The Hitters Who've Gotten the Twins Here Are, Paradoxically, the Ones Getting in the Way

[Nick Nelson]

Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

Alan Roden started five games last week after joining the Minnesota Twins roster in place of Byron Buxton. That might be all the time he gets, for now — Buxton is eligible to return from the injured list on Friday. Nearly a year after they acquired him as an ostensibly MLB-ready outfielder, the 26-year-old Roden has made a total of 56 plate appearances with the Twins, spending a vast majority of his time in Triple-A or on the IL.

If we get to the end of this year and that remains the case, it'll feel like a failure in follow-through for this rebuilding (?) team. Roden was a key part of the return for Louis Varland, now the AL's best closer. Not only will the Twins have gotten no value from Roden, but they won't have learned much of anything about him in the span of a season and a half.

Alas, as things stand, the path to regular playing time for a healthy Roden is basically non-existent. Buxton is an All-Star center fielder. Trevor Larnach is just behind Buxton in terms of productivity (.366 wOBA), thriving with a regular routine in left field. Meanwhile, Luke Keaschall has transitioned from infield to outfield and, so far, not looked back. His bat is coming on strong, with a .303/.418/.449 slash line in his past 30 games.

Buxton and Keaschall aren't going anywhere. Larnach could be a different story. There is merit to the idea of trading him, even in a buyer context: sell high, free up payroll (~$2 million), and fall back on ample depth that includes Roden, Matt Wallner, Walker Jenkins, Gabriel Gonzalez, Kody Clemens and eventually Emmanuel Rodriguez. It's a strategically sound concept for a creative front office.

But then you take a step back and say, really? The Twins are competing for a playoff spot and they're going to trade their leadoff hitter, who's been integral to a league-leading scoring offense, for a prospect or middle reliever? All to make room for a guy like Roden who was proven nothing as a big-leaguer? Seems kind of ludicrous when you put it that way.

The same dynamic takes shape elsewhere across the roster. One solution to the outfield logjam — one that I sort of favor, in theory — would be shifting Buxton primarily to DH for the second half in order to preserve his health and keep him in the lineup. In that scenario, you could use Keaschall in center and give Roden some real run in right field. 

The problem is that Josh Bell is now the everyday designated hitter. I guess it's hard to call that a "problem" because Bell has been a dream-come-true at the position, with a .971 OPS in the past month, but his inflexible usage does create certain blockages. 

The argument for shopping Bell at the deadline is similar to Larnach: depth to replace him, salary relief to reinvest, and a lack of future fit. But the contradictory logic is also the same: You're going to trade the cleanup hitter who's been driving your offense to this point? And that's supposed to make your team better?

Ryan Jeffers is another example, and maybe the most pressing. His return from the injured list last week has compelled the Twins to carry three catchers, including Alex Jackson who figures to rarely be used. The sticking point is that Jackson is out of options, and would likely be claimed off waivers if designated for assignment. Jackson has looked good enough to position himself as the team's backup catcher next year behind Victor Caratini. 

If the Twins are out of contention, the path forward is simple: trade the free-agency-bound Jeffers for what you can get, and spend the rest of the year working in your 2027 catching tandem. (You can afford to deal with the wasted roster spot in the meantime, because the games don't matter.)

If the Twins are firmly in contention, and a legit threat in the American League, the path forward is also simple: hold Jeffers past the deadline and don't worry so much about losing Jackson. When you're playing in the now, you can't overly worry about tomorrow.

Where the Twins are, a game below .500 at the All-Star break, is stuck weirdly in the middle. They are legitimately in postseason contention, primarily due to the overall shabbiness of the league, but still long shots to reach October and longer shots to advance. This puts their front office in a fascinating spot as the trade deadline approaches. In the likelihood the team misses the playoffs, you don't want to look back with regret at opportunities missed. At the same time, you also don't want to hinder your chances to capitalize on what's in front of you, especially with an edict seemingly coming down from ownership to push.

Personally, I'm interested in seeing this season through but I'm mainly setting my sights on 2027 as the opening of a true championship window: a rotation led by Joe Ryan, Pablo López and Taj Bradley along with a more fully-formed bullpen and an emerging lineup bolstered by newly arriving top prospects. That's a team you can really start believing in, especially if Tom Pohlad is prepared to invest as he claims.

Do the Twins want to take further steps now to maximize that window, or are they more inclined to stay focused on the present in pursuit of a postseason berth in this wide-open AL landscape? There are big trade-offs either way, setting up heavy implications for the front office's looming deadline decisions.

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[DJL44]

This is not currently a championship level team. The benefit from reaching the playoffs this season is in allowing the younger players to gain playoff experience. If they trade Jeffers for more talent but finish one game back of the last wild card spot, so be it.

[SarasotaBill]

Don't get distracted by 2026. All decisions should be based on 2027 and after.

Trade Jeffers, Larnach, and Bell.

Keep Ryan and try to extend him.

[Whitey333]

Yes.  Trading Jeffers is a must since we risk losing him in free agency for nothing.  All we here about are these great prospects we have.  It's fast approaching the time to play them or trade them.  Unless of course they aren't as good as all the hype.  But we will never know unless they play.

[mikelink45]

Fascinating conundrum.  Larnach created this problem by turning his career around and looking like the player we dreamed about.  We proved we can survive without Jeffers so he would be the first I would look to trade and with the addition of one of our prospects we should be able to get something back that is more than Roden level. 

Now that extension for Ryan sounds good to me and the fans - I doubt it sounds so good to Ryan and his agent.

[bean5302]

27 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Fascinating conundrum.  Larnach created this problem by turning his career around and looking like the player we dreamed about.  We proved we can survive without Jeffers so he would be the first I would look to trade and with the addition of one of our prospects we should be able to get something back that is more than Roden level. 

Now that extension for Ryan sounds good to me and the fans - I doubt it sounds so good to Ryan and his agent.

I was thinking he finally figured it out as recent as yesterday. I forgot to look at his splits. Larnach is being utterly shielded against lefties. He's exactly who he was a couple years ago, a platoon DH. As a platoon DH, his value maxes out in the 1.5 WAR range. He's over that atm with a lot of left field positional value (where he's... playable) and some luck floating him. Still a valuable player to somebody, but his 400 PA ceiling limits how much he can really do for us.

[Trov]

The fact that the offense has been good, even with Jeffers on the IL for extended period, gives the team the ability to trade him.  The question is for what?  Do you trade for pen help now, or prospects down the road?  I think if you can flip him for pitching you can control for several years that is the best trade.  

Larnach is one that I have said was a DFA guy, and they kept him and he has been good this year.  If you can trade him for something I say do it.  He is at the peak of his value for the Twins, but he is going to be 30 next year, doubt we sign him, and doubt he gets much more than a 1 year deal, maybe a vest option type thing from someone.  He is not someone we should bank on being a long term option to take away from all our other many options in the system. 

Bell, I had a forum on if his offense outburst could give value to trade him, and most of the poster hear laughed at the notion.  I still think there will be a team willing to take him on, but you are not getting a ton in return.  Could we get a lower end pen guy for him, possibly, but nothing that move the needle either way.  His offense has helped a ton this past month in half, but can you replace that with someone from AAA and use the DH as more rotation? 

I think Jeffers will get moved simply because he has most value and not likely to resign long term.  He can be moved and have least impact, at least that is how the offense has been without him. The other two have guys behind them that can fill in, and might not be a big draw back if you can improve the pen enough. 

[umterp23]

Next 7 games (at Cubs for 3 and at Guardians for 4)really will tell the story as to where they are headed come deadline day. Losing road trip, especially a 2-5 scenario would be death nails lining the coffin. I still think you need to trade Jeffers if he stays where consistent with his performance. Larnach has some value but what are you going to replace him with in the lineup? His value offensively will never be higher, defense is another story, if we stink it up on roadtrip, does ownership group waive the flag again? Team has many flaws top to bottom on the field that this looks like a crap shoot as to what will happen

[chpettit19]

I agree they're in a very interesting spot, and don't have any issue with people wanting to go after the playoffs in a year when the league is so down at this point. But I'd still trade Jeffers and Ryan. The Twins are still below .500. If they go on an absolute heater like 11-5 or something before the deadline, I'd reconsider. But if they're still struggling to get to, and stay above, .500, I'm pointing my efforts straight at 2027 and beyond. 

Again, I understand people wanting to play for this year, but I'm just not interested in being a "playoff contender" simply because the league is down so far. To me, that just means most of the AL (11 teams?) are going to be focused on this year and not doing more to build for the future. If Anaheim, KC, and Vegas/Sacramento are the only clear "sellers" in the AL, I sell Jeffers and Ryan and give myself more of a boost heading into 2027 while the other 11 squads are standing still on that front. I want true contenders, not just a below .500 team that is in the fight because the rest of the league has also struggled.