BREAKING: Twins Win Third Overall Pick in 2026 MLB Draft Lottery

[Jamie Cameron]

Image courtesy of John Bonnes

The hated Chicago White Sox, who already got Justin Ishbia and the Pope this year, win again. They will pick first in the 2026 MLB Draft, after winning the annual MLB Draft Lottery on Tuesday evening in Orlando. The Twins will pick third, but can find some consolation in not having fallen any further. 

The division-rival Royals also got a bump, as they entered with the 16th slot in the theoretical draft order but landed the sixth overall pick. The Royals, San Francisco Giants and Tampa Bay Rays all jumped into the lottery section (the top six selections), so the Twins were more fortunate than the Orioles, Athletics, or Braves, who all tumbled to the back half of the top 10.

So, what are some of the ramifications of this outcome? Let's talk through the talent and the dollars.

The Twins will miss out on Roch Cholowsky, the consensus number one player in this class and the best college shortstop prospect in at least a decade. There's also a number two guy, at least currently, in Grady Emerson. Number three onwards is where things get interesting.

Let's start with the good news, this is a strong class. The top of the first round is particularly resplendent with excellent college bats, with something for everyone. There's profiles like Kentucky shortstop Tyler Bell and Georgia Tech outfielder Drew Burress, who do everything pretty well, a pair of college aces in Liam Peterson and Cam Flukey, or bats that are higher risk, higher reward such as Justin Lebron, or Jacob Lombard. The Twins are going to have access to an outstanding player with the luxury of watching who separates themselves this spring and summer.

While falling is never good, things could have been a lot worse. There was a ~$4 million difference between the Twins best case scenario (first) and their worst (eighth). Falling one spot will cost them ~$700,000 in bonus pool money, they are also picking higher than their regular season record dictated they would.

Using last years' slot values as a proxy, the 3rd pick will be worth ~$9,500,000 plus the typical 4-9% year-on-year increase from MLB. The upshot of that is the Twins will likely be able to sign their college bat of choice and reappropriate some funds to their Comp B or second round pick to sign a high upside prep player.

In the coming days, we'll have more on possible prospects the Twins might target, and some more in the weeds bonus pool math. For now, let's finish with this. It could have been better, but it could have been a whole lot worse.

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[bunsen82]

It’s a good outcome.  For 2nd best odds you want a top 3 pick especially for the prospects in this draft. As of now it has 4 really good SS at the top of the draft.  This is the highest pick the 2nd best odds has had.  Yes I would have loved the first or second pick, but for the 4th worst record we effectively moved up in the draft.  My guess is the front office is pleased with the outcome.  

[thelanges5]

Justin Lebron - let’s go Twins 

[USAFChief]

Heh.

Totally worth dismantling your team and throwing away an entire season. And realistically more like at minimum 2 seasons.

[USAFChief]

25 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

It’s a good outcome.  For 2nd best odds you want a top 3 pick especially for the prospects in this draft. As of now it has 4 really good SS at the top of the draft.  This is the highest pick the 2nd best odds has had.  Yes I would have loved the first or second pick, but for the 4th worst record we effectively moved up in the draft.  My guess is the front office is pleased with the outcome.  

The front office is pleased with having the 4th worst record?

Geez I hope not.

[chpettit19]

14 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Heh.

Totally worth dismantling your team and throwing away an entire season. And realistically more like at minimum 2 seasons.

Whoa, whoa, whoa. Have you not been listening? Falvey is educating the new minority owners as we speak on how they aren't throwing anything away and they're right where they want to be. Those trades at the deadline were baseball decisions. All the important people told us so.

Have to pay closer attention, Chief!

[Fatbat]

A top 3 pick is a great place to start the rebuild! Any one of the top 4 athletes that are currently shortstops would be a great pick. Not even sure that Roch Chowloski is a clear #1 pick. …. and its the Whiteys mistake to make. All the buzz leading up to the July draft is gonna be awesome!!!

[Sjoski]

This FO still has to draft the right player, and then have the infrastructure in place to develop him.

Thus, there are two ways to blow it, and if you blow, aren't you more likely to blow it?

 

[sweetmusicviola16]

18 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Whoa, whoa, whoa. Have you not been listening? Falvey is educating the new minority owners as we speak on how they aren't throwing anything away and they're right where they want to be. Those trades at the deadline were baseball decisions. All the important people told us so.

Have to pay closer attention, Chief!

My thoughts when I heard that Falvey is now spending his time advising these new minority owners is, here he is adding another duty to his job instead of spending his time trying to improve the Twins team. How many hats this guy must be wearing. Why does this team not learn?

[USAFChief]

32 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Whoa, whoa, whoa. Have you not been listening? Falvey is educating the new minority owners as we speak on how they aren't throwing anything away and they're right where they want to be. Those trades at the deadline were baseball decisions. All the important people told us so.

Have to pay closer attention, Chief!

My bad.

In my defense, I sometimes have trouble parsing out anything solid when Falvey speaks. 

[Nashvilletwin]

56 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

Justin Lebron - let’s go Twins 

I’m worried he goes at #2. We then go with a 17 year old we won’t see for a half a decade.

[terrydactyls]

At last we have a new topic to beat to death.

[Blyleven2011]

46 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

A top 3 pick is a great place to start the rebuild! Any one of the top 4 athletes that are currently shortstops would be a great pick. Not even sure that Roch Chowloski is a clear #1 pick. …. and its the Whiteys mistake to make. All the buzz leading up to the July draft is gonna be awesome!!!

Draft day is along ways away and players either remain top prospects  , climb higher on the list or drop lower on the prospects lists ...

Long way to go before draft day to really evaluate the players  ...

[nova_twins]

The Twins will have leftover money from the #3 pick to sign multiple HS players in the $2 million dollar range. Regardless of anything else it will be a hugely important draft for the organization. 

[Dawgzilla]

Eddie Bane still alive?  Pick him again 50+ years later....we're coming🤪

[Peter Gravett]

I like our position to garner some serious infield talent, but there's some fantastic arm talent high on the board too in Flukey, Bolemon and Rojas.

[The Great Hambino]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

The front office is pleased with having the 4th worst record?

Geez I hope not.

I mean, it would certainly explain a lot

[RaoulDuke]

 One of the college SS is probably the smart pick if they are there at 3, but I greedily want them to take whichever of the lefty starters they think is best.

They rarely (ever?) draft arms in the top 10 and shockingly also rarely have a real ace.  Obviously it is a much riskier pick but it would be different then another athletic SS or OF bat.

[ashbury]

54 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

At last we have a new topic to beat to death.

Ask your doctor or pharmacist if The Internet is right for you.  😁

[Dman]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

Heh.

Totally worth dismantling your team and throwing away an entire season. And realistically more like at minimum 2 seasons.

That's a really pessimistic take.  This team before the deadline lost 2 out three to the Rockies, Dodgers, Nationals and Red Sox.  That was with all those "great" players they got rid of.  The team wasn't going anywhere and selling off guys that were gone at years end and some bullpen arms doesn't exactly seem crazy given the team hadn't performed well all year (other than one crazy winning streak that was an outlier).  Maybe they win a few more games keeping the band together to the end of the year, but what's the point if they weren't making the playoffs anyway?  This was a lottery team no matter what.

They were going to trade one of Duran or Jax for sure.  Jax had a 4.23 ERA this year. I don't think he was going to help down the stretch and they would have wanted to trade him in the offseason or at the end of 2026 at the latest as he was getting expensive.  I hated to see Duran go and I think that is gonna hurt a bit, but hopefully the return makes it worth it.  Again if your going to lose a player a bullpen arm seems better than most any other position.  Why they Traded rubber armed Varland doesn't make sense to me given the years of control left, but hopefully that lefty is the real deal and makes me forget about it.

At any rate bottom line they were in the lottery no matter what they did with a decent shot at a top 8 pick.  The way things worked out they managed to get number 3 and a chance to pick an up the middle talent.  Hopefully they don't screw it up. If they were going to trade players trading from the pen should hurt less than a starting pitcher or good position player.  Hopefully some of the young arms they have step up and help make the pen a strength again.

[tony&rodney]

7 minutes ago, Dman said:

They were going to trade one of Duran or Jax for sure.

It is water over the dam and I'm not furious or anything close. I'm just curious why the Twins were going to trade Duran or Jax. Why?

[Dman]

1 minute ago, tony&rodney said:

It is water over the dam and I'm not furious or anything close. I'm just curious why the Twins were going to trade Duran or Jax. Why?

They didn't have too, but given all the speculation and before the Correa trade it seemed very likely they would move at least one of them.  To both reduce salary and trade from area of strength.  They could afford to lose one high leverage arm if keeping Jax and or Varland.  Ultimately they traded all three which seems dangerous IMO but here we are.

[AceWrigley]

2 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Heh.

Totally worth dismantling your team and throwing away an entire season. And realistically more like at minimum 2 seasons.

Oh heck yes. I was feeling so TC I traded away my snow blower just so I could shovel for the next 2 years. Got a nice grouping of small shrubs.

[Vanimal46]

2 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Heh.

Totally worth dismantling your team and throwing away an entire season. And realistically more like at minimum 2 seasons.

Have no fear Chief. I have been reading that building a bullpen from scratch is the easiest thing to do in baseball. Even though contenders look for 1 or more bullpen arms every year at the deadline. 

[old nurse]

2 hours ago, USAFChief said:

The front office is pleased with having the 4th worst record?

Geez I hope not.

4th worst record in baseball, or the 9th worst record in the AL is no different. 

[old nurse]

6 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Have no fear Chief. I have been reading that building a bullpen from scratch is the easiest thing to do in baseball. Even though contenders look for 1 or more bullpen arms every year at the deadline. 

27 Yankees won it all with only one decent bullpen arm. See, it can be done   Of course the dude pitched 213 innings

[tony&rodney]

8 minutes ago, Dman said:

They didn't have too, but given all the speculation and before the Correa trade it seemed very likely they would move at least one of them.  To both reduce salary and trade from area of strength.  They could afford to lose one high leverage arm if keeping Jax and or Varland.  Ultimately they traded all three which seems dangerous IMO but here we are.

I guess I never saw the benefit but I will wait to see how the next season plays out.

The current payroll sits at $93M and adding Jax and Duran makes it $103M. I guess anything over $100M is a deal breaker. Varland? That was a curious decision. People are suggesting relief pitchers are fungible and easily replaced and yet teams are paying guys less capable anywhere from $10-20M per year on extended contracts. Are the other teams all wrong?

The Draft? Take the best, most athletic player available.

[AceWrigley]

1 hour ago, terrydactyls said:

At last we have a new topic to beat to death.

 

[old nurse]

17 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

I'm just curious why the Twins were going to trade Duran or Jax. Why?

A million reasons, all empty seats

[Dman]

1 minute ago, tony&rodney said:

I guess I never saw the benefit but I will wait to see how the next season plays out.

The current payroll sits at $93M and adding Jax and Duran makes it $103M. I guess anything over $100M is a deal breaker. Varland? That was a curious decision. People are suggesting relief pitchers are fungible and easily replaced and yet teams are paying guys less capable anywhere from $10-20M per year on extended contracts. Are the other teams all wrong?

Would you say the Twins are a bullpen arm away from the World series right now?  Would you say it easier to find an elite starting pitcher than a reliever? Or an elite position player than elite reliever?  Would you rather have Griffen Jax this year and a 4.23 ERA or Danny Coulombe and 2.30 ERA. Relievers that don't cost that much are found every year.  Much harder at other spots. Twins can't afford 20M dollar relievers does that mean they have no chance at WS title?