.  Bring on the Angels. 

[Eephus]

The Polanco and Solano at bats today with the bases loaded should be in hitting textbooks across the land. Did he even throw a strike that inning until Farmer flied out? I'm no expert and those guys are both decent hitters but to quote Buck Showalter, "Ya gotta control your want to." I think back to Randy Dobnak pitching against the Yankees in the playoffs and he kept throwing breaking pitches a few inches out of the zone that Tigers and Royals and lesser teams chased all year long. And the Yankees just watched them. Remember thinking that if the Yankees don't chase and we do we've got no chance. Simple concept but obviously hard to execute. 

[stringer bell]

Reading the Twitter responses about the injuries, a solid majority want Lewis recalled and he can't be activated until May 30 or something like that. I believe it is 60 days from Opening Day and that would be May 29. His rehab can run until June 1.

If they IL Polanco, I have to believe Edouard Julien would be recalled. 

[adjacent]

44 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Ugly for Gordon. Out for awhile. Interesting to see if they 10 day Polanco. Kepler out until 5/25(?). Still too early for Lewis (?). Garlick up for Gordon.

Most probably Julien for Polanco, if needed. I hope Gallo just needs 1 or 2 days off. Garlick or Wallner for Gordon

[Brazilian Twins Fan]

To insist in the same process and expect different results is the stupidity assumption.

Cut Pagan and move Correa over 7th on the lineup. Management keeps proving their own futility. 

[Fat Calvin]

1 hour ago, Schmoeman5 said:

If the Twins are a bad team with a lot of good players as you've stated, then what is needed to turn them into a good team? Because I agree that they have the talent. 

A new manager.

[Nashvilletwin]

12 minutes ago, adjacent said:

Most probably Julien for Polanco, if needed. I hope Gallo just needs 1 or 2 days off. Garlick or Wallner for Gordon

Please be Wallner….

[chinmusic]

37 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I quickly googled "shin fracture" and the number that came up for recovery was 4-6 months. 

And amazingly, he finished the at bat.

Well, maybe the diagnosis and recovery time prove inaccurate.

[cHawk]

Losses like these genuinely anger me.

[h2oface]

Wasted ink over and over for Pagan. Never should have been resigned. But yet, people waste time advocating for it. Take that stuff and ................ Baldelli just has to go to Pagan. Pagan, Lopez, and Duran had a day off yesterday. Of the three, Pagan had 41 pitches thrown the last 3 days, Lopez 35, and Duran 18. Did he not see De Leon strike Betts and Freeman out on 6 pitches? You need 7 outs with the one run lead. And there is a day off tomorrow. And Baldelli choses the worst pitcher of the bunch with the most pitches (more than double Duran's) to hold the lead with 2 on. 

Gordon wasn't hurt when he lazily let that ball drop for a triple, was he? La de da maybe I will get there nope I guess not where did it go anyway.......

[stringer bell]

25 minutes ago, adjacent said:

Most probably Julien for Polanco, if needed. I hope Gallo just needs 1 or 2 days off. Garlick or Wallner for Gordon

 

12 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Please be Wallner….

If Gallo doesn't miss any time, there still wouldn't be any place for Wallner to play. With Kepler probably due to be activated on the 23rd, it would be a short-term stay on the active list. 

[David Maro]

This loss is on Rocco,putting Pagan in that situation has been a problem since he came to the team. Outman saw like everyone that he had nothing but his fastball. Jumped on it,very first pitch. De Leon didn't deserve this loss. Bases loaded with no outs and wasted at bats. Pitcher didn't throw but 1 strike in a dozen pitches. Now going to play the Angels with a banged up team. Maybe time to send Correa to a eye doctor. Tired of watching him swing at pitches a foot off the plate. Must be asking Sano hitting advice.

[h2oface]

1 minute ago, David Maro said:

This loss is on Rocco,putting Pagan in that situation has been a problem since he came to the team. Outman saw like everyone that he had nothing but his fastball. Jumped on it,very first pitch. De Leon didn't deserve this loss. Bases loaded with no outs and wasted at bats. Pitcher didn't throw but 1 strike in a dozen pitches. Now going to play the Angels with a banged up team. Maybe time to send Correa to a eye doctor. Tired of watching him swing at pitches a foot off the plate. Must be asking Sano hitting advice.

But he is a vet and has that great baseball IQ and knows how to get ready for the season. Baldelli keeps telling us that.