The Matt Wallner Dilemma: Real Progress or More of the Same?

[jmlease1]

38 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

The thing is, $200 million is not a ridiculous payroll. In a few years, that will be the median payroll and the Twins, when trying to be competitive should be sitting around that median. And occasionally, when wanting to actually contend for a title, going up to the 10th highest payroll. 

In an alternate reality, where the Twins made good decisions after the 2023 season, they are sitting with about a $230 million this season. Maybe that means Sonny Gray is here with Pete Alonso, Duran, Jax, and Carlos Correa are still around, and maybe someone like Harrison Bader still around. I still don't know if that is a very good team, but it's probably good enough to win the AL Central. 

Anyways, my point is, fans need to EXPECT a $200 Million payroll, not fear it. Not in a year like this, when there's no effort to compete, instead resetting the roster and seeing what sticks, but on a typical year in which they hope to win the AL Central. 

Expecting the Twins to have a 50% increase in payroll in 3 seasons seems unrealistic. While I have zero interest in protecting the Pohlad bank accounts, the issue for the Twins ain't getting to $200M in payroll, it's going up to $150-160M and then ratcheting back to $100M because you're so terrible at business that you somehow managed to claim tens of millions in annual losses. $200M was a top 10 payroll in 2025.

That made the Correa, Lopez, and Buxton contracts feel unsustainable, when in fact they're market rate for Correa and well below market rate for the others.

Hells bells, if we'd just managed to make $150M for this season we'd have been in good position to go for a quick turnaround, adding some real thump to the lineup and some proven bullpen options on top of what they did with Bell & Caratini.

But we have terrible ownership, not just because they're cheap, but because they've been utterly terrible at the business of baseball over the past decade, minimum.

Anyways. Wallner. Seems like a good dude, and I think he can bounce back and have a quality season slugging for the Twins where he seems like a very reasonable and impactful clean-up hitter. Would like him to move to DH more, especially if he still looks slow and clumsy in the OF like he did last season, which was notably worse than in 2023 or 2024.

[NYCTK]

2 hours ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

The Mets and Red Sox might have the two worst RF situations in baseball, so again, I'm not finding that to be a glowing endorsement of Wallner.

The Mets decided to roll with their #2 prospect Carson Benge. I'd hardly call it a bad situation. Their backup plan is less than ideal, with ideas of placing Baty out there if needed, and the other backup plan seeing if other top 100 prospect Ryan Clifford can force his way into the conversation. 

Matt Wallner wouldn't necessarily be unwelcome on the roster, since he has an option he could be sent down to AAA if things got crowded, but the Mets are dealing with their own Wallner-esque player in Mark Vientos (who sadly has no options remaining). 

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, NYCTK said:

The thing is, $200 million is not a ridiculous payroll. In a few years, that will be the median payroll and the Twins, when trying to be competitive should be sitting around that median. And occasionally, when wanting to actually contend for a title, going up to the 10th highest payroll. 

In an alternate reality, where the Twins made good decisions after the 2023 season, they are sitting with about a $230 million this season. Maybe that means Sonny Gray is here with Pete Alonso, Duran, Jax, and Carlos Correa are still around, and maybe someone like Harrison Bader still around. I still don't know if that is a very good team, but it's probably good enough to win the AL Central. 

Anyways, my point is, fans need to EXPECT a $200 Million payroll, not fear it. Not in a year like this, when there's no effort to compete, instead resetting the roster and seeing what sticks, but on a typical year in which they hope to win the AL Central. 

There are many that agree with you on payroll. I won't argue it... I honestly have no idea what is happening in the accounting department.   

Myself personally. I'm done fighting, asking or expecting it. History has taught me well that free agency is not a viable staffing option for us.... UNLESS... they get better at developing young talent that costs less in order to free up the money where we can surprise the pants of me by signing a Correa (who didn't exactly work out). Or... extending a player we'd like to keep around past free agency eligibility.

This development hasn't been happening and it is the central core of my almost all of my issues with the Minnesota Twins... it is the underlying source of nearly all of my complaints on this website.

I get it... some of us (not me) may have concerns with Wallner as expressed in this thread. I read the concerns on Lewis... On Lee. Keaschall had a nice 180 some AB's... just like Julien did... how will the next 500 AB's go... I don't know but we need to find out. 

I get the concerns but I'll put it rather simply. We either develop these guys into major league capable ball players or we spend 30 to 50 million on 4 or 8 guys on 1 year contracts. If we spend 30 to 50  million on 4 or 8 guys on one year contracts. We won't have the money to spend on a decent free agent that costs a little bit more.

If we have failed to develop... We have also failed to develop trade value to restock the failed system. It all collapses.

We can complain about these young players... focus on their faults but they are critical to our future success. IF they fail... we are dead in the water. So... I'm not giving up on them and I'll be cheering my rear end off for them.

Wallner is critical to what we need to do to survive.   

 

[Road trip]

5 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Much has been written here and in other threads about his defense. I just checked BBRef again and in '23 and '24 he was essentially neutral as a defender, actually slightly above. I don't know what happened in 2025, but the numbers were much worse. I also know that his sprint speed went from slightly above average to bottom third in MLB. Wallner turned 28 in the off-season so he's not slowing because of age. Could it be injury?

It seems likely.  Pulled his hamstring severely in April and was on the IL for the next six weeks.  Hamstring injuries can be notoriously slow to fully heal for some athletes.

His loss of speed may be permanent, or perhaps a winter off will result in slightly better sprint speed this year.  We can only hope, because a faster Wallner would be somewhat less of a liability in the field.