How the Twins Could Pull Off a Blockbuster Trade For Miami Starter Jesús Luzardo

[tony&rodney]

10 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Good points T&R.  I certainly hope the plan is not just to sit still and run it back again with the current roster.  I think we have the talent to compete for a divisional crown or at least a Wild Card, but tweeks are needed to make that a greater possibility.  

Quero is probably the best #1 target based on his superior defensive ability.  Ford probably #2.  Rushing can hit.  On that we agree, and I think we each agree that Quero and Ford are far superior defensively.  I had always thought the Dodgers viewed Cartaya as the total package, but again, they are very satisfied with Barnes as the backup to Smith.  

With Turang and Ortiz at 2B & 3B the only reason I could see the Brewers going for Lee is if he would become their starting SS.  Adames won't be back so the Brew Crew has a HUGE hole at SS.  Would SWR be enough to get Quero??  If so, I'd make that deal in heartbeat, before even dealing Vasquez.  As much as I like Festa, I'd even give him up straight up for Quero.   

Ortiz is a real shortstop. He only played third base because Adames was entrenched at shortstop for Milwaukee. Turang would also be a very good shortstop but is more valuable and comfortable at second base. Brooks Lee projects quite nicely at third base for either the Twins or Brewers. I think the Brewers would like Lee but may take Woods Richardson. The harder question is whether Milwaukee is open to trading Quero at any price. He is a gamble because he is coming off of a shoulder injury suffered while sliding back into first base on a pickoff.

Ford may be available for a Julien or Miranda plus Varland deal. I'm not sure Falvey is willing to trade anyone due to his belief in his guys.

Hard to guess what the Dodgers want for Rushing. Pitching always, but i get the sense LAD likes Rushing's bat at LF/1B/DH/C enough to keep him. Cartaya has seen his stock plummet after a tough year with the glove and less than expected results from his bat.

Seems like the Twins need to take a shot for a catcher this year but I'm afraid Falvey has lost a sense of whether the team needs any movemt in their roster. Plenty has occurred with the Twins on the sidelines. On the other hand, a ton of Twins Daily folks seem like the talent on hand is fine. I don't see it right now. Call me skeptical but the team needs 2-4 moves to be competitive.

[TopGunn#22]

I'm on the same page as you.  The Twins are not bereft of talent.  They have enough to be competitive but their roster is too rich in some areas and woefully thin in others.  Unless you're a team like the Dodgers, with unlimited resources that enhance both their major league roster as well as their minor leagues a LOT of things need to break favorably for teams to be competitive year after year.  The Braves are probably the best example.  They got caught cheating with their minor league talent acquisitions and paid a price.

Like each of us has said, for us as Twins fans, it's going to probably take a minimum of 2 moves but more likely about 4 moves to clear the unwanted payroll players and add talent in areas where we are thin.  Yet the FO and ownership of the Twins just sit idly by as more and more pieces are removed from the game board.  Options are shrinking and we are left with the article I just read this morning on TD about what the Twins options are in the FA market for 1B.  It's truly depressing.  The Twins best options at this point are to hand the 1B job to Miranda, which I could live with more than the other options, or trading for someone like Yandy Diaz.

The primary reason we as Twins fans can hope that a trade for someone like Quero is that he's blocked by an All Star in William Contreras who is backed up by veteran Gary Sanchez (and Quero's shoulder injury to some degree).  The prospect of being able to deal for Rushing or Cartaya from the Dodgers are positive in that both are blocked by All Star Will Smith and his solid back up, Austin Barnes. 

Because Rushing has a loud bat, the Dodgers have been playing him at 1B and LF in addition to C.  That's stunted his development as a catcher but the kid can hit and LA could use him to back up an aging Freddie Freeman and supply some pop as a LF.  Ohtani owns DH so there is not much opportunity there.  Cartaya was once one of the Dodgers top prospects.  It appears he could be acquired for a much cheaper price than Rushing.  What is holding this FO back from being more aggressive?  

Ford is currently blocked by Cal Raleigh.  Mitch Garver is his backup.  While Ford would be a nice pickup, I think the Mariners are much more likely to want to hang on to him and say farewell to Mitch Garver.  Garver hasn't been good since 2019. 

All of the trades you mentioned, whether for Quero, one of the Dodger duo, or Ford, if there is interest from the teams, these deals should have been done at the Winter Meetings along with sending Paddack somewhere.  The Twins would then have had time to carefully work through a Christian Vasquez trade and other moves. Instead the Twins FO is like the kid who didn't study for the upcoming test nor finished the homework that is due and that never bodes well for the kid, or in this case, the Twins needed moves and decisions to try to bring some excitement to the fan base that we could have a nice spring, summer and hopefully fall of Twins baseball.

[Linus]

Luzardo just got traded to the Phillies. 

[sweetmusicviola16]

27 minutes ago, Linus said:

Luzardo just got traded to the Phillies. 

And the return wasn't a top 100 prospect.

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 minute ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

And the return wasn't a top 100 prospect.

It was according to mlb. Caba is ranked #81

[tony&rodney]

More and more signs point to the Twins rolling out the current roster. I'm not convinced that ownership has a strict $130M payroll as often is suggested and which I used both last year and now. Perhaps Paddack is retained. He would be easy to trade and useful on the team, but I fear Paddack in the rotation. 

Front offices and managers have distinct thoughts and philosophies on players and game strategy. This makes my preference for defense and better team speed pretty pointless versus the Twins choices. Each of us views separate ballplayers through our own personal bias. Julien was a sad hole last season. None of Lewis, Lee, or Miranda can be pointed to as players who put up a fair performance last year either. Yet there is a constant refrain that all of Lewis, Lee, and Miranda will lead the team forward in 2025. It seems like Falvey and Baldelli share this belief. As such it might be best to accept an infield of Miranda-1B, Lewis-2B, Lee-3B, and Correa-SS. There a few people (very few) ready to hand an outfield position to Emmanuel Rodriguez because he plays outstanding defense and is ready. I would play ER.  The Twins are quite unlikely to take that plunge, leaving an outfield of Larnach, Buxton, and Wallner. If management sees this squad as their optimum lineup, it is what it is.

Perhaps the only change may be a trade of one or more pitchers and a couple of prospects. I have to admit that the Twins "wait and see" and "we are listening" approach doesn't seem like a plan. Never a fan of billionaires, I am tired of any references to "owner imposed ..." The Twins have had numerous options and continue to have opportunities if they see a need to make a few changes with their roster. They will have the highest payroll in the division and quite a bit higher than Milwaukee. Money is not an issue. I'm entering my wait and see, but I'm listening phase too. Change can still occur but I have no idea how Falvey & Sons view talent or roster construction. 

[DJL44]

41 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

It was according to mlb. Caba is ranked #81

He's probably a better prospect than Keaschall. The scouts love his glove at SS. Plus the Phillies threw in a Yasser Mercedes caliber outfielder.

[Cory Engelhardt]

3 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

He's probably a better prospect than Keaschall. The scouts love his glove at SS. Plus the Phillies threw in a Yasser Mercedes caliber outfielder.

And the Marlins sent a catching prospect back.

Keaschall’s bat is far superior, but this kid sounds like he will be able to play defense. But really, one could argue, when you have prospects in the 60-100 range like Caba and Keaschall, they are probably about similar prospects in the industry. One team may prefer one to the other. 

[sweetmusicviola16]

47 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

It was according to mlb. Caba is ranked #81

I had looked and hadn't seen that. But relooked after your post and I was wrong. I'm still glad we aren't giving up on Keaschell as I believe he is a lot closer to him having an ML opportunity as opposed to Caba. Sometimes the trades not made turn out pretty good. I'm hoping that is the case here.

[sweetmusicviola16]

52 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

More and more signs point to the Twins rolling out the current roster. I'm not convinced that ownership has a strict $130M payroll as often is suggested and which I used both last year and now. Perhaps Paddack is retained. He would be easy to trade and useful on the team, but I fear Paddack in the rotation. 

Front offices and managers have distinct thoughts and philosophies on players and game strategy. This makes my preference for defense and better team speed pretty pointless versus the Twins choices. Each of us views separate ballplayers through our own personal bias. Julien was a sad hole last season. None of Lewis, Lee, or Miranda can be pointed to as players who put up a fair performance last year either. Yet there is a constant refrain that all of Lewis, Lee, and Miranda will lead the team forward in 2025. It seems like Falvey and Baldelli share this belief. As such it might be best to accept an infield of Miranda-1B, Lewis-2B, Lee-3B, and Correa-SS. There a few people (very few) ready to hand an outfield position to Emmanuel Rodriguez because he plays outstanding defense and is ready. I would play ER.  The Twins are quite unlikely to take that plunge, leaving an outfield of Larnach, Buxton, and Wallner. If management sees this squad as their optimum lineup, it is what it is.

Perhaps the only change may be a trade of one or more pitchers and a couple of prospects. I have to admit that the Twins "wait and see" and "we are listening" approach doesn't seem like a plan. Never a fan of billionaires, I am tired of any references to "owner imposed ..." The Twins have had numerous options and continue to have opportunities if they see a need to make a few changes with their roster. They will have the highest payroll in the division and quite a bit higher than Milwaukee. Money is not an issue. I'm entering my wait and see, but I'm listening phase too. Change can still occur but I have no idea how Falvey & Sons view talent or roster construction. 

This sums up my thoughts too. I believe what we see now is what we start the season with. I believe Vazquez and Paddock will be traded but not until mid summer if they remain healthy along with Castro at that time. By doing this the return could be slightly better and they get very close to the budget target anyway. Just my own opinion. I also see the infield as Miranda 1B, Lewis 2B, Correa SS and Lee 3B. Backups of Castro, Martin, Kiersey and Julien if he makes the team. OF of Buxton, Larnach and Wallner.

[tony&rodney]

5 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

He's probably a better prospect than Keaschall. The scouts love his glove at SS. Plus the Phillies threw in a Yasser Mercedes caliber outfielder.

Caba is 19. He did well in the Dominican League. Clearwater (FSL-A ball) was a little tough the first go around for him with an OPS of .493. Caba was signed for a big number and that is most of the reason he is on any list at this time. He looks good at shortstop. The only Rookie or A ball players ranked are always from the top of the signing pools in terms of dollars spent. It is a good idea to wait until a player has a decent run at A/A+ before getting too high on them. The Twins similar players might be Eduardo Beltre, Dameury Pena or even Yasser Mercedes.

The Jesus Luzardo physical that ended all conversations with the Cubs must have pointed to something amiss. The Marlins took two lottery tickets who are four years away for their #2 SP. The optics are bad on this.

I don't think anyone can compare a prospect who just came to A ball and struggled in a small sample to Luke Keaschall who played D1-AA baseball, putting up solid numbers in his age 21 season at AA. Caba may prove himself yet, but he has a ways to go.

[Mike Sixel]

47 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

He's probably a better prospect than Keaschall. The scouts love his glove at SS. Plus the Phillies threw in a Yasser Mercedes caliber outfielder.

We'll, keaschell is ranked higher. And is further along in development, so with less risk. 

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

We'll, keaschell is ranked higher. And is further along in development, so with less risk. 

Totally agree and I would prefer to have Keaschall but we should also recognize that there is a high probability Caba will be an excellent defender at a premium position.  Therefore, Caba has a high ceiling and the floor is probably a weak hitting great defender at SS which has value.  That's a pretty decent profile when a team is acquiring prospects.

[Mike Sixel]

41 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Totally agree and I would prefer to have Keaschall but we should also recognize that there is a high probability Caba will be an excellent defender at a premium position.  Therefore, Caba has a high ceiling and the floor is probably a weak hitting great defender at SS which has value.  That's a pretty decent profile when a team is acquiring prospects.

Barely top 100. Luzardo just had way less value than some people here thought. 

[tony&rodney]

40 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Totally agree and I would prefer to have Keaschall but we should also recognize that there is a high probability Caba will be an excellent defender at a premium position.  Therefore, Caba has a high ceiling and the floor is probably a weak hitting great defender at SS which has value.  That's a pretty decent profile when a team is acquiring prospects.

Exactly why the Phillies have no problem trading him. Philadelphia does not roster players like you describe, no bat/ good glove other than as a backup catcher. Think Noah Miller. Thus, the trade makes sense even though Philly was not looking for a pitcher. Miami made them a deal they couldn't refuse.

[tony&rodney]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

Barely top 100. Luzardo just had way less value than some people here thought. 

The physical that doomed the trade with the Cubs was after much of the speculation on Twins Daily. The Twins would have had to back out of any deal as well ..... or reduce their offer to the level of Philadelphia.

[DJL44]

3 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

And the Marlins sent a catching prospect back.

Keaschall’s bat is far superior, but this kid sounds like he will be able to play defense. But really, one could argue, when you have prospects in the 60-100 range like Caba and Keaschall, they are probably about similar prospects in the industry. One team may prefer one to the other. 

Caba has higher ceiling (comparisons to Francisco Lindor). Keaschall has higher floor.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Barely top 100. Luzardo just had way less value than some people here thought. 

Is the logical conclusion of them trading Luzardo for this level of prospect that his health is suspect enough to significantly reduce his value?  I just don't not what else to think given the value of cost-controlled pitching.

[Cory Engelhardt]

30 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Caba has higher ceiling (comparisons to Francisco Lindor). Keaschall has higher floor.

Maybe so. But Keaschall’s bat will play at the mlb level. So whatever works

[Schmoeman5]

The Twins could have easily put a better package together if they had any interest in Luzardo. Obviously they didn't. Plus a catching prospect that is sorely needed after the 25 season. Wait and see. 😄 

[tony&rodney]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Caba has higher ceiling (comparisons to Francisco Lindor). Keaschall has higher floor.

I saw a comparison of Luke Keaschall to Mike Trout. Please don't shoot the messenger.

Also don't ever expect a Mike Trout out of Keaschall. Baseball loves to compare teenagers to superstars. Thankfully all mentions of Emmanuel Rodriguez being Juan Soto were flushed a couple of years ago. 

We can watch Cabo this coming year via milb.com and gain a clue how he is progressing.

[Mike Sixel]

3 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Is the logical conclusion of them trading Luzardo for this level of prospect that his health is suspect enough to significantly reduce his value?  I just don't not what else to think given the value of cost-controlled pitching.

Yes

[cmoss84]

10 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Barely top 100. Luzardo just had way less value than some people here thought. 

Doesn't mean we shouldn't have outbid them. Feels like the Phillies pulled a Dumb and Dumber on the blind kid.

[dxpavelka]

On 12/19/2024 at 3:02 PM, DJL44 said:

You may want to tell Fangraphs that he's a top 60 prospect because they don't rate him in their top 100.

Jorge Polanco last season cost $12M in salary and returned 4 players including top 150 prospect Gonzalez. Castro is coming off a much more impressive season than Polanco and costs half as much. If other teams aren't valuing 2025 Castro higher than 2024 Polanco then the Twins should be negotiating a contract extension with Castro because he is very undervalued. It is rare that you can get an All-Star infielder for just $6M. The only free agent infielders I would rather have than Castro are Bregman and Gleyber Torres. Willi Castro is a lot better than you are giving him credit for.

If all of that were really the case wouldn't teams be beating down our doors trying to trade for a $6 Million  all-star infielder?

 

[dxpavelka]

On 12/22/2024 at 10:26 AM, sweetmusicviola16 said:

This sums up my thoughts too. I believe what we see now is what we start the season with. I believe Vazquez and Paddock will be traded but not until mid summer if they remain healthy along with Castro at that time. By doing this the return could be slightly better and they get very close to the budget target anyway. Just my own opinion. I also see the infield as Miranda 1B, Lewis 2B, Correa SS and Lee 3B. Backups of Castro, Martin, Kiersey and Julien if he makes the team. OF of Buxton, Larnach and Wallner.

You are probably correct in your speculative makeup of the roster.  However, I'd be shocked if there is no late winter surprise as has become a tradition around these parts.  A first baseman who could hit left handed pitching comes to mind as a want.  I know it's a pipe dream but until he signs elsewhere I'm going to beat the drums about Scott Boras being Pete Alonzo's agent and remind folks about how he seems to have some magic spell over the Twins that makes them shake up the budget numbers on a short term deal.  Just sayin

[DJL44]

8 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

If all of that were really the case wouldn't teams be beating down our doors trying to trade for a $6 Million  all-star infielder

I expect there will be a lot of calls about Castro once Bregman and Torres are signed.

[dxpavelka]

9 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I expect there will be a lot of calls about Castro once Bregman and Torres are signed.

at his price point they should already be calling