Short-Term Pain: Joe Pohlad Says It All With Three Dastardly Words

[Ricky Vaughn]

8 minutes ago, Nshore said:

Somebody should get the architects of the World Series years to talk to Joe Pohlad about the secret - never duplicated - formula.   Maybe Tom Kelly, Andy MacPhail and Jim Rantz can talk some sense into him.

Andy McPhail left because he didn't believe small and mid market teams could compete anymore.

[jorgenswest]

I feel the pain. I don’t hear the commitment that they promised. There was a road in the previous decade to trade off assets and get top flight prospects. That road has been closed. They aren’t going to turn things around by trading assets. The FV50 or FV40s assets they acquire will take too long to develop. If after a few years of up and down they do produce it will be time to trade them.

My expectations are that they will trade Ryan for a very disappointing return. Sure they will get a few top 100 guys but not a top flight prospect. I bristle every time I hear the phrase top 100 as if it is a likelihood of success. Take a look at the #50 prospect in the MLB pipeline from 2011 to 2020. There is one player with a significant career in Wilson Contreras. The next best in Jedd Gyorko who had 2.6 WAR over three years for the Padres before being moved. He was their Julien with a good rookie season followed by two replacement level seasons. Nick Gordon ranks third of the 10. If you trade for the number 50 prospect you are lucky to get a Nick Gordon.

If they think they can trade their way out of this and turn it around they better be one of the best in baseball in identifying the elite amidst a bunch of top 100 players that will mostly be replacement level.

 

[Whitey333]

Yes the Pohlads have ruined this franchise.  60 years of closely following this team finally have convinced me they need to sell.  I actually think the payroll dollars handed down by ownership have been fine.  I think the payroll budget has been totally messed up by Falvey.  It's astonishing to me that ownership keeps him when he has totally messed up thus team.  Leaving him in charge of hiring the next manager is proof that the Pohlads have no clue.  

[nicksaviking]

11 minutes ago, Nshore said:

Somebody should get the architects of the World Series years to talk to Joe Pohlad about the secret - never duplicated - formula.   Maybe Tom Kelly, Andy MacPhail and Jim Rantz can talk some sense into him.

I'm sure every owner in the game would be happy to revert back to the collusion era where payrolls were under 30M. 

The game was different back then. Their magic formula was signing the best free agent pitcher and extend their best player to a record contract. It wasn't special and secret, it was league wide competitive balance.

[ToddlerHarmon]

21 minutes ago, Nshore said:

Somebody should get the architects of the World Series years to talk to Joe Pohlad about the secret - never duplicated - formula.   Maybe Tom Kelly, Andy MacPhail and Jim Rantz can talk some sense into him.

I get the feeling they have all "lost" his number

[GNess]

In 2023 the Twins defeated Toronto in the wildcard round. The Twins were considered by many to be the better team. The Twins only two seasons later, are now one of the worst teams in MLB while Toronto is one of the top seeds in the playoffs.

The Twins squandered their opportunity to build on a pretty solid base. They did so it seems almost by intent. All the talk of strategic plans for emerging as a contender in 2028 or some predetermined season in the future are a crock to try to paper over their salary dump and sustained inability to create a winning franchise.. The Twins ownership isn't truly interested in winning.

As further evidence: My goodness how about Falvey's comment that he "hopes" they can keep Lopez and Ryan. How does the main decision-maker not know what the status is for their two best pitchers who are under contract?

What a total mess.

[jmlease1]

9 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I'm sure every owner in the game would be happy to revert back to the collusion era where payrolls were under 30M. 

The game was different back then. Their magic formula was signing the best free agent pitcher and extend their best player to a record contract. It wasn't special and secret, it was league wide competitive balance.

The other part of the formula (which still works today, really) is having several of your regulars all have career/healthy seasons at the same time, while your stars have healthy & typical years. But that's luck more than a plan.

('87: Gagne, Straker, Berenguer all have career-type seasons and Brunansky & Blyleven re-finds their form for one last season, while Viola, Puckett, and Hrbek carry their share of the load as top guys)

('91: Tapani, Pagliarulo, Leius, Davis, Willis and Erickson all have career-type seasons with Morris coming in and rookie Knoblauch coming in with Aguilera, Mack, Puckett, Hrbek, and Gagne doing what's expected)

You could see it a little with the Twins in 2023, when Julien, Miranda, and Wallner were all good at the same time, or the Bomba Squad (career seasons from Garver, Kepler, Sano, Odorizzi)

When you don't have an extra $50-100M to spend on proven veterans to fill out your squad, you're hoping that several of your good but not great players get hot and stay healthy at the same time. Part of what really makes an all-star player a star is being able to do it year in and year out.

[AKTwinsFan]

We should start scouting for the #1-#3 pick in next years draft class. We'll have good picks throughout the draft due to the poor season we had. With all the good young talent in our system there is good things to look forward to.

[Doctor Gast]

Falvey must have written that statement for Joe because it's full of BS. I got news for you. It has been determined that taking in BS is bad for your health. We've been suffering for a long time. When Falvey had a serious postseason team fall into his lap, he has squandered that opportunity by failing to maintain the core, build on that core by shrewd player evaluations, development & trades. Now that the league has figured Falvey out; they know they can wait him out; they spin fancy stats that he falls for with bad salary dumps. Some bad FAs. If Falvey can't do anything with a proven core how can we believe that he can do anything with an unproven one? Depending a lot on development that they has failed since '19. Only when he is gone & get someone in that knows what he's doing can we start hope for some relief. 

[mickster]

2 hours ago, David Maro said:

Fans won't pay major league prices for a minor league team. As of now no one knows what this team will look like 3 months from now. They have a number of players on the roster who either will want to leave or will be traded. With the team in flux who would want to come in as manager. This is what happens when you have people in charge who run a business into the ground. It's time to sell and give new ownership the opportunity to get this turned around.

I would tend to agree with you, however there is constant noise on TD to bring youngsters up so I think many will to see those they think are saviors play in Target vs CHS...........disappointed they will be but are asking for it.

[RpR]

6 minutes ago, mickster said:

I would tend to agree with you, however there is constant noise on TD to bring youngsters up so I think many will to see those they think are saviors play in Target vs CHS...........disappointed they will be but are asking for it.

Many on TD,  TD is not the average fan in the stands.  People will not flock to the stadium to watch rookies show they needed more time in AAA.

[Sjoski]

3 hours ago, In My La Z boy said:

Going on 34 years of short term pain since 1991 

Seattle has never even been to the WS much less won...48 years! Imagine 14 more years and counting. 

Colorado and SD have never won, but at least made an appearance.  

[amjgt]

My question back to him would be:

"It doesn't appear that you, the owners, were willing to experience any short term pain after the 2023 season. Why would you expect fans to be willing to experience it, if you weren't? And do you regret deciding not to experience a little short term pain after 2023?

[Mike Sixel]

5 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

The Strib article is behind paywall. Did the reporter doing the interview really not clarify with Joe if he meant the short term pain was last year's sell off, or if the short term pain was upcoming this off season?

Because the 'try something different' and 'you got to own it' lines that follow sound like a reference to this past summer's sell off, implying that roster wasn't working and they needed to start over.

This article makes it sound the other way around, and the worst is yet to come, which could be the case, but is there more dialogue in the Strib article to confirm that's what Joe was referring to?

Reporter follow up? Hold a billionaire's feet to the fire? Where have you been all your life? Not Minnesota.

[mickster]

1 hour ago, RpR said:

Many on TD,  TD is not the average fan in the stands.  People will not flock to the stadium to watch rookies show they needed more time in AAA.

I won't, that is for sure.............I stand by if we would have traded prospects earlier, we would have been a solid contender the past few years.   Brooks Lee as a top prospect would have brought back more value as a trade piece a couple of years ago then he does as a player now.   Would love to keep our SP in tact, and use some of our OF prospects to reload

[twinsfansd]

Enough of the Twins bashing. I am suck and tired of reading this stuff day after day. I am about done with this site. Can't we just get over it and move on.

Let's start putting out some positive stories about what they have going forward. Who and what can be counted on to build on next year.

[old nurse]

4 hours ago, David Maro said:

Fans won't pay major league prices for a minor league team. As of now no one knows what this team will look like 3 months from now. They have a number of players on the roster who either will want to leave or will be traded. With the team in flux who would want to come in as manager. This is what happens when you have people in charge who run a business into the ground. It's time to sell and give new ownership the opportunity to get this turned around.

If I person wants to manage, has faith in their abilities to get the most out of position players it is not a bad job. The ceilings on man of the players is in the 3-4 WAR range. Lewis, Walner and even Julian have flashed that potential. Lee was a top 20 prospect.then there is Keaschall and the other ranked prospects. It is not an easy job, but moderate success will get that person jobs. It is just a matter of believing the rankings and your abilities. There are only 30 jobs.  Craig Council in Milwaukee is an example of that.  

[old nurse]

3 minutes ago, twinsfansd said:

Enough of the Twins bashing. I am suck and tired of reading this stuff day after day. I am about done with this site. Can't we just get over it and move on.

Let's start putting out some positive stories about what they have going forward. Who and what can be counted on to build on next year.

Easier to write negative articles than it is to explain why somebody may be good. Easier to write conjecture than dig for the facts. Looking for the nuance takes thinking and time. There isn’t the money in fan sites to take that sort of time

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, mickster said:

Would love to keep our SP in tact, and use some of our OF prospects to reload

Ok. What ideas do you have in mind? 

Just for refresher, the Twins needs: C, 1B, SS, LF, RF, and several (4) bullpen pitchers to start. I'm fine with whatever moves makes the team much better to watch.

[CoachDW]

Joe Pohlad: "At some point you gotta look at yourself and be like, ‘You know what? We’ve gotta try something different.'"

So, why is Derek Falvey still in charge then? You can change the manager, but chances are he will do the same thing Rocco did, which apparently was to employ in-game strategy that Derek Falvey wanted, using the players that Derek Falvey provided. 

Hey Joe, you wanna try something different? Get rid of the architect of this mess, Derek Falvey! 

[purplesoldier4u]

8 hours ago, LewFordLives said:

I get it. The Twins are not a major market and can't keep spending like they have the last few years. Therefore, they need to make smarter personnel and development decisions. Do I believe Falvey is the right person to be making those decisions?; NO!

I think that their "expanded media market" is on par with mid-major markets. Again, look at San Diego's payroll, their in a smaller media market than the Twins, but the spend and rewarded for it. With Seattle transitioning to a Twins-like media deal, let's see how they deal with their spending.

I wonder how much input DStP has? 

[mluebker]

8 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Did the reporter doing the interview really not clarify with Joe if he meant the short term pain was last year's sell off, or if the short term pain was upcoming this off season?

Clearly Joe has had some media training. He seems skilled at giving the answers to the questions he wanted to be asked, instead of to the questions he was asked or addressing what his theoretical audience actually wants to know. It's called "spinning'," and apparently whoever trained him forgot to mention how that technique rarely works with sports fans, at least not for 34 consecutive years.

[Linus]

I’m not much of a conspiracy theorist but here goes. The Twins found the market for their club tepid at best. Perhaps in order to seal the deal with the minority partners they promised to tank the payroll and suck $50 million out of the Twins in 2026 and whatever they could get in 2027 giving the investors a nice return right out of the gate. Because of how bad the club was they could claim it was a baseball move. It also makes sense that nobody that is serious about competing in the near future blows up their entire pen. Falveys response about Ryan and López seems to indicate they will be gone as well freeing up all kinds of cash for the owners. Might as well trade Jeffers and have mercy on Buxton. 

[mikelink45]

5 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I want to push back here fully blaming ownership when comparing the Twins to the Brewers and Guardians.  Their payrolls were lower than ours suggesting that it is not ownership that is the issue, rather what the FO (Falvey in particular) did with that payroll.  IMO both parties are to blame, but Falvey is more at blame here than ownership.

Are you sure?

[Blyleven2011]

9 hours ago, The Great Hambino said:

How can someone with a marketing background have such a hard time delivering a coherent message to his customers?  To lack even a basic understanding of what they think and what they want?

The comments about 2023's excitement coming from a team with baseball's 11th-best record should illustrate that the bar really isn't that high.  It doesn't take that much to make us happy.   This shouldn't be that difficult. 

He finished last in his class ...

[TheLeviathan]

This ownership group has proven to have cornered the market on their hit rate for "feet in mouths"

But I'll repeat what I've said elsewhere.  If any of these silver spoon schmos want us to back off and accept their line of reasoning about how impoverished and indebted they are as owners they have a very simple fix:

Release your finances to the public.  

[KBJ1]

First of all, Baseball has to adopt total rw wnue sharing and salary caps like the NFL or the league won't survive.

You cannot have Billion dollar payrolls competing with 100M payrolls. It's absurd!

2nd, backdated contracts like Ohtani's need to be declared null & void - no dice on such crap. Everyone forgets that the Didgers declared bankruptcy not that long ago. You can't let teams just wash absurd contracts through bankruptcies.

Revenue, contracts, costs need to be tightly matched to all teams. No player needs 100M /yr.

Like a fantasy draft, you get 200M. Build your team. Some hometown player contracts that gomover budget (like the NBA) can be worked in for some flexibility, but there has to be a set structure of some kind. This free for all with big market teams backdating contracts must end.

AND the Pohlads need to go first. Washing their property losses through the team is also ridiculous and has doomed this franchise to be contracted as no fans will show up next year for a AA team.

[tony&rodney]

58 minutes ago, KBJ1 said:

First of all, Baseball has to adopt total rw wnue sharing and salary caps like the NFL or the league won't survive.

You cannot have Billion dollar payrolls competing with 100M payrolls. It's absurd!

2nd, backdated contracts like Ohtani's need to be declared null & void - no dice on such crap. Everyone forgets that the Didgers declared bankruptcy not that long ago. You can't let teams just wash absurd contracts through bankruptcies.

Revenue, contracts, costs need to be tightly matched to all teams. No player needs 100M /yr.

Like a fantasy draft, you get 200M. Build your team. Some hometown player contracts that gomover budget (like the NBA) can be worked in for some flexibility, but there has to be a set structure of some kind. This free for all with big market teams backdating contracts must end.

AND the Pohlads need to go first. Washing their property losses through the team is also ridiculous and has doomed this franchise to be contracted as no fans will show up next year for a AA team.

I'm assuming you also will liquidate all assets of any individuals elsewhere in the country that exceed a figure, say your $100M per year.

I'm not opposed to limits on wealth, whether it is property, stocks, or other means. Might be best to keep it reasonable, say maximum of $10 million total.

It also might be difficult to accomplish because humans don't share.

[AceWrigley]

6 hours ago, twinsfansd said:

Enough of the Twins bashing. I am suck and tired of reading this stuff day after day. I am about done with this site. Can't we just get over it and move on.

Let's start putting out some positive stories about what they have going forward. Who and what can be counted on to build on next year.

Well, we do have a major league scout.

[old nurse]

11 hours ago, Nshore said:

Somebody should get the architects of the World Series years to talk to Joe Pohlad about the secret - never duplicated - formula.   Maybe Tom Kelly, Andy MacPhail and Jim Rantz can talk some sense into him.

McPhail became McFail after leaving the Twins. Rantz;s farm system quit producing talent long before he left, Kelly has been advisor to the Twins since retiring from managing