Report: Twins Were Offered Two Top Red Sox Prospects for Joe Ryan at Last Year's Deadline

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Ya...... Martin was never close to Arias in rank. Not even close. Plus, that's a fair trade.... It just didn't work for Minnesota. 

Martin was ranked #40 entering the 2021 season by Fangraphs. Arias was ranked #37 entering the 2025 season. Martin was an FV55. Arias was an FV 50. The midseason update that trade year moved Martin to FV 50. Arias remained FV50. Arias was an FV35+ in 2024. 

[Andy MacPhail]

4 hours ago, ashbury said:

Sometimes being risk averse is the biggest risk.

Of course I don't know what the Twins' talent evaluators were telling Falvey.

I refreshed my memory and when mlb.com's prospect rankings were released in 2025 they had Tolle as #16 in the Sox system.  That's a whole 'nother smoke.

Could be a little revisionist history going today.

I agree it's complete hindsight & is ridiculous to rehash. Campbell was higher in prospect rankings than Arias; how did he turn out? We had 2 very good SS prospects, why would we want another? Tolle was #16. I don't think I'd do that trade either when it was offered.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

As I implied, high-end talent is generally unavailable via trade once it reaches AAA and doesn't fizzle, so you have to be willing to grab it if offered at AA or lower.  (Cf. Eduardo Tait, gamble though he may be).  If someone won't take these prospects, they should just follow through their train of thought and admit they aren't willing to trade for top, affordable, controllable talent.

As for whether this bit of intel is "real", I kind of look at trade rumors as like electrons.  The picture they always showed at the dawn of the Atomic Age was this:  While today I believe it's more like this:  .  There's probably a Schoedinger's Cat analogy out there too, that every "cloud" of trade rumors remains in multiple parallel states until the respective front offices "open the box" and the cloud collapses down to one specific outcome.  @Craig Arkomay wish to refine my tongue in cheek analogy, since my Physics training is ancient and rusty.

Schoendinger's cat? I had to look that up. I still don't understand what the hell that means.  Who puts a cat in a box with a flask of poison and a radio active source ,which could possible cause the flask to burst, releasing the poison, thereby killing the cat?  That is similar to putting a baby in a cradle high in a tree top and waiting for the wind to blow. Ashbury, based on your post about that darn cat, I either have 1) a new-found respect for your  vastly  superior knowledge...or  2) I have just lost what little respect I had for your limited  knowledge. Can you predict whether #1 is true, thereby making #2 false, or  #2 is true, thereby making # 1 false?   Here is a hint: 2>1.  PS I hope you know that I am trying to be funny. I have always enjoyed your posts ,Ashbury, and I have found some to be extremely  humorous and  100% to be kind and full of wisdom.   I would enjoy buying you a beer and talking about baseball, if our paths every cross. 

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

Martin was ranked #40 entering the 2021 season by Fangraphs. Arias was ranked #37 entering the 2025 season. Martin was an FV55. Arias was an FV 50. The midseason update that trade year moved Martin to FV 50. Arias remained FV50. Arias was an FV35+ in 2024. 

My bad. Thanks. Like I said, it was a fair trade, it just didn't work.

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

PS I hope you know that I am trying to be funny.

I did manage to field the wicked one-hopper you sent my way.  Thanks for the chuckle.

PS, you are best advised to go with the limited-knowledge option.