The Matt Wallner Dilemma: Real Progress or More of the Same?

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

 

Matt Wallner is entering his fifth season on the big-league roster. At this point, we kind of know what he is—and we kind of don’t.

He’s spent time in left field and at DH, but the overwhelming majority of his innings have come in right field for the Twins. That’s not by accident. He has an absolute cannon for an arm. According to Statcast, his arm strength ranked in the 99th percentile of all outfielders in 2025. It was 99th percentile in 2024 and 100th percentile in 2023. That gives him real defensive upside, despite the struggles he's had in properly positioning himself and getting to balls fast enough to let the arm play as well as it should.

Offensively, it’s been even more of a rollercoaster. In 2025, Wallner hit just .202. That’s the number that jumps off the page, and not in a good way. His on-base percentage was .311, which is respectable for someone barely clearing the Mendoza Line, but when your batting average starts with a “.20,” there’s only so much spin you can put on it. 

The expected stats don’t bail him out. His expected batting average sat at .205, right in line with the results. This wasn’t a case of screaming line drives right at defenders or terrible luck. He simply didn’t make enough consistent, high-quality contact to deserve much better. It's not exactly a mystery why he struggled; we diagnosed his problems last summer.

It’s also not the first time we’ve seen this. In 2024, Wallner broke camp with the team, but hit just .213 with 27 strikeouts in 59 plate appearances before being sent down to Triple-A. That’s understandable if you’re 22, but when you’re 26 (with multiple seasons of big-league time), those stretches feel more significant.

To his credit, he responded. After getting called back up in 2024, he hit .272 with 25 extra-base hits over his final 55 games. The swing decisions improved, and the power played better, without him completely selling out for it. That stretch created real optimism heading into 2025.

Unfortunately, it didn’t carry over consistently.

League-wide offense isn’t what it used to be. A .275 hitter today is basically what a .300 hitter was 30 years ago. Pitchers are better, velocity is up, and bullpens are deeper. Context matters. Still, it's rare to see someone hit around .200 and be a truly impactful everyday player. Yes, there are exceptions. Kyle Schwarber has done it with the Philadelphia Phillies, but he’s also launching 45-plus home runs and posting elite on-base numbers. That’s a different tier of production. Arguably, that's the right road map for Wallner, but for all his bat speed and strength, he hasn't shown the same caliber of in-game power Schwarber has.

Wallner’s 2025 pace over 162 games would’ve put him around 34 home runs, which isn’t bad. But if your profile is built around power, 34 feels more “solid” than “game-changing.” That’s roughly one home run every five games. Fellow age-27 Minnesota native Michael Busch hit 34 homers for the Cubs, but he also had a much lower strikeout rate and showed the ability to hit line drives to all fields. If you’re making your living off the long ball the way Wallner does, you’d hope for quite a bit more.

Here’s where it gets interesting.

There were real signs of progress under the hood in 2025. His strikeout rate dropped to 29%. That’s still not good, but it’s a significant improvement from the 36.4% mark in 2024. Yes, he made more bad contact, thanks to his flatter bat path, and yes, some of the strikeout decrease had to do with being more aggressive early in counts, but for a player with this much pop, being aggressive is ok.

The raw power remains very real. His barrel rate stayed comfortably better than average, and his average exit velocity hovered north of 90 mph. Both numbers were lower than in 2024, but that's the cost of making more contact. When he squares it up, it goes a long way. The question is whether he can do so more consistently this season.

Health hasn’t helped. Wallner got off to a slow start in 2025, then dealt with a midseason injury that stalled any momentum he was building. For a hitter who thrives on rhythm and timing, that matters. It’s hard to make adjustments when you’re constantly resetting.

I want to believe in Matt Wallner. I want to tell you he’s about to put it together and become a 35-homer, .250 hitter with a .350 OBP and a rocket launcher in right field. But I can’t say that with full confidence. Too many signals are garbled, or pointing in the wrong direction.

If he can push the batting average back into the .250 range, which he’s flashed before, his profile changes dramatically. A .250 hitter with a 12% walk rate and 30-plus homer power plays. Add elite arm strength (and maybe some better routes, with more experience and instruction) in right field, and now you’re talking about a very valuable player. Maybe the more likely outcome is something frustratingly but usefully in-between. PECOTA projects Wallner to hit .222/.326/.427 in 489 plate appearances this year: not fully available, not fully breaking out, but not struggling the way he did last year, either.

There’s a lot of volatility with Wallner. His floor is a streaky power bat who doesn’t make enough contact. But the ceiling is a true impact corner outfielder who changes games on both sides of the ball. That’s why 2026 feels pivotal. If he has another season like last year, it'll be hard to muster much enthusiasm next spring. Indeed, it might be some other fan base doing the mustering by then.

 

View full article

[OregonTwinsFan]

He has only had 826 MLB at-bats, so he deserves another year to figure it out. Safe to say it is a make-or-break year for Wallner. I hope he does well, but so far, he has been pretty brutal to watch.

[mikelink45]

Like you I want him to make it, but I am very disappointed with what we saw last year.  You mentioned Schwarber - he had a low BA, but he had massive power, took walks, and drove in runs.  Matt had 22 HRs and only 40 RBIs!  That is the combo that really disappoints me. 

[rdehring]

I believe you give him too much credit defensively.  Yes, he can change the game defensively.  Unfortunately, often that change isn't good.  Granted, he has a cannon for an arm.  But too often his throws aren't on target.  In the field he not only is awkward going after the ball but also misplays too many balls on the ground.  For me, he can best help the team as their DH. 

I don't see the Twins finishing the year with both Larnach and Wallner on the team.  We know who Larnach is.  Wallner still has the hope of hitting 40+ home runs.  Thus, I see Larnach being the first to depart.  If Wallner has another year like 2025, expect he will also be gone come spring 2027. 

[jmlease1]

Quote

Wallner’s 2025 pace over 162 games would’ve put him around 34 home runs, which isn’t bad. But if your profile is built around power, 34 feels more “solid” than “game-changing.” That’s roughly one home run every five games.

Just a reminder that only 33 players in MLB cleared 30 homers in 2025. 34 dingers would have tied for 15th in MLB, and only 7 players cleared 40 homers last season. It's pretty dang hard to get to that level.

Wallner isn't going to add much defensively; his poor quickness, bad routes, and slow reactions aren't good, and while his arm is excellent and will keep some players from taking an extra base, the impact is still much smaller defensively. So he's got to hit. 

The power production is good enough and his ability to get on base by taking walks and letting inside pitches bounce off him that he doesn't need to be a high average hitter to have success; it just can't be flirting with the mendoza line. If he's hanging out around .230 the other numbers should put him in a good position to be an impactful hitter. fewer grounders, more line drives and suddenly his quality of contact starts looking better, the BABIP shoots up and that OPS starts sitting in the .800+ range again.

There's going to be some slumps, and the K's will mean that some people will never like him or give him the benefit of the doubt at any time, ever. He's probably better suited to DHing and avoiding LHP as much as possible, and moving on from Larnach would make that more possible?

We'll see. he seems ripe for a bounce back season; unlike Julien he followed up his breakout year with another quality effort, even if it did require a minor-league reset. He's got a career OPS+ of 127 and that certainly seems achievable and would be a welcome threat in the lineup.

[DJL44]

I think PECOTA has him figured out pretty well. Batting average between .210 and .230 is likely. I don't think he has impact player upside, but a .760 OPS with okay defense is playable.

[NYCTK]

For all this talk about how "elite" his arm strength is, which while true, according to Savant he's saved the team a whopping 0 runs above average with his arm over his 4 partial seasons. 

Even if his arm strength is an 80 on the scale, his arm tool is only a 50 because of his inability to actually utilize it, thanks to his terrible defense and his loading and accuracy. Add that to the -12 runs he cost in the OF with his routes and jumps. 

Point being, I really, really want people to stop talking about Matt Wallner's great arm as if it's actually an asset. He stinks in the OF, period. The question is, is he so bad that he needs to be moved to DH on a near full time basis. 

He, under no circumstance has "real defensive upside" as the author says. 

[sweetmusicviola16]

Wallner has a bat that is playable on this team. Negative is against LHP making him part-time to a degree. Defense though is a bigger issue, makes him a DH unless he can work on that D. Maybe he crashes and burns from here on out but if he plays to his potential bats like his are not a dime a dozen.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

Like you I want him to make it, but I am very disappointed with what we saw last year.  You mentioned Schwarber - he had a low BA, but he had massive power, took walks, and drove in runs.  Matt had 22 HRs and only 40 RBIs!  That is the combo that really disappoints me. 

8th inning solo HRs on the wrong side of a 9-2 game don't count for much.

[NYCTK]

58 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Like you I want him to make it, but I am very disappointed with what we saw last year.  You mentioned Schwarber - he had a low BA, but he had massive power, took walks, and drove in runs.  Matt had 22 HRs and only 40 RBIs!  That is the combo that really disappoints me. 

I do worry that he's nothing but a stat padder in low leverage situations. He's sure to hit a bomb off a position player, but he's not really shown up when it matters. His splits are bad, and somewhat concerning:  

	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA
Low Leverage	507	0.267	0.367	0.591	0.958	0.403
Med/High Leverage	465	0.191	0.318	0.369	0.687	0.308

This still could be complete noise though. 

[bean5302]

Wallner has been the subject of rough takes on this site for a while now. It's not a "make or break" year for a guy who has a career batting line of wRC+ 131 and had a bad year last year but was still wRC+ 114. He's made it. 

If he declines, he declines, but pretty much every single team in baseball would want him in the lineup.

[bean5302]

2 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

8th inning solo HRs on the wrong side of a 9-2 game don't count for much.

Hard to hit multi-run home runs when nobody is on base. 

[Patzky]

5 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Hard to hit multi-run home runs when nobody is on base. 

Is that more an effect of low leverage success or poor batting lineup construction.. and which is likely to continue in 2026?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

5 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Wallner has been the subject of rough takes on this site for a while now. It's not a "make or break" year for a guy who has a career batting line of wRC+ 131 and had a bad year last year but was still wRC+ 114. He's made it. 

If he declines, he declines, but pretty much every single team in baseball would want him in the lineup.

absolutely agreed
 

His 133 wRC+ 2023-2025 is highest on the team. His 114 last year was 3rd on the team and Bader was number 2.

[bean5302]

6 minutes ago, Patzky said:

Is that more an effect of low leverage success or poor batting lineup construction.. and which is likely to continue in 2026?

Wallner was wRC+ 124 with runners on base last year. .217/.348/.452 OPS .800.

His RBI total is a function of luck and SSS

[NYCTK]

3 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Wallner was wRC+ 124 with runners on base last year. .217/.348/.452 OPS .800.

His RBI total is a function of luck and SSS

Ok, but just because someone's on base doesn't mean it's an important at-bat. In approximately equal splits in low versus medium/high leverage plate appearances he hit .975 OPS in the former and about .580 in the latter. 

[DJL44]

27 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

I do worry that he's nothing but a stat padder in low leverage situations. He's sure to hit a bomb off a position player, but he's not really shown up when it matters. His splits are bad, and somewhat concerning:  

Then Wallner should have a great season. I don't expect the Twins to generate many high leverage situations in 2026.

[CRF]

Would really like to see him figure some things out and have a big year. If he doesn't, it's time to let him go. You just can't keep these guys around forever when they don't produce. 

[AceWrigley]

45 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

I do worry that he's nothing but a stat padder in low leverage situations. He's sure to hit a bomb off a position player, but he's not really shown up when it matters. His splits are bad, and somewhat concerning:  

 

	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA
Low Leverage	507	0.267	0.367	0.591	0.958	0.403
Med/High Leverage	465	0.191	0.318	0.369	0.687	0.308

This still could be complete noise though. 

It didn't look like noise last year. It looked like a lot of solo shots that didn't change the outcome of very many games.

[USAFChief]

34 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Wallner was wRC+ 124 with runners on base last year. .217/.348/.452 OPS .800.

His RBI total is a function of luck and SSS

Complete hogwash.

[bean5302]

29 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Ok, but just because someone's on base doesn't mean it's an important at-bat. In approximately equal splits in low versus medium/high leverage plate appearances he hit .975 OPS in the former and about .580 in the latter. 

Wallner had his highest walk rate with high leverage.

Wallner had his lowest K rate with high leverage.

Wallner had his highest hard hit rate with high leverage.

He also owned a .000 BABIP in the whopping 27 at bats he had with "high leverage" last year. 

 

[bean5302]

2 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Complete hogwash.

Please issue your correction request to fangraphs so they can fix their data.

[thelanges5]

2 hours ago, Sam Caulder said:

That’s why 2026 feels pivotal

This same sentence applies to too many of our bats. 
 

Hopefully Michael A Taylor can share some knowledge on routes with Wallner. He’s at camp to help improve the OF defense. 

[NYCTK]

14 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

He also owned a .000 BABIP in the whopping 27 at bats he had with "high leverage" last year. 

That low of a sample, I am basically going to ignore the first part of your reply then. To your point though, I don't know why I didn't include those peripherals in that breakdown, so here are those numbers with K and BB rates included: 

	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA	BB%	K%
Low Leverage	507	0.267	0.367	0.591	0.958	0.403	11.40%	31.20%
Med/High Leverage	465	0.191	0.318	0.369	0.687	0.308	9.90%	33.58%

So it's not like he falls apart. Those declines are what we should kind of expect to see for any player. But there's no denying that he's essentially been a low leverage stat padder in his career THUSFAR, and that while it is a cause for a concern, it's not necessarily predictive. 

[Dawgzilla]

As they say:  the definition of insanity is doing the same thing, over and over, and expecting different results!  This is for Wallner...average and strikeouts, Twins signing retreads/pitchers that just came off T. J./or reclamation projects, Twins ownership not spending monies to compete, and waiting for prospects to age until they qualify for social security, etc.!!!!!!  Worthless!  Good luck with attendance, concession, merchandise, etc. sales, not to mention interest!!!!  How low can you go?!!!!!  They will then blame fans for attendance and then threaten to move....or need another "new," stadium, again funded by taxpayers!  Utter ridiculousness all around!

 

Jeffrey James

[Woof Bronzer]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Wallner has been the subject of rough takes on this site for a while now. It's not a "make or break" year for a guy who has a career batting line of wRC+ 131 and had a bad year last year but was still wRC+ 114. He's made it. 

If he declines, he declines, but pretty much every single team in baseball would want him in the lineup.

Is wRC+ the only stat that matters?    As others have mentioned he's essentially racked up his numbers in low leverage situations.  

I think Wallner is fine.  I don't get the desire to either turn him into the worst player in Twins history or an MVP candidate though.  Not every player needs to be a superstar.   He's a 1 tool player, but it's a valuable tool.  Put some high OBP guys in front of him in the lineup and let him swing away.

I doubt "every single team in baseball" is frantically coming up with trades to find room for Matt Wallner and his 0.6 WAR in the lineup though.  

[old nurse]

Carlos Mendoza and Minnie Mendoza batted .182 each for their major league career. Mario Mendoza batted .220 for his career and was the inspiration for the term Mendoza Line.  So are people ignoring history or has hitting gotten so poor for average that they do not want to rightfully embarrass players?

[DocBauer]

Personally, I believe Wallner is/can be better defensively than he was in 2025, based on all the games I've watched. He's not great, but he sure looked better in his previous seasons. But I also believe his best role is as the primary DH and backup corner OF. And I'm going to stop that part of the conversation there.

My issue with the OP is the focus on 2025...where he had an injury that might have affected him more than realized, but clearly threw off his timing...and never touched on his 2023-24 seasons where his OPS sat about. 870 BOTH seasons. Yes, he's a streaky hitter. And he probably always will be. And yes, he was sent down early in both of those seasons. But, IMO, a strong arguement could also be made that not only was he possibly sent down too early in 2024, but both demotions probably lasted longer than they should have been.

Hit HIT .249 and .259 each of those seasons, and produced a .370 OB% to go along with his .870+ OPS numbers. So why does his 2025 season define him?

Sorry, but a SSS rookie debut in 2022 that was OK, followed by a PAIR of .870+ OPS seasons the next 2, weighs more in his favor for future production than an off 2025.

It's great he powered his K% in 2025. But if I had the choice of a Wallner who K's 34% of the time, but who hits. 250 with a .370% and 28-32 HR over the course of a full season, I'm taking the high K version of him. That's not to say he can't grow, develop, and keep a lower K% and still produce. I'm just saying if it's an either or scenario, I'm going with the 2023-24 version of him all day long.

For the record, I'm NOT saying he has to just sell out in order to be productive. And I'm NOT saying pitchers haven't made some adjustments and he needs to counter. But I AM saying you can't discuss what he's shown previously before 2025. And I still wonder about his slip in defense and mediocre '25 wasn't also due to his injury possibly affecting him and certainly throwing off his timing.

All I know is Wallner made adjustments at EVERY LEVEL while in MILB, had a decent 2022 debut, and then a pair of .870+ OPS seasons in 2023-24. 

So why is everyone so down on him following a single bad year where his OPS was still slightly above league average? He's definitely got something to prove, or re-prove in 2026.

But why so much vitriol and downcasting for a guy who's been really good before? 

Here's hoping he hits .250 again, with another .370 OB%, and slugs 30 HR...regardless of a 28-34% K rate...with 80 RBI between RF and DH. He's shown that kind of ability previously. Let's hope he can achieve those numbers in '26 and stop focusing on one poor season of "didn't do" and concentrate a little on what he "can do". 

[Fatbat]

Fully healthy all season long, he will have a monster season.  As could several Twins that are candidates for bounce back seasons. 

[Danchat]

5 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Wallner was wRC+ 124 with runners on base last year. .217/.348/.452 OPS .800.

His RBI total is a function of luck and SSS

When you strike out a lot and walk a lot, it makes sense that he doesn't hit in runners when they are on base. I think we sometimes prioritize OBP over batting average when hitting a single with runners on base is much more likely to get RBIs when a walk can only get you a RBI when the bases are loaded.