James Outman, Out of Options, Out of a Job? Probably Not.

[Eric Blonigen]

Image courtesy of © Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images

Derek Falvey is clearly reluctant to lose a player that could even potentially be an asset for nothing. It seems like each season, we can find examples of the front office being slow to cut bait with guys who seem incapable of contributing to wins. In 2023, it was Joey Gallo taking at bats from guys like Matt Wallner. The following season, it was Manuel Margot who got inexplicable at bats despite being objectively terrible the entire season. On the pitching front, they traded for Jorge Lopez in 2023 and he was…not good, but stuck around too long. The following year, Trevor Richards was the lone trade acquisition during the season. There was no reason to believe he would be good, and he wasn’t.

The latest iteration of this trend is likely to be their handling of James Outman, who they traded Brock Stewart for in the July selloff, and who is out of options. If one assumes that Trevor Larnach and Byron Buxton are still on the team in April, and that Austin Martin showed enough down the stretch to earn a roster spot, then it seems that there is one outfield position remaining until Emmanual Rodriguez or Walker Jenkins are ready to claim it.

 

That last spot will likely be a battle between James Outman and Alan Roden . If history says anything about the future, then Outman is likely to prevail despite being the worse candidate, simply on the merits of being out of options and having more experience. Let’s look at the two players.

James Outman

Outman, frankly, seems in danger of washing out. In 2023, his first full season, he was worth 3.9 fWAR. That season, he did everything, a lot of it pretty well. He was a plus defender, playing a legitimate center field. He stole 16 bags, hit 23 home runs, and walked 12% of the time. He seemed to be the Dodgers' center fielder of the future. That is, unless you looked under the hood and realized his hitting might be a mirage. He did a great job of pulling the ball in the air, and that was the primary driver of his offensive prowess. In fact, his launch angle sweet spot rate was in the 89th percentile that season. But, his overall hard-hit rate was below average, his average exit velocity was in the 22nd percentile, and he swung through too many pitches, leading to a lot of strikeouts. Those are all yellow flags at best, as he didn’t make enough contact for the pulled balls to carry his offensive game.

Then, starting in 2024, Outman seemingly forgot how to play baseball entirely. Over the past two seasons, he has put up roughly 50% of the production of an average hitter, has stolen a combined three bases, and hit just 10 homers. He’s been a subpar defender despite spending almost as much time in the corners as in center, and has performed poorly in high-leverage situations. His walk rate is down by a third, as well. Looking at his underlying metrics, he has started chasing more, and has lost a bit of bat speed. His strikeout rate has elevated from a quite high 31.9% in 2023 to an untenable 42.6% in 2025. Making matters even worse, the quality of his contact has dropped markedly. Rather than pulling the ball in the air, he’s been pulling it on the ground, which almost always leads to an out. In short, he’s been a mess.

Outman, unlike Roden, does not have age on his side. 2026 will be his age-29 season, and it’s fair to expect some natural decline in the speed and athleticism-related parts of his game. So, if he’s not hitting, not taking walks, not running, and not defending well, then what utility does he offer the Twins? Seriously, I’m asking you, because I can’t find any.

Realistically, it doesn’t seem like the Twins should have traded for Outman in the first place. Knowing their surplus of left-handed outfielders, and the pyrrhic nature of his one good season, it didn’t seem like a good fit at the time. Of course, Stewart immediately got injured, so it may be one of those lose-lose trades. However, the trade itself is a sunk cost. Any investment in Outman at this point is not; it will come at the expense of playing time or a roster spot for younger, better, and higher-upside players.

Alan Roden

Alan Roden, headed into the 2025 season, was ranked the Blue Jays' number five prospect by MLB Pipeline. He had gained significant helium on the strength of a monster 2024 season in which he walked almost as much as he struck out, and had a .314/.406/.510/.916 slash line with Triple-A Buffalo. When the Twins made the unpopular decision to trade Louis Varland for Roden and Kendry Rojas , FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen ranked Roden the sixth-best prospect moved at the deadline. He wrote, of Roden, “Recent rookie graduate with plus contact skills, but less power than is ideal for a corner outfielder. Big league-ready platoon bat.”

While he didn’t quite impress in his first taste of big league action, he was roughly a replacement-level player, worth -0.1 fWAR. The former third-round pick was limited to just 153 plate appearances before injuring his hand and ending his season. His walk rate was half his career norm, and his strikeout rate was nearly double. However, there’s almost always an adjustment period for prospects as they get used to major league pitching, particularly with the adjustment from an automated strike zone to a manual one.

Roden very much has a bright future once he learns to hit Major League pitching, and it’s a fairly safe bet he will, since he has hit at every level of the minors. That may happen sooner rather than later. His batting average on balls in play was an unsustainably low .240 in his small 2025 sample, so positive regression should occur once he learns the zone and is able to make higher-quality contact.

At this point, Roden really doesn’t have much to prove at Triple-A. And yet, he seems an odds-on favorite to begin the season there in favor of James Outman. You know why? He can still be optioned, and that probably means he will be.

Hopefully, Derek Falvey has learned from the mistakes made in past seasons and will be quicker to move on from a player that doesn’t have much to offer in favor of a younger one who has plenty of projectability. And hopefully, that move happens in spring training, if not sooner.

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[Ricky Vaughn]

The Twins will DFA him in June with a BA of .163

[tony&rodney]

Yes, this is a litmus test.

[karcherd]

1 hour ago, Ricky Vaughn said:

The Twins will DFA him in June with a BA of .163

My prediction is mid to late August because his turn around is just around the corner and he will be close to breaking out.  Don't want to cut bait too early.

[Blyleven2011]

The twins always do the wrong thing , i agree they will keep Outman on the 26 man roster out of spring training even if he gets no hits during preseason to prove himself ...

There plan always seems to be , never to play their best players or give a higher upside prospect a chance to prove themselves out of spring training  ...

The out of options has guaranteed alot of players that didn't earn a job in spring training to make the 26 man roster out of spring training ...

We still have several players on the 40 man roster that have no business being on it , falvey continues to live on hope ...

[LewFordLives]

Maybe Outman has "intangibles".

[terrydactyls]

If Outman gets a haircut, maybe he makes the opening day roster.  Otherwise, he's gone.

[Mike Sixel]

4 hours ago, Eric Blonigen said:

Image courtesy of © Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images

Derek Falvey is clearly reluctant to lose a player that could even potentially be an asset for nothing. It seems like each season, we can find examples of the front office being slow to cut bait with guys who seem incapable of contributing to wins. In 2023, it was Joey Gallo taking at bats from guys like Matt Wallner. The following season, it was Manuel Margot who got inexplicable at bats despite being objectively terrible the entire season. On the pitching front, they traded for Jorge Lopez in 2023 and he was…not good, but stuck around too long. The following year, Trevor Richards was the lone trade acquisition during the season. There was no reason to believe he would be good, and he wasn’t.

The latest iteration of this trend is likely to be their handling of James Outman, who they traded Brock Stewart for in the July selloff, and who is out of options. If one assumes that Trevor Larnach and Byron Buxton are still on the team in April, and that Austin Martin showed enough down the stretch to earn a roster spot, then it seems that there is one outfield position remaining until Emmanual Rodriguez or Walker Jenkins are ready to claim it.

 

That last spot will likely be a battle between James Outman and Alan Roden . If history says anything about the future, then Outman is likely to prevail despite being the worse candidate, simply on the merits of being out of options and having more experience. Let’s look at the two players.

James Outman

Outman, frankly, seems in danger of washing out. In 2023, his first full season, he was worth 3.9 fWAR. That season, he did everything, a lot of it pretty well. He was a plus defender, playing a legitimate center field. He stole 16 bags, hit 23 home runs, and walked 12% of the time. He seemed to be the Dodgers' center fielder of the future. That is, unless you looked under the hood and realized his hitting might be a mirage. He did a great job of pulling the ball in the air, and that was the primary driver of his offensive prowess. In fact, his launch angle sweet spot rate was in the 89th percentile that season. But, his overall hard-hit rate was below average, his average exit velocity was in the 22nd percentile, and he swung through too many pitches, leading to a lot of strikeouts. Those are all yellow flags at best, as he didn’t make enough contact for the pulled balls to carry his offensive game.

Then, starting in 2024, Outman seemingly forgot how to play baseball entirely. Over the past two seasons, he has put up roughly 50% of the production of an average hitter, has stolen a combined three bases, and hit just 10 homers. He’s been a subpar defender despite spending almost as much time in the corners as in center, and has performed poorly in high-leverage situations. His walk rate is down by a third, as well. Looking at his underlying metrics, he has started chasing more, and has lost a bit of bat speed. His strikeout rate has elevated from a quite high 31.9% in 2023 to an untenable 42.6% in 2025. Making matters even worse, the quality of his contact has dropped markedly. Rather than pulling the ball in the air, he’s been pulling it on the ground, which almost always leads to an out. In short, he’s been a mess.

Outman, unlike Roden, does not have age on his side. 2026 will be his age-29 season, and it’s fair to expect some natural decline in the speed and athleticism-related parts of his game. So, if he’s not hitting, not taking walks, not running, and not defending well, then what utility does he offer the Twins? Seriously, I’m asking you, because I can’t find any.

Realistically, it doesn’t seem like the Twins should have traded for Outman in the first place. Knowing their surplus of left-handed outfielders, and the pyrrhic nature of his one good season, it didn’t seem like a good fit at the time. Of course, Stewart immediately got injured, so it may be one of those lose-lose trades. However, the trade itself is a sunk cost. Any investment in Outman at this point is not; it will come at the expense of playing time or a roster spot for younger, better, and higher-upside players.

Alan Roden

Alan Roden, headed into the 2025 season, was ranked the Blue Jays' number five prospect by MLB Pipeline. He had gained significant helium on the strength of a monster 2024 season in which he walked almost as much as he struck out, and had a .314/.406/.510/.916 slash line with Triple-A Buffalo. When the Twins made the unpopular decision to trade Louis Varland for Roden and Kendry Rojas , FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen ranked Roden the sixth-best prospect moved at the deadline. He wrote, of Roden, “Recent rookie graduate with plus contact skills, but less power than is ideal for a corner outfielder. Big league-ready platoon bat.”

While he didn’t quite impress in his first taste of big league action, he was roughly a replacement-level player, worth -0.1 fWAR. The former third-round pick was limited to just 153 plate appearances before injuring his hand and ending his season. His walk rate was half his career norm, and his strikeout rate was nearly double. However, there’s almost always an adjustment period for prospects as they get used to major league pitching, particularly with the adjustment from an automated strike zone to a manual one.

Roden very much has a bright future once he learns to hit Major League pitching, and it’s a fairly safe bet he will, since he has hit at every level of the minors. That may happen sooner rather than later. His batting average on balls in play was an unsustainably low .240 in his small 2025 sample, so positive regression should occur once he learns the zone and is able to make higher-quality contact.

At this point, Roden really doesn’t have much to prove at Triple-A. And yet, he seems an odds-on favorite to begin the season there in favor of James Outman. You know why? He can still be optioned, and that probably means he will be.

Hopefully, Derek Falvey has learned from the mistakes made in past seasons and will be quicker to move on from a player that doesn’t have much to offer in favor of a younger one who has plenty of projectability. And hopefully, that move happens in spring training, if not sooner.

 

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Preach 

[Danchat]

Roden doesn't belong in the conversation with Outman, he should be viewed far higher on the totem pole.

2 hours ago, LewFordLives said:

Maybe Outman has "intangibles".

You're reminding me of the Adam Thielen trade... unlike Outman at least he was good in 2024.

[Pat]

Hard to believe that they would even consider him as an alternative. But I am afraid the analysis is correct regarding his future with the Twins,

 

[Parfigliano]

6 hours ago, Ricky Vaughn said:

The Twins will DFA him in June with a BA of .163

That  Outman BA seems high.  I'd put him around .140 BA

[Dawgzilla]

Outman is out man, no pun intended!  He was good only one year, surrounded/protected by many star hitters on Dodgers, whereas not so much with Twins, meaning bye bye!

[Parfigliano]

5 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

The twins always do the wrong thing , i agree they will keep Outman on the 26 man roster out of spring training even if he gets no hits during preseason to prove himself ...

There plan always seems to be , never to play their best players or give a higher upside prospect a chance to prove themselves out of spring training  ...

The out of options has guaranteed alot of players that didn't earn a job in spring training to make the 26 man roster out of spring training ...

We still have several players on the 40 man roster that have no business being on it , falvey continues to live on hope ...

Falvey continues to be well below average at his job.

[stringer bell]

Options available should be the tiebreaker if a competition is close, but shouldn't be the be-all and end-all.

Outman's rookie year looks like a fluke, much more so than Julien's IMHO. If Roden is his equal or better on defense (I think he is), then he should get the nod over Outman.

[sweetmusicviola16]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Preach 

Wow, yeah. 

[DocBauer]

He can't hit, he can't get on base, his power has virtually disappeared, he doesn't steal bases, and apparently he can't play defense any longer. He also can't be optioned, can't even perform at AAA, and he's about out of time as a 29yo.

But yeah, he sure deserves a spot on the 40 man doesn't he?

Probably never should have been traded for. But if you wanted to take a shot to see if a change in scenery could unlock something, OK. But he's already proven he has no game and no future. His spot should have been given to another, younger player, or simply be an open spot for a rule 5 selection.

A 29yo who is awful should never be kept for any reason over a young player that actually has some potential. 

 

[old nurse]

When the dust settled Roden and Martin were on the MLB roster, Outman with the Saints. Outman was called up only after Roden went on the DL.  I would think that would be the telltale sign of what the FO thinks of Outman, They took a flyer. The flyer. turned out to be Icarus. 

[Fatbat]

With all the young prospect talent we have, why is he even here? Who would sell more tickets in April/May, WJ/Erod/Roden in MLB or Outman/Martin/Roden. ….assuming Buck and Wallner are still here.

[theBOMisthebomb]

29 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

With all the young prospect talent we have, why is he even here? Who would sell more tickets in April/May, WJ/Erod/Roden in MLB or Outman/Martin/Roden. ….assuming Buck and Wallner are still here.

None of those guys moves the attendance needle one millimeter. Zero impact. I'd guess even a surprising above .500 start through Memorial Day wouldn't save the attendance figures at Target Field. I know multiple friends and family that have supported the Twins for decades and are now saying they will not watch until the Pohlads are gone/things truly change, etc. This franchise has burned up all goodwill with the ticket buying fanbase. 

[Jasper]

Hoping the team is hanging on to him,trying to get him to AAA for depth only, cutting him and sending down to the minors.

[bean5302]

I'm not as bearish on Outman as others it seems. I don't have high hopes for him or anything, but he did go .289/.378/.592 OPS .970 11.7% BB, 30.3% K last year with the Dodgers AAA club in 333 PA. His sprint speed was 28.5 last year and he's got a cannon arm. In addition, it seems like there was some improvement in expected results (still bad). 

In any case, hopefully, he'll get a good look in Spring Training and turn things back around. I see his 2024 as more of a rookie Danny Santana kind of campaign where it was all smoke and mirrors, but I don't think Outman is a guaranteed negative WAR guy, either.

[Otaknam]

Rosen obviously has an upside over Outman, given his past success in AAA and his age. Hopefully Roden shows enough in the spring to make the roster in place of Outman, who showed nothing after the trade.

[DJL44]

Outman and Julien would be the first players I cut off this 40-man roster. If you need another guy like that during the season, check the waiver wire.

[Woof Bronzer]

51 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I'm not as bearish on Outman as others it seems. I don't have high hopes for him or anything, but he did go .289/.378/.592 OPS .970 11.7% BB, 30.3% K last year with the Dodgers AAA club in 333 PA. p

Unfortunately for Outman, the Twins play in MLB, not AAA.  

[AceWrigley]

3 hours ago, old nurse said:

When the dust settled Roden and Martin were on the MLB roster, Outman with the Saints. Outman was called up only after Roden went on the DL.  I would think that would be the telltale sign of what the FO thinks of Outman, They took a flyer. The flyer. turned out to be Icarus. 

More like the Monty Python parrot.

[jmlease1]

I didn't mind the Twins taking a flier on Outman in a lost campaign; it wasn't crazy to see if there was something that might be fixable to get him back on track. The rookie season was impressive after all, even if there were some yellow flags in the hitting. But he didn't look like a guy capable of being the backup CF in his time with the Twins and looked utterly lost at the plate as well.

Outman's problem right now is that whatever he's doing in AAA (and he's hammered AAA pitching just fine the last 2 seasons) is not translating to MLB at all. Why should we think it's going to get fixed for 2026?

Considering the minor league depth we have for LH corner OF and that others appear to have a better chance to be able to cover CF more effectively, keeping Outman just to potentially keep from losing the asset for nothing is penny wise, pound foolish type thinking. It's the sunk cost fallacy writ large.

I'm fine with bringing him to spring training, but his lack of options shouldn't be a consideration at all. Not at his age or with his track record. I don't know if Roden is going to be a guy or not, but he's 4 years younger and struggling in your first taste of MLB pitching (especially in a season where you get traded) is certainly forgivable. But it should be an open competition for a job as 4th OF between Outman, Roden, Rodriguez, Fedko, and Jenkins (and maybe Gonzalez, though GG isn't a CF either) and I wouldn't put even one grain of extra on the scales because of Outman's lack of options.

[David Maro]

Let's see where the 40 man is after the winter meetings. But Outman should be outside of the 40 man. They need a RH bat as always off the bench to play the OF. Martin is a RH Arraez and they need a bat that has more power. Under this FO the corner outfield positions are a everyday mystery.

[Scott51104]

Maybe there is a scenario for keeping both for a few months, if Roden could use that time to study Outman's black hole.

[Fatbat]

4 hours ago, theBOMisthebomb said:

None of those guys moves the attendance needle one millimeter. Zero impact. I'd guess even a surprising above .500 start through Memorial Day wouldn't save the attendance figures at Target Field. I know multiple friends and family that have supported the Twins for decades and are now saying they will not watch until the Pohlads are gone/things truly change, etc. This franchise has burned up all goodwill with the ticket buying fanbase. 

I disagree. If there are rookies tearing it up like LK did last April and they are 5 games over .500 by 5/1, attendance will creep up with good weather. Winning and hope of watching young stars in the making always improves attendance.  
 

Some 29yo that fans don't even know that he is on the bench and hitting .184 occasionally because he needs to be hidden depresses attendance, hope and hype. 
La Tortuga and Arraez brought fans to the stadium. 
 

Outman, Gasper, Julien and other AAAA guys absolutely depress attendance. 

[Finlander]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

His sprint speed was 28.5 last year and he's got a cannon arm.

Maybe they'll try Outman in the bullpen. Good name for a pitcher!