Flawed Core, Flawed Plan: The Twins Putting New Manager in No-Win Situation

[Cody Christie]

The Minnesota Twins ended the 2025 season with 92 losses and no postseason appearance for the second consecutive year. For all the chatter about “retooling on the fly,” it looks more like the team has dug itself into a deeper hole. Now, with a new manager coming in for 2026, the front office may be setting him up to fail before the season even starts.

Buxton and Ryan Were Great, and It Didn’t Matter
Byron Buxton’s season was about as perfect as any Twins fan could dream of. He stayed healthy, dominated at the plate, and played center field with his usual highlight-reel flair. Joe Ryan looked like one of the best pitchers in the American League until fatigue caught up with him late in the year.

Those two performances should have been the backbone of a playoff team. Instead, the Twins collapsed. That’s the harshest evidence that this core isn’t good enough. Even if Buxton and Ryan repeat those seasons (a big “if”), they can’t drag this roster to contention on their own. Regression is more likely, and that means the team’s secondary pieces must step up. The problem? The track record suggests they won’t.

Trade Deadline Priorities: Floor Over Ceiling
The Twins’ front office made clear choices at the deadline: they wanted players who could impact the roster in the short term. Mick Abel, Taj Bradley, Kendry Rojas, Alan Roden, and James Outman all fit that mold.

• Abel’s stuff is real, but he’s still working through command issues.
• Bradley has front-line flashes but comes with plenty of volatility.
• Rojas is young and intriguing, but not a sure thing.
• Roden’s injured thumb prevented him from making an impact.
• Outman looks more like a fourth outfielder than an everyday solution.

Could the Twins have traded for higher-upside prospects further away from the majors? Sure. But they didn’t. Instead, they’ve built a roster that looks like it could hang around .500 if everything goes right, which is rarely the case.

Banking on Bounce Backs and Breakouts
Beyond the deadline additions, the Twins are counting on a list of names that comes with more questions than answers.

• Matt Wallner needs to rediscover his power stroke after a disappointing season.
• Royce Lewis flashed excitement, but hasn’t found offensive consistency.
• Austin Martin thrived in a half-season audition, but can he replicate those results for 162?
• Brooks Lee owns the shortstop job but must prove he can hit enough to keep it.
• Luke Keaschall showed promise when healthy, but his durability remains a concern.

The front office will also dangle hope in the form of Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and Gabriel Gonzalez. All three ended 2025 at Triple-A and are expected to debut in 2026. While they bring excitement, it’s unreasonable to assume they’ll carry the team as rookies. If the Twins are already leaning on prospects to save the season, that’s a major red flag.

That’s a lot of “ifs” in one infield and outfield mix. And the danger with building around “ifs” is that they rarely all hit at once. Maybe Wallner rediscovers his power stroke, but what if Lewis’s offensive inconsistency lingers? Maybe Lee steadies himself at shortstop, but what if Martin’s strong finish turns out to be just a hot streak?

The Twins don’t need one or two of these bets to pay off, because they need almost all of them to click just to be respectable. It’s the exact opposite of how sustainable contenders are built. Winning teams insulate themselves with depth and proven production so that if a player backslides, the roster doesn’t collapse. Right now, Minnesota’s roster construction feels like a house of cards, waiting for the first gust of wind to send it tumbling.

The Bigger Picture: A No-Win Situation
The Twins’ brass will hand their new manager a roster that has the potential to look competitive on paper but is riddled with volatility. If things go sideways early, fans will blame the skipper, not the flawed roster construction. If everything clicks, the Twins might hang around in the Wild Card race, but it’s hardly the kind of setup that screams long-term stability.

It feels like the front office is trying to buy time while hoping a few lottery tickets cash in. That leaves the new manager stuck in the middle: judged on wins and losses while managing a team built more on wishful thinking than certainty. And that’s why, unless something changes dramatically this winter, the Twins aren’t setting up their new manager to succeed. They’re setting him up to fail.

Are the Twins putting their new manager in a no-win situation? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

 

 

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[nicksaviking]

If you're someone like me, and suspect that the blah prospect development can at least be partially blamed on the manager and coaching staff, than you'd also have to believe that it's possible a new manager and coaching staff may be capable of unlocking more potential than the current players have demonstrated.

But yeah, it's still not an enviable position. It's almost an entire roster of post-hype prospects, which I'd guess don't historically have a high rate of turning it around.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Short answer:  Yes.  However, the job probably comes with tempered expectations for success.  If I were signing up for the job, that is certainly something I would stress with my new employers.  Unfortunately, for the new manager's resume, his career will start with a lot of ugly even with that grace from the front office. 

With Buxton, Ryan, and Lopez still on the team, they won't likely be 100 loss terrible, but if those guys are traded it could be a record setting bout of futility.  An ridiculous amount needs to go right for them to even sniff .500 ball, and that's not the playoffs or truly competing.  If they keep those guys and add something meaningful (plus a whole bullpen) they could potentially touch .500.  

[Rhyno006]

Quote

Are Twins Putting New Manager in No-Win Situation?

Abso-freaking-lutely.

[tony&rodney]

When you trade 40% of your roster, the offseason is the time to complete the rebuild. 2026 will be difficult in terms of win-loss record, no matter if the team go forward with the current group or completes 4-7 trades to improve the talent in the organization. The former will be a losing team that is uncomfortable to watch resulting in calls for change, while the latter will be a losing team that will provide glimpses of hope for 2027 and later. The former is a no win situation. Why do we keep expecting different results with the same players? When Buxton leaves there will be no players left from the old regime to save the team. A new group will need to step forward.

 

[LastOnePicked]

It's not a no-win situation. It's more like a 60-win situation.

Hey, there are only 30 of these positions available. If you're a potential candidate trying to break into - or break back into - MLB coaching, you have to start somewhere.

If any manager can just increase the quality of approach and play, that should be considered a huge win. Re-establish a winning culture through a few tough seasons and the bigger Ws won't be too far behind.

[Nshore]

The Pohlads get a lot of criticism, but IMO most of this mess resides with Falvey.  You can field a team of motivated, fundamentally sound players regardless of the budget.  I went to too many games this year where the team looked like they were sedated. 

Now it's Falvey on the hot seat because there's nobody left to blame.  Whoever he hires better be good or he'll most likely be gone.

[Patzky]

9 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

It's not a no-win situation. It's more like a 60-win situation.

Hey, there are only 30 of these positions available. If you're a potential candidate trying to break into - or break back into - MLB coaching, you have to start somewhere.

If any manager can just increase the quality of approach and play, that should be considered a huge win. Re-establish a winning culture through a few tough seasons and the bigger Ws won't be too far behind.

Snitker, Bochy, Melvin, Hyde might not embrace such a setting.

Tingler, Gardenhire, Torii might 

[Patzky]

Watching NY load the bases with no outs last night instantly brought the Twins to mind. 

Lol and behold..

[DuluthRoots]

Don't have to read article. Answer is yes.

[nicksaviking]

Based on these responses, expectations are going to be so low, Rockies and White Sox kind of low, that it actually won't be terribly difficult for a new manager to exceed them.

[RpR]

Pee and moaning about the team next year, with out knowing squat about a new manager, or who will clear Spring Training is cutting off one's nose to spite one' face out of weird self-pity.

We will have at least a glimmer, of what will be, when they pick a new manager and Spring Training starts.

[South Dakota Tom]

This is only a no-win situation if someone (anyone?) keeps trumpeting the notion that the team is on the verge of contention.  They are not, barring multiple miracles (turnarounds from several players, an increase in payroll, retention of their best players).  Therefore, the only "win-win" situation is to jettison anyone who is not going to be on the team in 2027 that will compete and start to trot out the players who will/could be part of that - so yes, that means that Jenkins, Culpepper, Rodriguez, Gonzales are brought up to scuffle for 2026 and half of 2027; we get further reinforcements by following the same game plan they followed at the deadline - gone are our good players, in are players with upside who are top-100 or pre-arb big leaguers.  The only players on our roster who can get us those kinds of players (and are not on the 2027-2028 roster) are Lopez, Ryan, Buxton (maybe - I'd like to sell him on the notion that the team is going to grow and be great and they need him around to guide them), maybe Wallner.

I truly don't mind if this teams stinks in 2026 if they follow this blueprint because I see the logic in it.  I do mind if they keep Ryan and Lopez and try to patch holes with low-wattage veterans and follow the same path as the past two seasons.  There is nothing worse in MLB than mediocrity - even being terrible is better than mediocrity, so long as while you are terrible you are relying on young players with at least a hope of a future.

[LA Vikes Fan]

12 minutes ago, Patzky said:

Snitker, Bochy, Melvin, Hyde might not embrace such a setting.

Tingler, Gardenhire, Torii might 

Snitker, Bochy and Melvin are either too old for this stuff or too good to have to deal with it, really both. We aren't getting a guy like that. They want to win now a because their careers are or almost are over. 

Ideally, we want  a guy who has some experience, can work with younger players, has a longer term career timeline, and has a long term vision. Hyde is a good thought for that. So are Derek Shelton and Skip Schumaker. That's the kind of guy we should be looking for IMHO. 

[AceBee]

• We have tried hedging bets on platooning 1B and DH in bargain bin over the past few years and produced nothing 
• Apparently speed was always there to be used (or even not needed) and yet we steadfastly refused to even try stealing till meaningless September games
• We have no contact hitter who would grind quality at bats day in and day out reliably 
• Bunts and Sac flies are non-existent

Over the years of mediocrity, what that translates into is inability to capture key moments in the game to consistently win against MLB opposition. I think its a systemic problem from top down to bottom up !

Edited October 1, 2025 by AceBee
typo

[IndianaTwin]

One of the things about regression to the mean is that it works both ways. It may be difficult (though certainly impossible) for Ryan to repeat generating 4.5 bWAR, for example, but it seems quite reasonable to expect more than 2.1 for Lopez and more than 1.1 for Ober if they are still on the roster. Between the three, it seems reasonable to think they will total more than 7.7 if they are still around. 

I actually think it could be a pretty attractive job. Expectations are not going to be high, but the potential is there to greatly exceed expectations. It seems like there are some similarities to the offseasons following 2016 and 2018. 

[bunsen82]

"Could the Twins have traded for higher-upside prospects further away from the majors? Sure. But they didn’t. Instead, they’ve built a roster that looks like it could hang around .500 if everything goes right, which is rarely the case."

Are we just going to ignore #2 Tait, #5 Rojas, #14 Gallagher, #25  Mendez (who I could argue should be much higher- I would have top 10 area), #28 Jimenez (who I would have top 20).  Villoria is young but has a chance.   

The currently players were Abel and Bradley,  who are both a WIP,  but both flashed at the end of the season with what their upside is.   If they are #2 or #3 type starters this trade deadline was a win excluding all the prospects I mentioned earlier.  Outman was a lottery ticket and i am not sure he makes it past 40 man cuts.  Roden has a chance to be an every day OF but will see competition form the younger bats.  He is the 2026 version of Julien and Miranda.  He has 1 more year to show he can stick at the MLB level.  

Lets see why a coach would be willing to take a chance on the Twins - 

Strong starting pitching core - Ryan, Lopez, Ober, Bradley, Abel, SWR, Festa.   That is a top 10 starting rotation.   

Current players - Buxton, Keashall and Jeffers is a decent start.  You do start to run into question marks. Martin offensively began to show that his bat and speed can be an asset at the MLB level.  Lewis, Wallner and Lee have shown flashes but have just not been consistent enough.  Then you have several fringe or non mlb players Outman,  Gasper, Julien, Miranda, Kiersey.  

You have several young players coming up with good contact rates in the minors - Perada (likely backup catcher), Jenkins, Rodriguez, Culpepper and Gonzalez.   My concern with the team has been too many empty out.  Strikeouts in bunches, not moving players around the basepaths.  They appear to be more willing to steal and these players other than Rodriguez strikout at much lower rates than what we have had at the major league level.  The bomba mentality stayed for way too long in my opinion.  

Most coaches know that bullpens can be rebuilt.  Especially if there is a plan in place.  So yes a coach could see a team that has bright future in a few years.  There are players that could be all stars or better and you have a strong group of starting pitchers.  There is the potential to perform well in the short, mid and long term.  You would have to go in with wide eyes and realize ownership is not likely going help a ton with salaries.   

[Aggies7]

Who has high expectations for a twins turnaround?

[TheLeviathan]

I guess it depends a little on what this roster actually ends up looking like and what they decide to do with Lopez and Ryan.  

The end of the season at least offered hope that Bradley, Matthews, SWR, Abel could be guys to count on next year.  It seems like if you plan on keeping Ober and Ryan and deal Lopez that you might make a dent in helping your positional side.

The bullpen is a mess.  Festa, Prielipp, Funderburk, Sands, and pray seems like the situation.

OF is Wallner, Buxton, Martin.  Outman probably 4th OF.  

C  is Jeffers 

IF is Keaschall, Lee, Lewis.  Clemens as a utility guy.

So this team needs a catcher.  They need a first baseman.  If the team can move Lopez for a player at 1B and a bullpen arm they at least give the manager the bones of something that can develop.

Well....and then probably lose a lot of games in the 7th, 8th, or 9th.

[In My La Z boy]

We have a similar scenario here as we did in 1986.
It wouldn't surprise me if they give the job to Toby, or Dinkleman. I like both.

[LastOnePicked]

49 minutes ago, Patzky said:

Hyde might not embrace such a setting.

No, but Dr. Jeckyll might.

[jmlease1]

19 minutes ago, Aggies7 said:

Who has high expectations for a twins turnaround?

seriously. I think most people expect the Twins to struggle next season.

I will say it does seem to be split into three camps around here:

1. People who think the Pohlads will keep chopping payroll or at best staying flat, and think that Lopez and/or Ryan will be dealt in the offseason, removing even more players that can be counted on, making it unlikely for a turnaround even if some guys step forward
2. People who don't think most of the roster are good enough players to be in MLB and think that the team will never win with the current front office
3. Those who think a combination of both.

None are necessarily wrong, really.

A new manager will be expected to do something noticeably different from the last 2 seasons. Whether that's realistic without substantial roster turnover and/or investment...YMMV. But from a fan standpoint, it wouldn't necessarily have to be a fast turnaround to a winning season again to meet expectations. For one season, "fixing" one thing people complain about a lot might meet it. Who knows what ownership/front office expects.

[AKTwinsFan]

There's a reason why most of the players traded are playing better under their new managers because they are BETTER managers. Rocco didnt hold players accountable or keep any consistency in the lineups and batting orders. Pushing players and brining back players before theyre ready to play healthy has made more missed time from our stars. Players like Walley and Lewis could have been best served by sending them to the minors to work on their swings but instead kept them in the lineup to keep struggling, almost breaking Royce in the process. 

[jmlease1]

I'm definitely of the opinion that if the roster for 2026 has Outman as the 4th OF and Clemens as the starting 1B, there will not be a quick turnaround.

Because if that's something they consider acceptable, then I have little faith their player evaluation and development will rebuild the bullpen quickly, promote the right rookies, develop keaschall properly, land an acceptable backup catcher, get Royce back on track as a hitter, develop Brooks Lee into an impactful player, and get enough polish on guys like Bradley, Abel, Matthews, Festa, Raya, Preilipp to have a quality rotation.

Goodness there's a lot of things that need doing. It's far from impossible that these things could occur, but the more questions and variables you have and fewer resources you can access the less likely you are to have success.

[jmlease1]

5 minutes ago, AKTwinsFan said:

There's a reason why most of the players traded are playing better under their new managers because they are BETTER managers. Rocco didnt hold players accountable or keep any consistency in the lineups and batting orders. Pushing players and brining back players before theyre ready to play healthy has made more missed time from our stars. Players like Walley and Lewis could have been best served by sending them to the minors to work on their swings but instead kept them in the lineup to keep struggling, almost breaking Royce in the process. 

Are they mostly playing better?

• Jax: looks a bit luckier, not any better.
• Duran: not all that different, still awesome. 
• Bader: a little luckier at the plate, maybe a bit less in the field, but pretty close as a player
• Varland: substantially worse so far, but in a fairly small sample
• Stewart: was not good, immediately injured
• Correa: hitting better, defense better away from SS (position change might be most impactful)
• France: looks like the same backup quality player he's been all season
• Paddack: worse for sure, partly because the Twins beat him up
• Coulombe: quite bad for Texas, but also a small sample
• Dobnak: still in the minors, but pitching better than he did in Saint Paul

My scorecard would put that at: 2 better (Correa and Dobnak), 4 about the same (Jax, Duran, Bader, France), and 4 worse (Varland, Stewart, Paddack, Coulombe). Even if you could convince me that Jax, Duran, & Bader are "better" now that they've been dealt...that's still only half.

[rv78]

This:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/if-derek-falvey-believes-what-he-s-saying-the-twins-are-in-big-trouble/ar-AA1NFUxa

[bunsen82]

8 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Are they mostly playing better?

• Jax: looks a bit luckier, not any better.
• Duran: not all that different, still awesome. 
• Bader: a little luckier at the plate, maybe a bit less in the field, but pretty close as a player
• Varland: substantially worse so far, but in a fairly small sample
• Stewart: was not good, immediately injured
• Correa: hitting better, defense better away from SS (position change might be most impactful)
• France: looks like the same backup quality player he's been all season
• Paddack: worse for sure, partly because the Twins beat him up
• Coulombe: quite bad for Texas, but also a small sample
• Dobnak: still in the minors, but pitching better than he did in Saint Paul

My scorecard would put that at: 2 better (Correa and Dobnak), 4 about the same (Jax, Duran, Bader, France), and 4 worse (Varland, Stewart, Paddack, Coulombe). Even if you could convince me that Jax, Duran, & Bader are "better" now that they've been dealt...that's still only half.

Jax - about the same.  He was horrible to start out.  ERA is a little lower,  whip higher, strikeouts lower.  Duran still a stud.  

Bader has done better.  

Varland and Coulombe and Paddack have struggled.  

Correa was better France was the same.    

Bader and Correa are the only 2 that were better - Dobnak doesn't count LOL.   

It definitely appears someone was creating revisionist history.  

[Parfigliano]

Outman is not a MLB outfielder.  Even for the Twins.

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, LastOnePicked said:

No, but Dr. Jeckyll might.

Hed be awesome to heckyll.

[Doctor Gast]

Our core is so badly fractured & flawed plan (that wasn't spoken of). This is not a player problem although the roster was gutted; the return did practically nothing to help the team NOW. Cody you seem more optimistic about this fractured core than I. What is the plan? Just wing it? The plan has been flawed. Hit a bunch of solo HRs when we don't need them & SO when we do. Forget about fundamentals like defense, baserunning & bunting. I give Baldelli credit for trying to get away from this flawed plan. You can get the best manager there is, nothing will change. But because these problems are FO-based, nothing will change until you change who is in charge.