Rule 5 Roster Math: Six Twins Prospects Too Valuable to Lose and Six At-Risk Prospects

[Seth Stohs]

On Thursday, major league teams, including the Minnesota Twins, made a flurry of roster moves to start their offseason roster clean-up. Some players were removed from the 40-man roster, and when they cleared, they elected free agency. The Angels claimed Cody Laweryson. One former top prospect also became a free agent. In addition, the 60-Day Injured List doesn’t exist in the offseason. 

The Twins' 40-man roster is currently at 33, including 14 pitchers, two catchers, five infielders, eight outfielders, and four utility players. 

Over the next couple of weeks, there will be more changes. The deadline for non-tendering arbitration-eligible players is in two weeks. Just a few days earlier, on November 18, teams will have to add players to their 40-man roster to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft. As of today, the Twins could add seven more players to the 40-man roster without other moves. Most years, two to four players get added, but this offseason, the Twins have quite a few players who likely need to be added. There are just as many, if not more, players one could make a case for protecting. 

---

The following several paragraphs discuss some of the rules of the Rule 5 draft regarding eligibility, costs, requirements for a selected player, etc. If you feel you’ve got a good grasp on that information and really just want to see who I think will be added, feel free to scroll down to the subheading: The Givens. 

Real quick, who is eligible for the 2025 MLB Rule 5 draft? Down below, you can see every single Twins player who is eligible (as of now) for the December event. At a high level, players eligible are: 

1. not on the MLB team’s 40-man roster, 
2. if they signed after age 19 and have been in the minors for at least four years.
3. if they signed before age 19 and have been in the minor leagues for at least five years. 

Specifically for next month’s Rule 5, that means: 

1. They don’t get added before or on November 18, and 
2. Players signed when they were 16-18 years old in 2021. That includes international players and most high school draft picks. 
3. Players signed after they turned 19 years old in 2022. 
4. Players who were eligible for previous Rule 5 drafts. In other words, a high school player from the 2020 draft who meets the other criteria is still eligible. 
5. Also of note, Players drafted or signed in 2019 who are not on the 40-man roster right now became free agents late last week. They are not eligible unless they sign a minor-league contract with a team before the Rule 5 draft. 

Digging deeper. If a Major League roster has fewer than 40 players on it, it may choose a player in the Rule 5 draft. As of writing this, the Twins have 33 players on their 40-man roster, so in theory, they could draft up to seven players in the Rule 5 draft. They won’t, but they could take one. If they do, they would need to pay $100,000 to the organization from which they selected him. The player must stay on the team’s active roster (on the injured list) for the entire season. If the team wants to send him to the minor leagues, they have to offer him back to the original team for $50,000. There is a strategy to it as well, and that’s where today’s topic becomes essential. 

If the Twins add seven of their players to the 40-man roster (and make no other moves before the Rule 5), they would be unable to make a selection. In addition, players added to the 40-man roster in November and those taken in the Rule 5 draft must remain on the 40-man roster until spring training. That means that if the Twins want to sign a free agent to an MLB contract between December and February, they would need to remove another player from the 40-man roster. That’s why there are some players still on the Twins' 40-man roster now, and you may wonder about the likelihood of them remaining on the 40-man roster throughout the offseason. 

Note that just a couple of days after players are added to the 40-man roster is the non-tender day. The Twins entered the offseason with the potential of 10 arbitration-eligible players. Roster transactions following the World Series have removed four of them from being eligible for arbitration. Could the Twins non-tender any of those six, or not tender 2026 contracts to anyone else on the 40-man? We shall see. 

That is a lot of strategy before even getting to the stuff you’re here to read. But I always feel it is important to understand the above for multiple reasons. First, the $100,000 price tag is not a lot to work with a player in the offseason and spring training before potentially finding a gem, or getting $50,000 back in spring training as the Twins did last year with the Phillies and Eiberson Castellanos. 

It isn’t ideal to lose players in the Rule 5 draft, so you want to protect the right players. It just takes one team to be interested in an eligible player to potentially lose him. So the most significant factor in that decision is whether that player will be able to stick on a big league roster for the entire 2026 season. How close is that player to being able to help a team in some capacity, even if for a year, that’s defense and base running, or enough “stuff” and experience to be a late-inning reliever who comes into low-leverage situations? That’s the role Johan Santana started in when the Twins acquired him in a Rule 5 trade. Does the player have much experience in the upper levels of the minors to hold a spot? Last year’s first overall pick in the Rule 5 draft was the White Sox, and they selected Shane Smith from the Brewers organization. Smith went to the All-Star game. That is rare. 

OK, with all that, you are here to read my thoughts on which players the Twins will (or should) add to their 40-man roster to protect them from being a potential loss in the Rule 5 draft. 

---

The Givens 

There are six players that the Twins have to add to the 40-man roster. If any of the six are not added, another team may select them. Let’s start with those. 

Right-Handed Corner Outfielder: Gabriel Gonzalez
Twins Daily #9 Ranked Prospect 

When the Twins acquired outfielder Gabriel Gonzalez from Seattle in the Jorge Polanco trade early in 2024, he was ranked No. 79 overall by MLB Pipeline. His first year in the organization was rocky. He battled a back injury that sidelined him for half the season and posted a modest .255 average at High-A, showing little power against older competition. 

Everything changed in 2025. Gonzalez opened the year by returning to High-A Cedar Rapids, hitting .319 with 12 doubles and five homers in 34 games. Promoted to Double-A Wichita, he dominated with a .344 average, 19 doubles, and four home runs over 55 games. He capped the season in Triple-A St. Paul, batting .316 with seven doubles and six homers in 34 games. Across three levels, Gonzalez recorded 38 doubles, three triples, and 15 home runs. More importantly, he consistently made hard contact and showed the offensive upside the Twins have long sought in a right-handed corner outfielder. 

Still, Gonzalez isn’t a finished product. He will likely benefit from more Triple-A time to refine his defense, though his strong arm is an asset. Turning 22 early in 2026, his physical frame suggests even greater power potential ahead. If his development continues on this trajectory, Gonzalez could soon become a key piece in Minnesota’s lineup. 

Left-Handed Pitcher: Connor Prielipp
Twins Daily #6 Ranked Prospect

When the Twins drafted Tomah, Wisconsin native Connor Prielipp in the second round of the 2022 draft, they were betting on upside. The former Alabama ace had missed most of 2021 and all of 2022 recovering from Tommy John surgery, but before the draft, he was already touching 97 mph. The southpaw was a first-round talent. After two years of limited innings, 2025 marked a breakthrough. Prielipp stayed healthy for 24 appearances (23 starts), logging 82 2/3 innings under a carefully managed workload. Early outings were capped at 50 pitches, but by season’s end, he was surpassing 75 pitches regularly. In his final start, he threw six innings and 84 pitches—a milestone for a pitcher once sidelined for nearly two seasons. 

Across Double-A and Triple-A, Prielipp showed flashes of dominance while refining his arsenal. His fastball averaged 94 mph and reached 98, complemented by a sharp slider that topped 87 mph and a developing changeup. Though he allowed runs in most outings, he maintained velocity deep into games. He also experimented with grips and pitching sequencing, and will need to continue doing so. Turning 25 in January, Prielipp is trending toward a big-league role sometime in 2026. With health and continued development, his ceiling remains very high, and the Twins won’t risk exposing him to the Rule 5 draft.

Right-Handed Pitcher: Andrew Morris
Twins Daily #15-Ranked Prospect  

Andrew Morris is back, and better than ever. After a breakout 2024 season, which saw him rocket through High-A Cedar Rapids, Double-A Wichita, and Triple-A St. Paul, the right-hander hit a speed bump in 2025 with a midseason injury. However, by the end of the year, Morris reminded everyone why he’s one of the Twins’ most intriguing young arms, flashing improved velocity and a pitch mix that screams big-league starter.

Early in the season, Morris was already impressive, sitting 94–95 mph with his four-seam fastball and touching 97. He paired it with a heavy sinker in the low 90s, a cutter in the upper 80s, and a mid-80s sweeper, plus a slow curveball that messes with timing. By season’s end, he took things to another level. His four-seamer averaged 95.7 mph and hit 98.5, while his sinker jumped to 95.3 mph. The cutter climbed into the low 90s, and his changeup settled at 86 mph—creating ideal separation from his fastball. His sweeper and curveball added depth, giving him six legitimate pitches.   

That’s the kind of arsenal that can win games. Morris isn’t just throwing hard. He continues to learn more and more about pitching, refining his grips and sequencing. With health and continued work with coaches, Morris has the stuff to be a starter and make an impact in Minnesota sooner rather than later. That makes him an obvious add. 

Left-Handed Pitcher: Kendry Rojas 
Twins Daily #8-Ranked Prospect 

Twins fans weren’t thrilled when the front office traded hometown flamethrower Louis Varland, but the return offers plenty to like, Alan Roden and especially left-hander Kendry Rojas. The Cuban-born southpaw has electric stuff and, despite injuries slowing his rise, he’s just scratching the surface of his potential.

Rojas missed early 2025 with an abdominal strain but quickly climbed the Blue Jays’ system once healthy, striking out 30 batters in 18 ⅔ innings at Double-A before making one Triple-A stint for Buffalo. After joining the Twins, his numbers in St. Paul weren’t pretty; control issues led to 23 walks in 27 1/3 innings, but the raw tools were undeniable. His four-seam fastball now sits 92–96 mph and touched 97 in his final start, a jump from the low-90s just two years ago. He pairs it with a lively sinker at a similar velocity, a sharp slider (84–90 mph), and a changeup in the upper-80s that could become more effective with added velocity separation. His slider flashes plus potential, and his ability to generate movement makes him a nightmare for hitters when he’s in the zone. 

At just 23, Rojas brings rare upside for a lefty with this kind of velocity and pitch mix. He’s still learning, but if he finds consistent command, he could debut soon, and if the Twins ever shift him to the bullpen, his stuff could play up even more. Simply put: there aren’t many arms like this in the system. Rojas is a name to watch.

Left-Handed Outfielder/First Base Hendry Mendez 
Ranks just outside Twins Daily’s Top 20 Prospect Rankings 

Mendez’s journey from a 17-year-old international signing from the Dominican Republic to a promising Twins prospect that needs to be added to the 40-man roster has been a bit circuitous. The Brewers inked him for $800,000 in January 2021, and he quickly climbed from the Dominican Summer League to the Arizona Complex League that year. In 2022, at just 18, he impressed in Low-A Carolina with a disciplined approach, 62 walks against 70 strikeouts. Injuries slowed him in 2023, but a trade to the Phillies sparked a resurgence. He hit .284 with a nearly one-to-one walk-to-strikeout ratio and showed flashes of gap power.

In 2025, Mendez broke out. Starting in Double-A Reading, he posted an .808 OPS before being dealt to Minnesota for Harrison Bader. With Wichita, he elevated his game, slashing .324/.461/.450 and continuing his elite plate discipline (27 BB, 21 K). 

At 6’3”, 200 pounds, he is putting in some time at first base before games, a position the Twins have struggled to fill long-term. His revamped swing produced 11 homers this season, matching his total from the previous three years combined. Just 22 years old, Mendez looks like a lock for the 40-man roster. He’s not expected to be the answer in 2026, but his size, athleticism, and improving power make him a name to watch.

Right-Handed Pitcher: CJ Culpepper
Twins Daily’s #19-Ranked Prospect 

C.J. Culpepper has quietly become one of the Twins’ most intriguing pitching prospects. Drafted in the 13th round in 2022 out of Cal Baptist, the 6’3” right-hander has shown steady growth despite injuries that slowed him in 2024. His 2025 season was delayed by injury, and his workload was limited throughout the year. However, he posted a 2.43 ERA over 59 innings at Double-A Wichita, striking out 53 while holding opponents to a .223 average. 

What makes Culpepper stand out is his deep arsenal of pitches. Early in his career, catchers joked that they needed more than two hands to give him signs. He throws at least five pitches—a lively four-seam fastball that sits 94–96 mph and touches 97, a two-seam sinker which can generate ground balls, plus a slider, cutter, curveball, and changeup. Ten years ago, Culpepper would have been deemed a flamethrower. Now his fastball velocity is described as about average. His slider and cutter have the makings of above-average pitches, potentially. He’s also shown improved command, pounding the zone and posting a near 10 K/9 rate in 2024. 

Why add him to the 40-man roster now? With his combination of velocity, pitch mix, and recent success, Culpepper would undoubtedly be a target for other teams. His ability to sequence with his pitch mix and aggressive approach gives him a legitimate shot to stick as a starter or multi-inning reliever. We don't know what the offseason has in store for current Twins starting pitchers. The organization would not want to lose potential replacements if they can avoid it.

Coin Flips (3 Pitchers, 3 Hitters) 
It’s been a long time since the Minnesota Twins have added six players to their 40-man roster, but I think the six players above have a high likelihood of being lost if they are not protected. I also think they are another half-dozen players that I also think could be drafted. Below are (shorter!) summaries for each of them.  

Right-Handed Pitcher: John Klein
Minnesota native John Klein, 23, signed as an undrafted free agent in 2022 and quickly impressed. In 2025, he split time between Wichita and St. Paul, logging 106 1/3 innings with 128 strikeouts. Klein throws two fastballs at 93–96 mph, a fading mid-80s changeup, and a slow curveball in the upper 70s. At 6-5, 225 pounds, he has room to add velocity. Despite struggles at Triple-A, his size, strikeout ability, and legit stuff make him a strong Rule 5 candidate. 

Right-Handed Pitcher: Jose Olivares
Jose Olivares, 22, brings electric stuff and upside. In 2025, he posted a 4.38 ERA with 107 strikeouts and 57 walks over 90 1/3 innings at High-A Cedar Rapids. His fastball now touches 97 mph, paired with a sharp slider/sweeper, slow curveball, and mid-80s changeup. Command remains a concern, but his velocity and bat-missing ability make him a tempting bullpen stash for a team willing to gamble on raw talent.     

Right-Handed Pitcher: Cory Lewis
Cory Lewis, 25, was the Twins’ Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2023 and was very good in 2024, ending the season with five scoreless innings for St. Paul. 2025 was rough. At St. Paul, he went 4-6 with a 7.27 ERA over 73 innings, striking out 87 but walking 68. Known for his high-velocity knuckleball and full pitch-mix, Lewis still offers intrigue despite control issues in 2025. A team could take a chance on his unique arsenal and past success, hoping to unlock his upside.

Outfielder: Kala’i Rosario
Kala’i Rosario, 23, rebounded in 2025 after an injury-shortened 2024 season. The former fifth-round pick hit .256/.358/.487 (.844) at Wichita with 30 doubles, five triples, and 25 home runs in 130 games. He also stole 32 bases, far surpassing his previous high of seven, showing improved athleticism. Rosario’s calling card remains his power potential, but the added speed and mobility make him even more intriguing. His combination of pop and versatility could tempt a team looking for an impact bat with upside.   

Outfielder: Kyler Fedko
Kyler Fedko, 26, enjoyed a breakout 2025 season. After posting a .645 OPS in 77 games in 2024 in Wichita, he posted an .868 OPS in 88 games for the Wind Surge in 2025 with 15 doubles and 20 homers, then .829 OPS in St. Paul with 10 doubles and eight homers. Across 130 games, he totaled 25 doubles, 28 home runs, and 38 stolen bases. Fedko offers quality at-bats, gap and home run power, speed, and defensive versatility across all outfield spots plus first base. His well-rounded skill set makes him a sneaky Rule 5 candidate. 

Catcher/Outfielder: Ricardo Olivar
Ricardo Olivar, 24, is a versatile catcher/outfielder who still has some intriguing upside. In 93 games at Wichita, he hit .264/.356/.412 (.768) with 13 doubles, 13 homers, and 13 steals. While unlikely to be a full-time starting catcher, Olivar’s athleticism allows him to catch and play left field, giving him valuable flexibility. His balanced offensive profile and solid defense make him a potential backup catcher who could stick on a big-league roster. Teams seeking depth and versatility behind the plate may take a chance.   

The Twins have other Rule 5-eligible catchers as well. Patrick Winkel and Noah Cardenas are both potential backup catchers in MLB because of their prowess behind the plate. Andrew Cossetti and Nate Baez are potential MLB backup catchers because of their bats. 

Also Rule 5 eligible if not protected
Catchers: Patrick Winkel, Noah Cardenas, Andrew Cossetti, Nate Baez
Fielders: Danny De Andrade, Tanner Schobel, Aaron Sabato, Jake Rucker, Jose Salas, Ben Ross, Jorel Ortega, Andy Lugo, Rayne Doncon, Miguel Briceno
Pitchers
Left-Handed: Christian MacLeod, Jaylen Nowlin, Aaron Rozek, Cleiber Maldonado
Right-Handed: Miguelangel Boadas, John Stankiewicz, Darren Bowen, Mike Paredes, Alejandro Hidalgo, Trent Baker, Kyle Jones. 

View full article

[Nashvilletwin]

Seth, thanks for this really informative post.  Loved it. 

[jmlease1]

Rosario & Fedko are interesting; both show some promise, but have flaws and question marks. Rosario isn't much of a defender, has struggles to make consistent contact, and has never played above AA, so while he finished very well in 2025 and should be in AAA in 2026, he seems likely to get unprotected...I think no one will grab him, and even if they do, they'll have trouble holding him on the MLB roster for the season. Fedko is more chancy: he made it to AAA, hit well there, and can play CF in a pinch. I think they should protect him, and if I were a team like the Rockies or the ChiSox who are going nowhere I'd take a shot on him. The only real negative there is his age and how last season was the first time he didn't need to repeat a level to have some success there.

Olivar will pass through just fine, and after Cory Lewis' rotten 2025 I think he's pretty safe too. Olivares is too far away to stick; seems unlikely that anyone will carry him for a full season even in the bullpen.

I'm not as high on Klein as others. Maybe he's a relief option? I mean, there's still plenty of chaff to drop off the 40-man IMHO so it wouldn't be hard to make room, but I'm not losing sleep on Klein.

The 6 no brainers all make sense. Add Fedko to the list and be done.

[LewFordLives]

Thanks for the great write-up. I was wondering why certain players were still on the 40-man and this explains it.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I keep Klein in the given side. But fun to read through.

[rdehring]

Great read, Seth.  Thanks!  Have three comments, err, questions.  Also, an observation.

First, is really a question.  Where will the Twins be drafting in this year's Rule 5 draft?  Expect it will be very high, thus, they will likely want to leave at least one 40-man spot open to find that next Santana or Smith.

Second, with Gonzalez being a lock and EmRod/Jenkins either on the 40-man or a likely 2026 add, they don't have a need to add any more corner outfielders.  Thus, the likelihood of Fedko or Rosario being added goes down.  I like both of those guys, a lot.  Is it likely they could be part of a trade prior to the draft?  As unlikely as that is.

Finally, the Twins have a couple promising starters, Festa and Matthews, who have been around for a couple years.  Add the big group brought in last July and you have a large group of good starting prospects.  Yet, I see the three you call 'locks' having higher upside than any of the above.  At least Prielipp and Rojas do, in my opinion.  I guess my question is what do the Twins do with more starters than needed?  And how/when do they do it?

And that leads to an observation.  The Front Office needs to decide what their plan is for the off-season and how they plan to compete in 2026?  And that's assuming they do plan to compete.  For example, this more than needed group of young starters goes away should they decide to trade Ryan, and/or Lopez. 

Considering there are what you call six locks to be added, I don't see their decisions when adding those will tell us anything about their plans for the winter.  

[Edit. On this Veteran's Day, wanted to add a thank you to all of us who served America at some time in our lives.] 

[Jeff K]

24 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Rosario & Fedko are interesting; both show some promise, but have flaws and question marks. Rosario isn't much of a defender, has struggles to make consistent contact, and has never played above AA, so while he finished very well in 2025 and should be in AAA in 2026, he seems likely to get unprotected...I think no one will grab him, and even if they do, they'll have trouble holding him on the MLB roster for the season. Fedko is more chancy: he made it to AAA, hit well there, and can play CF in a pinch. I think they should protect him, and if I were a team like the Rockies or the ChiSox who are going nowhere I'd take a shot on him. The only real negative there is his age and how last season was the first time he didn't need to repeat a level to have some success there.

Olivar will pass through just fine, and after Cory Lewis' rotten 2025 I think he's pretty safe too. Olivares is too far away to stick; seems unlikely that anyone will carry him for a full season even in the bullpen.

I'm not as high on Klein as others. Maybe he's a relief option? I mean, there's still plenty of chaff to drop off the 40-man IMHO so it wouldn't be hard to make room, but I'm not losing sleep on Klein.

The 6 no brainers all make sense. Add Fedko to the list and be done.

My exact thoughts!  Fedko needs to be protected and the others mentioned don't appear to be threats to be selected.

[mikelink45]

I always wonder why teams like the White Sox, Pirates, Rockies don't just load up on Rule V.  The Sox found a star pitcher last year.  These players all have potential and those teams stink - the cost seems negligible in baseballs economic system.  

[Whitey333]

Wow what a nice well researched article.  Thanks for all the information.  We could call this article Hype and Hope

[Blyleven2011]

22 minutes ago, Jeff K said:

My exact thoughts!  Fedko needs to be protected and the others mentioned don't appear to be threats to be selected.

Twins will lose players in this years rule 5 draft , regarded as a strong field of prospects, teams are doing there diligence on our prospects ...

One thing I believe Seth forgot to mention in the rule 5  is if we lose a player we can add back to the list a player to be protected  unless that has changed ...

[tony&rodney]

The 6 players highlighted plus Fedko should  easily fit on the 40 roster because there are 4-7 players that can be dropped without concern. 

39 minutes ago, rdehring said:

The Front Office needs to decide what their plan is for the off-season and how they plan to compete in 2026?  And that's assuming they do plan to compete.  For example, this more than needed group of young starters goes away should they decide to trade Ryan, and/or Lopez. 

Considering there are what you call six locks to be added, I don't see their decisions when adding those will tell us anything about their plans for the winter.  

Yes. The front office needs to be active earlier in this offseason than they have the past two years. Whether via trades or whatever, something needs to give on the roster before 2025 closes. 

[bunsen82]

I am firmly of the opinion Fedko and Rosario could either get you some decent reliever help by themselves or a package.  I don't see a reason to leave value on the table available for someone to poach.  I still have 0 understanding why Gasper, Fitzgerald, Kiersey, Outman or Kreidler - (we don't need both) - remain on the roster.  Then we let a decent reliever in Lawyerson go.  For a bullpen that had holes, he was a solid plug of a spot in my opinion.  

We have 7 spots open currently for free agents or to add young players.  I had 8 as must adds in my opinion.   Gonzalez, Priellip, Morris, Rojas, Mendez, Culpepper, Rosario, Fedko.   

[jmlease1]

4 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The 6 players highlighted plus Fedko should  easily fit on the 40 roster because there are 4-7 players that can be dropped without concern. 

The 40-man is already down to 33, they don't even need to drop anyone else (though I'd say there's still several options to move on from with little to no pain hanging on)

[old nurse]

Shane Smith was an all star yet received only one down the ballot ROY vote.  Just a reminder that somebody had to be the All Star on a team. 

Batters below the AAA level may be drafted but rarely are kept.  Baddoo might have been the last one.  Useful, but not a loss to the system. 

The roster sits at 33. If the top 6 are kept that leaves little room to add relief pitchers. I don’t think they would go with that many RP who are not established.  One of Krieder or Fitzgerald would have to go. Adding Klein would mean someone like Adam’s is cut and they plan on using him in relief

.Fedko had one good year in the minors. If he or Rosario are protected it would be at the expense of Keirsey and McCusker. 

When the list of who gets announced there will be a lot of words said here in the oh no variety/ At the end of spring training there will either be trades or returns  I would guess they keep the first 6 mentioned and Klein. 

[DJL44]

52 minutes ago, rdehring said:

Second, with Gonzalez being a lock and EmRod/Jenkins either on the 40-man or a likely 2026 add, they don't have a need to add any more corner outfielders.  Thus, the likelihood of Fedko or Rosario being added goes down.  I like both of those guys, a lot.  Is it likely they could be part of a trade prior to the draft?  As unlikely as that is.

There are potentially way too many outfielders on the 40-man roster. Buxton, Larnach, Wallner, Martin, Roden, Outman, Keirsey, McCusker, Rodriguez, Gonzalez, Jenkins, Mendez, Rosario, Fedko plus Kreidler and Clemens who can play outfield. That's 14-16 outfielders on the 40-man. Jenkins won't be on the roster in the offseason but he's pretty certain to be on it sometime in 2026.

They need to pick their best 9 from that group. I think that's Buxton, Wallner, Martin, Roden, Rodriguez, Gonzalez, Jenkins, Mendez and Rosario.

[stringer bell]

Fedko and Rosario are both interesting cases. Rosario continues to creep up through the minors with some valleys but also some undeniably good hitting. Fedko showed and power/speed combo last year that is hard to ignore. I think one of them should be protected, I'm not sure which.

[old nurse]

16 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

I am firmly of the opinion Fedko and Rosario could either get you some decent reliever help by themselves or a package.  I don't see a reason to leave value on the table available for someone to poach.  I still have 0 understanding why Gasper, Fitzgerald, Kiersey, Outman or Kreidler - (we don't need both) - remain on the roster.  Then we let a decent reliever in Lawyerson go.  For a bullpen that had holes, he was a solid plug of a spot in my opinion.  

We have 7 spots open currently for free agents or to add young players.  I had 8 as must adds in my opinion.   Gonzalez, Priellip, Morris, Rojas, Mendez, Culpepper, Rosario, Fedko.   

Laweryson has a mid 90s FB, his secondary pitch are a cutter and a change. He doesn’t appear to be a command pitcher. He got by in his 7 innings by unfamiliarity. That only works for a short time 

[DJL44]

I don't think teams are going to be looking for Fedko in the Rule 5 draft. The upside has to be high enough to make it worth carrying a non-contributor on the roster for a whole season. There are several minor league free agents with stats as good as Fedko and they're a lot more convenient to acquire.

[Dman]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

Rosario & Fedko are interesting; both show some promise, but have flaws and question marks. Rosario isn't much of a defender, has struggles to make consistent contact, and has never played above AA, so while he finished very well in 2025 and should be in AAA in 2026, he seems likely to get unprotected...I think no one will grab him, and even if they do, they'll have trouble holding him on the MLB roster for the season. Fedko is more chancy: he made it to AAA, hit well there, and can play CF in a pinch. I think they should protect him, and if I were a team like the Rockies or the ChiSox who are going nowhere I'd take a shot on him. The only real negative there is his age and how last season was the first time he didn't need to repeat a level to have some success there.

Olivar will pass through just fine, and after Cory Lewis' rotten 2025 I think he's pretty safe too. Olivares is too far away to stick; seems unlikely that anyone will carry him for a full season even in the bullpen.

I'm not as high on Klein as others. Maybe he's a relief option? I mean, there's still plenty of chaff to drop off the 40-man IMHO so it wouldn't be hard to make room, but I'm not losing sleep on Klein.

The 6 no brainers all make sense. Add Fedko to the list and be done.

Yeah I agree with you.  Fedko has enough defensive versatility to play even center and good plate discipline so hopefully not lost at the plate at the MLB level if selected.  He showed he has power this year.  The only thing working against him is age to some extent.  Most rule V picks are younger players unless relief arms.

Rosario might be tempting but with little defensive versatility and while not horrible in the K department certainly would be worse at the MLB level and never having played beyond AA he seems like a pretty risky add for another team.

I don't see Klein as a starter, but he could be one.  He looks like he is on the Varland track to me though.  I think he could have big fastball out of the pen.  Still they could take their chances and leave him out there.  It just seems given they brought in that arm from Philly with worse control problems it would seem a bit odd not to add Klein IMO.  Still he is one the fence.

I kind of thought Cardenas might get added based on defense and decent bat skills but I guess the bat is too light. At any rate should be and interesting Rule V.

[saviking]

For a team thst hasn't done well, the Twins have a lot of quality rules 5 pickups. I wouldn't be surprised if we lost 2 players. 

[IndianaTwin]

With only 13 position players on the 26-man and two of them being catchers, it's really hard for a team to roster a Rule 5 position player for the whole year.

The decision on a guy like Rosario is essentially choosing between a 100 percent chance of keeping Rosario and a 50 percent chance of losing (someone like) McCusker when he's dropped vs. a 100 percent chance of keeping McCusker and a 10 percent chance of losing Rosario in the Rule 5. (Percentages made up to illustrate the point.)

[Jacksson]

Add  them all and a few more.  Plenty of room.

Even room to add a Rule 5 Choice or Two

Trade, Non Tender, Release: Sands, Topa, Larnach, Wallner.

DFA: Fitzgerald, Gasper, Julien, Keirsey, Kreidler, McCusker, Outman.

That's ELEVEN spots opened on the 40 Man roster. 

Only 33 there now so that takes the count down to 22.

[bunsen82]

49 minutes ago, old nurse said:

Laweryson has a mid 90s FB, his secondary pitch are a cutter and a change. He doesn’t appear to be a command pitcher. He got by in his 7 innings by unfamiliarity. That only works for a short time 

You are calling it small sample size.  You are also not allowing for any further improvement in his stuff.  He was solid at AAA and solid in a small sample size.  If we can do significantly better than him in the bullpen great.  As of now my guess is we will have 1-2 players of worse quality than him in the bullpen this year - or more.  

[LA Vikes Fan]

I see at least 7 guys we want to keep. but it should be relatively easy and leave spots to spare. First, you have to focus on pitching and catching. It's much easier to keep a pitcher stashed in the bullpen pitching low leverage (like we did with Santana) and a backup catcher than it is to keep a position player on the roster all year long. Second, you have to think that the following players will get non-tendered or DFA'd - Fitzgerald, Gasper, Keirsey, Kreidler, and McCusker. All may get a MiLB contract shot with the Twins or simply move on.  Julien, Outman and Larnach run the risk of a non-tender as well, and all 3 of them are change of scenery trade candidates. I expect the Twins to have at least 11-14 open 40 man spots by the time they need to make Rule 5 decisions. 

I think they will leave 2-3 spots open for RP FA acquisitions and a backup Catcher signing, leaving 9-11 spots to add guys and protect them from Rule 5 poaching. Given that you start with pitchers and catchers, and next are guys that are ready for big league debuts, I would keep them in the following order - Prileipp, Rojas, Morris, CJ Culpepper, Gonzalez, Mendez, Olivares followed by 2 or 3 of Klein, Olivar, Fedko, Rosario, Cardenas and Lewis. Whomever of those 6 we don't protect are the ones at risk.  I think Rosario and Cardenas squeak though either without being selected or coming back after ST so I would protect Klein, Olivares and maybe Fedko but only if you have plans to give Fedko and Klein a real MLB shot in 2026. 

Let's cut to the chase. We have a lot of flotsam and jetsam on the 40 man and a lot of good prospects. Let's be sure to keep the prospects and if it costs us guys like Julien, Gasper, Keirsey, Kreidler and McCusker, so be it. 

[Danchat]

I think they protect the obvious 6 and I'd lean towards protecting Klein given the lack of options in the bullpen. For the deep sleepers, I nominate MacLeod as the most likely one to be protected out of that group.

Most of the other options are too far away and unlikely to be claimed... and I dunno on Fedko, I don't think he's the type of guy teams use R5 picks on. Not that they don't draft OFs, but his minor league pedigree is overrated. I'm all for giving him a chance, but I think he clears the draft.

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, Jacksson said:

Add  them all and a few more.  Plenty of room.

Even room to add a Rule 5 Choice or Two

Trade, Non Tender, Release: Sands, Topa, Larnach, Wallner.

DFA: Fitzgerald, Gasper, Julien, Keirsey, Kreidler, McCusker, Outman.

That's ELEVEN spots opened on the 40 Man roster. 

Only 33 there now so that takes the count down to 22.

Non-tendering or releasing Sands, Topa, or Wallner is organizational malpractice and a fireable offense. (suggesting it because you hope the front office is that stupid and will get itself fired because you hate them and want them gone is also silly)

But yes: there's plenty of room still to move: Gasper, Julien, Outman, Kiersey, & McCusker (I doubt they're exposing a guy they just claimed in Kriedler) can be moved off with little loss or risk.

I expect to see these types of guys moved off if/when trades and signings happen as they have marginally more value to the needy Twins.

Maybe they'll take a pitcher they think could be a bullpen choice in the Rule 5, but seems unlikely: they need proven help not more young talent to sort through that they can't option.

[Dman]

19 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Maybe they'll take a pitcher they think could be a bullpen choice in the Rule 5, but seems unlikely: they need proven help not more young talent to sort through that they can't option.

I don't see them adding a Rule V arm this year either.  They have a ton of young talent at the AAA\breaking into the majors level as it is and they need some space for some vet arms or bats.  There's just so much young talent I can't see them going the Rule V route.  

 

[PatPfund]

The OP is a s a great summary, but it and some of the follow up talk misses almost all of the context. Rule 5 strictures are VERY hard to meet; the player has to be on the 26-man active roster all season, or offered directly back to the team. Given modern roster usage (shorter starts and lots of RPs) the position player bench is so short that VERY FEW position players are even drafted, even by bad teams.

How few? In the past three Rule 5 (MLB portion) drafts combined there have been a grand total of 40 picks (15 in '22, 10 in '23, 15 in '24). Only 8 of those are position players; 32 pitchers. And drafted players aren't "lost", they simply have MLB tryouts with another team, and many get returned (remember Phillies' Minor League Pitcher of the Year 2024 Eiberson Castellano?; drafted in Rule 5 by the Twins, and back to the Phillies by the start of the season).

Also consider the Twins aren't swimming in depth at the MLB level, and there are lots of better teams with as deep or deeper farm systems, meaning dozens of other systems to shop (and again, probably 10-15 picks total). And finally adding them to the 40-man means waiving them later if the Twins need their spot, and you are far more likely to lose them permanently that way (like Lawyerson).

Given that context, I'd consider the first 4 here as locks, because I could see them on the MLB club next year. I could see Mendez and Culpepper as strong possibilities, because they might help next year. The rest I wouldn't worry about. Maybe somebody grabs one or two (though probably not), but we likely get them back anyway; maybe better than before with the new perspective. (A clue on Mendez is that he wouldn't be an answer for next season at a position the Twins are dying for help; if he can't stick here, other teams might be thinking the same thing.)

[Dman]

1 hour ago, Danchat said:

I think they protect the obvious 6 and I'd lean towards protecting Klein given the lack of options in the bullpen. For the deep sleepers, I nominate MacLeod as the most likely one to be protected out of that group.

Most of the other options are too far away and unlikely to be claimed... and I dunno on Fedko, I don't think he's the type of guy teams use R5 picks on. Not that they don't draft OFs, but his minor league pedigree is overrated. I'm all for giving him a chance, but I think he clears the draft.

I am pretty high on MacLeod as well.  The only reason he is a non-add for me is he seems more of a crafty lefty and I am not sure how that will translate.  Still he could be a pretty good bullpen arm.  Can he transition right away I guess is the question.

Maybe I am over rating Klein but he seems like he has a bigger fastball and I think that plays better out of the pen.  December is coming and then we'll know how the Twins feel about the plethora of arms they have on the bubble.

[Dman]

5 minutes ago, PatPfund said:

The OP is a s a great summary, but it and some of the follow up talk misses almost all of the context. Rule 5 strictures are VERY hard to meet; the player has to be on the 26-man active roster all season, or offered directly back to the team. Given modern roster usage (shorter starts and lots of RPs) the position player bench is so short that VERY FEW position players are even drafted, even by bad teams.

How few? In the past three Rule 5 (MLB portion) drafts combined there have been a grand total of 40 picks (15 in '22, 10 in '23, 15 in '24). Only 8 of those are position players; 32 pitchers. And drafted players aren't "lost", they simply have MLB tryouts with another team, and many get returned (remember Phillies' Minor League Pitcher of the Year 2024 Eiberson Castellano?; drafted in Rule 5 by the Twins, and back to the Phillies by the start of the season).

Also consider the Twins aren't swimming in depth at the MLB level, and there are lots of better teams with as deep or deeper farm systems, meaning dozens of other systems to shop (and again, probably 10-15 picks total). And finally adding them to the 40-man means waiving them later if the Twins need their spot, and you are far more likely to lose them permanently that way (like Lawyerson).

Given that context, I'd consider the first 4 here as locks, because I could see them on the MLB club next year. I could see Mendez and Culpepper as strong possibilities, because they might help next year. The rest I wouldn't worry about. Maybe somebody grabs one or two (though probably not), but we likely get them back anyway; maybe better than before with the new perspective. (A clue on Mendez is that he wouldn't be an answer for next season at a position the Twins are dying for help; if he can't stick here, other teams might be thinking the same thing.)

Yeah I always have a tendency to over estimate who will be added.  Still this is the most players I have seen in quite a while with a case to be added.