One Position May Hold the Key to the Twins Offense

[Cody Christie]

The Twins have added depth at multiple positions on the roster, but trading Luis Arraez leaves a hole to fill. One position might be the key to the Twins' line-up firing on all cylinders during the 2023 campaign.

Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn, USA Today Sports

Not all fans approved of the Twins trading Luis Arraez for Pablo Lopez. Arraez was a fan favorite, and there are multiple reasons the club was willing to part with the reigning AL Batting Champion. He has yet to have a true defensive home and doesn't fit the profile of a slugging first baseman. Minnesota has other options at first base in 2023, which might be the most pivotal position on the roster. 

Presumed Starter
Alex Kirilloff returns from a unique off-season surgery where doctors shortened his ulna bone. He has dealt with wrist issues over the last two seasons, and this surgery was the best way to solve these problems. This surgery has shown success with the general population, but there have been few professional athletes to undergo this procedure. There is no guarantee Kirilloff will return to his previous form, but all reports from the Twins have him on track to complete a regular spring training. 

Projection systems defer in what to expect from Kirilloff in 2023. During his big-league career, Kirilloff hasn't been healthy, which impacts how projections view his potential contributions. ZiPS has Kirilloff hitting .250/.310/.401 (.711) while accumulating 0.9 WAR in 82 games (332 PA). Baseball-Reference projects him to post a .708 OPS in 301 PA. The Twins are hoping to get more than half a season from Kirilloff, so their internal projections are likely higher for his output during the upcoming season. 

Other First Base Options
Minnesota can use Joey Gallo at first base, but he provides much of his value with Gold Glove-caliber outfield defense. He can likely be a strong defender at first, but the Twins' best defensive alignment has him in a corner outfield spot. Gallo has played over 745 innings at first base in his career, but most of those innings came in 2017 or earlier. His offensive profile fits at first base, so he is a fallback option if Kirilloff misses time in 2023. 

Jose Miranda got time at first last season, but the Twins want him to be the club's everyday third baseman. He has never been considered a strong defender at third, so first base might be his eventual long-term position. Rocco Baldelli can undoubtedly use a line-up that includes Kyle Farmer at third base with Miranda sliding over to the other corner infield spot. Farmer and Christian Vazquez have played over 100 innings at first base so that they can be emergency options.

Offensive Potential
Fans may forget that Kirilloff was considered one of baseball's top prospects throughout his professional career. All three major national rankings had him among their top 100 prospects for three consecutive seasons (2019-21), with Baseball America and MLB.com ranking him in the top 15 entering the 2019 season. He was the 2018 TD Minor League Hitter of the Year after he hit .348/.392/.578 (.970) with 44 doubles, seven triples, and 20 home runs in 130 games. Kirilloff can still be that type of hitter if his latest wrist surgery proves successful. 

Minnesota saw flashes of the offensive wunderkind when they sent Kirilloff to St. Paul during the 2022 season. He was struggling to fight through his wrist injury with the Twins, and the club wanted him to rediscover his swing in an environment more suitable for working on mechanical adjustments. He dominated in 35 games by hitting .359/.465/.641 (1.106) with seven doubles and ten home runs. His hot hitting didn't follow him back to the Twins, and he was eventually shut down because of his wrist. 

The Twins' best line-up against a right-handed starter has Alex Kirilloff at first base with an outfield of Joey Gallo (LF), Byron Buxton (CF), and Max Kepler (RF). If Kirilloff isn't deemed ready, the Twins can move Gallo to first and have one of the other young outfielders (Trevor Larnach or Matt Wallner) take his place in a corner outfield spot. Minnesota focused on improving the club's outfield defense this winter, so they may avoid using players that struggle more on the defensive side. 

If Kirilloff is healthy, Minnesota's line-up is strong at nearly every position, with depth waiting in the wings. The Twins will need to be ready to pivot to other first-base options like Gallo or Miranda if Kirilloff has any setbacks. How important is first base to the Twins line-up this season? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

 

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[tony&rodney]

No doubt, the Twins are counting on Alex Kirilloff to step into a starting role at first base and hit. I don't think Arraez is traded if AK was not going to be ready this season. Like many, I am looking for a big season from Kirilloff. He is a key answer for both first base and the middle of the lineup.

[GNess]

Good take - agreed Kirilloff producing and holding down 1B could be central to a successful season.

[Riverbrian]

An above average Kirilloff would be huge. 

[CRF]

Sure would be nice if he was finally healthy and we could see what he's capable of. 

[sun]

If Kirilloff's choice is between having manageable pain and unmanageable pain again this year, then he could end up becoming just another part time player on the roster similar to Buck with his tendonitis. We can only hope that any promotion is not being rushed before he's allowed maximum time to fully recover.

Another big question for this year would be even if his pain remains manageable, could it still negatively affect his hitting and by how much? We probably won't know until he starts swinging the bat somewhere again even if that's in AAA because he's missed so much playing time. Kirilloff will probably need to have an excellent spring training before being awarded the 1B position. And how will Rocco manage him from there, by giving him extra days off or by making him a part time DH? Those are some questions that need to be considered if Kirilloff is to become the everyday starter at 1B. Otherwise he could end up being just another platoon player with unrealistic expectations by the fans, but with an excuse if he doesn't deliver.

[Elliot]

I agree that Kiriloff is a key to the Twins 2023 offense. A healthy version is probably a powerful middle of the order bat, as well as an above average defensive presence. A continuation of the wrist issues probably effectively ends his career. 

If he is healthy, then the Gallo/Miranda backup idea is good. An occasional fill-in at 1B is probably a good thing for both in terms of future roles and versatility. However, in the case of a major problem for AK, I would prefer some other option as a full time solution. My suggestion for that scenario is a player already on the roster, Jorge Polanco. Although this might seem like a return to the issue that was there with Arraez, I do believe it is different.  Polanco is not the contact hitter that Arraez is (nobody is), but he is a much more complete hitter who better fits the corner inf profile. 20 to 30 home runs and a high RBI total is a reasonable expectation for a healthy Polanco. Defensively, who knows? Arraez became a border-line GG at 1B in what was essentially a trial by fire. Can Polanco do the same; maybe. He is an average 2B who should be able to handle the switch, especially if he is given some reps in ST. The important similarity with Arraez is ongoing leg problems, something that hopefully could be helped by a switch to a less demanding spot.

The real key to this option is not Polanco, but the potential replacements at 2B. The safe bets are Farmer and Gordon, both relatively proven players with some limited upside, but fairly established floors. Defensively Farmer may be an upgrade but Gordon's SSS leaves some questions. The downside being that either becoming a regular lessens the utility player pool. The young unproven options with considerable upside potential are Julien and Lewis (already on the 40 man) and Lee and Martin who are not yet on the 40 man, or even at AAA, but could be ready early or mid year. Since 3 of the 4 young options are probably not really available until June or so, this really opens the door for Julien to grab an opportunity to break camp with the big team if Kiriloff struggles health wise.

I am definitely hoping that Kiriloff is able to make it back and have a long productive career. He seems to have star potential aplenty. However, for the sake of all of the names above I think it would be wise to start the Polanco experiment sooner rather than later.

[Nashvilletwin]

5 minutes ago, Elliot said:

I agree that Kiriloff is a key to the Twins 2023 offense. A healthy version is probably a powerful middle of the order bat, as well as an above average defensive presence. A continuation of the wrist issues probably effectively ends his career. 

If he is healthy, then the Gallo/Miranda backup idea is good. An occasional fill-in at 1B is probably a good thing for both in terms of future roles and versatility. However, in the case of a major problem for AK, I would prefer some other option as a full time solution. My suggestion for that scenario is a player already on the roster, Jorge Polanco. Although this might seem like a return to the issue that was there with Arraez, I do believe it is different.  Polanco is not the contact hitter that Arraez is (nobody is), but he is a much more complete hitter who better fits the corner inf profile. 20 to 30 home runs and a high RBI total is a reasonable expectation for a healthy Polanco. Defensively, who knows? Arraez became a border-line GG at 1B in what was essentially a trial by fire. Can Polanco do the same; maybe. He is an average 2B who should be able to handle the switch, especially if he is given some reps in ST. The important similarity with Arraez is ongoing leg problems, something that hopefully could be helped by a switch to a less demanding spot.

The real key to this option is not Polanco, but the potential replacements at 2B. The safe bets are Farmer and Gordon, both relatively proven players with some limited upside, but fairly established floors. Defensively Farmer may be an upgrade but Gordon's SSS leaves some questions. The downside being that either becoming a regular lessens the utility player pool. The young unproven options with considerable upside potential are Julien and Lewis (already on the 40 man) and Lee and Martin who are not yet on the 40 man, or even at AAA, but could be ready early or mid year. Since 3 of the 4 young options are probably not really available until June or so, this really opens the door for Julien to grab an opportunity to break camp with the big team if Kiriloff struggles health wise.

I am definitely hoping that Kiriloff is able to make it back and have a long productive career. He seems to have star potential aplenty. However, for the sake of all of the names above I think it would be wise to start the Polanco experiment sooner rather than later.

Really interesting take - Polanco at 1B if Kiriloff is a no go.

At the moment, even if Kiriloff can make it back, Miranda should get lots of frames at 1B.  If Miranda ends up being a more dependable, higher producing player than Kiriloff this season, then next year when Lee, Lewis and Julien show up, Miranda would be the everyday 1B and Kiriloff (with Kepler and Gallo gone) would be a corner OF (with some combo of Larnach, Gordon, Wallner and Martin), backup 1B, and DH.

I literally cannot believe we are going to be starting an OF of Gallo, Kepler and Taylor (when Buxton is inevitably out). Yes, the defense is there in spades, but what a snooze fest at the plate.  And all essentially one year rentals.

Back to Polanco.  I actually think his year at the plate is going to be the key to the Twin’s offense this season. How Polanco goes is how this team will go..

[dxpavelka]

Kind of funny.  Seems like our biggest concerns are first base and right handed bats and yet a right handed hitting first baseman who averaged 42 home runs per 162 games as a Twin from 2019 thru 2021 remains unemployed.  Can't make it up. 

[hitterscount]

Totally agree it's do or die time for Kirloff.  If he is injured again or underwhelms it is time to move on. The issue is there really isn't a good option to fall back on. Not thrilled with the thought of Gallo or Miranda as the everyday 1st base option.  

 

 

[DocBauer]

Don't sleep on Julien playing some 1B this year. 

[Doctor Gast]

It'd be nice to have Kirloff back & at 1B. But if he delays to make it back it's not the end of the world either. We have a lot of players with experience there where their bats will play in the line-up (many you mentioned). Arraez came up from AA, Julien completed AA, a good ST he could be ready to jump into the 1B position if need be.

[ToddlerHarmon]

17 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

Don't sleep on Julien playing some 1B this year. 

Yep, this is what I am thinking if Kirilloff cannot perform.

My other thought is don't sacrifice good, or even adequate, defense elsewhere to make your next first baseman. So yes to Julien. But no to Gallo, Larnach, Lewis, or Lee. As for Miranda or Polanco, you need to have a replacement (Lewis) with *better* defense to make it make sense.

Can anyone tell me where Wallner would fit? Too good a defender to sacrifice to first base, or a possible option that doesnt cost you elsewhere?

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Kind of funny.  Seems like our biggest concerns are first base and right handed bats and yet a right handed hitting first baseman who averaged 42 home runs per 162 games as a Twin from 2019 thru 2021 remains unemployed.  Can't make it up. 

It's not 2019 or 2020 or 2021 anymore.  And 29 other teams have seen it the same way up to this point, concerning Miguel Sanó.

[dxpavelka]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

It's not 2019 or 2020 or 2021 anymore.  And 29 other teams have seen it the same way up to this point, concerning Miguel Sanó.

You're right.  It's not.  In 2019 with Sano in the lineup the Twins scored 939 runs.  In 2022 the scored 696.  What have they done to add offensive for 2023?  Is trading Kepler (likely for pitching and / or prospects) gonna make help the production at 1st base or make the lineup more right handed?  I like the current front office and on field coaching staff but sometimes it just feels like their direction come from reading this website.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[ashbury]

34 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

You're right.  It's not.  In 2019 with Sano in the lineup the Twins scored 939 runs.  In 2022 the scored 696.  What have they done to add offensive for 2023?  Is trading Kepler (likely for pitching and / or prospects) gonna make help the production at 1st base or make the lineup more right handed?  I like the current front office and on field coaching staff but sometimes it just feels like their direction come from reading this website.

Bringing back the present incarnation of Miguel, which your previous post advocated, does nothing to solve any of this.

[DocBauer]

2 hours ago, ToddlerHarmon said:

Yep, this is what I am thinking if Kirilloff cannot perform.

My other thought is don't sacrifice good, or even adequate, defense elsewhere to make your next first baseman. So yes to Julien. But no to Gallo, Larnach, Lewis, or Lee. As for Miranda or Polanco, you need to have a replacement (Lewis) with *better* defense to make it make sense.

Can anyone tell me where Wallner would fit? Too good a defender to sacrifice to first base, or a possible option that doesnt cost you elsewhere?

Regarding Wallner, I'm not aware of him ever playing 1B. Can he learn the position? Maybe. He's not a bad athlete at all. He actually runs quite well and has that cannon of an arm. So I just can't add all that up and day he should be at 1B. BUT, only the Twins know if he has any promise at the position. After all, it's not as easy as saying "stand there and field balls".

I think there are enough good options there to leave Wallner in the OF. And who knows, maybe the Twins think Larnach has the potential to play some 1B, even if Wallner doesn't. Again, they are closer to the situation than we are.

From what I've read, and the little I've seen, Wallner has more than enough athleticism and range to be a solid OF with that great arm. But he's lacking SOMETHING defensively so far as he looks average at best, in SSS, to my eye. It might be just working a little more on tracking the ball and positioning. 

Kirilloff should be THE GUY long term, even IF he's better served begining 2023 at St Paul to get in a groove and continue to feel RIGHT. (Not saying he WON'T be ready opening day). Miranda actually got better at 1B in 2022 as the season wore on and he gained experience there. He's part of the future there as well, while still being able to play 3B. And we both, and others I suspect, believe Julien will be part of the future equation, sort of taking Arraez's role of not great defensively, but at least adequate at 3 or maybe even 4 spots. Gallo provides a probable short term option there.

I love and believe in player flexibility for the roster. But I think Wallner is better off, at least for now, refining his OF defense, and continuing his offensive gains.

 

[dxpavelka]

8 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Bringing back the present incarnation of Miguel, which your previous post advocated, does nothing to solve any of this.

We don't know what the present incarnation of Sano is.  We are drawing conclusions from a 69 plate appearance  sample size last year....

[Cris E]

The alternatives to Kirilloff are not good. Miranda is likely to get the first call, but after that I really don't expect Gallo to play much 1b at all because his glove is too valuable in the outfield.

If I were in player development with this org I'd be on Amazon right now ordering a pallet load of first baseman gloves, and a lot of guys would be be handed the big mitt when they arrive next week and be told to do some learning if they want to claim time. Larnach, Wallner, Julien at the bare minimum are blah defenders in their best positions, guys that could shorten their road to the majors with some time at first base. Polanco might want to tag along if his lateral mobility isn't coming back the way he hoped. For all the talk about positional flexibility that this management likes to point to, sometimes you need to manufacture it like they did with Arraez.

EDIT: Wallner has 0 games at 1B in the college/minors and Larnach has one, and Julien has a bunch, mostly at Cedar Rapids in 2021.

[JD-TWINS]

5 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Really interesting take - Polanco at 1B if Kiriloff is a no go.

At the moment, even if Kiriloff can make it back, Miranda should get lots of frames at 1B.  If Miranda ends up being a more dependable, higher producing player than Kiriloff this season, then next year when Lee, Lewis and Julien show up, Miranda would be the everyday 1B and Kiriloff (with Kepler and Gallo gone) would be a corner OF (with some combo of Larnach, Gordon, Wallner and Martin), backup 1B, and DH.

I literally cannot believe we are going to be starting an OF of Gallo, Kepler and Taylor (when Buxton is inevitably out). Yes, the defense is there in spades, but what a snooze fest at the plate.  And all essentially one year rentals.

Back to Polanco.  I actually think his year at the plate is going to be the key to the Twin’s offense this season. How Polanco goes is how this team will go..

Polanco at 1B in’24 may be worth a look if Kirilof is washed. In ‘23 I think that Gallo is the innings eater at 1B if Kirilof can’t go……obviously, Miranda is at first base if there’s a LH pitcher.

Nick Gordon should be in LF or in CF for RH starters……..along with Gallo & Kepler.

LH starters & Taylor plays CF ……Larnach in LF & Kepler in RF

Buxton v. RH pitchers sits 30 games………DH v. LH pitchers 30 games & DH 20 games vs RH starters……..CF other 80 games

[tony&rodney]

6 hours ago, Elliot said:

My suggestion for that scenario is a player already on the roster, Jorge Polanco.

Great idea which I agree with wholeheartedly and mentioned in the post about Polanco last week. The Twins have infield depth that makes quality contact and they need to use it.

[travkro]

One thing I would like to see is Larnach get some time at 1B at St. Paul. I don't think they have a 1B prospect their and his size is ideal. If he is not going to get regular time at Target Field why not increase his value to the team. 

[jrod23]

There is nothing I want more than to see Kirilloff take off.  He's been through so much with his wrist.  He's so potent at the plate when healthy.  A lingering wrist issue is NOT comfortable when you swing bats for a living.  I pray this surgery did the trick.  Someone posted we wouldn't have traded Arraez if we'd know Kirilloff wouldn't be ready.  I would LOVE for this to be true.  I'd love to see Alex just demolish baseballs as he did in the minors.  However, even Alex, himself, has said recently that he's still experiencing discomfort in the wrist.  I pray that it's part of the recovery process.  I've followed this kid since draft day and have been waiting for him to let the world know what he's capable off.

Now, say he's not able...

For all those talking Gallo to 1B?  Really?!?!  He hits dingers, walks, and plays Gold Glove defense in the outfield.  Really going to take a GG outfielder and stick him at first?  3/4 his paycheck is for his defense.  Miranda is best suited by far.  Kepler even.  With Farmer and Gordon as utility and bench (no specific order), we shouldn't have to see Gallo at 1B at all.

All this is mute as long as Kirilloff gets back to form.  Please do Alex.  Please.

[minman1982]

5 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

We don't know what the present incarnation of Sano is.  We are drawing conclusions from a 69 plate appearance  sample size last year....

From 2019 to 2021, Sano averaged 239 Ks per 162 games and hit for an average of 0.229 in 1026 at bats. That would seem to be a large enough sample to say who Sano is as a batter. Outside of 30 or 40 homeruns he might hit, he is a complete black hole in terms of offense.

Edited February 12, 2023 by minman1982
changed "plate appearances" to "at bats" to correct the stat cited

[Twinsrtheworst]

10 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Don't sleep on Julien playing some 1B this year. 

Yes I'd envision if needed Julien would play 1st base before we turned to Polanco to man the cold corner.

[nokomismod]

I would love to see Kiriloff healthy and breakout but if he cannot why not Larnach? He played a great first base in college and will hopefully breakout this season.

[jimbo92107]

We are all crossing our fingers (and, where possible, toes) that Alex Kirilloff finally gets a full season of health. Same for Byron Buxton. One year, o ye gods of baseball and pediatrics!

Hell, how's about one year where the Twins don't have the most players on IL in the league? How about one year where the team doesn't need to use over 40 different pitchers to limp thru the season? We want all that...and a shrubbery. Nothing too expensive. 

[dxpavelka]

2 hours ago, minman1982 said:

From 2019 to 2021, Sano averaged 239 Ks per 162 games and hit for an average of 0.229 in 1026 at bats. That would seem to be a large enough sample to say who Sano is as a batter. Outside of 30 or 40 homeruns he might hit, he is a complete black hole in terms of offense.

As opposed to Joey Gallo?

[weitz41]

I agree he is one of the keys to the offense. I'm rooting for him to get this wrist injury behind him. I hate to see his career fizzle because of it.. 

Seems like the one position with less-than-ideal options if his wrist isn't right. The other's mentioned get most of their team value from playing their primary position.

No one in the minors stands out to me as an option except Julien but he hasn't played a game in AAA yet.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

7 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

As opposed to Joey Gallo?

100% agreed on the hitting value comp. On the fielding comp, Gallo is a much better fielder. While I hate the Gallo signing and feel he’s an overrated  fielder, at least he’s descent. Sano is a butcher, pretty much everywhere he’s fielded.