Twins, Joe Ryan Agree to Face-Saving Deal to Avoid Arbitration

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

The Twins and righthander Joe Ryan agreed to a one-year deal to avoid arbitration Monday, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Ryan will earn $6.1 million in 2026, and the Twins hold a $13-million club option for 2027, with a $100,000 buyout. The $6.1 million figure is the midpoint between the figures filed by the two sides earlier this month, when Ryan asked for $6.35 million and the Twins countered with $5.85 million. The deal doesn't extend Minnesota's term of team control, which would have ended after 2027, anyway. It's just the result of Minnesota pulling the ripcord to avoid a needlessly damaging arbitration hearing.

Because the whole league takes the job of suppressing player salaries seriously, there's meaningful pressure on every front office in MLB to adopt a "file-and-trial" policy when it comes to arbitration. The term refers to the fact that, by a given deadline in the middle of January each year, teams and players must either agree to terms to avoid arbitration or file official proposed salaries for the player in the coming season. After that filing period, teams who hew to "file-and-trial" refuse to settle on one-year deals. It's a hardline tactic designed to bend players toward teams' desired salaries for them, but it's also become a way that teams subtly hold one another to account. Other teams and the league's central office watch and tut disapprovingly about settlements after the filing date but before hearings, because they compromise the notion of "file-and-trial" and weaken the leverage teams try to establish by setting that policy.

To save face, when a team (usually, it's the team, because the player was generally more willing to settle near the midpoint in the first place) wants to avoid a hearing, they set up a deal like this one. Technically, the Twins have cost certainty on Ryan for 2027, now. He can't earn more than $13 million, because if he has a good enough year to be in position to do so, the Twins will pick up the option. That's unlikely, though. Ryan's platform earnings (this year's $6.1 million) will probably keep his earning power for 2027 to the $12-million range, which would make declining the option and paying the $100,000 buyout a no-brainer.

Although part of a boring aspect of baseball, this particular process is funny. When teams and players fall together on a deal like this, it's worth a chuckle. Without technically buckling the fragile, largely fake leverage lattice that is "file-and-trial", these deals give the lie to the whole thing. Yes, technically, the Twins have agreed to a multi-year deal with Ryan, because they gained an option for next year. The odds that that option will be exercised are intentionally low, though. This is, essentially, the Twins paying Ryan $6.2 million for 2026. It's them admitting that a hearing would not only have made Ryan angry with the team over a small amount of money (in baseball terms), but likely have resulted in Ryan winning.

The Brewers strike these kinds of deals fairly often. They did it with William Contreras late last January, after he'd filed for $6.5 million and they'd countered with $5.6 million. The deal paid him $6 million in 2025, with a club option for $12 million in 2026. They declined that option in November, paying him another $100,000, and he'll make less than $10 million this season. It was the same copout. Teams want to maintain the facade of being hardliners, but they don't want to actually go to arbitration any more than they used to. Nor do players like that experience. This works out on both sides; it just comes with some negotiation theater.

Ryan will be eminently tradable under the terms of this deal, if it comes to that. In the happy event that he's still a Twin in November, the option will probably be declined, and Ryan and the Twins can do this dance again next January—or whenever the likely offseason lockout is resolved. For now, the sides have avoided the needless headache of a hearing next month, and Ryan can focus on baseball as he gets ready to report to spring training.

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[farmerguychris]

I was a bit confused by the wording in the 3rd paragraph.  Are you suggesting the Twins will elect to NOT pay Ryan in 2027 if they have to pay him 13M?  Really sorry to hear that we won't pay that amount if he has another all star season in 2026.  How much do the Pohlads expect to be able to pay a pitcher of his caliber?

[Matthew Trueblood]

4 minutes ago, farmerguychris said:

I was a bit confused by the wording in the 3rd paragraph.  Are you suggesting the Twins will elect to NOT pay Ryan in 2027 if they have to pay him 13M?  Really sorry to hear that we won't pay that amount if he has another all star season in 2026.  How much do the Pohlads expect to be able to pay a pitcher of his caliber?

Good questions. The point, though, is that the nature of arbitration is such that Ryan's unlikely to be in line for $13 million via that system in his final year of eligibility next year. If he IS on track for more than that, they'll exercise the option and pay him only that, but it's more likely that he'll be in line for less, so they'll decline the option and pay him less—because they can.

[DataNerd]

3 minutes ago, farmerguychris said:

I was a bit confused by the wording in the 3rd paragraph.  Are you suggesting the Twins will elect to NOT pay Ryan in 2027 if they have to pay him 13M?  Really sorry to hear that we won't pay that amount if he has another all star season in 2026.  How much do the Pohlads expect to be able to pay a pitcher of his caliber?

If the Twins don't pick up his option, he is still arbitration eligible and is not a free agent.  So the option becomes a question of whether they think that he would get that much in arbitration or not.

However, MLBTR is saying it is a mutual option, which would change the option from being a cap on what he can make next year to us having to pay $100k if we don't pay him $13M

[Drtwins]

I’m also seeing it mentioned as a mutual option, so in essence 1 yr 6.2 million deal. Was thinking it was a solid deal for the twins if it was only a team option as arbitration will likely change with the new cba and Ryan would be locked in. The mutual option likely works in Ryan’s favor unless he gets injured or completely falls apart. 

[nicksaviking]

19 minutes ago, DataNerd said:

If the Twins don't pick up his option, he is still arbitration eligible and is not a free agent.  So the option becomes a question of whether they think that he would get that much in arbitration or not.

However, MLBTR is saying it is a mutual option, which would change the option from being a cap on what he can make next year to us having to pay $100k if we don't pay him $13M

Right it's a mutual option, so if Joe Ryan goes and imitates Tarik Skubal, then Ryan would decline the option.

[bean5302]

The mutual option's functionality is going to depend on the outcome of Tarik Skubal's arbitration ruling. If Skubal is successful, it will likely re-build the entire arbitration model for pitchers in future years becuase it will be precident setting.

[SteveLV]

So does that mean if Ryan has a decent year, and both sides decline the mutual option, he is then a FA in 2027?  I am confused and concerned......

[LA Vikes Fan]

15 minutes ago, SteveLV said:

So does that mean if Ryan has a decent year, and both sides decline the mutual option, he is then a FA in 2027?  I am confused and concerned......

No .Ryan is never a free agent in 2027 unless the Twins release him. He either gets the $13M, but only if both sides agree in that number if it's a mutual option, or he goes back to arbitration. In other words, not much to see here other than the Twins are now committed to 6.1M in 2026 plus 100k in 2027 when one side or the other declines the option..

[DJL44]

I am going to guess that adding the $100k as a mutual option has some sort of luxury tax ramifications. There is a 1% chance both sides would pick up that option.

[Cris E]

I think 1% is high, actually. These mutual options are never exercised. If everyone is that kumbaya then they extend.

Also, not sure what the hyperbole is all about. It's only this site that's running with the breathless "face saving deal".  The Twins very rarely go to arbitration with their players, almost always meeting in the middle to avoid the acrimony. He may be a great player, but if he doesn't want an extension right now then you sign him to what you can and play him (or trade him, but that's another discussion.)  In this org this step is only slightly removed from filling out your W2 and getting a locker assigned.

[DataNerd]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

The mutual option's functionality is going to depend on the outcome of Tarik Skubal's arbitration ruling. If Skubal is successful, it will likely re-build the entire arbitration model for pitchers in future years becuase it will be precident setting.

Joe Ryan is not close to the pitcher Skubal is.  His case is really going to be precedent setting in how much top guys can get in arb.  Skubal had more fWAR last year than Ryan the past 2 years.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I'm glad they settled the terms for 2026. I can't think of a situation where both sides would agree to $13 million for 2027 prior to going to arbitration and having Ryan make a demand. The "mutual option" aspect of this agreement makes no sense to me. In my world, a mutual option means it is not binding on either side.  It is pointless. It could be a mutual option for $300,000,000 or for $3,000,000 and still be pointless. 

[Western SD Fan]

A question to be asked is if this actually increases the chances Joe Ryan is traded between now and the deadline as potential suitors now have a number in mind of what it would take to retain him next season.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

6 minutes ago, Western SD Fan said:

A question to be asked is if this actually increases the chances Joe Ryan is traded between now and the deadline as potential suitors now have a number in mind of what it would take to retain him next season.

All Joe Ryan would have to say is "No, I will not take $13,000,000. I've changed my mind.", no matter whether it is the Twins or the Yankees. 

[Brandon27]

I have feeling that he is going to get traded before, durning spring training or at the trade deadline 

[IndianaTwin]

38 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

I'm glad they settled the terms for 2026. I can't think of a situation where both sides would agree to $13 million for 2027 prior to going to arbitration and having Ryan make a demand. The "mutual option" aspect of this agreement makes no sense to me. In my world, a mutual option means it is not binding on either side.  It is pointless. It could be a mutual option for $300,000,000 or for $3,000,000 and still be pointless. 

I generally think you are right. The one possibility is if he has such a year that the Twins would be inclined to offer $12.75M and Ryan would be inclined to ask for $13.25M.
But even in that scenario, the one that gets to go second (Ryan, right?) could decline the option figuring that the first to accept has essentially said they would do $13M. The Twins would basically have to say, “We are planning to offer $12.75M in arbitration, but we’ll give you $13M if you settle know.”

Still seems doubtful, but minutely more likely than most mutual options. 

[The Great Hambino]

Since mutual options are never exercised, are they essentially just a mechanism to defer the buyout amount for a year?  

[AlLagoon]

So my thread about extending him and buying a year or two of free-agency, I did have those years well below market value I am realizing. 

Still, better to start low and meet in the middle than do what the Wild did with Kaprizov, start with richest contract ever and have them refuse after owner states again and again he'll open the wallet no matter what. KK's agent played Leopold for the fool he is.

Sadly, this Twins ownership is starting to remind me of Calvin Griffith's Twins, where you knew your best players would be leaving once they became too expensive: Carew, Hisle, Bostock, etc.

So much for Target Field and all its revenue streams fixing that.

[amjgt]

I'm trying to squint hard and find a way that a potential lockout could affect this option/buyout and I just can't see it. So, I'm officially with everyone else in that this is a complete and total 100% chance that the option is not picked up and it's pure silliness related to MLB's "file and trial" preference. They can be like "no. no. no. we worked out a multi-year deal. This is totally different that just coming to a one year agreement," and anyone with half a brain can see exactly what happened. And also, who cares? "Yeah, it's a 1-year deal. It's what we wanted to do. If you've got a problem with it you can pound sand, MLB."

[jorgenswest]

4 hours ago, DataNerd said:

Joe Ryan is not close to the pitcher Skubal is.  His case is really going to be precedent setting in how much top guys can get in arb.  Skubal had more fWAR last year than Ryan the past 2 years.

@bean5302 may need to correct me but I believe he was talking about the strategy that Skubal is using. He is testing a rarely used CBA provision that allows players with more than five years of service time to compare themselves not only to past arbitration-eligible players but to everyone in baseball. Ryan will have 5 years plus 33 days of service time.

[Brandon]

I'm just glad Ryan is signed.  Let's celebrate that for a moment and then push for management to sign a reliever or two to close out the offseason..  

[Mahoning]

He is going to make less than Caratini.

[Whitey333]

There has obviously been some animosity between Joe Ryan and the Twins over the years.  I will not be surprised to see Ryan traded at some point.  They should trade him while they can get something decent trade for him.  It seems very unlikely that they are going to sign him to a long term deal anytime soon.  Not with this ownership group and new payroll budgets.  Anyway Ryan has been good the first half of each of the past two seasons and has been poor in the second half.  This team is nowhere near contending.  Trade Ryan, Lopez and even Buxton while you can get something good for them.

[CRF]

Joe Ryan? Is he still here? 🤪

[bean5302]

14 hours ago, DataNerd said:

Joe Ryan is not close to the pitcher Skubal is.  His case is really going to be precedent setting in how much top guys can get in arb.  Skubal had more fWAR last year than Ryan the past 2 years.

 

9 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

@bean5302 may need to correct me but I believe he was talking about the strategy that Skubal is using. He is testing a rarely used CBA provision that allows players with more than five years of service time to compare themselves not only to past arbitration-eligible players but to everyone in baseball. Ryan will have 5 years plus 33 days of service time.

Arbitration is about precedent. If Skubal wins, he'll be setting a precedent that arbitration should more heavily weigh a player's free agency value (which it should). Also, I'd be utterly shocked if the next CBA didn't include more provisions to make arbitration more fair for players in the future.

Right now, arbitration salary growth has been based almost solely on the initial and subsequent year arbitration values which prevents players from earning what they are worth if they start low. Skubals ruling could turn that entire concept on it's head for a lot of players who are arb-3. Not just for a back to back Cy Young winner. But only for 2026-2027 arbitration, if there's not a strike.

[NYCTK]

Now that he's signed...the Twins should trade Joe Ryan. 

[Riverbrian]

I could be wrong but to my knowledge. The mutual option is barely worth mentioning. It only matter if the agreed upon 13M today... is the value of Joe Ryan after 2026 concludes. The odds of that happening is very slim so the odds of both sides agreeing has to be extremely slim. 

If Joe Ryan thinks he will get more in arbitration... he declines the option. 

If Joe Ryan has a down year in 2026 causing the Twins to believe that Joe Ryan will get less than 13M. They decline the option.

The odds of Joe Ryan's arbitration value landing at exactly 13M after 2026 has to be rather low. 

Since Joe isn't eligible for free agency after 2026. It just doesn't matter.

The declining of the option by either party just puts them back into Arbitration next off season since Joe isn't eligible for free agency. The 100K buyout I believe can simply be reduced to an an extra 100K in Joe Ryan's pocket. Joe Ryan's salary in 2027 will basically depend on his performance in 2026 and the historical framework of the raises from Arb 2 to Arb 3.  

 

  

[Rhyno006]

Quote

Because the whole league takes the job of suppressing player salaries seriously,...

Well how else are the owners going to make money... RSN TV contracts? I'll see myself out. 

[Thumbs Down Guy]

After reading the article and the comments I got to wondering: would there  be some kind of competitive advantage for the big revenue teams to allow/encourage higher arbitration salaries? They could easily absorb these increases while putting pressure on the teams in the lower third of the pay scale. Like I said, I am just wondering and would like to hear any other opinions.