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Posted
Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

It’s easy for fans to read into the Twins' trade deadline sell-off and assume that payroll is headed in the wrong direction this winter. If the front office wants to get creative, they’ll need to balance talent retention with a willingness to shake up the roster. 

Some players hold more value on the trade market than others, whether it’s tied to contract status, performance, or overall fit with the franchise’s uncertain competitive window. Here’s a look at five players the Twins could move this offseason, ranked from least likely to most valuable trade chip.

5. 3B Royce Lewis
Team Control Through 2028

Once viewed as a franchise cornerstone, Lewis has struggled to find consistency at the plate. His 80 OPS+ this season underscores the offensive regression that started late in 2024. Still, there have been glimmers of life in recent weeks. Since August 17, he's batted .250/.308/.521, with four home runs in 52 plate appearances.

Trading him now would be selling low, but it could also serve as a “jolt to the core” move, the kind that signals Minnesota is trying to reshape its future heading into 2026. His value may rise or fall drastically based on how he closes the year.

4. OF Matt Wallner
Team Control Through 2029

Wallner’s left-handed power has been one of the lone bright spots in an otherwise bleak lineup. Behind Byron Buxton, he’s arguably been the Twins’ most consistent offensive force, with a 120 OPS+. The catch? He’s still pre-arbitration eligible and comes with four full years of team control. That’s precisely the kind of profile front offices drool over. 

However, he is the type of player who can age poorly when he starts to lose bat speed. Minnesota would have no urgency to move him, but if another team makes an aggressive offer, they’d have to listen. Like Lewis, trading Wallner could signal a true shake-up of the team’s identity. 

3. C Ryan Jeffers
Team Control Through 2026

Catching depth always carries trade value, and Jeffers offers more than most. His 105 OPS+ in 2025 proves he’s no slouch with the bat, and he’s steady behind the plate. With just one year of team control left, though, the clock is ticking. If the Twins don’t deal him this offseason, he’s almost certainly gone by next July’s deadline. 

A playoff contender desperate for an upgrade at catcher would be willing to pay a premium. From the Twins' perspective, there are no clear options ready to take over big-league catching duties, so it might be a tough sell if the Twins want to be in contention in 2026. 

2. RHP Pablo López
Team Control Through 2027

The Pablo López era in Minnesota has been a mixed bag. At his best, he’s looked like a frontline starter, but injuries (most notably, a shoulder issue this year) have dimmed some of the shine. 

López is set to make $21.75 million in 2026, the highest salary on the books for a team that has already signaled its intent to slash payroll. If he can prove he’s healthy to close out 2025, López becomes an obvious candidate to be shipped to a club looking for a rotation upgrade with some upside.

1. RHP Joe Ryan
Team Control Through 2027

At the top of the list sits Ryan, who has emerged as one of the American League’s most reliable arms in 2025. He’s under team control for two more years through arbitration, making him both affordable and highly attractive to pitching-needy contenders. 

Rival teams reportedly checked in on him at the trade deadline, with some social media sites claiming that he had been dealt. It's safe to assume those calls will come again this winter. While trading Ryan would be painful, he’s the Twins’ most valuable chip if the front office decides to lean wholly into a retool.

Twins Upcoming Free Agent Classes

Following 2026

Following 2027

Following 2028

Following 2029

Ryan Jeffers

Pablo Lopez

Byron Buxton

Taj Bradley

Justin Topa

Bailey Ober

Royce Lewis

Kody Clemens

Michael Tonkin

Joe Ryan

Cole Sands

Matt Wallner

 

Trevor Larnach

   

The Twins enter the offseason facing difficult decisions. Do they cling to their remaining controllable talent and hope for a quick turnaround, or do they cash in some of their most valuable pieces to reset the franchise timeline? If nothing else, the winter months promise to be as intriguing off the field as they are on it.


Do you agree with these rankings? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 


View full article

Posted

If 'both' the top starters go, the fans will revolt. I expect either to.. in the name of cost savings over all, Pablo. Team doesn't seem concerned with giving Pereda or Gasper many games behind home plate, but I still think Jeffers will go too. (Larnach likely gone as well.)

Posted

I'd put Trevor Larnach in there. I wouldn't say his value is at an all-time high, but he has sustained average production for the first five months of the season and stayed reasonably healthy. Trading him for a similarly experienced player with a different skill set makes sense to me since the Twins have a number of lefty hitting corner outfielders who won't make as much money. 

Posted

Absolutely hate that we have no idea what the plan is for this team. They should keep all of the guys on this list. Trade Larnach as he is redundant and getting expensive. Didn’t Falvey just make up for all of his past trade inactivity in one day? I get that this is all we have to discuss because they haven’t given us anything else but I’m sick of this narrative. 

Posted

We know that the Twins management has no idea -- or, evidently, interest in -- in cultivating the fan base. Butiif it should decide to try to do that, some candor about its plans would be a good start. So, if they trade Pablo Lopez, is it a rebuild or just a salary dump? Just tell us the truth. The truth coming from a Twins executive would be a lightning bolt. Credibility comes only with honesty. 

Posted

The Twins have already begun executing some plan - whatever it is from their perspective (Total rebuild, short term reset, salary dump/lowering expectations, some hybrid of options). We'll have clear evidence by what they do this winter with Lopez and Ryan.

My confidence that the Twins will be a legit contender in the short (2026) to medium term (2027-2028) is not particularly high given the track record of the Twins decision-makers over the past decade or so.

I will hope to be pleasantly surprised. by how it plays out.

Posted

I’m always hopeful they trade neither starting pitcher. They should have some financial flexibility since the new limited partners money will remove the cash flow drag from debt service. I personally do not subscribe to the theory that all of this is just going to be a cash dump because of the upcoming CBA negotiations, but I could very easily be proven  wrong. 

I would say that say that Larnach and Jeffers are the two likely trade candidates. Larnach is redundant, there are AAA outfielders who could replace him, and he’s getting expensive. I think the only way he stays is if he moves to 1B and the Twins to decide to stay with Keaschall as the 2B instead of moving him to 1B.

I think they would love to keep Jeffers but  will not be able to resign him because Boros clients like to go to free agency. The fact he only has one year before free agency though limits the market unless an aquiring team can both sign him and sign him to a longer-term contract. I suspect he will be on the team at the beginning and traded at the deadline unless the twins are in serious contention. At the end of the day, I think the big trade in the off-season is Larnach with Jeffers being traded if they can get some kind of a catcher back in either a three-way deal or in another deal.

Posted
16 minutes ago, Mahoning said:

We know that the Twins management has no idea -- or, evidently, interest in -- in cultivating the fan base. Butiif it should decide to try to do that, some candor about its plans would be a good start. So, if they trade Pablo Lopez, is it a rebuild or just a salary dump? Just tell us the truth. The truth coming from a Twins executive would be a lightning bolt. Credibility comes only with honesty. 

You-Cant-Handle-The-Truth.jpeg&f=1&nofb=

"You probably wouldn't react well to knowing the real situation if you knew it."  I think that's how that goes.

Posted

One can squint really hard and see a strong team for next year (assuming Lopez and Ryan and Jeffers are not traded), IF we get strong performances from a myriad of hitters who have, largely, underperformed in 2025.  I'm talking a better average for Wallner, repetition and health for Buxton and Jeffers, continued strength for Keaschall, and elevated performance for Lewis, Martin, and Lee.  Pretty certain Larnach is gone.  Not counting on Clemens, Gaspar, Julien, Miranda, Kiersey, Outman or Roden (either as cornerstones or part of the solution, but I'd take it if they were).

If you can see that group performing, a patchwork quilt of a relief corps, and some combination of Abel, Bradley, Ober, Matthews, Woods Richardson, Festa, Prielipp, Kendry Rojas, turning into a rotation and a bullpen, then I think you hold on to these guys.

I don't see that, and have to squint to the point of blindness.  And if that is the case, you target 2027 and substitute Lopez and Ryan for ML-ready hitters (2nd catcher, power RH 1B) in pre-arb as well as AA/AAA high starting pitching prospects, keep the payroll frighteningly low and play the kids all next year.

In that scenario, I extend Jeffers two years, aggressively promote our top prospects by mid-season (Jenkins, Culpepper, Rodriguez) so that by year's end we field a team of Jeffers/2nd catcher, 1B guy we get in trade, Keaschall, (or Keaschall goes to 1B when Culpepper arrives and Lee goes to 2b), Lewis, Jenkins, Rodriguez, Buxton, Wallner is DH.  Rotation is Ober, Abel, Bradley, Matthews, Rojas, bp now has Prielipp, Festa, Woods Richardson as long man, Raya, while keeping Sands and Funderburk, maybe Topa and some names we haven't thought of yet.

Is that a great team?  Probably not, but by 2027/2028 they are young, cost-controlled, but with experience beyond their years (which, last I checked, when coupled with a veteran pick-up or two, was the formula for our now-approaching-40-year last high water mark).

Too many here are calling this sort of thinking "giving up" or abandoning the fan base.  I don't see that as the case at all, but rather a strategy of realizing that the current core is not going to make it, and aligning the stars for a couple years down the road, while keeping the financial powder dry to add to that core when the next contention window appears.  Short term - yes, it stinks, but it is the most viable long-term strategy.  And it evaporates if you cling to the squinting.

Posted
2 hours ago, stringer bell said:

I'd put Trevor Larnach in there. I wouldn't say his value is at an all-time high, but he has sustained average production for the first five months of the season and stayed reasonably healthy. Trading him for a similarly experienced player with a different skill set makes sense to me since the Twins have a number of lefty hitting corner outfielders who won't make as much money. 

Larnach to me should be number 1 with a bullet. All of the other players listed have a likely path to a roster spot in 2026.

Posted

Has the prospect return lessened this decade? Are teams not holding out for the top flight prospects?

In the last decade trades of pitchers like Archer, Sale and Grienke netted really strong returns. Prospects among the top 10 in baseball. Multiple FV 55 or greater players. The elite reliever Chapman returned the best prospect in baseball. Does that happen anymore? Only one player moved this deadline had an FV greater than 50 in DeVries. It took a reliever with 5 years of control. No prospects moved last year at the deadline above 50. Augustin Ramirez might have been the top propspect moved. Garrett Crochet has been fantastic this year. The Red Sox needed to part with Kyle Teel who was ranked 54 with a low risk FV of 50. No other top 100 prospects were in the trade. Kyle Teel has been very good in his first 200 PAs and if you don’t look at BABIP, ISO and a very high ratio of singles it looks like he is going to be a good hitter. He is not near the level of prospect that were available in trades in the last decade. 

If teams are no longer able to get hauls for their prospects is it still wise to trade players with multiple years of service for the best they can get? I also wonder if teams trading for salary relief give themselves less leverage because the other teams know they need to move some players.

The Twins best leverage with Duran was that they didn’t need to trade him. They could have held out for Painter or kept him. It looks like they took the best they were able to get. It wasn’t enough.

 

Posted

Since Falvey is obsessed with “value” and the Pohlads are obsessed with saving money, it would seem that trading Lopez is a no brainer. I’d be ok with that if it brings some right handed power back, especially a 1B and a catcher. A team still needs a leader for the pitching staff and Joe Ryan at ~$10m is high value in that role, so he’s likely to stay. Falvey has pre-filled in behind Larnach with the approximately 10 LH outfielders he’s brought in so I expect Larnach is gone, which is no big loss. 

Posted

Agree with those who put Larnach at the top of the list.   They are not going to let Wallner go with 4 years of control unless someone makes an offer they can't refuse.  They will want to get a look at Roden and Outman  for the first couple months because they have Jenkins, GG, and Fedko at AAA and Rosario will probably be joining them.  Larnach would just be in the way of them auditioning all of the candidates who could upgrade the Twins OF by 2027 or even as early as the middle of 2026.

I think Jeffers stays because there is significant value to keeping a familiar catcher for Zebby / SWR / Festa / Morris / Abel and others become the main stays of this staff.  

Posted

For me, the idea of “team control” has been turned on its head.

How much team control did the Twins just trade away from their bullpen? These were their most effective relief pitchers. 

Adding up just Duran, Jax, and Varland, I count about 10 seasons’ worth of team control among them, Maybe the Jax-Bradley trade favors the Twins long term, but Jax as a strictly 8th-inning guy had a lot of value to the Twins. I tend to agree with people who say you need to look at the trades as a whole strategy together. And I admire the restraint of fans who can nicely say, “they didn’t get enough in return” and let that stand as their opinion.

Posted

The reason I would not put Larnach on this list is I seriously doubt he has any trade value whatsoever.  We could trade him for someone similarly lacking in trade value, whether that be a low-ranked prospect/suspect or a major leaguer with similar arbitration salary issues, and that's about it.  He's not someone to base off-season planning around, at all.

Posted
24 minutes ago, ashbury said:

The reason I would not put Larnach on this list is I seriously doubt he has any trade value whatsoever.  We could trade him for someone similarly lacking in trade value, whether that be a low-ranked prospect/suspect or a major leaguer with similar arbitration salary issues, and that's about it.  He's not someone to base off-season planning around, at all.

I could see Larnach fetching a lotto ticket, sorta like the Kyle Farmer trade in reverse.  He was likely to get nontendered and still got the Reds the #27 prospect from the Twins.  Better than nothing

Posted

Ryan and Lopez for sure.  Those are no brainers.

Very likely Jeffers unless they see a need to extend him (which I don’t think they do), although he might be more of a trade deadline type.

Also possibly Ober, but they might get more value from him by waiting to see how the first half of ‘26 goes.

Essentially anyone who will not be extended and/or will not be on the roster in ‘28.  Thus, they give Lewis one more year.   Larnach, however, is gone, but probably won’t return much if anything at all. 

Posted
6 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

The Twins best leverage with Duran was that they didn’t need to trade him. They could have held out for Painter or kept him. It looks like they took the best they were able to get. It wasn’t enough.

What isn't known (likely never will be) is whether any other teams had any interest in Duran or what offers were put forth by various teams. Apparently the Twins were happy with Tait and Abel. I guess you need to know when to hold.

The lists of players traded should be totally dependent on the offers. Larnach may be non-tendered and the 5 players from the article could all be in different uniforms as well. If any (or all) are traded, fans can only hope and wish that talent with promise is returned. Sometimes fit is important for players and right now the Twins roster doesn't fit. Can the front office actually accomplish positive change?

Posted
8 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I’m always hopeful they trade neither starting pitcher. They should have some financial flexibility since the new limited partners money will remove the cash flow drag from debt service. I personally do not subscribe to the theory that all of this is just going to be a cash dump because of the upcoming CBA negotiations, but I could very easily be proven  wrong. 

I would say that say that Larnach and Jeffers are the two likely trade candidates. Larnach is redundant, there are AAA outfielders who could replace him, and he’s getting expensive. I think the only way he stays is if he moves to 1B and the Twins to decide to stay with Keaschall as the 2B instead of moving him to 1B.

I think they would love to keep Jeffers but  will not be able to resign him because Boros clients like to go to free agency. The fact he only has one year before free agency though limits the market unless an aquiring team can both sign him and sign him to a longer-term contract. I suspect he will be on the team at the beginning and traded at the deadline unless the twins are in serious contention. At the end of the day, I think the big trade in the off-season is Larnach with Jeffers being traded if they can get some kind of a catcher back in either a three-way deal or in another deal.

Jeffers isn’t a Boras client.

Posted

Larnach by himself, or part of a package, to someone who could use a LH DH/OF with a career OPS of .765 against RHP. Maybe they can even get a decent pen arm or pen arm possibility out of the deal?

Everyone else should stay where they are and ownership should hand  about $30M to the FO for some additions for a solid BAT, a decent backup catche, and 2-3 pen fliers that might pay off.. Even then, they wouldn't match this year's payroll. 

Then start playing more of the top kids, and figure out who are the best options to the pen. 

Posted
6 hours ago, ashbury said:

The reason I would not put Larnach on this list is I seriously doubt he has any trade value whatsoever.  We could trade him for someone similarly lacking in trade value, whether that be a low-ranked prospect/suspect or a major leaguer with similar arbitration salary issues, and that's about it.  He's not someone to base off-season planning around, at all.

You can add Bailey Ober to that list (which I assume is non tenders) if there isn’t a way for him to find 92-93 MPH again. That version is worth $7 million. The one we’ve seen this season is a non-tender. 

Posted
10 hours ago, stringer bell said:

I'd put Trevor Larnach in there. I wouldn't say his value is at an all-time high, but he has sustained average production for the first five months of the season and stayed reasonably healthy. Trading him for a similarly experienced player with a different skill set makes sense to me since the Twins have a number of lefty hitting corner outfielders who won't make as much money. 

He has zero war and will cost five million. Who is trading for that? More likely a throw in or DFA, imo. 

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