How the Twins Could Pull Off a Blockbuster Trade For Miami Starter Jesús Luzardo

[Cody Schoenmann]

The salary-strapped front office could pull off a trade for the star Miami Marlins southpaw. Here's how.

Image courtesy of © Brad Penner-Imagn Images

On Tuesday, Fish On First's Sean McCormick published a piece proposing three potential offseason deals involving Miami Marlins starting pitcher Jesús Luzardo. McCormick's first proposal sent the 27-year-old southpaw to the Chicago Cubs for highly-touted outfield prospect Owen Caissie and fellow left-handed pitcher Jordan Wicks. His second trade proposal sent Luzardo to the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for outfielder Heston Kjerstad, shortstop prospect Griff O'Ferrall (which, holy s***, what a name), outfield prospect Austin Overn, and right-handed pitcher Kevin Velasco.

McCormick mocking Luzardo to the Cubs and Orioles makes oodles of sense. Chicago has been linked to the former third-round pick extensively the past week, an expression of their desire to acquire a frontline arm after fortifying their rotation depth by signing veteran Matthew Boyd to a two-year, $29 million contract earlier this month. Baltimore just signed NPB legend starting pitcher Tomoyuki Sugano to a one-year, $13-million deal. However, last season's ace Corbin Burnes is expected to sign with either the Toronto Blue Jays or San Francisco Giants this winter, leaving a 128 ERA+ over 194 1/3 innings-pitched-sized hole in their rotation. Adding Luzardo to a front-of-rotation mix of Zach Eflin and Grayson Rodriguez would be a savvy move by O's general manager Mike Elias.

Again, McCormick's initial two mock trade proposals are sound and rooted in logic. Chicago and Baltimore are contending teams with money and prospects to spend. Evidently, Luzardo will likely end up with one of those two teams, the New York Yankees or Los Angeles Dodgers, right? Right?! Remember how I noted McCormick concocted three Luzardo trade proposals? Interestingly, the third team wasn't the Yankees, Dodgers, or David Stearns's new-look New York Mets. The third team was, in fact, your Minnesota Twins.

A shock to the system of those residing in Twins Territory or admiring it from afar, crowds instantly push back against McCormick's notion. "They can't do that!" proclaim fans from Warroad to Lanesboro and beyond. "They'd be lucky to sign Spencer Turnbull after trading away half their starting infield," quips the most intelligent, well-adjusted individual in the Upper Midwest, as they disparage those who dream of a better future for the team they love.

Well, the Twins could reasonably acquire Luzardo. The Cubs' deal for him, after all, appears to be dead. First, however, it should be noted that McCormick's mock trade sending Luzardo to Minnesota looks like this:

• Minnesota receives: Left-handed starting pitcher Jesús Luzardo, left-handed reliever Andrew Nardi
• Miami receives: Infield prospect Luke Keaschall, right-handed pitching prospect CJ Culpepper, Minnesota's Competitive Balance Round A Draft Pick

In this hypothetical trade, the Twins would acquire a frontline starting pitcher at the cost of their third- (Keaschall) and 11th (Culpepper)-ranked prospects and a Competitive Balance Round A draft pick that figures to be in the mid-30s somewhere, overall. Admittedly, this is a hefty package for the front office to surrender. Still, if Minnesota were to acquire a healthy Luzardo who performed like the 2023 version of himself (131 ERA+ over 178 2/3 innings pitched), the price would be well worth it.

When discussing any potential trades the Twins could be involved with this offseason, one must bring up the most significant hurdle the front office faces: strict owner-imposed spending restrictions. Ownership has set the 2025 payroll around $130 million, similar to last season. The organization's current payroll is hovering around $142 million, meaning they need to shed around $12 million to appease the spending restrictions placed on them. The front office will likely meet these requests by parting ways with veterans Christian Vázquez ($10 million) and Chris Paddack ($7.5 million). If Minnesota can successfully convince other teams to take on these players' entire contracts, that would give them roughly $5.5 million to play with.

Luzardo ($8.6 million) and Nardi ($800,000) will make roughly $9.4 million next season. That being the case, the Twins would need to shed over $3 million from their books to make this trade plausible. This is where super-utility player Willi Castro comes into the equation. Minnesota could trade away Castro's $6.8-million 2025 salary, providing them the salary necessary to acquire Luzardo and Nardi and $2.9 million left to spend on a right-handed hitting corner outfielder or part-time first baseman.

Neither Vázquez, Paddack, nor Castro would be traded to Miami in this hypothetical scenario. The Marlins are a rebuilding franchise that needs more young, controllable talent than veterans on one-year deals. That said, the Twins could recoup some of the prospect capital lost in the Luzardo/Nardi deal by shipping away the three veterans, with much of the value recouped by a Castro trade. Acquiring Luzardo and pairing him with current frontline starting trio Pablo López, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober would provide the Twins with one of MLB's most formidable and deepest starting rotations.

Nardi could also step in as the team's primary left-handed starting reliever, meaning fellow left-handed relievers Kody Funderburk, Brent Headrick, and Jovani Moran could begin the season as depth options at Triple-A rather than being overstretched at the major-league level early in the season. They'd have a complete and very impressive pitching staff, and they'd still have Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, Edouard Julien, José Miranda, and the rest of their core of young position players around Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton.

Again, the prospect capital given up would be significant, and the front office would need to participate in salary gymnastics to make this deal plausible. Still, dipping into their prospect capital to acquire a frontline starting pitcher who could propel them into a World Series contender would be a shrewd challenge move by a front office hampered by significant spending restrictions.

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[Cory Engelhardt]

100% sign me up for this deal. I love Nardi’s stuff, and when Luzardo is healthy, his stuff is amazing too. He is also Pablo’s good friend in real life, which helps.

 

[mickster]

Do this deal in a snap........... 

[Brock Beauchamp]

The Cubs backed out of a Luzardo deal last night due to medicals. I don't know what that means specifically but it probably means a trade will be hard to pull off. If the Marlins disagree on the medicals - which apparently they did - they're not going to lower the price.

[Riverbrian]

4 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

The Cubs backed out of a Luzardo deal last night due to medicals. I don't know what that means

It means he would perfect for the Twins. 😎

[Whitey333]

If he's healthy as in passes his physical then yes make that trade!!  Of course somehow the Twins has Correa pass his physical to sign him yet he's hurt a lot.  Mentioning that we would still have Lee, Julien, Miranda, and Lewis is presuming they are major league worthy.  None of those players have proven they can play and be productive over the long haul.

[DJL44]

Trading away Castro would make the infield really weak this season with a gaping hole at either 2B or 3B, depending on where they play Lewis, but this proposal is a net win for the Twins. The Comp A pick would return in two seasons when the Twins offer Luzardo a QO as a free agent. Nardi for CJ Culpepper is a steal. That means you're trading Keaschall for 2 cheap seasons of Luzardo. They might be able to find a prospect as good as Keaschall in a Castro trade.

Miami turns this offer down, flat.

[sweetmusicviola16]

My bet is Miami is trying to sell Luzardo at the two season ago price.  I would love to have Luzardo, problem is he's had one healthy complete season in 6. I'd also hate to give up Keashell for 20 subpar starts over the next two seasons.

What is his salary for 2025?

[Doctor Gast]

I really like this article. This is the type of article I really enjoy. I've kept close tabs on MIA for years while Lopez was still there. I advocated a Luzardo trade last offseason which made more sense because we had just lost Gray & had doubts about depth where it could get awfully thin & like Cody E said he's a fellow Venezuelan friend of Lopez & would like Pablo, be a great fit. But that didn't happen. When Thielbar was fading I quickly recommended Pukk who was very cheap.

I put in a Luzardo/ Nardi offer at BTV earlier this offseason. The MIA offer is a just slight overpay but is common when buying established talent with prospects. I have cooled off on Luzardo because our rotation has improved over the year & Jax wanting a shot at SP would be a cheap solution to Paddack exodus. But I'm still very high on LHRP Nardi, I have MN #7 Gabriel Gonzales + Compensation pick for him.

[mickster]

30 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Trading away Castro would make the infield really weak this season with a gaping hole at either 2B or 3B, depending on where they play Lewis, but this proposal is a net win for the Twins. The Comp A pick would return in two seasons when the Twins offer Luzardo a QO as a free agent. Nardi for CJ Culpepper is a steal. That means you're trading Keaschall for 2 cheap seasons of Luzardo. They might be able to find a prospect as good as Keaschall in a Castro trade.

Miami turns this offer down, flat.

add Lee to the offer

 

[cmoss84]

A while back I mentioned going after Jesus AND Alcantara (because why not...it's the Marlins).

Sandy's salary is $17 the next 2 years with a 3rd year club option. Here's what I offered...not sure if it is enough:

Festa, Zebby, Raya, Miranda, G-Gon, and Julien. If we needed to add Keuschall to the mix, I'd still do it. 

[thelanges5]

Rolling the dice on a lefty middle of the rotation arm. I’d hate to lose Keaschall but I’m in the camp of needing more rotation depth. 

[Rosterman]

Money in 2026 would be a concern. Keauschall, is he a long-term Twins fit? Would Lee be a better trade choice if the Twins continue all-in on Correa and there is no place for the Lee to play?

It would be a fine trade for the Twins, no matter what. Two lefties, one a starter. What more could the Twins wish for Christmas!

[nicksaviking]

I'd be less concerned about injury risk due to the Twins having some intriguing internal arms to replace him should Luzardo go down.

But I also suspect trading for an established starting pitcher would require one of those depth pitchers instead of two infielders.

[jorgenswest]

The Marlins would be wise to trade him. His injuries last year should be concerning. He was first with left elbow tightness and then the rest of the season by lumbar stress reaction. How confident are you that the return to a starter’s workload will not also bring back one of the injuries?

[chpettit19]

No thanks. He can't stay healthy. We don't need more guys who can't stay healthy on this team.

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Trading away Castro would make the infield really weak this season with a gaping hole at either 2B or 3B, depending on where they play Lewis, but this proposal is a net win for the Twins. The Comp A pick would return in two seasons when the Twins offer Luzardo a QO as a free agent. Nardi for CJ Culpepper is a steal. That means you're trading Keaschall for 2 cheap seasons of Luzardo. They might be able to find a prospect as good as Keaschall in a Castro trade.

Miami turns this offer down, flat.

Zero chance they can get a top 60 global prospect for Castro. None. Keaschall is a lot better than you are giving him credit for

[dxpavelka]

In a heartbeat.

[Richard Kittelson]

I would keep Keashall and try to include Julien instead. I think Keashall looks like the answer at 2nd base.  Julien  at best looks like the 3rd option at DH behind Miranda and Larnach! Keep Willie Castro!

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Zero chance they can get a top 60 global prospect for Castro. None. Keaschall is a lot better than you are giving him credit for

You may want to tell Fangraphs that he's a top 60 prospect because they don't rate him in their top 100.

Jorge Polanco last season cost $12M in salary and returned 4 players including top 150 prospect Gonzalez. Castro is coming off a much more impressive season than Polanco and costs half as much. If other teams aren't valuing 2025 Castro higher than 2024 Polanco then the Twins should be negotiating a contract extension with Castro because he is very undervalued. It is rare that you can get an All-Star infielder for just $6M. The only free agent infielders I would rather have than Castro are Bregman and Gleyber Torres. Willi Castro is a lot better than you are giving him credit for.

[DJL44]

22 minutes ago, Richard Kittelson said:

I would keep Keashall and try to include Julien instead. I think Keashall looks like the answer at 2nd base.  Julien  at best looks like the 3rd option at DH behind Miranda and Larnach! Keep Willie Castro!

It's already an underpay with Keaschall. Julien for Luzardo would be a trade vetoed by a fantasy baseball commissioner. You don't get top lefthanded starting pitchers for a 3rd option at DH.

[tony&rodney]

I'm a little surprised on some views of Luke Keaschall. He really looked like he controlled his plate appearances last summer. The quickness of folks to agree with this trade made me wonder who has watched Keaschall, or for that matter, the current version of Jesus Luzardo. I was all over ideas and proposed several last winter that brought Luzardo and/or Edward Cabrera to the Twins in the past. Times have changed though. Not only has Keaschall shot up the charts but he did so while waiting for surgery. The guy can hit and he is a player. Meanwhile, the unfortunate has happened to both Luzardo and Cabrera; injury after injury. Miami would gladly take Kaelen Culpepper and Yasser Mercedes, both fine prospects, for Luzardo. I'm afraid the risk isn't worth it for Luzardo or Cabrera.

FWIW, Fangraphs and MLBTradeRumors project Luzardo at $6M with Baseball Prospectus at $6.5M.

[DJL44]

12 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

I'm a little surprised on some views of Luke Keaschall. He really looked like he controlled his plate appearances last summer. The quickness of folks to agree with this trade made me wonder who has watched Keaschall, or for that matter, the current version of Jesus Luzardo.

Keaschall looks good. Luzardo would get a multiyear contract as a free agent > $25M per season.

[Cory Engelhardt]

37 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

You may want to tell Fangraphs that he's a top 60 prospect because they don't rate him in their top 100.

Jorge Polanco last season cost $12M in salary and returned 4 players including top 150 prospect Gonzalez. Castro is coming off a much more impressive season than Polanco and costs half as much. If other teams aren't valuing 2025 Castro higher than 2024 Polanco then the Twins should be negotiating a contract extension with Castro because he is very undervalued. It is rare that you can get an All-Star infielder for just $6M. The only free agent infielders I would rather have than Castro are Bregman and Gleyber Torres. Willi Castro is a lot better than you are giving him credit for.

The most recent Fangraphs update is from June 2024. 
Mlb had an update a week ago. They put him at #63 overall.

Personally I do love his bat to ball skills quite a bit. Curious where he plays defensively, but I have zero doubt he is a major leaguer

[bean5302]

As @Brock Beauchamp mentioned, the Cubs just bailed on a Luzardo deal due to medicals. Given Luzardo's "stress reaction" (aka microfractures in his vertebrae), along with the UCL strain from last year, and I'd be awfully concerned about him.

2019 - (March) Shoulder strain, missed 2 months
2019 - (July) Lat strain, missed a month
2021 -  Punched a desk playing a video game and broke his pinky, missed 2 months
2022 - Left forearm strain, missed 3 months
2024 - (April) Left elbow "tightness" missed 1 month.
2024 - (June) Back stress reaction (microfractures in vertebrea) missed remaining 3 months

But also... why would the Twins make this deal? The organization is already $10MM overbudget, adding another $6MM for Luzardo seems unrealistic. Also, the team couldn't score runs last year, not really starting pitching. If the Twins are looking to add high end rotation arms to protect from depth issues, Luzardo has had only 1 full, healthy season in the last 6 years. I could see this move if the Twins were going to clear space by moving Lopez, but other than that, I don't see it.

 

[Mike Sixel]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

No thanks. He can't stay healthy. We don't need more guys who can't stay healthy on this team.

Agreed. No way I'm dealing legit prospects for an always injured pitcher. 

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

You may want to tell Fangraphs that he's a top 60 prospect because they don't rate him in their top 100.

Jorge Polanco last season cost $12M in salary and returned 4 players including top 150 prospect Gonzalez. Castro is coming off a much more impressive season than Polanco and costs half as much. If other teams aren't valuing 2025 Castro higher than 2024 Polanco then the Twins should be negotiating a contract extension with Castro because he is very undervalued. It is rare that you can get an All-Star infielder for just $6M. The only free agent infielders I would rather have than Castro are Bregman and Gleyber Torres. Willi Castro is a lot better than you are giving him credit for.

Odd, I thought he was in the top 100 on FG updated, but he is 63 on MLB.com.... 

[tony&rodney]

37 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Keaschall looks good. Luzardo would get a multiyear contract as a free agent > $25M per season.

So I guess you dismiss the injuries and are really high on Jesus Luzardo, but also not too keen on Luke Keaschall. I just curious about how many times you have seen each of these guys in the last year? You seem to know something about each of these players and have a strong opinion, which is fine. How did you come to that opinion?

[weitz41]

I like this proposal more than most I've seen this off season. I'm just not sure SP is what the Twins need. Nardi, is I guy I'd love to see in a Twins uniform. IDk the BTV # but I'd do Culpepper plus a throw in for Nardi alone.

[DJL44]

18 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

So I guess you dismiss the injuries and are really high on Jesus Luzardo

Luzardo is lefthanded, throws 96 MPH, and is 1 year removed from a 4 WAR season. One 4 WAR season got Jordan Montgomery 2 years $47M. Lucas Giolito parlayed an absolutely awful walk season into a 2 year $37M contract from the Red Sox. Market value for starting pitching is crazy.