Pablo López’s Injury Changes Everything and It Is Time for the Twins to Trade Joe Ryan

[Matthew Taylor]

Image courtesy of Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

The 2026 Minnesota Twins entered spring training with a clear identity. If there was one area this roster could hang its hat on, it was starting pitching. That strength was supposed to give the Twins a path, however narrow, to relevance and possibly even a surprise playoff push.

That plan lasted exactly one day.

Twins ace Pablo López suffered a torn UCL on the first day of spring training, an injury expected to sideline him for the entirety of the 2026 season. In one moment, the Twins lost the pitcher they were most reliant on to anchor the rotation.

In the wake of that injury, the Twins need to reassess their direction, and that reassessment should lead to one clear conclusion: It is time to trade Joe Ryan.

Even before López went down, the Twins' margin for error was already slim. The idea was never that Minnesota could contend with a merely solid rotation. Their chances rested on starting pitching being outstanding in order to offset a lineup filled with question marks and a bullpen that lacked proven reliability.

Without López, that scenario becomes increasingly difficult to envision.

Every remaining starter is now pushed up a rung in responsibility. The first depth arm in St. Paul, whoever that would have been, is no longer a depth option but a necessary member of the rotation. Any flexibility the Twins may have had to deploy a starter in a hybrid bullpen role, similar to how Louie Varland had been used just last season, is now gone as well.

Even if starting pitching remains the team’s relative strength, that says more about the rest of the roster than it does about the rotation’s ceiling. A good rotation is not enough for this team. The Twins needed an elite one, and without López it is hard to imagine a realistic scenario in which they reach that level.

The projections reflect that reality. FanGraphs gave the Twins a 31% chance to make the playoffs before the injury. Following Lopez’s diagnosis, that number has dropped to 26.5%, with Vegas moving the Twins' win total to just 73.5 games.

The odds were already low. Now they are even lower.

That context makes Ryan’s situation impossible to ignore. He is 29 years old and firmly in the prime of his career, coming off a season in which he earned his first All-Star selection while posting a career-best 3.42 ERA. He also has two full seasons of team control remaining, which matters greatly in the current pitching market.

That market has changed. The free agent pool of starting pitchers has largely dried up, leaving trades as the primary avenue for contenders to improve their rotations. There may not be a more attractive starter realistically available than Ryan, who is durable, effective, controllable, and producing at a peak level.

The Twins already know the interest is real. At last season’s trade deadline, during the team’s fire sale in which 10 players were moved, Ryan nearly became the 11th. Advanced talks with the Boston Red Sox never materialized into a deal, but speculation followed Ryan into the offseason as many wondered whether the Twins would ultimately trade him, López, or both.

 

The Twins chose to hold onto their starters with the belief that pitching could carry the 2026 roster. That bet didn't work out. 

Whether it means reopening discussions with Boston, a team that still enters the season with questions at the back of its rotation, or engaging another contender looking to stockpile pitching depth, the Twins should be aggressive. Injuries happen every spring. Another team could quickly find itself desperate for a starting pitcher, and Minnesota should be prepared to capitalize.

It was arguable that the Twins should have traded Ryan during last year’s fire sale. It was arguable that they could have done it this offseason. After López’s injury, it is no longer debatable.

Ryan would command a significant prospect return, the kind of capital that could help reset the organization’s timeline and better position the Twins for the future. With each passing month, his value declines as his remaining team control decreases.

There is also an uncomfortable reality the Twins just experienced firsthand. Health is far from guaranteed, especially for starting pitchers. What happened to Lopez this spring could just as easily happen to Ryan. While no one could have predicted López’s injury, the decision not to trade him now looks like a missed opportunity in hindsight. The Twins cannot afford to risk another one.

With a healthy Ryan who may never have more trade value than he does right now, the Twins should cash in.

López’s injury did not just remove an ace from the rotation. It fundamentally altered the Twins competitive outlook for 2026. The path that once existed, however narrow, has become even smaller. In that context, holding onto Ryan no longer makes sense. Trading him now offers the Twins their best chance to extract meaningful value, mitigate risk, and begin charting a more realistic course forward.

What do you think? Should the Twins move Joe Ryan now and lean into a reset, or is there still a case for holding onto him despite the long odds? Leave a comment below and start the conversation!

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[JBK]

First week of Spring Training, and they'll already throwing in the towel. Why not throw a confidence vote towards the starting rotation and keep going in a positive direction?

[SarasotaBill]

Wait two months and let's see the results. 

Ryan in the rotation eases the bullpen which affects the games he doesn't pitch.

We will know a lot more in two months about the number of young players on the roster as well.

Most likely he will be traded at the deadline when teams have a better idea if they have a chance to win the World Series. 

[LewFordLives]

I know the article reflects the opinion of a lot of fans, but I just don't get this line of thinking. By trading Ryan now they are telegraphing to everyone that they are not going to compete this year. Then why should I even bother watching the games?  Fangraphs says they have a 27 percent chance of making the playoffs. By my Minnesota math that's greater than zero. At least let things roll for the first half of the season. Maybe they will catch lightning in a bottle. If they are ten games out at the trade deadline then reevaluate.

[mikelink45]

No - whether we have any hope this year or not, Ryan is needed to give the young pitcher one veteran to look up to and steady the ship.  Ober is trying to recover his effectiveness and is not ready to be the staff ACE.  

[Cory Engelhardt]

I think it’s more likely to have him get 16 starts and move in July. 
 

[rv78]

Agree with those that think he should stay at least until the trade deadline. On top of that, Tom isn't going to take away the chance for the fans to go to Target Field for a game, when they have a pitcher starting the game, that actually gives them a chance to win. The days he pitches at Target Field, will undoubtably have bigger crowds.

[CRF]

There should be absolutely no rush to trade him. Let's face it...they're not going anywhere with him in the rotation, and they certainly wouldn't be going anywhere without him in the rotation. Once it gets closer to the deadline, then it would be the right time to see if there's a deal to be made. This is gonna be a very long season no matter what. 

[Whitey333]

I agree with the article.  Ryan should have been traded well before Lopez injury.  Lopez should have been traded way before this too.  He had an injury riddled season last year and with a high salary on a low budget team he should have been dealt.  Ryan the past two seasons has had great first half but very mediocre second halves.  He should be dealt while the Twins can get something good for him.  This teams lack of any meaningful additions this off season is a clear indication they had no intention of being competitive in 2026.  They should also give serious consideration to trading Jeffers as he will be a free agent soon.  Ask Buxton to waiver hus no trade clause and send him out too.  

[NYCTK]

35 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

By trading Ryan now they are telegraphing to everyone that they are not going to compete this year. Then why should I even bother watching the games?

Let's be honest, the front office sent that telegraph already. They sent it back in July and then sent out a reminder, but then their boss sent out a follow up saying they were just kidding. 

Trading away one starting pitcher only changes the roster in 20% of the games, so you still have the exact same reason to watch in 80% of their games. 

And just like losing Pablo Lopez had a real but small effect on their fangraphs playoff odds, trading Ryan would have a similar effect. From small, to slightly smaller, to slightly smaller yet. Artificially boosted by the fact that they exist in the worst division in baseball. 

It was obviously the correct decision to trade Ryan in November, which means it's still the right decision today. Other teams are sure to have situations arise, similar to the Twins own with Pablo Lopez, meaning the market is still alive and will continue to exist through spring training. 

[sweetmusicviola16]

If the right offer were proposed, absolutely trade him. 

[Major League Ready]

12 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Let's be honest, the front office sent that telegraph already. They sent it back in July and then sent out a reminder, but then their boss sent out a follow up saying they were just kidding. 

Trading away one starting pitcher only changes the roster in 20% of the games, so you still have the exact same reason to watch in 80% of their games. 

And just like losing Pablo Lopez had a real but small effect on their fangraphs playoff odds, trading Ryan would have a similar effect. From small, to slightly smaller, to slightly smaller yet. Artificially boosted by the fact that they exist in the worst division in baseball. 

It was obviously the correct decision to trade Ryan in November, which means it's still the right decision today. Other teams are sure to have situations arise, similar to the Twins own with Pablo Lopez, meaning the market is still alive and will continue to exist through spring training. 

I will probably be the most inclined to watch the games when someone is pitching that could be part of a long-term solution.  That will be 60% of the games assuming Ryan and Ober remain healthy.  of course, I will watch the games Ryan and Ober start too but there will be an extra degree of intrigue with the guys who have a chance to eventually bring us back into contention.

[Heiny]

I agree.  The time is now.  Ryan should bring top prospect talent.  Jeffers should bring next tier talent.  And if Buxton agrees to waive his trade clause, he should bring top prospect talent also, especially with his team friendly contract.  It's pretty obvious that we are going nowhere in '26.  Time to start over with our own prospects and an influx of top prospects.  We could be a contender in '28.  Either way, they will probably not be drawing much for crowds at the park.  Let's be realistic and take advantage of our trade value, as these players most likely will be gone before we become contenders again anyway.  There is no present, so let's work on the future.

[thelanges5]

Extend Joe Ryan. Time to go big or go home Tom!

[Nalinski]

Can't trade him yet.  They need to at least try to get out of the gate on a positive note.  Tough sell, I know.  Labor issues impact everything.  

[Coach JT]

The twins need to do a full rebuild . Trade Ryan and Larnach and Jeffries . Utilize young arms and bring up Rodriguez and Gonzalez and move Wallner to 1B . 

[Brandon]

We need to trade everyone with a pulse.  If you have spent 1 day in the majors, you have so much experience that we should trade you for a AA prospect.  We need to get so young that all our top prospects are in Low A ball or lower.  Let's break is down to the studs.  Jenkins is too high at AAA.  He is knocking on the door to the majors.  We need to trade him and get younger too.  In fact TC Bear is past his Prime and needs to go.  

If this sounds ridiculous to you and it should.  So should trading Ryan now because of an injury.

[Rufus]

Poppycock

[Maybebaby]

Absolutely not!  Ryan is a great base to build off and to trade him would only disgruntled BB, Royce and others.  To trade Ryan would only enhance the few faithful fans that remain and certainly gain fodder to the media to trash the already redhead stepchild in the room aka Tom P. To give this team any kind of relevance KEEP THE GOOD PLAYERS! 

[sun]

You know that if we trade him he's going to pitch a no hitter and win a CY Young Award.

[TopGunn#22]

I agree with the premise of Matthew's article.  And I would go so far as to say there is no "telegraphing" left to do.  All any team in the American League needs to do is look at the Twins current roster and calculate that the Twins are non-contenders.

This team is projected to win 73 games.  80 is the high side and very unlikely.  We will not contend in 2026.  There will be a disrupted season in 2027.  The only question is for how long.  We know it will be contentious.  The plan all along should have been to build with an eye toward 2028.  

Not trading Pablo prior to spring training was a major mistake.  No hindsight is needed to arrive at that conclusion.  We let Falvey go.  Was he advocating for the tear down in opposition to Tom Pohlad's puffery that he either goes big or goes home?  We now have our definition of Tom going big...signing Josh Bell and Victor Caratini.  I'm underwhelmed.

SOMEBODY is going to get hurt in someone's rotation.  Heck, 75% of the Dodgers rotation is in a constant state of pain.  We should be working the phones for trades involving Ryan, Larnach, Jeffers and possibly even Byron Buxton.  I might even be willing to move Royce Lewis or Matt Wallner as well, this year or next. The Twins need to look completely different by the time the 2027 season ends.

A bona fide major league SS is needed.  A CF to replace Buxton if traded is needed.  Younger, more athletic OF's are on the way with Walker Jenkins and Em-Rod.  1B is still a mess despite having about 5 guys who will play there this season. 

A major rebuild should ALWAYS have been the strategy.  That it wasn't is yet another reason why the Pohlad's should be gone and a new ownership era begins.  Once Glen Taylor decided to sell the T-Wolves the skies cleared, the sun shined, and a new era of T-Wolves basketball dawned.  It's time for the same medicine for our baseball team.  

[DataNerd]

I don't think they are going to lose a ton of value by keeping him until July, and baseball is a lot more unpredictable than many people here are acting like it is.  We went from 59 wins in 2016 to 85 in 2017.

[gil4]

I'm torn on this.  The return could be high, but teams that don't have any good starters tend to turn into a meat grinder for arms.  There are only so many pitchers you can keep on the staff, and if you have a bunch of guys who routinely use 90 pitches to get through 3-1/3 innings, it just destroys everybody.  

It's hard to develop when you are just trying to survive.

[rdehring]

Must agree with all of you who want the Twins to wait until July, then trade Ryan.  That's assuming they aren't leading the Central come July.

Also agree with those of you who propose trading him yesterday.  With one wrinkle.  Trade him now only if the return is beyond anyone's wildest dreams of what they could expect getting, ie, the Twins must be blown away.  Forget BBTV, the return has to be 1.5-to-1.0, or even 2.0-to-1.0.  And the return must include a couple young players with some MLB experience.  Players you can count on in 2026.

As for others, I could see a Jeffers trade making much more sense at this time.  Also trading Larnach should have been done over the winter.

 

[Linus]

During the off season I posted that the Twins contending was like flipping heads 5 times in a row. Well the first coin just came up tails. There was a very real risk in not dealing Pablo and Joe, the risk being injury and cratered trade value. Pablo is done and will provide very little value to the Twins. Ryan has an injury history too - if he goes down with a serious injury the Twins will have turned their best two trade assets into nothing. 

[ArraezChicken]

Wow. I am shocked how many people are against this idea. I mean, yeah, we could wait until the trade deadline, but what if Ryan gets hurt? What if he just has a bad first half? Trade him now while the value is relatively high and he's healthy. 

Edited February 21 by ArraezChicken

[Senior Softball Guy]

1 hour ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

If the right offer were proposed, absolutely trade him. 

Only if the offer is just too good to take. Wait until a team with realistic hopes of contending overpays.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Because everyone knows that trading our best pitcher will automatically lead to a playoff team in 2027 or 2028 — at least that’s the Kool-Aid that some here are drinking.  

So we trade Ryan, we go from a team a little below .500 (projections) to a team a lot below .500.  (His existence will save the bullpen more than any other pitcher we have, making other games winnable with him on the team because the bullpen isn’t always toast.   Games are less interesting to watch.  Young players flounder with less leadership.  Some don’t really develop the way they should and if things break right, we are back to the same level of team in two years.  In the meantime, we’ve all seen two years of sucky baseball.  I’m disappointed that some see the Twins’ role in MLB as being a source of talent for other teams.  

[NYCTK]

14 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I’m disappointed that some see the Twins’ role in MLB as being a source of talent for other teams.  

If you're not buying, and you're not selling, you're standing still. And when you're standing still you get left behind. 

It's not that we see the Twins as a source of talent for others. Which is especially nonsensical considering the Twins received Joe Ryan by "being a source of talent" for another team. 

[LambchoP]

I'm curious what kind of a haul we could get for Ryan, Jeffers and Buxton. I think if we get young, controllable near MLB ready talent in return, the Twins may only be a year or two away from relavence. I think this year will be a testing year to see what we've got as far as our top offensive prospects go. Jenkins, Rodriguez, Gonzalez, Culpeper, Fedko, Rosario etc. could add guys like Bradley, Abel, Rojas to that list. If we trade Ryan we need some top level pitching prospects to rebuild the rotation. Thinking guys like Early from Bosox or Tong or the other guy from NYM....