Report: Twins Were Offered Two Top Red Sox Prospects for Joe Ryan at Last Year's Deadline

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Ya...... Martin was never close to Arias in rank. Not even close. Plus, that's a fair trade.... It just didn't work for Minnesota. 

Martin was ranked #40 entering the 2021 season by Fangraphs. Arias was ranked #37 entering the 2025 season. Martin was an FV55. Arias was an FV 50. The midseason update that trade year moved Martin to FV 50. Arias remained FV50. Arias was an FV35+ in 2024. 

[Andy MacPhail]

4 hours ago, ashbury said:

Sometimes being risk averse is the biggest risk.

Of course I don't know what the Twins' talent evaluators were telling Falvey.

I refreshed my memory and when mlb.com's prospect rankings were released in 2025 they had Tolle as #16 in the Sox system.  That's a whole 'nother smoke.

Could be a little revisionist history going today.

I agree it's complete hindsight & is ridiculous to rehash. Campbell was higher in prospect rankings than Arias; how did he turn out? We had 2 very good SS prospects, why would we want another? Tolle was #16. I don't think I'd do that trade either when it was offered.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

As I implied, high-end talent is generally unavailable via trade once it reaches AAA and doesn't fizzle, so you have to be willing to grab it if offered at AA or lower.  (Cf. Eduardo Tait, gamble though he may be).  If someone won't take these prospects, they should just follow through their train of thought and admit they aren't willing to trade for top, affordable, controllable talent.

As for whether this bit of intel is "real", I kind of look at trade rumors as like electrons.  The picture they always showed at the dawn of the Atomic Age was this:  While today I believe it's more like this:  .  There's probably a Schoedinger's Cat analogy out there too, that every "cloud" of trade rumors remains in multiple parallel states until the respective front offices "open the box" and the cloud collapses down to one specific outcome.  @Craig Arkomay wish to refine my tongue in cheek analogy, since my Physics training is ancient and rusty.

Schoendinger's cat? I had to look that up. I still don't understand what the hell that means.  Who puts a cat in a box with a flask of poison and a radio active source ,which could possible cause the flask to burst, releasing the poison, thereby killing the cat?  That is similar to putting a baby in a cradle high in a tree top and waiting for the wind to blow. Ashbury, based on your post about that darn cat, I either have 1) a new-found respect for your  vastly  superior knowledge...or  2) I have just lost what little respect I had for your limited  knowledge. Can you predict whether #1 is true, thereby making #2 false, or  #2 is true, thereby making # 1 false?   Here is a hint: 2>1.  PS I hope you know that I am trying to be funny. I have always enjoyed your posts ,Ashbury, and I have found some to be extremely  humorous and  100% to be kind and full of wisdom.   I would enjoy buying you a beer and talking about baseball, if our paths every cross. 

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

Martin was ranked #40 entering the 2021 season by Fangraphs. Arias was ranked #37 entering the 2025 season. Martin was an FV55. Arias was an FV 50. The midseason update that trade year moved Martin to FV 50. Arias remained FV50. Arias was an FV35+ in 2024. 

My bad. Thanks. Like I said, it was a fair trade, it just didn't work.

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

PS I hope you know that I am trying to be funny.

I did manage to field the wicked one-hopper you sent my way.  Thanks for the chuckle.

PS, you are best advised to go with the limited-knowledge option.

[Eris]

This is really not new. The linked article is from August 2025. Article also indicates the the Twins wanted a major league outfielder—reports at the time was that this was Jarren Duran (who is having a horrible year). 
 

https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-red-sox/2025/08/02/red-sox-craig-breslow-twins-joe-ryan-offer/

 

[jemihami]

11 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I could care less if they are at AAA. Below AA? Sure. 

I also have doubts this is real. 

There were rumors of other players being involved too, so I'm with you on your thinking. Fact is, we'll never know for certain.

[Rigby]

45 minutes ago, Eris said:

This is really new. The linked article is from August 2025. Article also indicates the the Twins wanted a major league outfielder—reports at the time was that this was Jarren Duran (who is having a horrible year). 
 

https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-red-sox/2025/08/02/red-sox-craig-breslow-twins-joe-ryan-offer/

 

Read that and a couple of other articles last year after the deadline. Each had Arias and Tolle mentioned as the two key pieces with Garcia as a possibility. Thanks for linking. My memory is not completely gone...

[jorgenswest]

9 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

My bad. Thanks. Like I said, it was a fair trade, it just didn't work.

It didn’t work yet. They just need one of the two to make it work. The Berrios deal was a fair one made great when they took his salary slot and filled it with Gray.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

It didn’t work yet. They just need one of the two to make it work. The Berrios deal was a fair one made great when they took his salary slot and filled it with Gray.

People often forget that part, that they actually reinvested the money in a good player. 

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, Eris said:

This is really not new. The linked article is from August 2025. Article also indicates the the Twins wanted a major league outfielder—reports at the time was that this was Jarren Duran (who is having a horrible year). 
 

https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-red-sox/2025/08/02/red-sox-craig-breslow-twins-joe-ryan-offer/

 

Ugh. Now I am annoyed. 

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

People often forget that part, that they actually reinvested the money in a good player. 

It makes for an interesting thought experiment.

Would you trade Berrios's remaining team control for two years of Sonny Gray (as they were scouted at the time, or as their respective seasons played out)?

Would you trade Chase Petty for SWR and Austin Martin (as they were scouted at the time, or as their respective seasons played out)?

This prompted me to check in again on Petty.  I wasn't aware that he has resurfaced in the majors, after a rough introduction.  His last 10 games, all in relief during garbage time in blowouts, show a 2.76 ERA across 16.1 innings.  FIP is a little less kind at 3.63.  He's 23 and getting his feet wet in the majors.  Much as I cherish the personal memories of the 2023 post-season series against Toronto, I'm not quite ready to close the books on the Sonny Gray trade, 

Anyway, both my imaginary trades are a lot harder for me to decide on than I expected.  With perfect hindsight, I see the "trade" of the two major leaguers as approximately a wash, and of the prospects I'd certainly like to still have Petty instead of the two washouts.  But trades actually have to be made without hindsight, and I bought into SWR's promise.

[Seth Stohs]

18 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Brutal if true. This team would be so much better off with that deal. I doubt you can get Tolle straight up for Ryan right now. 

They just traded Connelly Early for Curtis Mead... they certainly would deal Tolle for Ryan... But no way they'd get both.

It's the crazy side of the trade deadline and of prospects in general. Both of those guys were back-of-the-top 100 guys last year. Arias wasn't really known. It looks like a great package now, but I don't blame Falvey/Zoll for not doing it at that time. 

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Seth Stohs said:

They just traded Connelly Early for Curtis Mead... they certainly would deal Tolle for Ryan... But no way they'd get both.

It's the crazy side of the trade deadline and of prospects in general. Both of those guys were back-of-the-top 100 guys last year. Arias wasn't really known. It looks like a great package now, but I don't blame Falvey/Zoll for not doing it at that time. 

Why would they deal Tolle for Ryan? They need pitching. 

[Rigby]

MLB Pipeline's August 2025 mid-season update (11 days after trade deadline) had Arias at 24 and Tolle at 28.

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, Rigby said:

MLB Pipeline's August 2025 mid-season update (11 days after trade deadline) had Arias at 24 and Tolle at 28.

Fangraphs had them 25 and 58 right before the trade deadline. 

Also the OF the twins wanted isn't all that good......

[darin617]

On 7/25/2026 at 4:48 PM, Mike Sixel said:

Brutal if true. This team would be so much better off with that deal. I doubt you can get Tolle straight up for Ryan right now. 

If you look at the Mead for Early trade Boston just made I would think the Twins could get more.

[twinstalker]

Well, the Twins deserve what they get if they passed on that.

[Mike Sixel]

14 minutes ago, darin617 said:

If you look at the Mead for Early trade Boston just made I would think the Twins could get more.

What more? Go look at their farm. Also, I'm not sure what you mean? They traded an injured pitcher, right?

[Mike Sixel]

I do understand why the Twins did not trade Ryan with 2.5 years left. It's just a bummer they didn't take that deal. 

[JD-TWINS]

On 7/25/2026 at 6:31 PM, ashbury said:

Sometimes being risk averse is the biggest risk.

Of course I don't know what the Twins' talent evaluators were telling Falvey.

I refreshed my memory and when mlb.com's prospect rankings were released in 2025 they had Tolle as #16 in the Sox system.  That's a whole 'nother smoke.

Could be a little revisionist history going today.

Lots & lots of prospects look a hell of a lot better 12 months later……… another article so people can bitch about Falvey.

Rojas & Roden for Varland is/was a good trade.

Duran for Abel & Tait is a good trade.

Jax for Bradley is a good trade.

The three guys acquired very well may be 3 of Team’s 5 rotation pieces in ‘27. I understand the EMOTIONS but gotta be realistic.

They acquired 23 year old lefty that throws 95-97 & a talented right hander at age 24 & a guy that touches 100 mph a couple times a game at age 25.

Roden & Tait are essentially throw-ins.

Jax - age 31

Varland - age 28

Duran - age 28

Again, I get being upset & emotional but the trades make a hell of a lot of sense!

[Greglw3]

My question is where has this Alex Speir been for almost a year. If that was the offer, it would have been reported long before now. There’s not one other collaborating report of that offer for the last year. The trade that was wrongly reported on ESPN involved neither of those guys.

Besides, we need to keep Joe Ryan. We made a great trade for him and you win with pitching. Before his tired arm performance he was a Cy Young candidate. You build around players like that, give them an extension if at all possible.

Otherwise you’ll have a franchise like the Montreal Expos used to have, constantly churning out great prospects, having a bright future, then always letting them walk. One reason why there is no Montreal Expos anymore.

Build around Joe Ryan, Taj Bradley, Mick Abel, Connor Prielipp and Kendry Rojas. Try to engineer a trade for Emerson Hancock of the M’s and trade Larnach to Houston for Peter Lambert and call up Walker Jenkins to take Larnach’s spot. Get Culpepper up and start him for the rest of the season at SS. And extend Jeffers. Tom Pohlad "Go Big or go home". Put up or shut up!

[mnfireman]

Real easy to look back now and say they should have done it, but a AA LHP and A+ INF would have been hard to take last year. I'm sure the Twins wanted more than just those two (Duran? Anthony? Garcia? Some combination of 2 of the 3?) and BOS said no.

[mnfireman]

Larnach will not bring back Lambert, he's having a better season than Ryan and you certainly wouldn't trade Ryan for Larnach if that was a possibility. 

Seattle is not trading Hancock, they are in the play-off hunt (almost every year) and he doesn't become arb eligible until 2028.

 

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, mnfireman said:

Larnach will not bring back Lambert, he's having a better season than Ryan and you certainly wouldn't trade Ryan for Larnach if that was a possibility. 

Seattle is not trading Hancock, they are in the play-off hunt (almost every year) and he doesn't become arb eligible until 2028.

 

They're rumored to be shopping him, because they have the best pitching prospect sitting around in the minors and need hitting. They are rumored to be shopping two starters before next year.....

[Greglw3]

48 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

Larnach will not bring back Lambert, he's having a better season than Ryan and you certainly wouldn't trade Ryan for Larnach if that was a possibility. 

Seattle is not trading Hancock, they are in the play-off hunt (almost every year) and he doesn't become arb eligible until 2028.

 

Yes, Lambert is having a good year, better than Joe Ryan is arguable. Also, at age 29, this is Lambert’s first and only remotely respectable season in his career. The Astros have a burning need for a left handed hitting outfielder. Whoever the best starter is that Larnach could being back, I’d go for it as long as it’s a solid #3 starter and bring up Walker Jenkins to take Larnach’s place.