5 Steps to Designing a (Realistic) Perfect Offseason for the 2025-26 Minnesota Twins

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Yannick Peterhans / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Minnesota Twins enter this offseason in a familiar position. They are talented enough to compete, but flawed enough that one wrong decision could send them tumbling out of contention for the third consecutive season. After an uneven 2025 season, it is clear that the front office needs a coherent plan to put this roster back on track.

It can be easy for fans to say, "Go sign Kyle Tucker or Kyle Schwarber to long-term deals," but those aren’t realistic; Minnesota’s owner-imposed budgetary constraints foreclose those options. Instead, the Twins must work on the margins and find success on a razor-thin line. Last year, they signed Harrison Bader and Danny Coulombe to deals that worked out in the team's favor. Now, the Twins might have even less financial flexibility with which to work. 

Here are five steps the Twins could take to push toward contending again next year.

Step One: Keep Pablo López and Joe Ryan
The blueprint for winning baseball in Minnesota starts with pitching that can match up with anyone in the league. For the Twins, that conversation begins with Pablo López and Joe Ryan. Both pitchers have established themselves as playoff-caliber starters who can carry the club through rough stretches. 

Last season, Ryan was a first-time All-Star. He posted career highs in rWAR (4.5) and ERA+ (125), and his four-seam fastball was its usual, excellent self, worth 1.3 runs above average per 100 thrown. López was limited to 14 starts due to hamstring and shoulder injuries, but posted a 156 ERA+ across 75 2/3 innings. The Twins can hope that a healthy López is back to being a workhorse in 2026, after he averaged over 185 innings per season from 2022-24. 

Moving either hurler would create a hole that the Twins have no realistic path to filling. With a solid foundation already in place, Minnesota should stay the course and let its rotation leaders continue to set the tone.

Step Two: Sign Paul Goldschmidt
Minnesota has leaned on a revolving door of veteran first basemen in recent years, and bringing in Goldschmidt would extend that trend. Ty France, Carlos Santana, and Donovan Solano were recent one-year solutions at first, but Goldschmidt is a different level of player. He is no longer the intimidating MVP threat he once was, but he remains a dependable defender and a disciplined hitter. Last season, he played 146 games for the Yankees and posted a .731 OPS and a 104 OPS+.

Diamond Centric predicts that he will sign a one-year, $6-million contract that should be in Minnesota's budget. His ability to lengthen the batting order and provide clubhouse leadership could make him an ideal short-term addition. The Twins can hope that he has one final impact season left, and that his bat brings needed balance to the middle of the lineup.

Step Three: Re-Sign Caleb Thielbar
The bullpen has become a major offseason concern after last season’s trade deadline, and adding stability should be a priority. Thielbar has meant a great deal to the organization, and he remains an effective option when healthy. Minnesota let him leave in free agency last season, and he continued to show value with the Cubs. In 67 appearances (58 IP), he posted a 2.64 ERA (147 ERA+) with a 25.5% strikeout rate and a 5.9% walk rate. More importantly, he held lefties to a .161/.211/.276 line in 95 plate appearances. 

Bringing him back would add needed experience to a relief corps that lacks established late-inning arms. The market for a 39-year-old reliever will likely be muted. His presence alone will not fix the bullpen, but it would give the Twins a known quantity who can bridge the gap while other roles are sorted out.

Step Four: Transition a Trio of Young Starters to Relief Roles
The Twins have invested heavily in young pitching, but injuries have slowed the development of several promising arms. Marco Raya, Connor Prielipp, and Zebby Matthews all offer interesting starting pitcher traits, but their health histories raise fundamental questions about their long-term durability.

Raya has seemed destined for a bullpen role for a couple of seasons, with the Twins tightly managing his workload while aggressively promoting him. Last season at Triple-A St. Paul, he posted a 6.02 ERA with a 22.6% strikeout rate and a 12.6% walk rate. Prielipp finally had a healthy season, including pitching at Double-A Wichita and for St. Paul. The Twins may want to give him one more season to be a starter, but they went through a similar transformation with Jhoan Duran. Like Prielipp, Duran dealt with injuries in the minors before the team decided to let him cook in the bullpen. 

Matthews might have the most straightforward path to a bullpen role. He’s already seen a velocity increase since joining the Twins. His four-seamer and slider could be his primary offerings in the bullpen, while dumping his other pitches. A spring training move to the pen could give Minnesota a wave of high-upside relief help while lowering injury risk. Shorter outings could unlock additional velocity and give the relief corps the swing-and-miss capability that was often missing last season.

Step Five: Give Emmanuel Rodriguez an Opening Day Job
The Twins need an offensive spark, and Rodriguez fits the profile of a player ready to provide it. His minor-league résumé shows patience, power, and the ability to change the game on both sides of the runs ledger. He showcased all these skills during the Dominican Winter League, including winning the All-Star Game MVP. Rodriguez has little left to prove in the minors, and Minnesota should give him the chance to grow at the major-league level from Day One. 

Unfortunately, Minnesota’s outfield depth chart is filled with other left-handed bats, including Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner, James Outman, and Alan Roden. Minnesota would need to trade one or more of these players to move Rodriguez onto the 26-man roster. Walker Jenkins might be the higher-ranked prospect, but expecting him to be ready by Opening Day feels premature. Rodriguez brings upside and urgency to a lineup that needs both.

Minnesota has the pieces to build a contender in 2026. By keeping their rotation intact, adding targeted veterans, infusing the bullpen with young talent, and trusting a high-ceiling bat, the Twins can chart a clear and competitive path forward.

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What would you realistically change about this offseason plan? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

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[old nurse]

Goldschmidt has been in decline for the last 2 years. He is now below average hitter for a 1b. Larnach had an OPS of .727 and people are calling to get rid of him, now you want to add a hitter with a .732 OPS.

Outman can be DFAd, Martin, Larnach, Roden, and Martin all have options remaining. They do not have to trade anyone to open a roster spot. About the only way they would get traded is to be included with a prospect in trade for a MLB level player 

[tony&rodney]

Maybe use the GM Roster Tool and show your team for $100-110M. This may need to be $90M. Also, guess the win total.

While I'm supportive of some of your ideas (#3-5), they don't push the team toward a ,500 record. In addition, Jeffers uses his last year and Lopez and Ryan are now closer to FA. 

Finally, when one suggests realistic it sweeps aside other thoughts as less than realistic/unrealistic. It is impossible for any of us to predict the 2026 roster just as it was for the last several years. The most realistic roster is the one listed right now. That group will not cut it, unless one believes the Twins were just unlucky last season. There are always going to be people who think the Twins were close to the playoffs but suffered bad luck. Realism is here and now. There are options that can be accomplished. Realism, as far as the Twins roster, is whatever the front office desires.

[RpR]

Rodriguez is just average in AAA, he has show nothing to be called starter; bring him up for a look-see, depends on how he would do in Spring Training.

Goldschmidt is a glass that is either half full or half empty depending on one's prejudices.

Clemens had a good glove at First which does not make Goldschmidt a true need at First.

Martin was fairly good at Second; Keaschall , his glove work too closely resembles Julien  - so far.

Short Stop is the BIG need; Lee is not good enough, while Lewis is , even improved, a midiocre Third baseman; Lee was good there last year.

[Major League Ready]

If things go really well and our SPs stay healthy, that sounds like a 75 win team at best.  How can that be perfect?

[ashbury]

46 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

If things go really well and our SPs stay healthy, that sounds like a 75 win team at best.  How can that be perfect?

Came here to ask, "and what's the expected number of wins after this PERFECT offseason?" but you ninja'd me by 22 minutes or so.  😁

You picked a number slightly higher than I had in mind.

[chpettit19]

"Here are five steps the Twins could take to push toward contending again next year." Are we just using some technicality speak here to suggest these 5 moves slightly improve the team so they'd technically "push toward contending?" Paul Goldschmidt? Based on his trajectory over the last couple seasons he'll be a below average hitter next year, but that's supposed to be the bat we're missing at first?

@Major League Ready called this a 75-win team, at best. @ashbury said that was a little higher than their estimate. I'll say it's about a 65–70-win team. This article starts from a premise I simply don't agree with in saying "they are talented enough to compete." They aren't. Did you not watch the last 2 months of the season? These 5 moves don't move them meaningfully closer to contention.

I'm usually one of the more positive posters around here during the offseason, but I just don't get how people are looking at this roster and seeing any real shot at contention. I've been mostly wrong about my optimism in recent years so maybe I'll continue my streak of being wrong and this roster will have a dozen guys outplay any reasonable projection.

[TJSweens]

1. Keep Lopez and Ryan. Great. They will both be at reasonable contracts and are in their primes.

2. Goldschmidt? Meh. First base is an offensive position and Goldschmidt is declining and was barely major league average last year.

3. Theilbar? Sure, why not. He's as good as any bargain left hand arm they can pick up.

4. Move the kids to the pen? Raya...yes. Prielipp...no. The Twins see him as a future high end starter. The focus should be on getting him there. There is time to move him to the pen if he fails as a starter.  Matthews...hell no. He had some success as a starter last year. See if he can take next step. He could well prove be better than Bradley or Abel.

5. Rodriguez. I'm all for getting the young studs up as soon as there ready, but Rodriguez has to come to camp and earn it. Nothing gets handed to him.

[Parfigliano]

A team that realistically could find Gasper and Outman on the 26 man roster is not a team that can compete.  Even in the weak AL Central.

[soyouresayingtheresachance]

I have to disagree for #2. Just not interested in him for the same reasons im not interested in Larnach staying on the team. Not enough offense for the position and not enough defense. Nathielle Lowe would better a better option, possibly in a similar price range. 

I would also propose addressing Ryan Jeffers and the catching situation. Either sign him long term or trade him and sign someone like Jonah Heim. Trading Jeffers could possibly bring in a better 1B option. 

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, ashbury said:

Came here to ask, "and what's the expected number of wins after this PERFECT offseason?" but you ninja'd me by 22 minutes or so.  😁

You picked a number slightly higher than I had in mind.

I actually totally agree with you and Chpettit19 that it's more likely 70 wins but I thought using an optimistic number kind of drives home the point.  

[ashbury]

28 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I actually totally agree with you and Chpettit19 that it's more likely 70 wins but I thought using an optimistic number kind of drives home the point.  

It costs nothing to be kind.

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

"Here are five steps the Twins could take to push toward contending again next year." Are we just using some technicality speak here to suggest these 5 moves slightly improve the team so they'd technically "push toward contending?" Paul Goldschmidt? Based on his trajectory over the last couple seasons he'll be a below average hitter next year, but that's supposed to be the bat we're missing at first?

@Major League Ready called this a 75-win team, at best. @ashbury said that was a little higher than their estimate. I'll say it's about a 65–70-win team. This article starts from a premise I simply don't agree with in saying "they are talented enough to compete." They aren't. Did you not watch the last 2 months of the season? These 5 moves don't move them meaningfully closer to contention.

I'm usually one of the more positive posters around here during the offseason, but I just don't get how people are looking at this roster and seeing any real shot at contention. I've been mostly wrong about my optimism in recent years so maybe I'll continue my streak of being wrong and this roster will have a dozen guys outplay any reasonable projection.

The team needs change and talent must be added. This is a mantra I have pushed relentlessly, thinking positively towards the future. 

Perhaps, and I have wondered about this, a ton of people on Twins Daily totally checked out after the All Star Break and only followed the team from time to time. Maybe people looked at the numbers and a few videos. That is not an unusual or unreasonable thing considering the deadline deals in late July and how those months progressed.

A factor that keeps people wanting to see this group do well next season may lie in the fear of two tough years with a real rebuild.

Those who watched the last two months saw the distance between the currently rostered players and a respectable (say 75 wins) squad. So, a few of us have clamored for change.

It makes sense that people hold on to the notion that the Twins can contend in 2026 if .... However, the "ifs" are monumental to the tune of a great fortune for those who bet $1,000. It could happen. Don't bet on it.

[GNess]

The Twins are in an awkward self-imposed spot n which they are semi-competitive if they keep Buxton, Lopez, Ryan and Jeffers. But they are actually a good bit away from being a serious threat. While they have reasonable depth in the minors, it's not like they have a bunch of high end prospects who project as MLB All-Star level players. (Jenkins? Who else?) Nor have they shown much expertise in bringing out the best in the prospects they have had and do have currently.

Most professional franchises which find themselves in such a spot lean heavily into trying tø spend and trade their way out or tear it down and become really adept at acquiring prospects and effectively developing them into productive major leaguers. 

This is premised on the idea that the organization is genuinely interested in competing for championships. I remain a skeptic in terms of the actual intentions of ownership and the FO. based on their actions and inactions.

Given those parameters it would appear the Twins may be experiencing a prolonged bout of mediums and lows. 

Like many others I will stick around to watch it unfold and support the Twins with hopes that somehow they'll thread the needle. (Maybe that makes us a small part of the problem inasmuch as it in some ways allows for the organization to maintain the status quo.)

[dxpavelka]

I like it but, dude, you just said, and I quote "Minnesota can build a contender."  Read the room.  You're gonna get crucified on this site.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, GNess said:

The Twins are in an awkward self-imposed spot n which they are semi-competitive if they keep Buxton, Lopez, Ryan and Jeffers. But they are actually a good bit away from being a serious threat. While they have reasonable depth in the minors, it's not like they have a bunch of high end prospects who project as MLB All-Star level players. (Jenkins? Who else?) Nor have they shown much expertise in bringing out the best in the prospects they have had and do have currently.

Most professional franchises which find themselves in such a spot lean heavily into trying tø spend and trade their way out or tear it down and become really adept at acquiring prospects and effectively developing them into productive major leaguers. 

This is premised on the idea that the organization is genuinely interested in competing for championships. I remain a skeptic in terms of the actual intentions of ownership and the FO. based on their actions and inactions.

Given those parameters it would appear the Twins may be experiencing a prolonged bout of mediums and lows. 

Like many others I will stick around to watch it unfold and support the Twins with hopes that somehow they'll thread the needle. (Maybe that makes us a small part of the problem inasmuch as it in some ways allows for the organization to maintain the status quo.)

I watch or listen to them almost every game.  Wife and I go to 3-4 games at Target and to a series somewhere on the road every year.  I imagine it will be the same this year even though they are probably going to win 67 games tops.

[Jacksson]

7 hours ago, old nurse said:

Outman can be DFAd, Martin, Larnach, Roden, and Martin all have options remaining.  

Who is the SECOND player named Martin?

[DJL44]

I like steps one, four and five. Those are going to be essential to winning.

Steps two and three: I would rather see them find someone younger for first base. If they have Funderburk and Prielipp in the bullpen then they don't need another lefty reliever.

They absolutely have to find another shortstop and another first baseman if they want to contend. I think Jordan Lawlar is the right combination of talented and blocked in his organization and I'd be more than willing to offer Bailey Ober to acquire him.

There are lots of available first basemen younger than Goldschmidt. I think Spencer Steer has everything they're looking for at a lower salary, and I think they may be able to get him for Trevor Larnach and a prospect in the 20-30 range. Plus, that frees up the spot in the outfield for Emmanuel Rodriguez (or Gonzalez or Jenkins). 

There are a few more things to do this offseason

6) Extend Ryan Jeffers contract. They have to either extend him or trade him and if they want to contend that means a contract extension.

7) Spend some money on the bullpen. You'll notice that the only transaction I've outlined above that costs anything is extending Jeffers. The two trades actually lower the payroll to the $85M range. That gives them cash to throw at relief pitching. They need to think bigger than Caleb Thielbar. Kenley Jansen is as proven of a closer as you can get and the estimated contract is one year for $9M. He wants to get to 500 saves and is looking for a team that will let him close games. The Twins are a great fit.

OF: Buxton, Wallner, Martin, Roden, Rodriguez

IF: Lewis, Lawlar, Keaschall, Steer, Lee, Clemens

C: Jeffers, Jackson

SP: Lopez, Ryan, Bradley, Woods Richardson, Matthews

RP: Jansen, Festa, Prielipp, Sands, Orze, Funderburk, Topa, optionable rookie

That's not a World Series contender, but they have a chance at the weak AL Central.

[Twinsrtheworst]

11 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

"Here are five steps the Twins could take to push toward contending again next year." Are we just using some technicality speak here to suggest these 5 moves slightly improve the team so they'd technically "push toward contending?" Paul Goldschmidt? Based on his trajectory over the last couple seasons he'll be a below average hitter next year, but that's supposed to be the bat we're missing at first?

@Major League Ready called this a 75-win team, at best. @ashbury said that was a little higher than their estimate. I'll say it's about a 65–70-win team. This article starts from a premise I simply don't agree with in saying "they are talented enough to compete." They aren't. Did you not watch the last 2 months of the season? These 5 moves don't move them meaningfully closer to contention.

I'm usually one of the more positive posters around here during the offseason, but I just don't get how people are looking at this roster and seeing any real shot at contention. I've been mostly wrong about my optimism in recent years so maybe I'll continue my streak of being wrong and this roster will have a dozen guys outplay any reasonable projection.

No offense but you may have the words optimistic and pessimistic mixed up?  

[Nashvilletwin]

Cody, I respect your opinion, but just disagree with it. But differing opinions is what makes the world go ‘round, thankfully.

Interestingly, I actually think step 1 is a given for this FO.  And step 2 (whether it’s Goldschmidt or someone else) fits right into the FO’s usual playbook.  So, some combo of your plan is probably exactly what will happen.

At least out of the gate.  Come July when it’s clear the team just cannot compete, then the second great purge will occur with Ryan, Lopez, Buck and Jeffers gone.

This FO is going to roll the dice on the health and performance of their three/four biggest assets to give the fans some early season hope and drive ticket sales. If the team plays well, then  they stick with the plan. If not, they jettison the assets later.  The cost of this strategy is the risk regarding the return those assets might bring later rather than earlier.  This FO will be willing to take that risk. 

So, although I disagree with the your plan Cody, I do think some subset of what you propose starting with #1 is exactly what the FO will do.

Happy Thanksgiving to all TDers! 

 

 

[Otaknam]

That would be a way to rebuild the carpet bombed bullpen, but Raya and Prielipp would be inexperienced. Hope the give Prielipp one more try at starting, as they believe he has electric stuff when healthy. And they could use a lefty starter for a change.

[arby58]

13 hours ago, RpR said:

Rodriguez is just average in AAA, he has show nothing to be called starter; bring him up for a look-see, depends on how he would do in Spring Training.

The league average OPS in the AAA International League in 2025 was approximately .750 - how is a player with an OPS of .853 'just average in AAA?' He's on basically evey list of the top 100 prospects in baseball - again, that doesn't scream 'just average in AAA.'

[sstolen]

13 hours ago, RpR said:

Rodriguez is just average in AAA, he has show nothing to be called starter; bring him up for a look-see, depends on how he would do in Spring Training.

Goldschmidt is a glass that is either half full or half empty depending on one's prejudices.

Clemens had a good glove at First which does not make Goldschidt a true need at First.

Martin was fairly good at Second; Keaschall , his glove work too closely resembles Julien  - so far.

Short Stop is the BIG need; Lee is not good enough, while Lewis is , even improved, a midiocre Third baseman; Lee was good there last year.

Lot of opinions... in the end, "no one knows"

Im planning to a be fan and know that being a fan is all I am. Management will do what they'll do and I will cheer on my team...managing expectations alongbtge way. We. Don't. Know.

[Whitey333]

When looking at the roster and all the names people throw out there for Twins players being so talented I cringe.  I suspect that several of the players on the 40 man would likely clear waivers is DFA.  IMO they need to continue The teardown and possibly trade BOTH Ryan and Lopez.  I want them on the team but with the current roster it doesn't make sense to keep a very good starter In Lopez making  over 21 mil.  Ryan is good but has had bad second halves each of the past two seasons. You could probably get a decent return for him.  Also I would trade during this off season and not wait for the trade deadline. With a possible lockout coming in 2027 I can't see too many impact trades happening at the deadline.  

 

 

[jorgenswest]

As the roster stands now here is a win projection from Fangraphs. They have the Twins at 82-80. A trade of Lopez or Ryan would certainly change that projection.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, se7799 said:

No offense but you may have the words optimistic and pessimistic mixed up?  

No offense taken as I'm guessing you have no idea what my posts during the last few offseasons were. For example, I predicted between 82 and 87 wins for the Twins last year. That was wildly optimistic and I was way off. As of today I'm predicting 65 to 70 wins next year. I'd love to be wrong again and have them win 85-90.

I know what those words mean and you're welcome to go back through my posts the last few offseasons and see me defending the team and predicting far more success than they actually had. 

[stringer bell]

The current roster is pretty bad, with some rather big holes to fill. There is talent, particularly pitching talent and potential mostly in young outfielders (counting Jenkins who is not on the roster). The moves listed could lift the Twins to contention if everything went right, but the better course probably includes trading high value assets and getting a return to fill where this roster is weak.

[Riverbrian]

11 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

The team needs change and talent must be added. This is a mantra I have pushed relentlessly, thinking positively towards the future. 

Perhaps, and I have wondered about this, a ton of people on Twins Daily totally checked out after the All Star Break and only followed the team from time to time. Maybe people looked at the numbers and a few videos. That is not an unusual or unreasonable thing considering the deadline deals in late July and how those months progressed.

A factor that keeps people wanting to see this group do well next season may lie in the fear of two tough years with a real rebuild.

Those who watched the last two months saw the distance between the currently rostered players and a respectable (say 75 wins) squad. So, a few of us have clamored for change.

It makes sense that people hold on to the notion that the Twins can contend in 2026 if .... However, the "ifs" are monumental to the tune of a great fortune for those who bet $1,000. It could happen. Don't bet on it.

I kept watching. I didn’t check out.
 

IMO the main difference post deadline was pitching. Bullpen was completely untrustworthy while starters like Ryan and Ober were struggling. 
 

Offensively. They looked the same without Correa, Bader and France. Looked better once they started running the bases. 

[Jeff K]

No to Goldschmidt.  The Twins need to solve first base long term.  Probably from an existing minor leaguer in the system.  Trade Larnach, for anything.  I wouldn't have tendered him.  I'm not the fan of Raya that many seem to be.  Definitely need to convert some starters including Prielipp to relief.  Give the keys to the youngsters in the Outfield + Buxton (if he is still here).  I would trade Ryan, but only for a kings ransom.

[Mahoning]

This looks more like an argument for trading both Ryan and Lopez, plus Buxton if he would consent, because the "improvements" suggested are so tepid. On the hitting side it is a lineup with ONE star, Buxton, maybe two if Keaschall turns out to be real. What opposing team would fear that lineup? This would be the Pirates of the American League -- putrid but profitable.