Did the Twins Exceed Expectations This Year?

[Nick Nelson]

Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Twins were flying high coming off the 2023 season, but a demoralizing collapse in 2024 followed by a roundly disappointing 2025 erased their momentum and tanked fan morale. Attendance reached its lowest point in 25 years. 

When Tom Pohlad took over last offseason as the new face of ownership, he acknowledged the state of affairs and the core imperative: they needed to win back confidence. They needed to put a better and more inspiring product on the field.

"It’s undeniable," Pohlad said, "that we haven’t won enough baseball games, the financial health of the club has been put in jeopardy, and we’ve got a fan base that has lost trust in us as owners — and, as a result, this organization and the direction it’s headed."

No one was suggesting a 90-win campaign. The reality of this team's situation coming off a historic deadline firesale was plain to see. Pohlad, to his credit, was measured in his level-setting for the 2026 season.

"We really like our team," he shared at the start of spring training. "We think we’ve got a good mix of veterans and really talented young people that want to make a statement. I think we’re going to exceed expectations.”

That was a low bar. General expectations for the Twins were tempered to say the least, coming off 90 losses and carrying one of the league's skimpiest payrolls. The over/under in Vegas coming into this season was 72 to 73 wins (which Pohlad called "ridiculous"), whereas projection systems like FanGraphs viewed the team's outlook somewhat more favorably, pegging them in the 77-win range. 

With one game left, the Twins sit at 76 wins. They've already won money for the over bettors and it looks like they are going to nail their projection forecasts to a tee. I guess that's something to celebrate?

It calls to mind a classic Calvin and Hobbes comic panel from the great Bill Watterson. Conversing with Calvin over the construction of a snowman, Hobbes ponders: “So the secret to good self-esteem is to lower your expectations to the point where they’re already met?” 

“Right,” Calvin responds. “We should take pride in our mediocrity.”

 

Taking pride in mediocrity feels like a good way to synopsize any good vibes that this losing season might elicit. There's no better way to describe this 2026 Twins team than mediocre: okay, passable, neither very good nor very bad. They avoided elimination until the last week of September, but were above .500 for 13 days all season, and hung around on the fringe of contention only due to the sorry state of the American League at large. 

But hey, perception matters. This year's Twins team played almost in lockstep with last year's in the first half, hovering just below .500 for most of July before taking very different paths at the trade deadline. The contrast was twofold:

• In 2025, Detroit was running away with the Central, and being five games below .500 was not enough to put you in the Wild Card conversation.
• In 2025, the Twins were playing this mediocre brand of baseball with a roster that was at least co-favored to win the division, and with Carlos Correa being paid $35 million.

Some view the latter as a bad thing. I get it. It's more frustrating to watch a good team lose. And it leads to more rancor: players grumbling, media melting down, "sell the team" chants erupting. Relatively speaking, there's been very little of that this year, because people know the deal. 

For me, I like to have some skin in the game. I like to feel the sweat, to revel in the dramatics. My sweat was never beading up in this 2026 season, even as the AL field did its best to keep things interesting. I was convinced from the outset this was going to be a bad team and it was indeed a bad team, albeit somewhat less bad than I feared. 

So, did the Twins surpass expectations? In my view yes, at least in terms of wins and losses, but only because mine were so low to begin with. And that very fact is why I struggled to ever feel truly engaged with this season. 

I never believed in the capability and potential of this team like I did in 2024 before the collapse, or in 2025's first half to a lesser degree. This team never won 12 or 13 straight games; it never won more than four straight. Not a single player had a truly star-caliber season. 

In that regard, the Twins didn't surpass my expectations at all. They were exactly what I expected. But at least they are giving me reason to expect more next year. Because, everything else aside, this team did finish on a much different note than the last two.

Instead of watching a collection of disgruntled veterans play out the string, Twins fans got a September introduction to players who might actually be central to where this thing goes next. Walker Jenkins, Kaelen Culpepper and Emmanuel Rodriguez weren't just prospects looming somewhere off in the distance anymore. They were here, getting meaningful exposure to the majors and giving us a glimpse of what a younger, more dynamic Twins lineup could look like.

On the pitching side, Taj Bradley and Connor Prielipp put the finishing touches on breakthrough seasons that established them as legitimate rotation fixtures. There are plenty of holes left to fill and questions left to answer, but the Twins will enter this offseason with a clearer picture of their young core than they had a year ago.

Maybe that's the most meaningful way this team exceeded expectations. The 2026 Twins weren't particularly good, and they never gave us much reason to believe they would become good. But by the end, they gave us a few more reasons to believe what comes next might (finally) be different.

I'd love to hear your thoughts. Did this team exceed your expectations? And where does this finish leave your expectations looking ahead to 2027?

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[mikelink45]

I look forward to the young players you listed.  I have lost faith in Lewis and we need to ramp up 1B and C.

I expect Ryan to go by trade deadline - I hope.  

I have no idea what Lopez will be like coming back from such a long absence.  

The BP was mediocre and used too much - but that is modern baseball.  Gomez 56, Morris 63, Rogers 65, Adams 40, Funderburk 58.  Banda 39 before injury, Orze 36.  They worry about innings for SP (too much worry) and yet don't think that players warming up and pitching 1/3 of the games is too much.  It is not just the batters faced - it is the heating up in the BP too.  Gomez, Morris, Adams all showed fatigue by the end. Rogers showed that he is done. We need a better BP and better use.  Hoffman was in 71 games between the Jays and Twins and ended on the IL.

[Coach Wheels]

They were better than expected by maybe 5 games but this is a division that very very average.

The Twins are a mess defensively and in the bullpen and if I'm going to take them seriously in 2027, the ownership has to take their franchise seriously and improve the talent. 85 wins gets you a division flag, the bar isn't that high

[Peter]

This was a great season regardless of what everyone thinks!!! One run losses and blown leads were brutal but all in all great season!!! Ryan/ober/larnach/bell and Jeffers won’t be back-Clemens might be gone but that’s ok! We got great prospects ready to step up for twins and future is great!!! Can’t wait for next season as well multiple division titles and another World Series championship!!! Let’s go twins!!!

[TCanWins]

This was my first year as a Twins fan and I had no expectations so I was happy enough - I would have loved it if they made playoffs but they weren't going to compete meaningfully so they best they can do is give us hope for 2027, and I think they did that.

I would say I have more hope at the end of 2026 than at the start.

Cut some dead weight and let the kids play and there will be something worth cheering about most weeks of 2027, shortened season or not.

[thelanges5]

This season was more interesting than I thought it would be. The org needs to figure out the 2nd half performance. What is causing this dip three years running? Not a totally wasted season as we got to see some of the future core. Go Twins!

[DJL44]

Meets expectations. 2% raise.

[ziggy]

Quote

The over/under in Vegas coming into this season was 72 to 73 wins (which Pohlad called "ridiculous"), whereas projection systems like FanGraphs viewed the team's outlook somewhat more favorably, pegging them in the 77-win range. 

With one game left, the Twins sit at 76 wins. They've already won money for the over bettors and it looks like they are going to nail their projection forecasts to a tee. I guess that's something to celebrate?

I guess it is something to celebrate.

I am glad they FINALLY called up some younger more althelitic players. Now if they quit with the attitude that anyone can play anywhere and start playing good defense things will organically improve.

This was a lost season and Tom P refusing to admit that in order to 'inspire confidence' in the fan base wasted next year as well by refusing to play the young guns in a meaningful way so they can adjust to the big leagues. As has been mentioned on this forum, pick a direction.

[MeleMouth]

I thought the Twins would lose 90 games, so they were *successful*, I guess.

However, in the big picture, this was one of the worst years in a long time for the Twins.

Winston Churchill allegedly said, "Never let a good crisis go to waste." Many great businesses take advantages of downturns to rebuild their businesses, invest in areas where their competitors aren't, and emerge from the downturn stronger than their competitors.

Tom Pohlad, on the other hand, as the representative of a family who inherited billions and never had to make life-changing decisions under existential threat, and perhaps reflecting more current political leaders, thinks the way to address a downturn is to deny its existence and message positivity. Leaders who follow this strategy usually fail to make the hard decisions that lead to market-gaining opportunities when the crisis is over. In fact, when the crisis ends they usually emerge as weaker competitors. Unfortunately, that's the path the Twins took this year, and it bodes poorly for the immediate future.

[shimrod]

I expected a hundred losses so I was pleased to enjoy more wins than anticipated. 

I also expected the Twins to leverage the trade deadline to add prospects and clear the decks for a youth movement; here I was bitterly disappointed. I knew we weren't getting any stars in return for our veterans but addition by subtraction would have been the right move. 

The Twins need an influx of athleticism, defense, and enthusiasm. We saw hints the last couple weeks but in too small a sample size to know who's actually ready and who still warrants a placeholder. Our missed opportunity was in team development, not won-loss record. 

 

 

[rv78]

First, lets get one thing straight, 2025 was not a good team. If it was, there wouldn't have been a massive sell-off at the deadline. Correa is/was one of the most over-rated players in baseball. The Twins had a terrible defense. Lewis couldn't play 3rd, Wallner was terrible in RF and at the plate, Keaschall was trying to play 2B. France provided zero power from the 1B position, The bench provided nothing. When you have the likes of Mickey Gasper playing in a 4th of your games that speaks to how weak they were. Woods-Richardson was your #3 pitcher. The only strength that team had was their bullpen. 

The best part of the entire 2026 season was seeing the young players getting a chance to play. Bringing in Kremer, Hoffman, and Minter at the deadline meant nothing other than window dressing towards the fans. TP could say he tried. A feeble attempt at improvement is all it was. Bradley, Prielipp, Matthews, Morris, Adams, Rojas, Abel, look like they are ready for their chance. Jenkins, ERod, Keaschall in the OF. Lee and Culpepper on the left side. I can handle Clemens at 2B or 1B until they find someone better, hopefully this off-season. I can see Houston eventually getting SS and maybe Culpepper can shift to 2B. Catcher is a problem short-term without Jeffers. Everyone else is expendable. Will Tom commit to the right direction? I doubt Jeffers will return. What they do with Ryan will show us the direction he takes. Keeping him is more of the same, trading him will signal a meaningful rebuild. Lewis needs to go as well.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Like others, I expected 90+ losses, this team didn’t reach that, so technically exceeded my expectations.

practically, the entire AL performed lower than my expectations. On this last day of the season the winner of the AL West will have a .500 record and could be below .500 if the Twins and As both win. As of now there are 6 AL teams with .500 or better records, and we could end the season that way.

i didn’t expect the entire AL to play down to the Twins level. That may have padded the Twins wins in ways that most seasons wouldn’t have.

2026 started the season a worse team on paper than 2025 started. 2026 made adjustments to improve from 2025 and ended with the youth looking promising, something that 2025 did not.

where 2026 exceeded my expectations

1) they improved fielding positions as the season progressed

2) hitting with RISP

3) record, but dubious

where 2026 disappointed 

1) really suspect roster decisions, n

2) the bullpen, the entire bullpen has changed over twice, and it still sucked badly. My expectations were very low, and somehow I was disappointed

what does this mean for 2027?

I expect another clunker of an offseason. Too cowardly to sell, to cheap to buy, more disappointment 

[mluebker]

14 minutes ago, rv78 said:

I can handle Clemens at 2B or 1B until they find someone better…

At this point they should be building a team around Clemens, one of the few guys who both was a reliable hitter and a solid defender this year. More like him—and thankfully some of the young ones are finally getting a look—and they have a roster that plausibly makes the playoffs. There aren’t enough spots on the field for all the inconsistent “We think he can hit, and he’s athletic with a high ceiling, so we’ll find him a spot to play,” types who’ve been clogging up the roster for the past couple years. 

Clean house. Keep anyone who’s doing a good job for a reasonable price, let the young guys find themselves (or sort themselves out), and maybe they have a .500 team for 2027, maybe even better if they truly exceed expectations. 

[strumdatjag]

The Twins were more competitive and more entertaining than I expected.   I believe they would have been contending longer with Pablo Lopez and Anthony Banda healthy all year. 

[PuckettPond]

2026 fan attendance was terrible. Twins fans support in the top 3 for worst in MLB. " If you don't go to the game you can't complain" Ghandi. If attending a Twins game was a crime Twins fans would be on death row.

[TheLeviathan]

9 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Like others, I expected 90+ losses, this team didn’t reach that, so technically exceeded my expectations.

practically, the entire AL performed lower than my expectations. On this last day of the season the winner of the AL West will have a .500 record and could be below .500 if the Twins and As both win. As of now there are 6 AL teams with .500 or better records, and we could end the season that way.

i didn’t expect the entire AL to play down to the Twins level. That may have padded the Twins wins in ways that most seasons wouldn’t have.

I clipped this part to respond because I think Richie's post hit on a lot of what I was going to say;

I like this article from Nick, I think it synthesizes the analysis well on this season.  The one disagreement I'd have is that Nick was really close to drawing the conclusion I think he was actually feeling at the end but never quite says it: by record this team "exceeded" expectations but it was honestly just dumb luck.

Their run differential record (75) and Pythag record (74) both demonstrate this but even moreso as Richie says they benefited from playing in a really bad AL that padded their wins.  They had about a month and a half of crazy good sequencing and luck, then got those stats to level off when they had the exact opposite luck down the stretch.  But mostly what feels like it was better than expected was more of a reflection on how bad the AL was than anything the Twins actually did to exceed expectations.  We expected them to be bad and they pretty much were bad.

Good news though, as Richie points out, we've got a much better defensive path going forward.  I think the team has decided to turn the page to some fresh new talent.  We can only hope they lean into that and Tom Pohlad realizes the best chance he has to get that franchise valuation up is to stay out of the ear of the fanbase and his GM and let the baseball professionals make the hard decisions in the name of a brighter future.  

[soyouresayingtheresachance]

To answer the question of exceeding expectations, no, we didn't. 

We learned some things, though.  

The front office kept some players that shouldn't have been here anymore. Larnach being at the top of the list. He blocked Jenkins, Erod, Roden and any other OF prospects that may have been able to fill that spot and gain meaningful experience. 

We learned better positions for some guys, Lee and Keaschall. Lee at 3B defensively has been a night and day difference from SS. Im hoping his bat can develop a bit more. Keaschall was awful at 2B and has been only slightly better in the OF. Its a much better use of his speed, though. Maybe with an offseason of work, he'll improve. His bat plays.

We learned some guys that shouldn't be on the team anymore. Either by poor play or no fit on the team. Some of those guys are already gone and others should be gone this offseason. Larnach, Lewis, Wallner, Ober. SIM, Outman, and others are already gone. 

We knew the BP was a mess and It still is. We found a couple guys for next season, but work is still needed. 

Kody Clemens broke out in a big way, leading the team in HRs and IMO being team MVP. 

We answered some questions and didnt answer others. This offseason needs to answer questions like the BP and finding us a legit Closer. 1B needs a huge upgrade. C needs an upgrade, Caratini can not be the guy. Is Pablo going to be healthy and effective? If not, we'll to answer the question of finding an Ace. 

This season ended right about where I thought it would. Flirting with .500. A weak AL made a playoff opportunity seem real. Injuries and inconsistencies ultimately cost us that opportunity. 

[Jack207]

For me it was better just because I continued to watch Twins games right to the end of the season unlike last year when I quit watching around September 15th. I like the hustle of Keaschel, Jenkins, Emma and Clemens to name a few. 

[Blyleven2011]

This has nothing to do with how the teams in our division played  , they played poorly enough to make the twins look good …

never considered the twins to be any good if we did actually get into the playoffs …

the twins did look good in stages of the season ( when Jeffers hit the IL list , that was one stretch of good baseball ) and they did exceed my expectations throughout the season by playing more exciting games , they had more fight in them when down by a crooked number than previous seasons …

 

still lots to do to make this team a serious contender , LETS OPEN THAT WINDOW GOING FORWARD POHLADS  …

[rdehring]

In answer to your question, Nick, I would say, yes, no or maybe?

I wasn't in the Twin Cities during the early to mid-80's when the team was ramping up to the '87 World Series.  But this past month or so I have the feeling that this young group might be doing what they did.

Although Lewis hasn't developed into the player everyone expected Lee and Keaschall made huge progress during the year and look to be solid members of future Twins teams.  Add the trio of young prospects who finally arrived and the Twins should have 5/8 of their position player group set well into the 2030's.  Add several young pitchers, including those who arrived at the 2025 deadline, a young shortstop and several catchers and their future is bright, very bright.

Now they need to make a few smart moves this offseason, assuming there is an offseason to do so.

[ziggy]

Did the team exceed my expectations? Yes

But only because my expectations were so low to begin with.

[DJL44]

44 minutes ago, mluebker said:

At this point they should be building a team around Clemens, one of the few guys who both was a reliable hitter and a solid defender this year. More like him—and thankfully some of the young ones are finally getting a look—and they have a roster that plausibly makes the playoffs. There aren’t enough spots on the field for all the inconsistent “We think he can hit, and he’s athletic with a high ceiling, so we’ll find him a spot to play,” types who’ve been clogging up the roster for the past couple years. 

Any GM would tell you it is a bad idea to build your team around a 30 year old utility player coming off a career year. If Kody Clemens is the team MVP, it just illustrates how bad this team is. A rebuilding team would look to sell high on Clemens. The Twins will keep him through arbitration the next three seasons and he will likely provide an overpriced stinker season in 2029 before retiring from baseball.

[ewen21]

59 minutes ago, mluebker said:

At this point they should be building a team around Clemens 

I do like Clemens, honestly I do, but no team should be "built around" a career utility player now in his 30s.  That said, I would say we can use more players who share his attitude and work ethic.  I know the word "attitude" makes some folks gasp, but it should not.  I think we need to start developing a strategy to manage the post Buxton years.  He has two more years on that contract and at this point there is no scenario where it makes sense to sign him beyond that contract.  One thing we must STOP is this notion that we need to hoist a player up on a pedestal and give him "face of the franchise" status.  That is something I would like to see go away forever.  I see no profit in that strategy with regard to player development and that is what should be the focus.  I much prefer teams more like the early 2000s.

 

Did the Twins exceed expectations?  I do not think that is the right question since most people didn't even expect a .500 team.

[Linus]

I had them pegged for 75 or 76 wins so the answer is no. I like that we finally are moving in a new direction but am disappointed that we missed on opportunities to get value from Ryan, Jeffers etc. I’m really disappointed that the FO / ownership group didn’t have the vision or the courage to rip the band aid off sooner. That tempers my optimism for the future. 

[Parfigliano]

2 hours ago, Coach Wheels said:

They were better than expected by maybe 5 games but this is a division that very very average.

The Twins are a mess defensively and in the bullpen and if I'm going to take them seriously in 2027, the ownership has to take their franchise seriously and improve the talent. 85 wins gets you a division flag, the bar isn't that high

They beat the people in the expectations busines (Las Vegas) expectation of 73.5 wins.

[DJL44]

8 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

They beat the people in the expectations busines (Las Vegas) expectation of 73.5 wins.

I think that is mainly due to Vegas expecting a team in the Twins situation to sell at the deadline.

[wavedog]

The Twins did exceed my expectations but as with Nick it is because they were very low.  I had them penciled in for 68 wins because I thought the bullpen would be a disaster and was not sure of the rotation with Lopez being out for the year.    I still purchased the MLB package though and I will say I enjoyed watching the Twins play much more this season than in most recent seasons.   I think that is due to some combination of a different atmosphere Shelton brought to the team along with seeing a lot of the young talent come up and play and show some positive signs - like Keaschall, Bradley, Prielipp, Culpepper, Jenkins and most recently Rodriguez.    We also got a high draft pick in Lackey I look forward to seeing soon.    The bullpen while not being good was not a disaster and Gomez was a refreshing presence.     Let's go out and end with a win today and end the season on a positive note!  

[StiltedGopher]

The rest of the world expected the Rays to finish very low in the AL and East.  Their organization didn’t accept that.  
 

Everybody aiming for 73-76 wins needs to go.
 

Exceed expectations, good grief.  Start having expectations    

[stringer bell]

I had the Twins pegged for 69 wins with a trade deadline selloff. So, I guess they exceeded my expectations. The offense was better than their aggregate numbers should have produced. but the down side is that of the three guys who needed to step up, only Brooks Lee stepped forward. Royce Lewis stayed healthy, but his numbers weren't close to good enough to guarantee a spot for the 2027 Twins and Matt Wallner failed and even though he hit very well at St. Paul, the contact and defensive issues remain. Buxton had a great half season (with a notable lack of hitting with RISP) and was injured and/or playing hurt for the balance of the season. Maybe the hip surgery will reignite his career, but there is a real danger that he'll never be what we've seen in flashes. 

On the plus side, we saw the future (Culpepper, Jenkins and Rodriguez) and they showed why the Twins and all MLB talent evaluators were intrigued. If these three all step forward, perhaps joined by Lackey and Houston, this is an enviable core. On the pitching side, Rojas, Preliepp and Morris debuted and all showed flashes of being really good. None sustained that performance, but I'm reminded of the rookie seasons of Frank Viola and Jose Berrios--they struggled early, but turned into top of the rotation guys. It looks like Morris will be a bullpen piece. Rojas seems to be undetermined, but I think he could be a really good starting pitcher.

The two free agent signings--Bell and Caratini--worked out pretty much as expected. Bell hit okay and was a defensive non-factor and Caratini was a satisfactory backup catcher who didn't hit particularly well. Three other players deserve comment IMHO. Ryan Kreidler provided value as a good defender and did provide some offense. He might be in line for a backup infielder spot next year. Austin Martin improved as a defender and got on base against left handed pitching, but unless he can do more, he is limited to short-side platoon duty. Alan Roden is kind of average at everything, maybe a bit better on contact but with little power and an okay fielder with average speed. If he wants regular work, it might be at first base.

The front office has made some strange decisions--the whole Alex Jackson debacle was weird. They took what turned out to be a sucker bet on adding at the trade deadline and not moving future free agent Jeffers and maybe Ryan and Larnach. It is TBD if the trades will work out, but they were made on the premise that the Twins would be playing significant games late in September and that didn't happen. 

 

[Omardog]

None of this matters until the grifting silver spoon Pohlads sell the team and get out of the baseball business.  They have no interest in seriously competing for the post season.