Will the Twins Have a Single 3-WAR Player This Season?

Find a defensive home for Keaschall and leave him there and he will be fine. Culpepper certainly looks the part. Not worried about Jenkins. I may still be dreaming about 2023 Lewis but I’d bet he’s got 3 fWAR in there.  Love me some Pablo Day. I’m looking forward to 2027 and beyond. 

If you are only looking at fwar - maybe there is a question.  Otherwise Jeffers WAR which the title states is the question -  is at 3.2.   With 16 games left,  I would expect a high probability he gets to 3.0 fwar as I think he will end in the 3.5-3.8 range for WAR.  

Bwar paints a different picture. With Bradley, Buxton and Jeffers So it comes back to damn lies and statistics.  Use whatever makes your point. 

I agree with everything said here Nick.   With Joe “go big or go home” Pohlad,  where do you spend to bring in another 3 war player for next year?   Looks crowded with average/unproven players on the position player side….. 

Like a 1974 Ford LTD the Twins need a complete over haul. Starting bench players gives us this season's results.

56 minutes ago, PuckettPond said:

Like a 1974 Ford LTD the Twins need a complete over haul. Starting bench players gives us this season's results.

This is particularly personal to me, because my mom drove a the cliche lime green 1974 Ford LTD wagon with the rumble seats in the back and the wood panels.  That car was ready for the dump before the Twins started playing in the Metrodome.  

45 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

 

Smart trades and high draft positions are really the only options, and the Twins cut off both of those options last offseason. It's possible that Jenkins, Culpepper and Lackey will be elite, but I don't see anything in terms of pitching that would suggest a dominant rotation or bullpen.

 

My guess is the Twins starting rotation and depth is top 5 in MLB next year.  

As to the bullpen - as currently constructed and if you can keep Minter and Banda comes back healthy to replace Rogers,  that is a very good bullpen.  Top 10-15 - significant improvement over the end of last year.  Gomez, Hoffman, Minter, and Morris as an extremely strong top 4 arms.  

 I still think consistent offense is our biggest issue.   If Culpepper and Jenkins can settle in to be all star level offensive players.   Culpepper has done well.  Jenkins appears to be adjusting just like Culpepper did, then this team is suddenly in a much difference spot.  

Part of what you have to ask with a question about 3+ WAR players (besides which version you use) is whether it's because of talent or injury too. A healthier Buxton & Jeffers both get there in 2026 (and Buck was one who made it in 2025)

With the pitchers is particularly interesting which version of WAR you use; based on the design I've always felt that bWAR was more descriptive of what actually happened on the field, whereas fWAR was arguably a better predictor of future success (or failure). Taj Bradley has a BIG delta between his fWAR and bWAR basically because fWAR is saying he got lucky a lot and shouldn't be rewarded for it and bWAR is saying the result is what the result is...

Regardless of the actual results of someone finishing with a WAR over 3, it's easier to feel more positive about the direction of the team because you're seeing more young players on the 2026 roster and more of them are contributing. It's not that hard to look at Culpepper and think "that's a 3 WAR player in 2027" or "Keep Brooks Lee at 3B and he's a 3 WAR player" or "play Keaschall in LF next season and he's a 3 WAR player" whereas last season you might have only said that about Keaschall...

2 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

If you are only looking at fwar - maybe there is a question.  Otherwise Jeffers WAR which the title states is the question -  is at 3.2.   With 16 games left,  I would expect a high probability he gets to 3.0 fwar as I think he will end in the 3.5-3.8 range for WAR.  

Jefferson has a 3+ war, yet the Twins have a winning record in the games he was on the shelf. WAR is just an amazingly overrated number. 

30 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

My guess is the Twins starting rotation and depth is top 5 in MLB next year.  

 

Depth, sure, but quality depth is another thing.

Right now there is a chasm between Twins starters and the top of the league rotations.  Despite many injuries, the Dodgers get a "quality start" 52% of the time.  They are trailed by the Phillies, Mariners, Red Sox, Royals (!), and Yankees in the 40-50% range.  The Twins are below league average at 32%.

Now, maybe Ryan will be back and pitches well all year.  Maybe Pablo makes a full recovery and is immediately good.  Maybe Taj and Zebby and Prielepp and pick whomever you want all improve.  But that is a whole lot of "maybes".  Some will perform well, others will regress or get hurt, and the Twins will spend some time sorting through the alternatives.

I could see the Twins being in the top 1/3 of the league for starting pitching.  To reach top 5 almost everything has to break right, and they still won't have a Skubal-type ace unless somebody seriously outperforms expectations.

It's a mediocre team with a mediocre roster.  Average-ish players all over the lineup and pitching staff.  Hence, as the author points out, a lot of 1 to 2 WAR players.

3 minutes ago, TJSweens said:

Jefferson has a 3+ war, yet the Twins have a winning record in the games he was on the shelf. WAR is just an amazingly overrated number. 

It means we haven't had other individuals perform when he has been hot.   Brian Dozier had 22.6 WAR on a lot of losing teams.   Thats not difficult to understand.  Caratini was as hot or hotter when Jeffers was injured and if I remember you had 3-4 other guys get hot.  As Bell has stated - they need several players to get hot down the stretch.  If they can string together a few more wins,  get momentum and confidence it could get interesting down the stretch.  

5 minutes ago, Road trip said:

Depth, sure, but quality depth is another thing.

Right now there is a chasm between Twins starters and the top of the league rotations.  Despite many injuries, the Dodgers get a "quality start" 52% of the time.  They are trailed by the Phillies, Mariners, Red Sox, Royals (!), and Yankees in the 40-50% range.  The Twins are below league average at 32%.

Now, maybe Ryan will be back and pitches well all year.  Maybe Pablo makes a full recovery and is immediately good.  Maybe Taj and Zebby and Prielepp and pick whomever you want all improve.  But that is a whole lot of "maybes".  Some will perform well, others will regress or get hurt, and the Twins will spend some time sorting through the alternatives.

I could see the Twins being in the top 1/3 of the league for starting pitching.  To reach top 5 almost everything has to break right, and they still won't have a Skubal-type ace unless somebody seriously outperforms expectations.

It's a mediocre team with a mediocre roster.  Average-ish players all over the lineup and pitching staff.  Hence, as the author points out, a lot of 1 to 2 WAR players.

Thats not a mediocre starting staff,  and the depth gives you immense options to rest and send players down for underperformance.  Plus you have several arms with upside.  Abel, Priellip, Matthews and Rojas all have extremely good stuff.   Top 5 isn't as hard as you think.  Top 3 is tough -  top 5 you need 4 arms to be really good - #2 or better type pitchers.  Ryan, Lopez and Bradley all have that ability and some pedigree.  You then need a #3 and then a #4 type arm.   You have enough players and those with upside and some with higher floors in Kremer and Ober to really pick how you want to develop this starting pitching roster.   Part of the reason the starts have been down is relying on so many young arms.    Rojas, Priellip, Abel, and Matthews have accounted for what 40% plus of our starts?    As they develop and lengthen out you will get increased performance and length.  

2 minutes ago, Road trip said:

Right now there is a chasm between Twins starters and the top of the league rotations.  Despite many injuries, the Dodgers get a "quality start" 52% of the time.  They are trailed by the Phillies, Mariners, Red Sox, Royals (!), and Yankees in the 40-50% range.  The Twins are below league average at 32%.

 

Any argument comparing the Twins to the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, and Phillies in a quality/depth argument needs to be taken with a grain of salt...

12 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

It means we haven't had other individuals perform when he has been hot.   Brian Dozier had 22.6 WAR on a lot of losing teams.   Thats not difficult to understand.  Caratini was as hot or hotter when Jeffers was injured and if I remember you had 3-4 other guys get hot.  As Bell has stated - they need several players to get hot down the stretch.  If they can string together a few more wins,  get momentum and confidence it could get interesting down the stretch.  

Maybe, you put together a team that doesn't need 1/3rd to half the roster "hot" to play winning baseball. 

Most teams have players on the roster who can manage that!

12 minutes ago, Twins GFP said:

Any argument comparing the Twins to the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, and Phillies in a quality/depth argument needs to be taken with a grain of salt...

To be fair that wasn't the argument.   Those are the top 4.  Who has the 5th best rotation?   For 2027  Mariners and Twins would definitely be in that conversation and injuries and underperformance will hit at least 1 of those top 4 teams.    Its an enviable spot for the Twins.  We just need a good enough offense to capitalize on the pitching we have.   

26 minutes ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

Arguments about WAR aside, this points out the Twins biggest problem in putting together a truly competitive roster for 2027. We have the complimentary players, but we don't have the "tentpole" stars around which to array those players. Put differently, we are really only short about 4 Players - a #3 and #4 bat in the lineup, and true #1 starter, and a shutdown closer. You know, the 4 most difficult things to find. If you think about the lineup and place each starter where they belong in a competitive lineup, here's what you get IMHO:
3 guys who can hit #1 or #2 (Keaschall, a healthy Buxton, Culpepper)

1 guy who can hit #5 (Jeffers, and he's likely leaving) 

3 guys who can hit # 6 or #7 (Lee, Clemens, Larnach (only vs. RH pitching, unplayable vs. LH, and also probably gone in 2027))

Guys who should hit #8 or #9 (Lewis, Caratini, Jenkins, Martin, Kriedler, etc.)

It's little wonder the lineup is so inconsistent. It doesn't work to hit guys who should hit 6 and 7 in the 2-4 holes. It's also hard to see improvement from this group to fill those holes. Maybe Keaschall could hit #3 behind a Buxton/Culpepper start but what happens when Buck gets hurt again or if he can't play after the surgery? The same thing applies to the starting staff. Lopez and Ryan are both very good #2 starters but neither is really a #1 and both get hurt a lot. Gomez has been a great closer at 22-22 in saves, but do we really think that will continue? Who knows. 

Who do you fix this? I don't know that you can but here's what I would try. Find out the market for Ryan. If you can trade him for a true controllable #3 or #4 hitter, do it even of you have to include a quality prospect or take on a multiyear contract. Don't trade him for guys how might someday be #3 or #4 hitters but aren't yet unless that's all you can get. He wants big money and more importantly wants to go back to California so trade him this off season. Try to re-sign Jeffers, even if you have to give him 4 years. He's the unquestioned starter the next 2 years anyway since Lackey and Tait, et. al. are at least that far away, and can be in a time share years 3 and 4. Try to sign a quality FA 2B, 1B, or LF that can hit in the middle of the order. On the pitching side, I think we have to roll with the rotation as is (unless Freddy Peralta wants to come) and hope guys take a step forward so we have a solid rotation of #2-#4 starters that carries us through. Scour the FA market for another late inning arm, preferably a LH. Frankly, AJ Minter could be that guy and Banda replaces Rogers. Do that and get some injury luck and we could have a 90 win team.

We're not too far off of a truly competitive roster but just running it back isn't likely to get us there. Time for Tom to put his money where his mouth is.      

 

 

 

This is spot on. My only concern is that, with a hefty arb number, Ryan doesn’t have nearly the trade value he had before. 

Despite the low WAR the Twins scored the 2nd most runs in the AL.  They do this by having a deep 1-9 lineup of ok to good hitters.  A bunch of guys capable of driving in 70-80 RBI each year with 15-25 HRs.  They usually have a few decent bench bats too.  No one great but lots of competency.  The line up is cheaper that way.  If we have an all-star it's because we developed him from the draft and minors.  

Our pitching is looking pretty good next season.  We will be competitive next year.  Especially if Culpepper keeps hitting and Jenkins figured it out.  Our lineup this year has 2 3+ WAR hitters in Buxton and Jenkins.  I will give them a pass for their impact while healthy.  Which is another point the Twins tend to hit real welll at C and CF and SS...  Which makes up for lack of stardom.