The Twins' Next 15 Games Will Make or Break Their Season

After getting run over by the San Diego Padres and the Athletics, it's fair to wonder if the Minnesota Twins' playoff hopes are already dead. On the other hand, the next 15 games give this team one real shot to turn the ship around, and how they play over that stretch will decide the rest of their season. As it stands, the Twins sit 6.5 games out of the division and four games back of the third wild card spot. FanGraphs Playoff Odds gives them less than a 5% chance of winning the division and roughly a 10% chance of making the playoffs overall. Not great numbers, but not impossible ones either, especially with the schedule ahead.

Each of the next 15 games comes against divisional opponents: six against the Chicago White Sox, six against the Detroit Tigers, and three against the Cleveland Guardians. Beyond that, the Twins close the season with a three-game set against the Texas Rangers, and depending on how the next month shakes out, that series could turn into a de facto play-in for the third wild card spot. Without getting ahead of ourselves, let's break down what the Twins are working with over these next 15 games.

Chicago White Sox

The Twins open this stretch on the road against the division-leading White Sox, and Chicago's calling card all season has been its offense. Since August 1st, the White Sox have the third-best wRC+ in all of baseball. The problem is the pitching hasn't kept pace, and that's why a team with this much thump is still playing .500 ball since August 1st. Their rotation has been shaky all year, and while they added Luis Castillo at the trade deadline to try to stabilize things, his 5.89 ERA (5.37 FIP) with the White Sox leaves more to be desired. The bullpen has been a bit more reliable, posting a 3.83 ERA over the same timeframe.

Looking at their schedule beyond the Twins series, the White Sox also have games against the Houston Astros and the Detroit Tigers, along with softer matchups against the Kansas City Royals, Colorado Rockies, St. Louis Cardinals, and Pittsburgh Pirates. Not only are they in the driver's seat, but their relatively soft schedule makes the chances of a four week collapse almost zilch. These six games against the Twins represent a real chance for Chicago to put them away for good.

Detroit Tigers

The Tigers sit just a game and a half behind the Twins, so on paper they look like part of this race too. Detroit sold off hard at the deadline, moving their top two frontline starters, yet those moves haven't slowed them down much, as they are just three games below .500 in August. The offense hasn't been effective, the bullpen has been unreliable all year, and I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop on this club. If the Twins are serious about making a push, going something like 5-1 against Detroit is close to what they need. Unlike the White Sox, the Tigers’ schedule isn't favorable, with three games against the Los Angeles Dodgers, four against the Cleveland Guardians, and six against the Twins over the next two weeks. By the time this stretch wraps up, I'd expect Detroit's season to be effectively over right alongside (or ahead of) the Twins' fading hopes, if they can't take advantage.

Cleveland Guardians

Cleveland is one of the teams the Twins need to jump, whether it's in the division race or the wild card chase. They only get three cracks at them the rest of the way, making every one of those games matter. This isn't your typical Guardians team, though. They can hit, especially after trade deadline acquisitions Jo Adell and Nathaniel Lowe being inserted into their lineup. Prior to the deadline they were one of the least productive units in baseball, yet in the month of August they've been top 5 in all of baseball. On the mound, they have solid starters and relievers who have posted a 3.78 ERA (4.34 FIP) as a group. Yet, they find themselves just one game above .500 despite a favorable August schedule.

The bad news for Minnesota is that Cleveland's remaining schedule is soft. Outside of the three games against the Twins, the Guardians get six against the Royals, three against the Tigers, three against the Orioles, and three against the Athletics. That's an easy runway, and it means the Twins can't count on Cleveland stumbling elsewhere. They have to make their dent in that head-to-head series.

The margin for error is basically gone. Realistically, the Twins need to win at least two of every three games across this stretch just to stay afloat. If they can go 10-5 or better against these three divisional opponents, that still won't hand them the driver's seat, but it keeps the season alive heading into the final weeks. The Twins don't control their own destiny, but they still control how hard they fight for the next two weeks.