What the Heck Do the Twins Do with Bailey Ober?

[Matthew Taylor]

Bailey Ober used to be one of the surest things on the Minnesota Twins roster. The towering right-hander had quietly established himself as a steady force in the rotation, posting an ERA in the 3s for three consecutive seasons from 2021 through 2024. He avoided major blowups, gave the team consistent innings, and was someone the Twins could count on to keep them in games.

But the 2025 version of Bailey Ober looks nothing like the one Twins fans had grown to trust.

Through 17 starts this season, Ober has already allowed 21 home runs. Fourteen of those came in the month of June alone, tying the most ever allowed by a Twins pitcher in a single month. His strikeout rate has plummeted from 9.2 K/9 over the last three seasons to just 7.2 this year. His BB/9 has climbed from 1.9 to 2.2. His average fastball velocity is down 1.3 MPH from where it was last year.

His ERA has increased every month of the season, culminating in a disastrous June where he posted a 9.00 ERA across five starts.

He entered June with a 2.43 ERA through his first 11 starts and looked like the same dependable arm Twins fans had come to rely on. But even during that stretch, there were signs that some trouble might be on the horizon. His velocity had dipped, and his swing-and-miss numbers were noticeably down from previous years. Those warning signs have now played out in full, culminating in a month of June where everything fell apart.

Ober and the Twins have pointed to mechanical issues as the cause. He’s described his delivery as “not smooth and disjointed,” leading to decreased velocity and general ineffectiveness. His left hip has been a lingering issue for much of the season, but both the team and the pitcher have said that it isn’t the reason for his struggles. Regardless, the Twins have been making mechanical tweaks in between starts throughout June, and the results have only gotten worse.

And yet, despite this steady decline, the Twins haven’t made any changes to Ober’s role. They haven’t skipped a start. They haven’t given him a break. They just keep sending him out there, where he keeps getting hammered. In many cases, he’s being left in to wear it in the name of saving the bullpen, taking blow after blow while his confidence erodes.

There are two clear options in front of the Twins right now.

They can continue on the current path, hoping he finds answers on the fly while struggling in front of frustrated fans and under the pressure that comes with being a Major League pitcher. That seems increasingly unlikely to work and risks further damage, both in the short and long term.

Or they can hit pause. Ober still has a minor league option available. He could be sent to Triple-A to work on his mechanics away from the spotlight. Or the Twins could place him on the injured list, citing the hip issue, and give him a couple of weeks to rest and reset. Whether the hip is the real problem or not, a break could help him physically and mentally.

Yes, there is no obvious replacement. The Twins are already down Pablo López and Zebby Matthews. Andrew Morris just went on the injured list. Any replacement is going to be a stopgap, likely someone like Randy Dobnak or another fringe arm from St. Paul.

But the truth is, does anyone watching right now have any faith that Ober is going to turn it around on his next start? His two most recent outings were his worst of the year. At this point, the damage being done to Ober himself might outweigh the value of keeping him in the rotation just because the other options are uninspiring.

Sometimes, you have to protect a player from himself. This feels like one of those times. Give Ober a break. Let him breathe. Let him work on things away from the pressure. What’s happening right now is clearly not working.

What do you think the Twins should do with Bailey Ober? Should they make a move or let him stay up and figure it out? Leave a comment below and start the conversation!

 

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[mac098]

As a guy who wants Ober to succeed, I think that he may need a stint on the 15 day IL to potentially set himself right. He can rest that left hip and maybe work on some mechanical issues while doing so. Or worst case scenario, we gotta send him down to be able to work on some things while down there. But I don't really have much faith the in coaching/mechanical team at that level as our starters we've gotten from them haven't really been working out (Zebby, Festa, SWR).

[thelanges5]

Agree on the 15-day IL. We’d probably have to call up Adams or Urena. Don’t see anyone else viable at St. Paul.
Pitching and working through it at the MLB level isn’t good for Ober or the Twins. 

[Doctor Wu]

13 minutes ago, mac098 said:

As a guy who wants Ober to succeed, I think that he may need a stint on the 15 day IL to potentially set himself right. He can rest that left hip and maybe work on some mechanical issues while doing so. Or worst case scenario, we gotta send him down to be able to work on some things while down there. But I don't really have much faith the in coaching/mechanical team at that level as our starters we've gotten from them haven't really been working out (Zebby, Festa, SWR).

I had very high expectations for Ober this season, but obviously his performance has been very disappointing. What you suggested makes a lot of sense. Maybe some rest and/or a stay on the IL will be beneficial for both him and the Twins.

[Rhyno006]

A baseball coach growing up likened pitching to a golf swing: on any given pitch/swing, there are so many variables that can be off that one small thing can make a huge difference in the outcome. That being said, if Ober's hip is bothering him regardless of whether or not it is "affecting his pitching" I would argue he should still be shut down for a short while and have a healing restart. Because trying to push through it clearly isn't working.

[DJL44]

Right now I think he needs to take one for the team and work on it in the big leagues. They don't have anyone better to use.

[jorgenswest]

If there is an injury concern he should be on the IL. Rest the hip and then get a full rehab in AAA. If there isn’t an injury then Pete Maki has to earn his pay and find a fix.

[TwinsDr2021]

22 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Right now I think he needs to take one for the team and work on it in the big leagues. They don't have anyone better to use.

IMO, this is the only response that makes sense. Skipping 2 or possibly three starts are going to fix the problem? or going to the minor leagues? 

[Craig Arko]

Better move him off shortstop. 

[mnfireman]

No matter how I tried to manipulate the rotation (on paper) between now and the All-Star break, Ober's spot comes up twice, though he can be pushed back a day each time by keeping Ryan and Paddack on regular rest and bumping SWR (once) and Festa (twice) back a day.

The two Ober starts would fall on the 5th, followed by Ryan on the 6th, and the 12th, preceded by Ryan on the 11th. A BP game on the 5th, while not ideal, could be done, hoping Ryan goes 7 on the 6th, the team has a day off on the 7th. Ober's start on the 12th would precede SWR on the 13th, the last game before the All-Star break, though I guess they could piggy-back SWR and Festa (on 3 days rest) and possibly not need the bullpen that day.  

The team could run a man short on the pitching staff and bring up a position player or bring up a AAA reliever(s) for two weeks and throw 2 BP games, they could spot start whoever they feel gives them the best shot to compete for two starts, or they could use the days off to maximize Ober's days off between starts. Tough choice's each...

[LambchoP]

Something needs to happen before this gets any worse. IL stint or AAA stint for awhile. Problem is, this pitching pipeline we've been sold on doesn't exist. The best option would be Adams who hasn't thrown more than 4 innings at a time. Next in line would be C Lewis, Raya or Dobnak, all of whom have era's over 7. Can you imagine how hard they'll be hit in the majors if they're getting shelled this bad in St Paul? The only other option are the two waiver wire guys Urius or Gilliapie, or however you spell them. These guys aren't going to solve any problems but if it's just a matter of covering a few starts to get Ober right, it might be worth it. Kyle Gibson is still available for the league minimum......

[jmlease1]

I'm on the ":send him to the IL to try and get right" train. The hip is an issue, but he mostly needs a re-set, and he's not really going to get the opportunity in MLB if he's getting his brains bashed in. This is easily the worst he's been in MLB and it almost doesn't matter what the issue is at this point: use the IL to get him a break and cite the hip. Give him some time to get a mental and physical break, and then work on the mechanics and give him a rehab start or two and let's try this against after the all-star break.

Give Adams a shot. Even if he gets his brains kicked in (and he might not), it'll be valuable experience for him, and frankly he might give the team a better chance to get a win right now.

Ober's been a good pitcher. I'm not letting a rotten month wipe all of that out. He needs to be protected from himself right now and the team needs him to work on things away from the rotation. It sucks that Pablo, Matthews, and Morris are hurt right now and Raya & Lewis aren't ready, but letting Ober give up moonshots isn't the answer either.

Give Adams a shot, see if he has a future. Give Dobnak a look; he can certainly chew up some innings (did a good job coming in for Ober in a game Ober shouldn't have started in the first place).

[Blyleven2011]

What to do with Ober  ???

Have him throw as a lefthander 😅 ...

Seriously I don't think anyone really knows , they keep trotting him out every fifth day and the results haven't been good ...

Does he have an injury or not , that is the question  , if he did wouldn't you think management would use that excuse on his ineffectiveness that he's pitching through an injury  ...

 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Barring pitching through injury, they are pot-committed to Ober, especially with no AAA depth at the moment.

I agree with other posts here: IL stint seems logical right now. The Twins are about 2 weeks away from throwing in the towel on the season, looking towards the future seems the best choice here.

[farmerguychris]

I vote we use that last option on him and send him down thru the All Star Break to work out the kinks.  Bring up Dobnak (who is bad, but is he worse than the current version of Ober?) - but at least he did look ok in his one MLB appearance this year.  He would have maybe 2 starts?  Short term pain with a possible passing grade for hopefully a long term better looking Ober post all star game break.  

[Doctor Gast]

I have texted from the beginning that our rotation is fragile. I'm not in the camp of keep overextending & playing our hurt players no matter what. For our SPs & RPs that means injury & many non-quality innings. I advocated limited innings by incorporating a rotating long RPs & spot SP roles. Ober had a sore hip early, was sick as a dog his 1st outing & compounded by death threats, yet he hasn't missed a turn. IMO, he should have been put on the IL to begin the season until his hip & mechanics are good.

Lopez has been our strongest SP & he has become our 1st casualty. As soon as Lopez went down, we should have immediately filled that void with an outside-inning-eating SP while maintaining the routine I suggested, so we can put Ober on the IL & try to keep our other pitchers healthy & pitching quality innings.

[LA Vikes Fan]

Well, I was just writing a post about how this won't be popular, but I would put Ober on the Il and sign Kyle Gibson. I then learned that GIbson has signed a minor league deal with the Rays. Well, there goes that opportunity. We can't continue this way. Ober is off, he needs a rest and a re-set. He can go on the Il and then go on a rehab assignment in AAA without burning his last option. It seems very unlikely that he will "find it" if we just keep sending him out there. Who takes his place? Here are the options:

We can IL Ober and bring up a replacement starter. I would go with Adams, but if Baker or Urena has actually looked good in AAA (the stats are not too kind), I could see them as a replacement. Maybe Prielipp or Paredes from AA? Yes, it will be a bullpen day after a short start but that's a better shot at a win than giving up 6-9 runs or more in 6 innings.  Still, a pretty lousy option. 

I would really think about going with a 4 man rotation, IL'ing Ober, and bringing up 2 of Adams, Funderburk or Ohl from AAA after I also DFA Wentz. The only times before the ASB we will have guys on only 3 days rest instead of 4 are this Saturday and Sunday, July 4 and 5 - Ryan on Saturday, SWR on Sunday with the next Monday off, and then again on Saturday and Sunday July 11 and 12, the weekend before the ASB, with the Festa and Paddack each going on 3 days rest going into the 4 day ASB break. We can add a BP arm to help with the strain, really 2 if we DFA Went for someone who might actually help us, and actually pitch an MLB starter each game the rest of the way until the break. 

I think the best option is to go with a 4 man rotation and call up Adams as a long reliver, and dump Wentz for either Funderburk or Ohl. This gives us the best chance to compete going into the ASB. 

[BrokenCompass]

I mean, the season is lost at this point so the Twins have a few options, all of which have been discussed here. Here they are in order of my preference. 

1. Just keep rolling him out there. Let him work it out and eat innings. 

2. Give him a break by putting him on the IL. I don't really like this because he's not really injured. He's just struggling. 

3. Send 'em down. This could be mentally deflating for the guy, or it could be a major motivator. It seems the most risky option, but maybe has the highest upside. 

[PuckettProtector]

Shut him down for the year. Twins aren't going anywhere this year and having him and Pablo healthy for 2026 is far more important. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I think giving him a break is the very best idea.  If they are even acknowledging that he has a hip issue, it's certainly a problem for him.  He needs some rest on the IL and reset time.  Certainly the minor league cupboard is pretty bare at the moment, so his spot would need to be covered by the bullpen and/or a spot start by someone we don't necessarily love doing that.  HOWEVER, the way Ober is pitching right now, he's probably no better than those players we don't want starting a game in MLB.  There are no guarantees, but he's probably more likely to resurrect the old Ober doing it this way than trying to pitch through it, which hasn't worked for the month of June.  

[Western SD Fan]

"Though he doesn’t think it’ll result in a trip to the injured list, Bailey Ober acknowledged knee and hip discomfort is playing a part in mechanical issues that have resulted in reduced fastball velocity" - Dan Hayes, the Athletic

I had to go look up the exact quote that was used in the article as there seems to be a game of telephone being played to separate the two issues from each other.  If this quote is to be believed, then yes, he has knee AND hip discomfort AND it's affecting his mechanics.  I'm no doctor, nor pretend to be, nor did I stay at a Holiday Inn last night so take my opinion for what you paid for it.  I suspect that the Twins staff already know the timetable it would actually take for Ober to come back to 100% and its likely season-ending (think Topa last year or Tonkin this year).  As many of us have commented, there are no more quality arms in St. Paul to bring up and I'm also suspecting that the FO also knows this but aren't willing to waive the white flag yet and put Ober on the IL or subject the pitchers in St. Paul to a task they aren't ready for yet.  With that being said, Ober should be put on the IL because continually tweaking with his mechanics to match his pain level serves no one.  It doesn't serve the team now and won't serve him later and will be used against him when it comes to arbitration negotiations in the upcoming offseason.

That brings us to what we should do?  If my suspicion is correct and the eventual fix is some form of season-ending surgery, but Ober can pitch through it until then, I'm unsure the FO will make a change until they decide they are out of the playoff race and then he will magically have season-ending surgery.  It's not uncommon for athletes to have nagging injuries that they play through that restricts their movement or their abilities. Again, using Correa's own plantar fasciitis as an example that wouldn't be fixed until after the season, but could be played through with proper treatment.  I do believe this is why they signed Gillespie, to eventually take over for an IL stint from Ober or a Paddack trade as a rotation placeholder until the arms from St. Paul improves enough to be given a chance at the ML level.  One final idea would be to use Adams with an opener.  Difference between Adams and the pitchers they have tried the opener idea on (SWR and Festa) is that Adams is used to coming into the middle of a game as they are currently piggy backing him with Raya.  Raya gets the start and Adams gets the 6-9th innings.  

[Mike Sixel]

I'd probably IL him if his body isn't 100% at this point. This season is OVER, IMO, and I want him healthy next year. 

As for the replacement? Call up a young guy and get him some experience. But then, I'm on the "see what we really have down in AAA/AA" train at this point.....

[purplesoldier4u]

To me, his stuff always looked hittable, but he has managed to be successful in spite of appearances. Maybe he has to adopt the Joe Ryan mantra of pitching inside when things are not working.

[chpettit19]

I'd IL him and try to get him right. Call up Adams and let him get 2 starts even though we know they'd be short. Or piggyback him 3 times in an attempt to save the bullpen completely those days and have 2 bullpen games between now and the break. Neither of those things are ideal, but I don't see any sign of Ober getting better. None at all.

Running him out there every 5th or 6th day to let him get his brains bashed in the rest of the season isn't an answer. Sending him to AAA has the same result on the major league staff and I'd prefer to have him working with the major league coaches and resting. If he needs a AAA start or 2 in a few weeks give it to him then.

You need to get Ober right if you want any shot at getting this thing back on the tracks this season and making the playoffs. I'll sacrifice 2 starts before the break and another after if he needs it to give them the best shot at that. So I'd IL him and let him rest for a week, assess him in the pen and either get to work on making mechanical adjustments or rest more and assess again. But I think now is the time to make the decision as you can maximize his rest with the break coming up. Calling up someone from AAA to make starts isn't ideal because Adams isn't stretched out and the others are struggling. But it's not like they're replacing peak Ober. They're replacing Ober performing the way we rear they'd perform. So let's have them perform the way Ober is while Ober gets right.

[mikelink45]

This is taking his ailment from physical to mental.  He needs a break and we can try some minor leaguers like Pierson Ohl.  This is just not acceptable unless management has given up on the season.

[Mike Sixel]

20 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I'd IL him and try to get him right. Call up Adams and let him get 2 starts even though we know they'd be short. Or piggyback him 3 times in an attempt to save the bullpen completely those days and have 2 bullpen games between now and the break. Neither of those things are ideal, but I don't see any sign of Ober getting better. None at all.

Running him out there every 5th or 6th day to let him get his brains bashed in the rest of the season isn't an answer. Sending him to AAA has the same result on the major league staff and I'd prefer to have him working with the major league coaches and resting. If he needs a AAA start or 2 in a few weeks give it to him then.

You need to get Ober right if you want any shot at getting this thing back on the tracks this season and making the playoffs. I'll sacrifice 2 starts before the break and another after if he needs it to give them the best shot at that. So I'd IL him and let him rest for a week, assess him in the pen and either get to work on making mechanical adjustments or rest more and assess again. But I think now is the time to make the decision as you can maximize his rest with the break coming up. Calling up someone from AAA to make starts isn't ideal because Adams isn't stretched out and the others are struggling. But it's not like they're replacing peak Ober. They're replacing Ober performing the way we rear they'd perform. So let's have them perform the way Ober is while Ober gets right.

that last part is key. Ober is so bad right now, it almost doesn't matter who they bring up to replace him (yes, the ERA might or might not be higher, but when it is this high, it doesn't matter if it is 5 or 6).

[stringer bell]

If the IL is an option, Ober should go on it. If the IL clears up the hip problem, a longish rehab might be in order. The numbers are not pretty. He is 68th of 71 qualified pitchers in ERA, third in MLB in hits allowed, fifth in runs allowed and third in home runs allowed. He looked to be fine a month ago, but he has collapsed.

I can think of several Twins pitchers who were effective and lost it, never to be close to what they once were--Nick Blackburn, Joe Mays, Carlos Silva, MIke Smithson to name a few--hopefully this isn't the same thing for Ober.

[TheLeviathan]

If nothing else skip him through the all-star break.  He'll miss a couple starts but maybe that will be enough to get him right.  As @Mike Sixel said....his replacement will have a hard time being worse.

[S Bart]

ADAMS call-up....agree with other postings. He currently has a 3.54 ERA...61 innings. ..56 strikeouts (only Morris has pitched more innings and has a higher strikeout total). The only Twins' pitcher with a lower ERA is Ryan. I don't believe that he even had the opportunity to pitch during his brief prior time with the Twins. Place Ober on a 15-day IL which would include the All-star break. 

[Sjoski]

Were there not rumors of death threats against him and his family...some crazed gamblers?

If the Twins want to model integrity, this is the move:

Pull him. Shield him. Give him space.

If it’s physical, treat it.

If it’s mental, support it.

If it’s mechanical, rebuild it.