Reviewing the Tyler Mahle Trade

[Cody Christie]

The Twins would likely redo the Tyler Mahle trade if given the opportunity. As the 2023 season begins, Minnesota still hopes to gain some value from this trade.

Image courtesy of Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

The Minnesota Twins front office did something fans have wanted for years. The team was in first place with some holes on the roster, and the club traded for a frontline starting pitcher and a high-leverage bullpen arm. It takes significant prospect capital to acquire these types of players, and many national outlets praised the Twins' aggressive approach at the deadline. However, Twins fans are starting to have buyer's remorse when following the prospects that were part of the Tyler Mahle trade.

Twins Perspective
The Twins thought they were trading for one and a half seasons of Mahle. That likely meant he'd provide the team with roughly 45 starts, but that number has likely dropped to 35 starts if he stays healthy for 2023. Shoulder issues limited him to four starts with Minnesota following the trade, and he has only made more than 30 starts in one big-league season. There is hope that his performance will improve with more innings outside Great American Ballpark, known for surrendering home runs. His fastball is critical to his success, and things could have gone better for him at spring training. 

Mahle had a rough spring. He allowed nine earned runs in five games (13 2/3 innings), including three home runs and 23 hits. He did post a 12-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio, but all eyes will be on the radar gun during his starts. His fastball was in the 89-93 mph range In his second-to-last spring start, but he improved to 92-94 mph in his last start. Mahle is in his last year of team control, so he is heading to free agency for the first time. He will want to prove that he is healthy, and that will allow him to sign a lucrative free-agent deal next winter. 

Reds Perspective
The Twins knew they were surrendering nearly big-league-ready prospects, and that has come to fruition so far this spring. Spencer Steer earned the Reds starting third base job in his age-25 season. During spring training, he hit .271/.364/.500 (.864) with five doubles and two home runs in 18 games. Defensively, he struggled at third with four errors in his first 12 games this spring. Steer made his big-league debut in September 2022 and played in 28 games. His first taste of the majors had some struggles, as he posted a 72 OPS+ and a 26-to-11 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Through his first four games in 2023, he went 4-for-12 with a home run and four walks. The Reds hope he can continue to improve on defense while locking him into third base for multiple years. 

Christian Encarnacion-Strand was the other prospect sent to the Reds for Mahle, and MLB.com currently ranks him as the organization's seventh-best prospect. Last season, he hit .304/.368/.587 (.955) in 122 games between High-A and Double-A. During spring training, he put up impressive offensive numbers by going 15-for-26 (.577) with a 1.748 OPS. The start of his Triple-A career will be delayed because he suffered a slight disc herniation in his back. The Reds hope he can return to full-time action by the end of April. Like Steer, he will likely become a regular for the Reds in the years ahead. 

Steer and Encarnacion-Strand have provided the Reds with negative value at the big-league level, so giving this trade some time to see the full value for both teams is essential. Mahle has a chance to be one of the Twins' best pitchers this season, which will help the club get back to the top of the AL Central. Both prospects look poised to help the Reds in 2023, but there are no guarantees when it comes to young players transitioning to the big-league level. Mahle still has a chance to be a stud, and the Twins hope he can provide tremendous value in 2023. 

How would you grade this trade in hindsight? Will Steer and Encarnacion-Strand become above-average regulars at the big-league level? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[Cory Moen]

I think this is a trade that could end up decent for both sides! I wouldn’t be shocked, if he’s healthy, to see the Twins re-sign Mahle. Promising first start. I hope he builds off it to be the guy they hoped he would be when they acquired him! 

[Mike Sixel]

Great trade. Doesn't mean it will work out, but great trade. This team needed another good pitcher at the break. It was him, Castillo (who would have cost Lewis and Lee and two more good to very good guys) or Montas. That was it. Only those three were dealt.

[Mydaughterhastwins]

Hate to put it this way but, it doesn't really matter.  It was a business decision and once you pull the trigger on these things there really is no looking back.  Good luck to the former Twins prospects but frankly they are of no concern.  Making a run in the 23 playoffs is the goal and Mahle gives the Twins a real chance to do so.

[miracleb]

It is more than a business decision.  If Steer and Encarcion are studs an Mahle is gone next year,.....this is a disaster for our front office and they are another step to being let go.   I still look back at Akil Baddoo being exposed to the Rule-5 draft.  So far so good on that move!

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, miracleb said:

It is more than a business decision.  If Steer and Encarcion are studs an Mahle is gone next year,.....this is a disaster for our front office and they are another step to being let go.   I still look back at Akil Baddoo being exposed to the Rule-5 draft.  So far so good on that move!

So they should not have traded for a starter last year? It isn't a disaster if he's gone. It just isn't. 

[Squirrel]

5 minutes ago, miracleb said:

It is more than a business decision.  If Steer and Encarcion are studs an Mahle is gone next year,.....this is a disaster for our front office and they are another step to being let go.   I still look back at Akil Baddoo being exposed to the Rule-5 draft.  So far so good on that move!

I disagree. We needed a starter last year. That's what the trade was about. Unfortunately it didn't work out last year, but if Mahle contributes to a winning season this year, we got what we traded for. I get that down the road it could be lopsided, if the ifs pan out, but at the time of the trade, it's what we needed. And I'm glad we didn't trade for the other two Mike mentioned.

[weitz41]

Seems like a win win trade to me. If Mahle has a good season and gets a qualifying offer from the Twins. Whether he takes it or not I would lean the Twins way.

[DJL44]

7 minutes ago, miracleb said:

It is more than a business decision.  If Steer and Encarcion are studs an Mahle is gone next year,.....this is a disaster for our front office and they are another step to being let go.   I still look back at Akil Baddoo being exposed to the Rule-5 draft.  So far so good on that move!

Well, a year later neither of Steer or Encarnacion-Strand looks like a stud. If Mahle is gone next year he'll have turned down an extension and probably a qualifying offer which would net the Twins a compensatory draft pick.

[Danchat]

Let’s not forget the Reds also netted Steven Hajjar in the trade… it seems to me that they’ll need to extend Mahle if they want to get enough value out of this trade. If they lose Mahle over the winter, I think the trade is going to age poorly.

[KirbyHawk75]

Not near as bad as the Gobert trade.  

[GKuehl]

If Buxton continues to need consistent time at DH over the next 5 years, losing CES won’t hurt too bad, considering he’s likely to be a negative in the field, even at 1B.

Although both Steer and CES will likely be good regulars at the MLB level, our farm system is full of near-MLB ready prospects like Julien, Lee, Lewis, and Martin that made Steer and CES particularly expendable. 

[Rosterman]

It could still be a major win for the Twins if he stays healthy and pitches well enough to be tradebait. Mahle is still young. Has deent stuff. The Twins could easily replace him mid-season with any number of rotation candidates (Ober for sure).

What they could get in return? Probably not three prospects, but some system depth and promising player/s.

Steer was ready, but not sure how he fit into the Twins plans with an abundance of infielders in the system that MAY not play the infield going forwards (Lewis, Martin) as well as possible landing places for Julien, Lee and Salas.

Strand was interesting. Good bat, showing power. Could also play the field. A DH with a glove, at times. Or maybe the next Michael Restovich.

 

[Mike Sixel]

24 minutes ago, Rosterman said:

It could still be a major win for the Twins if he stays healthy and pitches well enough to be tradebait. Mahle is still young. Has deent stuff. The Twins could easily replace him mid-season with any number of rotation candidates (Ober for sure).

What they could get in return? Probably not three prospects, but some system depth and promising player/s.

Steer was ready, but not sure how he fit into the Twins plans with an abundance of infielders in the system that MAY not play the infield going forwards (Lewis, Martin) as well as possible landing places for Julien, Lee and Salas.

Strand was interesting. Good bat, showing power. Could also play the field. A DH with a glove, at times. Or maybe the next Michael Restovich.

 

They aren't trading good veterans if they are in the playoff hunt. I have no idea why people keep suggesting this.

[chpettit19]

59 minutes ago, miracleb said:

It is more than a business decision.  If Steer and Encarcion are studs an Mahle is gone next year,.....this is a disaster for our front office and they are another step to being let go.   I still look back at Akil Baddoo being exposed to the Rule-5 draft.  So far so good on that move!

Is the Baddoo part of this sarcasm? He was unplayable last year in the majors (65 OPS+), and didn't make the Tigers opening day roster this year. A Tigers team that everyone thinks is going to be terrible, and is looking for any infusion of talent they can find decided he wasn't good enough to be on the team.

As for this trade, the chances of Steer and Strand being studs is incredibly small. Could they both be major leaguers? Of course. Could they both be major league regulars? Totally possible. But the chances they're both studs is miniscule. This is just the cost of doing business in baseball. You pay possible future value for current value. Especially when that possible future value isn't even your top possible future value.

Steer wasn't taking the 3B job in Minneapolis over Miranda. Or the 2B job over Polanco, Julien, or Lee/Lewis. Strand doesn't belong anywhere near the field defensively at this point, and wasn't taking the DH job in Minneapolis over Buxton, Kirilloff, Larnach, et al. For Strand to be a stud he has to be Nelson Cruz. I'll take the under on that bet.

Hajjar has the possibility to be the one who hurts losing depending how things play out with him in Cleveland and the arms the Twins still have. But the 2 bats they traded likely wouldn't even make the 26-man roster on any of the next 3 opening days. Trading guys who weren't going to be amongst your 13 opening day bats for a guy who can be an above average pitcher is a good trade 100% of the time.

[Dman]

Most deadline trades are not designed to be "won" by the team who needs the MLB ready player. You are over paying to get something\someone you hope can be a major difference maker for your team at the exact moment in time you need that type of player.  The Twins were OK losing that trade if Mahle could help get them to the post season.  All trades involve risk and as we well know not all trades work out as hoped, Still I think it was a worthy gamble for the Twins.

Honestly there wasn't really all that much room for Steer in the infield and while I absolutely fell in love with CES's bat he is likely a DH only type player so he will have to be an elite bat for losing him to hurt. I feel like Hajjar is a pen arm but I also think he could be an elite pen arm.  I am sure the Reds would have liked Povich instead but you knew they were going to want a pitcher in return for giving up a pitcher.  Have to wait and see how Hajjar turns out as arms always have a long way to go, but right now it doesn't feel like the Twins lost players they couldn't live without. FWIW Steer was the only top 10 prospect they lost in the deal and they had surplus players for the spots he would play.

Unfortunately Mahle gave us next to nothing last year but if he has a good year this year maybe the Twins can extend him or at the very least maybe they give him a QO and he nets them a supplemental 1st round pick to get some prospect value back.  If you go straight up WAR I think the Reds are gonna win this one big time but what the Twins gave up is what has to happen if you want a difference maker deadline addition.  We see these same types of deals every deadline.  If you can't live with what the Twins gave up then you should never suggest trading at the deadline.  Lot's of analysts thought the return was a little light for the Reds since technically they didn't even get a top 100 prospect back (although Steer was close). IMO the FO did about as well as they could to try and net an arm they desperately needed to try and save the season.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Why in the world would the Twins take back the trade? Steer and Encarnacion Strand don't have a place here with the Twins, and Mahle (when healthy) is a #2 starter. He certainly looked it last night. 

When the Twins have a playoff rotation that includes Lopez, Mahle and Ryan, would you still take back the trade of a couple prospects we don't have space for?

[miller761]

Most deadline trades do not grade out well for the team acquiring the major league talent (in this case Mahle). It is a risk the acquiring team makes to get them into playoffs and win a championship. Sometimes they work great and sometimes not so good. I applaud the front office for taking the chance and also for their moves this off season. They are trying any way possible to get this team to win the division and go far in the playoffs. The FO traded from its surplus knowing they other good players coming who may even be better that the ones they traded away.

[mikelink45]

This is an article that is best written at the all-star break.  4 games into the season is not a time to judge anyone or any trade.  Let's see how health plays out and if he stays with us as the young players mature in Cin.  

[gunnarthor]

The trade made sense on paper but it didn't work out (yet). Hopefully, he gives us a strong season and a playoff win or two. 

[Karbo]

I just don't see how the players that got traded away would have found a place on our MLB roster. There are just too many guys rated ahead of them. As has been pointed out worse case is Mahle walking away and Twins get a high draft pick.

[Doctor Gast]

I agree w/ most texts, it's a win/ win for everybody. CES & Steer were blocked & would never play MLB here but now Steer starts & CES will soon. Mahle has a chance to be on a contender. Reds & Twins got what they wanted. IMO this didn't do their due diligence as w/ Pagan& Paddack but if Mahle pitches like he's capable of, it'll be OK. We could extend him and or like Karbo said we'd get a good draft pick out of him. It didn't turned out the way we wanted it because of all the injuries. But it could be worth it if the injuries are better managed & we win at least a post season game & get the monkey off our backs this year.

[Twinsrtheworst]

4 hours ago, miracleb said:

It is more than a business decision.  If Steer and Encarcion are studs an Mahle is gone next year,.....this is a disaster for our front office and they are another step to being let go.   I still look back at Akil Baddoo being exposed to the Rule-5 draft.  So far so good on that move!

What would you rather have down?  Sit on our hands and do nothing?

[jorgenswest]

My guess is most teams trading for a good starting pitch at the deadline lose value in the long run. Castillo, Montas and Mahle were the top starters moved at the deadline. They all might be losses in the long run. The Twins didn’t have to give up their best prospects or prospects at key positions to get Mahle. Steer and Encarnacion are corner players with promising bats and marginal fielding value. Should they have a need for that type of player in the long run they will be able to find them.

I would make the same type of trade for starting pitching whenever they have a need and are buyers at the deadline.

[jkcarew]

It comes down to...how many good-bat, poor-glove infielders does an organization need? The Twins are still sitting on Miranda and Julien...plus a guy (Lewis) who figures to be average+ defensively. Meanwhile, looks like the Reds have already given up on the idea of CES being anything other than a first-baseman, which will mitigate his value.

You trade from a position of strength/depth/redundancy...and that what the Twins did. It can always be the case that the prospects you decided to trade from that area of depth end up being the wrong choices. We'll see. But it was a righteous move at the time, and I can't see how one would regret it already at this point in time.

[Melissa]

Odd timing with this story, posted after Mahle’s first start, but written as though that hadn’t yet happened. Maybe the draft article could have been updated with a bit more positivity after Monday’s game??

[a-wan]

Good teams accumulate fungible assets to use to improve themselves. Unfortunately Mahle was the 2nd best available pitched last year, fortunately the Twins had redundant pieces to give up.

Not going to think or worry about Strand or Steer.

[twinstalker]

14 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

...So far it looks like a pretty good trade for both sides...

Holy cow, so far it looks like one of the Twins' worst trades ever.  They've gotten exactly nothing so far for two guys who look like productive major leaguers, one now, one probably later in the year.  Nothing is going to win this trade for the Twins, you just hope Mahle can provide some help they wouldn't otherwise have toward making the playoffs.  So far...he's provided nothing extra, and there's an extreme injury worry.

[nclahammer]

TBD...to be determined.  Intitial look somewhat favors Reds.

[Doctor Wu]

As others have suggested, maybe the time to re-visit this trade is later in the season. At that point, hopefully Mahle is starting regularly and pitching well. And for the Reds, Steer looks like a solid starter at third and when CES is healthy he might come up and start mashing like he did in spring training. Or not. Way too early to tell. But I liked the trade when it was made and I still like it. The Twins absolutely needed another strong arm in the rotation and they got one, and got it without dealing any of their more highly coveted prospects. Could be a win-win for both teams and that's great.