Report: Twins Were Offered Two Top Red Sox Prospects for Joe Ryan at Last Year's Deadline

[Seth Stohs]

According to Alex Speier from The Boston Globe, the Twins were offered a huge package in exchange for RHP Joe Ryan. 

Left-handed pitcher Payton Tolle is a 23-year-old. He was the Red Sox second-round pick in 2024 out of Texas Christian.  Early in the 2025 season, he jumped to the top of the Red Sox prospect rankings. At the end of August, he was called up by the Red Sox and made three starts and four relief appearances. He was in the Red Sox bullpen in the playoffs 

He began the 2026 season at Triple-A. He made three starts and went 2-0 with a 3.03 ERA. Since he has made 16 starts and is 5-6 despite an ERA of 3.31. At 6-5 and over 250 pounds, he has a big fastball and breaking pitches with and without velocity. 

Franklin Arias was always a well thought of prospect. Before the 2025 season, he was in Top 100 rankings. He began this season as a Top 50 prospect. He began this season where he ended last season, in Double-A. In 75 games for Portland, he hit .318/.407/.587 (.993) with 17 doubles and 19 home runs. Just this weekend, he earned a promotion to Triple-A Worcester.   

He is now a Top 5 prospect in all of baseball and right on the cusp of the big leagues.   

From the Boston Globe, "The Sox ended up with a deadline fizzle of Dustin May and Steven Matz while whiffing on a much bigger swing. They made a push to acquire All-Star starter Joe Ryan from the Twins. According to multiple sources, the team was willing to send Minnesota its top two prospects: High-A shortstop Franklin Arias and Double-A lefthander Payton Tolle."

Of course, Twins fans know all about Joe Ryan. He came to the Twins five years ago from the Rays in exchange for Nelson Cruz. He was the team's opening day starter in 2022. He's been very good, making the All-Star team for the American League each of the past two seasons. 

"According to Alex Speier of The Boston Globe, the Red Sox offered left-handed pitcher Payton Tolle and current top prospect shortstop Franklin Arias in exchange for Ryan. It’s a trade that many in Boston likely would not hesitate to make at the time, but the conversation has changed after the season Tolle has had and Arias’ continued rise through the organization’s farm system."

Ryan has one more year of team control before he can become a free agent. 

Would a package of Tolle and Frias have be enough for you to click "Yes" on the trade offer have been enough for you to like it last summer? Remember, Tolle was in AA and Arias was in High-A. How about right now? Would you need a couple more lottery ticket prospects too?          

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[TheLeviathan]

[TheLeviathan]

That would've been an automatic "yes" from me.  Hell....send that offer to them again.  Right now.  Yesterday even.

[Mike Sixel]

Brutal if true. This team would be so much better off with that deal. I doubt you can get Tolle straight up for Ryan right now. 

[weitz41]

I'm not certain that guy said FUN Leviathan..

[Linus]

You mean there is risk in hanging on to Joe when we are not going anywhere?  If this is in fact true I want to go back and fire Falvey all over again. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

we were too busy negotiating the Louie Varland trade to take their call! 

[thelanges5]

28 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Brutal if true. This team would be so much better off with that deal. I doubt you can get Tolle straight up for Ryan right now. 

Arm fatigue and giving up 6 HRs don’t help the trade value. 

[Sampson5]

Probably wouldn't of liked it in the moment but I'd do it now for sure lmao I can understand not wanting to trade a elite pitcher for prospects in AA not sure I believe this tho when at the deadline the reports were red Sox called right before the deadline and pretty sure it was reported they never made a offer because twins wanted one of their mlb outfielders feels pretty convenient that the package isn't revealed for a year when said potential prospects are both playing well but if true id be understandable for twins to want pieces that were ready to contribute immediately would of been nice to have both prospects currently tho when it feels inevitable twins will trade Ryan anyways 

[HerbieFan]

Derek Falvey outthunk himself on that one.

[ashbury]

Sometimes being risk averse is the biggest risk.

Of course I don't know what the Twins' talent evaluators were telling Falvey.

I refreshed my memory and when mlb.com's prospect rankings were released in 2025 they had Tolle as #16 in the Sox system.  That's a whole 'nother smoke.

Could be a little revisionist history going today.

[Vanimal46]

47 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

[Hubie29]

You mean that would be better than Roden and Rojas?

[Vanimal46]

Just now, Hubie29 said:

You mean that would be better than Roden and Rojas?

Or an 18 year old catcher in low A ball who’s now batting .220 in High A Cedar Rapids?

[sweetmusicviola16]

Should have done that deal. And that's not speaking from what we know today. That was a good deal then. 

[DataNerd]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

Sometimes being risk averse is the biggest risk.

Of course I don't know what the Twins' talent evaluators were telling Falvey.

I refreshed my memory and when mlb.com's prospect rankings were released in 2025 they had Tolle as #16 in the Sox system.  That's a whole 'nother smoke.

Could be a little revisionist history going today.

That ranking was off of Tolle being the 50th overall pick and not having thrown in the pros.  He then proceded to run a 38 K%/7BB% in A+, then a 37/7 in AA.  He had a massive up arrow next to his name halfway through the year.

[Mike Sixel]

Not to mention Arias.....who was a top 10 talent......which would mean they could deal Houston or Culpepper for a big time player or three....

[jorgenswest]

The 2025 midseason update on Fangraphs had them both FV50. They both moved up after the deadline. Tolle had not pitched at all during the season. Arias had hit .198 in June and July. They would have been trading for a player who hadn’t pitched and a player that was really struggling with the bat. Their value to the time was not much different than Martin and SWR except that the Twins would have given up an extra year of service time in Ryan.

[Mike Sixel]

14 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

The 2025 midseason update on Fangraphs had them both FV50. They both moved up after the deadline. Tolle had not pitched at all during the season. Arias had hit .198 in June and July. They would have been trading for a player who hadn’t pitched and a player that was really struggling with the bat. Their value to the time was not much different than Martin and SWR except that the Twins would have given up an extra year of service time in Ryan.

Ya...... Martin was never close to Arias in rank. Not even close. Plus, that's a fair trade.... It just didn't work for Minnesota. 

[old nurse]

2 hours ago, ashbury said:

Sometimes being risk averse is the biggest risk.

Of course I don't know what the Twins' talent evaluators were telling Falvey.

I refreshed my memory and when mlb.com's prospect rankings were released in 2025 they had Tolle as #16 in the Sox system.  That's a whole 'nother smoke.

Could be a little revisionist history going today.

From an article last year that quoted the athletic writer

Jhostynxon Garcia, also known as “The Password,” was part of the deal Boston put together, but the overall package, according to McCaffrey, "was not substantial enough to land Ryan."

 

[TheLeviathan]

3 hours ago, weitz41 said:

I'm not certain that guy said FUN Leviathan..

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, DataNerd said:

That ranking was off of Tolle being the 50th overall pick and not having thrown in the pros.  He then proceded to run a 38 K%/7BB% in A+, then a 37/7 in AA.  He had a massive up arrow next to his name halfway through the year.

That's all well and good, and probably better reflects thinking at the trade deadline a year ago.  My real point is that we're looking backward at things from a 20-20 perspective now, and what seems like a slam dunk now may have looked different to different eyes back then.  I can imagine all the screaming if Ryan had been let go for two prospects who weren't even at AAA.  We know that prospects can fail; knowing what we know now changes everything because a large part of the uncertainty a year ago is now resolved in favor of both these prospects, which is not necessarily the odds-on outcome. (SWR and Austin Martin, anyone?)

And despite seeing this report in print now, there were varying and conflicting reports back then on what might have been offered, and IMO everything needs to be taken with a grain of salt.  It's all might-have-been.

Do I wish the Twins FO had pulled the trigger on what's being discussed?  Yes, now, of course.  Then?  Probably, because I am a prospect-clutcher.  But it's largely moot because I don't recall this particular offer being discussed back then.

[ashbury]

17 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

Tick tock, my friend.

[Mike Sixel]

6 minutes ago, ashbury said:

That's all well and good, and probably better reflects thinking at the trade deadline a year ago.  My real point is that we're looking backward at things from a 20-20 perspective now, and what seems like a slam dunk now may have looked different to different eyes back then.  I can imagine all the screaming if Ryan had been let go for two prospects who weren't even at AAA.  We know that prospects can fail; knowing what we know now changes everything because a large part of the uncertainty a year ago is now resolved in favor of both these prospects, which is not necessarily the odds-on outcome. (SWR and Austin Martin, anyone?)

And despite seeing this report in print now, there were varying and conflicting reports back then on what might have been offered, and IMO everything needs to be taken with a grain of salt.  It's all might-have-been.

Do I wish the Twins FO had pulled the trigger on what's being discussed?  Yes, now, of course.  Then?  Probably, because I am a prospect-clutcher.  But it's largely moot because I don't recall this particular offer being discussed back then.

I could care less if they are at AAA. Below AA? Sure. 

I also have doubts this is real. 

[ashbury]

2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I could care less if they are at AAA. Below AA? Sure. 

I also have doubts this is real. 

As I implied, high-end talent is generally unavailable via trade once it reaches AAA and doesn't fizzle, so you have to be willing to grab it if offered at AA or lower.  (Cf. Eduardo Tait, gamble though he may be).  If someone won't take these prospects, they should just follow through their train of thought and admit they aren't willing to trade for top, affordable, controllable talent.

As for whether this bit of intel is "real", I kind of look at trade rumors as like electrons.  The picture they always showed at the dawn of the Atomic Age was this:  While today I believe it's more like this:  .  There's probably a Schoedinger's Cat analogy out there too, that every "cloud" of trade rumors remains in multiple parallel states until the respective front offices "open the box" and the cloud collapses down to one specific outcome.  @Craig Arkomay wish to refine my tongue in cheek analogy, since my Physics training is ancient and rusty.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

From a baseball standpoint, trading a 30 year old pitcher who missed time in 2024 and has dealt with two injury scares, albeit one incredibly short, in 2026, is the move. But, hard to support it if the return package is a lottery ticket. If a controllable pitcher was coming back, I could get behind it. As part of a sell off, white flag scenario, meh, I don't like it.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

The offer as I understood it was 1 or the other not both.  Even if it was even today I’m not sure I take it.  We needed Ryan this year especially with Pablo going down.  There is value in leading these kids the right way. I’ve always been ready to do the full tear dow, but the time to trade was this offseason and Tom said no.

[arby58]

This is hindsight. If the Twins had made that trade last year, most everybody would have been shouting FIRE FALVEY.

[tony&rodney]

What is the point of discussing whether an offer last year would have worked out. While I do not buy lottery tickets, this sounds too much like "Those are the numbers I always use but ...."

There are opportunities now and there will be again in November/the offseason.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

4 hours ago, ashbury said:

Sometimes being risk averse is the biggest risk.

Of course I don't know what the Twins' talent evaluators were telling Falvey.

I refreshed my memory and when mlb.com's prospect rankings were released in 2025 they had Tolle as #16 in the Sox system.  That's a whole 'nother smoke.

Could be a little revisionist history going today.

Looks better today than it did a year ago. But hind-sight is 20/20.